GLOBAL ECONOMY
US President Trump threatened a “massive increase in tariffs” and suggested canceling a meeting with President Xi Jinping. Meanwhile, investors priced a 95% probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut this month, with expectations for a December cut easing to 80%. The University of Michigan’s inflation expectations showed a slight decline, with year-ahead inflation at 4.60% down from 4.70% and five-year expectations steady at 3.70%, signaling tempered inflation concerns that could influence future Fed policy.
The British Pound traded at £1/$1.328, as it fell to a 10-week low, driven by a stronger US Dollar and investor anxiety ahead of the UK’s November budget. Concerns over potential tax hikes and rising inflation projected to hit 4%, double the Bank of England’s (BoE) target, have weighed on the pound. The UK’s fiscal tightening, including a prior £25billion increase in employer social contributions, and expectations of two BoE rate cuts in 2026, signal a cautious economic outlook. UK new car sales rose 13.70% year-on-year in September 2025, reaching 312,891 units as private consumers demand and business registrations rose. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill emphasized a conservative monetary stance focused on inflation control, resisting calls for tighter coordination with the government.
The Euro traded near €1/$1.16, supported by investors selling the US dollar following President Trump’s renewed tariff threats against China and the possible cancellation of his meeting with President Xi Jinping. Political stability in France, following the resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu and the avoidance of snap elections, also supported the currency. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled a pause in rate cuts after a cumulative 200 basis points of easing since mid-2024, citing balanced inflation risks and a resilient yet fragile economy.
China tightened export controls on rare earths and artificial diamonds and expanded restrictions on US semiconductor imports, particularly targeting Nvidia’s AI chips. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected ¥1.10trillion ($154.80billion) into the banking system through three-month reverse repos to support liquidity, highlighting persistent economic fragility. Although the World Bank raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 4.80%, concerns remain over a potential slowdown in 2026 due to weak exports and rising debt levels. The escalating tensions with the US suggest greater trade friction, upward inflationary pressure from supply constraints, and heightened market volatility, particularly in the technology and commodities sectors.
Next week, focus will be on key economic data and Fiscal policies as the Fed weighs rate cuts, Europe struggles with weak output, and China navigates slowing growth and trade tensions.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks fell as investors weighed delayed economic data from the ongoing government shutdown and cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices closed lower, decreasing by –2.73%, –2.43%, and –2.53% to close the week at 45,479.6, 6,552.5, and 22,204.43 respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, major stocks closed lower as weak industrial output and cautious economic data weighed on sentiment, despite easing inflation trends. London’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX, and France’s CAC 40 declined by –0.56%, –2.02%, and –0.67% to close the week at 9,427.47, 24,241.46, and 7,918 respectively.
The Asian stock market traded mixed as investors weighed China’s liquidity injections against lingering trade tensions and global growth concerns. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng Index fell by –3.13% to close at 26,290.32, while Japan’s Topix Index rose by 2.19% to 3,197.59.
Next week, cautious trading is expected as investors focus on delayed US economic data from the government shutdown, key labor market updates, Eurozone inflation and industrial output figures, and China’s trade data amid persistent global uncertainties.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Fitch Affirms Nigeria’s ‘B’ Rating, Cites FX Reforms and Reserves Growth Amid Inflation Risks
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a stable outlook, supported by improved FX liquidity, rising foreign reserves ($42billion), and ongoing reforms. Inflation eased to 20.12% in August 2025, down from 33% in 2024, with projections of 17% by 2027. Despite modest GDP growth (4.20% in 2025) and oil recovery, Fitch warns of weak governance, high interest payments (43% of revenue), and low non-oil revenue. Nigeria’s debt is forecast to decline to 37% of GDP by 2027, but fiscal discipline and policy consistency remain crucial to avoid a downgrade.
Tinubu Seeks $2.30billion in External Capital to Fund 2025 Budget, Refinance Eurobond
President Bola Tinubu has requested House approval for $2.30billion in external capital, $1.20billion in new borrowing and $1.10billion to refinance a maturing Eurobond as part of Nigeria’s 2025 fiscal strategy. The funds will be sourced via Eurobonds, loan syndications, and direct borrowing from global institutions. Tinubu emphasized that borrowing remains vital for infrastructure development and debt sustainability. Between 2017 and May 2025, ₦1.39trillion was raised through Sukuk bonds for road and bridge projects. Nigeria’s public debt hit ₦149.39trillion in Q1 2025, up 22.80% year-on-year.
World Bank Criticizes Nigeria’s Costly Revenue Collection, Urges Reform
Nigeria’s fixed 4% allocation of oil and non-oil revenues (excluding royalties) to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) far exceeds the 1.–2% cap in countries like Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa. The World Bank’s October 2025 Nigeria Development Update reveals that statutory deductions surged to ₦1.79trillion in 2024, up from ₦870billion in 2023, reducing distributable funds to Federal, State, and Local Governments. Some agencies received more from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) than several states’ total revenues and even surpassed allocations to key ministries like Education (₦1.59trillion) and Health (₦1.34trillion), raising concerns over fiscal efficiency and equity.
Nigeria’s Digital Payments Hit ₦384trillion as Cashless Drive Accelerates
Nigeria’s push toward a cashless economy gained momentum with ₦384trillion in electronic transactions recorded in July 2025, up from ₦280trillion in August 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Transaction volume also rose to 4.12 billion, reflecting growing public trust in digital platforms. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized the role of reforms, cybersecurity, and open banking in driving adoption. At the Nigeria Fintech Week 2025, fintech leaders highlighted Nigeria’s leadership in Africa’s digital finance space, with four of the continent’s nine fintech unicorns based in the country.
Next week, Investors will watch out for the CPI report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to further guide sentiments and shape Economic Outlook.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds ended the week on a negative note, pressured by broad investor selloffs across the curve. Overall demand weakened, pushing average yields up by 17bps week-on-week to 8.06%. Midweek sentiment was briefly supported by global rate cut expectations, but caution returned as oil price softness and fiscal concerns weighed on appetite.
Next week, we expect the Eurobond market to remain cautious as investors look forward to the Nov-25 Bonds maturities with the Federal Government seeking external capital to refinance the Eurobonds.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Nigeria’s Non-Interest Capital Market Hits ₦1.60trillion, Driven by Ethical Finance Boom
Nigeria’s non-interest capital market has surpassed ₦1.60trillion in valuation as of August 2025, reflecting surging investor confidence in ethical finance, according to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Sukuk issuances remain dominant, with recent offerings oversubscribed by over 700%. SEC DG Dr. Emomotimi Agama credited the growth to the newly enacted Investments and Securities Act 2025, which strengthens legal backing for non-interest products. The upcoming African International Conference on Islamic Finance (AICIF) will spotlight inclusive finance, infrastructure, fintech, and green investments across Africa.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity was strong during the week, closing at a credit of ₦3.39trillion despite declines recorded due to the net NTBills settlement and multiple OMO auctions. Consequently, compared to last week, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 8bp to 24.97%.
The Nigerian Bond market closed the week on a bullish note, with strong Investor demand driving yields lower across the curve. Average yields for short-, mid-, and long-tenor bonds declined by 29bps to 15.98%, reflecting robust trading activity and improved sentiment amid uncertainties in other asset classes.
Next week, we expect a stable Bonds Market with slight reversals from profit taking.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 2.37% to close the week at 146,988.04 and ₦93.30trillion compared to 143,584.04 and ₦91.14trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.29 billion shares worth ₦90.28billion in 138,177 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 8.40 billion shares valued at ₦115.50billion that exchanged hands last week in 115,801 deals.
On a sectoral basis, industrial goods, consumer goods, oil and gas and insurance indices closed positive at 4.23%, 0.83%, 2.90% and 3.69% while the banking index closed negative at -0.41%.
Notable gainers this week were Sovereign Trust Insurance PLC and Omatek Ventures PLC, while Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals PLC and LivingTrust Mortgage bank PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the current sentiments to persist.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 10/10/2025 | 03/10/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,455.17 | 1,465.68 | -0.72% |
| Parallel | 1,495.00 | 1,480.00 | 1.01% |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| ARADEL | 2,808 | 29,526,198 | 17.57 |
| DANGCEM | 4,470 | 26,871,038 | 14.22 |
| MTNN | 7,412 | 14,834,742 | 6.93 |
| NESTLE | 851 | 2,885,441 | 5.34 |
| GTCO | 5,287 | 48,295,399 | 4.64 |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| ELLAHLAKES | 3,876 | 160,595,254 | 2.36 |
| CHAMS | 3,555 | 141,639,696 | 0.62 |
| FIDELITYBK | 2,823 | 128,733,198 | 2.61 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6,234 | 110,648,254 | 2.89 |
| CONHALLPLC | 379 | 91,970,541 | 0.39 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| SOVRENINS | 2.75 | 3.21 | 0.46 | 16.73% |
| OMATEK | 1.22 | 1.37 | 0.15 | 12.30% |
| MANSARD | 14.40 | 16.10 | 1.70 | 11.81% |
| CHAMS | 3.85 | 4.30 | 0.45 | 11.69% |
| EUNISELL | 39.50 | 44.00 | 4.50 | 11.39% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| LIVINGTRUST | 6.09 | 5.20 | -0.89 | -14.61% |
| NEIMETH | 6.75 | 6.01 | -0.74 | -10.96% |
| UHOMREIT | 57.60 | 51.85 | -5.75 | -9.98% |
| MEYER | 16.75 | 15.10 | -1.65 | -9.85% |
| JULI | 9.90 | 8.95 | -0.95 | -9.60% |
DISCLAIMER
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