GLOBAL ECONOMY
The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 bps to 3.50%–3.75% in December 2025, marking the third consecutive reduction and the lowest level since 2022, though the committee remained divided. Projections signal only one more cut in 2026, while GDP growth forecasts were revised higher for 2025 (1.70% vs 1.60%) and 2026 (2.30% vs 1.80%), and PCE inflation slightly lower at 2.90% (vs 3.00%) and next year at 2.40% (vs 2.60%). Labor market data showed mixed signals: private job losses eased in mid-November, but November payrolls fell by 32,000, and initial jobless claims surged to their highest weekly rise since March 2020. Meanwhile, the trade deficit narrowed to $52.80billion in September compared to a $59.30billion gap in August and forecasts of $63.30billion.
The UK economy contracted -0.10% month-on-month in October 2025, following a similar decline in September and falling short of expectations for a 0.1% expansion. Services fell 0.30%, led by sharp declines in wholesale and retail trade and IT activities, while construction dropped 0.60% on weaker private housing. In contrast, production rebounded 1.10%, driven by manufacturing and mining gains. GDP also fell 0.10% in the three months to October, with annual growth steady at 1.10%, same as September, below forecasts. Meanwhile, the goods trade deficit widened to £22.54billion, the largest since January 2022, as exports slipped and imports surged.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warned that the EU faces an “existential crisis” over competitiveness and urged the European Commission to dismantle internal trade barriers that act as “self-inflicted tariffs” on goods and services, stifling innovation and investment. She called for urgent structural reforms, including completing the Capital Markets Union to keep European savings and finance within the bloc, and expressed openness to joint bond issuance across countries for defence funding. Lagarde stressed that monetary policy alone cannot solve these issues, highlighting persistent fragmentation and regulatory gold-plating by member states as major obstacles.
China’s annual inflation rose to 0.70% in November 2025, the highest since February 2024, driven by a rebound in food prices after ten months of declines and steady core inflation at 1.2%, its strongest in 20 months. On a monthly basis, Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly fell 0.10%, marking the first decline in five months. Meanwhile, producer prices fell 2.20%, extending deflation to 38 consecutive months, underscoring persistent industrial weakness.
Next week, we await the delayed US labour market report, including non-farm payrolls for October and November and the November jobless rate.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks extended losses on Friday as tech weakness weighed on global markets. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices decreased by -.193% and -6.63% to 25,196.73 and 6,827.41, while the Dow Jones Index increased by 1.05% to 48,458.05.
European stocks closed mixed on Friday, pressured by a tech-driven selloff in New York and weak UK economic data. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 indices decreased by -0.19% and -0.57% to close at 9,649.03 and 8,068.62, while German DAX increased by 0.66% to 24,186.49.
Asian indices showed mixed performances as rising Chinese consumer inflation reduced expectations for new policy support. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index decreased by -0.42% to 25,976.79, while the Topix index increased by 1.82% to 3,423.83.
Next week, we expect cautious trading as Investors watch out for October retail sales, November inflation data, S&P Global PMIs for December and speeches by Fed officials.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Merchandise Trade Hits ₦38.90trillion in Q3 2025, Driven by Oil Exports
Nigeria’s total trade rose 8.71% year-on-year to ₦38.90trillion in Q3 2025, according to NBS, with exports accounting for ₦22.80trillion (58.60%) and imports ₦16.12trillion (41.40%). Crude oil dominated exports at ₦12.81trillion (56.10%), while non-oil exports reached ₦10.01trillion, led by raw materials (+136%) and solid minerals (+30%). Despite a positive trade balance of ₦6.69trillion, surplus fell 10.40% QoQ as imports grew faster. China remained Nigeria’s top import partner, while India led exports. The data signals external sector resilience but highlights continued dependence on hydrocarbons and weak agricultural exports.
26 States Add $239million to External Debt in H1 2025 as Total Public Debt Hits ₦152.39trillion
Nigeria’s external debt stood at $46.98billion in H1 2025, with 26 states adding $239million in fresh borrowings, according to DMO. State external debt rose marginally from $4.8billion to $4.812billion due to aggressive repayments by top debtors. Imo (+$36.20million), Oyo (+$35.7million), and Kaduna (+$33.6million) led new borrowings, while Lagos, Edo, Rivers, and Bauchi drove $227million in repayments. Total public debt climbed to ₦152.40trillion in Q2, up from ₦149.39trillion in Q1, with Lagos remaining the most indebted state at ₦2.50trillion, followed by Kaduna (₦1.51trillion) and Rivers (₦327.55billion).
FG Sets Up Tax Policy Committee to Guide Capital Gains Tax Rollout
The Federal Government has inaugurated the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC) to oversee the phased rollout of new Capital Gains Tax (CGT) provisions, ensuring clarity, Investor protection, and minimal market disruption. The move follows consultations with SEC and NGX Group, which advocated for a data-driven approach balancing fiscal objectives with market stability and competitiveness. Chaired by Joseph Tegbe, the committee will issue transparent guidelines and engage stakeholders broadly. Analysts view this as a positive signal for evidence-based reform, reinforcing confidence in Nigeria’s capital market and long-term investment outlook.
Next week, we anticipate the release of the inflation data to further provide insight into the Economy and guide Investors’ sentiments.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Africa Eurobond market traded bullish this week as Investors priced in a likely US. Fed rate cut and reacted positively to Nigeria’s Q3 GDP growth of 3.98% YoY, beating expectations. Short-dated Nov 2027 and long-dated Sep 2033 bonds led gains, while oil-producing economies like Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt saw the sharpest yield declines amid rising global oil prices. Nigeria’s benchmark Eurobond yield fell 29bps w/w to 7.14%, reflecting strong risk-on sentiment and improved liquidity outlook.
Next week, we expect sustained interest in high-yield African Sovereigns.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices climbed to a seven-week high, trading around $4,311–$4,320 per ounce, supported by strong expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 after the December cut. A weaker US dollar and persistent geopolitical tensions (particularly the Ukraine conflict and Venezuela tanker issues) boosted safe-haven demand. Central banks, led by China, continued their steady gold purchases, adding to bullish sentiment.
OIL
Crude oil prices retreated sharply, with Brent closing near $61.12 per barrel and WTI at $57.44, down more than 4% from last week’s highs. The decline was driven by mounting oversupply concerns, as the International Energy Agency projected a significant surplus in 2026. Geopolitical risk premiums eased slightly amid peace talks in Ukraine and muted fallout from US–Venezuela tanker tensions.
ETFs
ETF flows remained strong overall. Equity ETFs recorded substantial inflows as Investors positioned for a dovish Fed stance, even as some year-end rebalancing caused outflows in other large-cap funds. Commodity ETFs continued to benefit from safe-haven demand, with gold and silver funds leading gains. Fixed-income ETFs stayed resilient, supported by expectations of lower interest rates and improved bond pricing.
Gold is expected to stay firm ahead of the Fed officials speeches, as Oil faces pressure from oversupply, though geopolitical risks may offer limited support, while ETF inflows should continue into gold and fixed-income funds, with equity ETFs buoyed by year-end risk-on sentiment.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Nigeria Moves Toward Same-Day Settlement as SEC Confirms T+0 Readiness
Nigeria’s capital market is now technologically ready for same-day (T+0) settlement, according to SEC DG Emomotimi Agama, following the second CMC meeting in Lagos. The phased migration T+3 to T+2 in November, now T+1, and T+0 by 2026 aims to boost liquidity, cut counterparty risk, and accelerate reinvestment while safeguarding institutional Investors. The reform spans NGX, NASD OTC, and Lagos Commodities Exchange, supported by CSCS infrastructure. SEC also unveiled broader market reforms, including digital transformation, commodity market rules, and governance templates, signaling a push for efficiency and global competitiveness amid recent volatility and tax policy adjustments.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦3.27trillion increasing mid-week owing to OMO maturities, despite a decline on Tuesday. As of Friday, System Liquidity declined by ₦1.01trillion to close the week at ₦2.72trillion owing to OMO and NTB auction settlements. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 3bps to 22.75%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 62bps to 17.81%. The Bonds market yields increased this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds increased by 118bps, 132bps and 66bps to close the week at 16.91%, 17.06% and 15.89% respectively.
Next week, Investor focus will shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Market where the DMO is offering ₦700billion across tenors and the Bonds Market where the DMO is offering ₦460billion across the 5-year reopening and the 7-year reopening.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market appreciated this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.63% and 1.64% to close the week at 149,433.26 and ₦95.26trillion compared to 147,040.08 and ₦93.72trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.37 billion shares worth ₦97.78billion in 110,736 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 6.61 billion shares valued at ₦113.22billion that exchanged hands last week in 109,590 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Consumer Goods, Insurance and Industrial Goods indices closed positive at 2.64%, 3.40% and 0.23% respectively while the Banking and Oil and Gas indices closed negative at -0.12% and -0.13%.
Notable gainers this week were Morison Industries PLC and Mecure Industries PLC, while Eterna PLC and UACN PLC topped the losers list.
We anticipate cautious trading next week.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 12/12/2025 | 05/12/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,454.41 | 1,450.43 | 0.27% |
| Parallel | 1,480.00 | 1,470.00 | 0.68% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VOLUME TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| ETRANZACT | 319 | 1,036,157,665 | 7.62 |
| ACCESSCORP | 313 | 518,669,716 | 10.58 |
| FCMB | 5,796 | 366,166,101 | 4.02 |
| CONHALLPLC | 5,870 | 213,404,971 | 0.86 |
| JAPAULGOLD | 1,838 | 213,282,156 | 0.50 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VALUE TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| TRANSPOWER | 441 | 44,289,754 | 13.54 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6,664 | 518,669,716 | 10.58 |
| ZENITHBANK | 5,676 | 126,830,337 | 8.17 |
| GTCO | 4,895 | 86,775,685 | 7.89 |
| ETRANZACT | 528 | 1,036,157,665 | 7.62 |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MORISON | 3.54 | 4.69 | 1.15 | 32.49% |
| MECURE | 29.80 | 37.95 | 8.15 | 27.35% |
| JAPAULGOLD | 2.10 | 2.66 | 0.56 | 26.67% |
| SOVRENINS | 2.90 | 3.40 | 0.50 | 17.24% |
| PZ | 40.45 | 47.00 | 6.55 | 16.19% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ETERNA | 35.50 | 30.20 | -5.30 | -14.93% |
| UACN | 96.80 | 83.00 | -13.80 | -14.26% |
| ETRANZACT | 14.00 | 12.60 | -1.40 | -10.00% |
| TRANSCOHOT | 172.80 | 155.60 | -17.20 | -9.95% |
| CHELLARAM | 14.65 | 13.20 | -1.45 | -9.90% |
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