GLOBAL ECONOMY
US inflation rose to 2.90% in August; the highest since January, while job revisions cut 911,000 positions and jobless claims hit a three-year high, signaling labor weakness. Consumer sentiment fell to 55.40, boosting expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut on September 17, 2025. Producer prices fell 0.10%, signaling easing cost pressures, while the federal budget deficit narrowed to $345billion, down 9% year-on-year, driven by a surge in customs revenue. Trade tensions escalated as President Trump granted tariff exemptions to allies and threatened an EU probe over its $3.50billion fine on Google.
The British Pound strengthened to £1/$1.35, steady amid weak growth signals. The trade deficit widened to £5.26billion; its largest since February, as imports hit a record high despite strong goods exports to the EU, US, and China. Manufacturing and Industrial production declined by 1.30% and 0.90% respectively, driven by sharp drops in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals. In contrast, construction output rose 2.40% year-on-year, marking its fastest growth since April, and GDP stalled month-on-month after a 0.40% gain in June, with services and construction offsetting a 0.90% fall in production. Over the three months to July, GDP grew 0.20%, while annual growth held at 1.40%, slightly below expectations.
The Euro strengthened to €1/$1.17, supported by the European Central Bank (ECB) hawkish tone and broad Dollar weakness following soft US inflation and labor data. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged through year-end, with potential tightening in late 2026. The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady for a second consecutive meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid stable inflation and resilient growth. ECB President, Christine Lagarde declared the disinflationary process “over”, signaling an end to the rate-cutting cycle. Updated ECB projections show GDP growth of 1.20% in 2025, up from 0.90%, with inflation expected to average 2.10%, slightly above the 2% target.
The offshore Yuan weakened past ¥7.12/$1, pressured by renewed trade tensions and weak domestic data. Consumer prices fell 0.40% year-on-year, marking the fifth deflationary reading in 2025, while producer prices dropped 2.90%, extending factory-gate deflation to 35 months. New Yuan loans plunged to ¥589billion; the lowest August figure since 2011, despite monetary easing. Trade tensions escalated with Mexico and the US, while China approved Brazilian sorghum imports to diversify supply. Meanwhile, vehicle sales surged 16.40%, and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) launched a local currency settlement framework with Indonesia, boosting regional financial integration.
We await monetary policy decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, along with UK inflation data, next week.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks closed higher as easing producer prices and growing expectations of a Fed. rate cut boosted market sentiment despite weaker labor market data. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, & Nasdaq indices closed higher, increasing by 1.16%, 1.64% and 2.03% to close the week at 45,927.10, 6,587.76 and 22,141.10 respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, stocks closed higher as easing inflation pressures and expectations of global monetary policy shifts lifted Investor sentiment. London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index, Germany’s Deutscher Aktien (DAX) & France’s Cotation Assistée en Continu (CAC) 40 closed higher, increasing by 0.82%, 0.41% and 1.96% to close the week at 9,283.29, 23,694.20 and 7,825.24 respectively.
The Asian stock market rebounded strongly, supported by improved Investor sentiment and optimism around China’s economic outlook. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 3.82% and 1.78% to close the week at 26,388.20 and 3,160.41 respectively.
Next week, cautious trading is expected as Investors focus on Central Bank decisions and key data from the US, UK, Eurozone, and China.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria Posts ₦7.46trillion Trade Surplus in Q2 2025 as Exports Surge, Imports Ease
Nigeria recorded a robust ₦7.46trillion trade surplus in Q2 2025; its strongest in nearly three years driven by ₦22.75trillion in exports (+10.50%) and a slight dip in imports to ₦15.29trillion (−0.90%). Crude Oil exports led at ₦11.97trillion, though earnings fell over ₦1trillion from Q1, offset by a sharp rise in non-crude exports like Natural Gas and Refined Products (₦10.78trillion). Manufactured goods surged 173% to ₦803.80billion, while Agricultural exports declined to ₦1.26trillion. Spain topped Nigeria’s export destinations, while China led imports. Maritime transport dominated trade logistics, with Apapa Port handling ₦17.90trillion in exports and nearly ₦7trillion in imports.
Nigeria’s Oil Output Dips Below OPEC Quota, Threatening Budget Targets
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell to 1.43 million barrels per day in August its lowest in six months missing its OPEC quota of 1.50 million bpd and reversing gains made in June and July. The drop, driven by crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and technical setbacks, raises concerns over the country’s ability to sustain output and meet revenue expectations for its 2025 budget. With oil accounting for over 80% of Nigeria’s export earnings, the NNPC aims to ramp up production to 1.70 million bpd by year-end, but experts warn that success hinges on deep reforms and infrastructure investment.
Nigeria Gazettes Sweeping Tax Reforms to Boost Investment and Support SMEs
The Federal Government has officially gazetted four new tax laws: Nigeria Tax Act (NTA), Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA), Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act (NRSEA), and Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act (JRBEA) ushering in a major fiscal overhaul aimed at simplifying taxation, supporting small businesses, and attracting investment. Key provisions include corporate tax exemptions for firms with turnover under ₦100million, a reduced rate of 25% for large companies, and a 5% annual tax credit for priority-sector projects. Multinationals face top-up tax thresholds of ₦50billion locally and €750million globally. The reforms, part of President Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda, take effect between June 2025 and January 2026.
Next week Investors will watch out for the CPI release from NBS to get more insight into the economic performance of Nigeria.
EUROBOND MARKET
Following the bullish momentum in the local bond space, the Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds also closed the week on a positive note, boosted by strong Investor sentiment across the curve. SSA Eurobonds followed the same pattern, with yields dropping in anticipation of the Fed. rate cut. Demand was particularly evident in mid to long-dated maturities, as Investors sought higher yields. This pushed average Eurobond yields lower by 15bps week-on-week, settling at 7.86%.
We expect yields to remain volatile, driven by expectations of a rate cut amidst profit taking.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity was strong during the week, rising to ₦2.09trillion due to Treasury Bills maturities. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (ORR) remained unchanged at 26.50%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 4bps to 26.96%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 45bps to 18.96%. The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for the short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bonds decreased by 41bps, 59bps and 1bp to 17.05%, 16.67% and 16.03%.
Next week, Investors will focus their attention on the Nigerian Treasury Bills market where the DMO is offering ₦290billion across tenors against ₦78billion maturing.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization increased by 1.12% to close the week at 140,545.69 and ₦88.92trillion compared to 138,980.01 and ₦88.77trillion respectively.
A total turnover of 3.19 billion shares worth ₦99.69billion in 132,711 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.12 billion shares valued at ₦90.30billion that exchanged hands last week in 118,018 deals.
On a sectoral basis, Industrial Goods, Banking, Insurance, Consumer Goods and Oil and Gas indices closed negative at 1.13%, 1.68%, 2.45%, 0.98% and 2.38% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were E-Tranzact International PLC and Regency Assurance PLC, while Union Dicon Salt PLC and Thomas Wyatt Nigeria PLC topped the losers list.
We expect cautious trading next week as Investors continue to cherry pick stocks amidst profit taking.
CURRENCY
| ‘(₦/$) | 12/09/2025 | 05/09/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,501.50 | 1,531.57 | -1.96% |
| Parallel | 1,535.00 | 1,540.00 | -0.32% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦‘b) |
| FCMB | 2,583 | 959,414,681 | 10.03 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6,602 | 155,068,363 | 4.08 |
| UNIVINSURE | 1,174 | 134,241,654 | 0.17 |
| ZENITHBANK | 6,949 | 109,621,180 | 7.25 |
| NSLTECH | 899 | 103,709,976 | 0.09 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦‘b) |
| ARADEL | 2,328 | 62,136,525 | 33.15 |
| FCMB | 2,583 | 959,414,681 | 10.03 |
| ZENITHBANK | 6,949 | 109,621,180 | 7.25 |
| GTCO | 6,016 | 63,675,802 | 5.87 |
| NB | 1,450 | 74,878,393 | 5.24 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| E-TRANZACT | 10.30 | 14.95 | 4.65 | 45.15% |
| REGALINS | 1.30 | 1.66 | 0.36 | 27.69% |
| CHELLARAMS | 10.50 | 13.30 | 2.80 | 26.67% |
| DAARCOMM | 0.86 | 1.06 | 0.20 | 23.26% |
| ROYALEX | 1.88 | 2.30 | 0.42 | 22.34% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| UNIONDI | 12.00 | 9.80 | -2.20 | -18.33% |
| THOMASWY | 3.00 | 2.51 | -0.49 | -16.33% |
| NSLTECH | 0.96 | 0.86 | -0.10 | -10.42% |
| ENAMELWA | 39.00 | 35.10 | -3.90 | -10.00% |
| MAYBAKE | 18.05 | 16.25 | -1.80 | -9.97% |
DISCLAIMER
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