GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US economy showed improved labor market conditions in January 2026, with the unemployment rate edging down to 4.30% from 4.40%, as employment rose by 528,000. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000, led by gains in health care, social assistance, and construction, although federal government and financial activities shed jobs. Inflation continued to ease overall, as headline CPI rose just 0.20% month‑on‑month (m-o-m) from 0.30%, and slowed to 2.40% from 2.70% year‑on‑year, supported by lower energy prices and ongoing declines in used vehicles. However, core CPI rose 0.30% from 0.20% m-o-m, even as annual core inflation eased to 2.50% from 2.60%, reflecting cooling shelter costs but persistent strength in transportation services and personal care prices.
The UK economy grew only 0.10% in Q4 2025 quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), as manufacturing and production rebounded from earlier disruptions but were offset by flat services activity and a sharp decline in construction. December data showed similar softness, with GDP up 0.10% m-o-m, as services provided the only support while production and construction both contracted. Annual growth slowed to 1% from 1.20% in Q4 2025, and 0.70% in December, reflecting a year marked by higher taxes, trade tensions, and cyber‑related disruptions. Industrial and manufacturing output weakened again in December after strong November gains, and the trade deficit narrowed mainly because imports fell faster than exports. Overall, the economy ended 2025 on a subdued footing.
The Euro Area ended 2025 on a steady footing, posting a trade surplus of €12.60billion from €9.30billion in December and continuing its long‑term trend of positive external balances. Economic activity strengthened modestly, with GDP rising 0.30% in Q4 and 1.30% from 1.40% year‑on‑year, supported by solid performances in Spain and the Netherlands, while Germany, Italy, and France recorded more modest gains. Employment also continued to improve, rising 0.20% quarter‑on‑quarter, with Spain showing strong job creation while Germany saw another slight decline.
China’s inflation softened sharply in January 2026, with headline CPI easing to 0.20% from 0.80% as food prices fell and non‑food inflation cooled, reflecting high base effects and lower energy costs. Producer prices remained in deflation for the 40th straight month, though the decline narrowed to 1.40% year‑on‑year from 1.90% as price drops in raw materials and processing moderated, while mining contracted more sharply. Meanwhile, money supply growth strengthened, with M2 rising 9.0% year‑on‑year to a record ¥347.19trillion, signalling continued policy support amid weak price pressures.
We expect more data releases next week, to determine Investor sentiments towards the global economy amid uncertainty on trade, monetary policy, and fiscal spending by major players.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed lower on Friday, as a softer-than-expected January inflation report failed to revive risk appetite amid persistent AI-related volatility. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by -1.37%, -1.39% and -1.23% to 24,732.73, 6,836.17 and 49,500.93, respectively.
European stocks closed higher as gains in banks and financial stocks offset weaker economic data even as UK GDP rose just 0.1% in the fourth quarter, below expectations, but Investors focused on strong corporate news and takeover activity. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 0.74%, 0.78% and 0.46% to 10,446.35, 24,914.88 and 8,311.74, respectively.
Asian equities rose slightly on AI Optimism despite losses mid-week, led by technology and artificial intelligence firms. The momentum followed Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s call this week for a comprehensive push in technological innovation and AI applications. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix index increased by 0.03% and 3.24% to 26,567.12 and 3,818.85, respectively.
Next week, markets will look to the Federal Reserve’s minutes from its last meeting for signals on the future path of interest rates, following the Fed’s decision to pause its rate‑cutting cycle.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Capital importation hits $21billion in 10 months of 2025
Nigeria recorded a major rebound in Investor interest, attracting about $21billion in capital importation in the first ten months of 2025, up sharply from $12billion in 2024 and under $4billion in 2023. According to the Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, the surge reflects structured engagement with domestic and foreign Investors, the development of over $5billion in bankable projects, sector-focused deal rooms, and the country’s first domestic Investors’ summit. She noted strong improvements in trade activity and ministry performance, including 93% capital budget deployment in 2024, and total trade of ₦113trillion in the first three quarters of 2025 alongside an 11% rise in exports. The ministry also reported stronger trade activity and improved revenue performance, while over 100 bilateral investment engagements, especially with the UK, which accounted for almost 65% of 2025 inflows, helped deepen Nigeria’s international investment ties.
States face rising pressure from higher Foreign Debt Service
Nigeria’s states saw their foreign debt service rise by 25.77% to ₦455.38billion in 2025, up from ₦362.08 billion in 2024, as mandatory deductions under the FAAC framework continued to eat into their distributable revenues and reduce fiscal space for salaries, capital projects, and other obligations. Monthly deductions were broadly stable for most of the year, settling at ₦36.14billion from August to December, while Lagos, Rivers, and Kaduna accounted for the largest repayments – with Lagos alone responsible for over 20% of the national total. Regional patterns showed the South‑West bearing the heaviest burden, followed by the South‑South and North‑West, underscoring how states with higher external exposure are experiencing greater fiscal strain as debt servicing remains a first‑line charge.
External Reserves hit eight‑year high on strong FX inflows
Nigeria’s external reserves have surged past $47million, their highest level since 2018, reflecting stronger foreign‑exchange inflows and improved FX management. Reserves closed 2025 at $45.50billion, rising steadily through December and January before climbing above the key $47billion threshold in early 2026. The buildup has been supported by higher export earnings, FX market reforms that boosted inflows, increased portfolio interest, and contributions from multilateral and bilateral financing as well as remittances. With reserves now on a clear upward path, the Central Bank of Nigeria is increasingly positioned to meet its medium‑term target of $51billion by end‑2026, strengthening the country’s external buffers and capacity to manage exchange‑rate volatility.
CBN reopens official FX window to BDCs with tighter controls
The CBN has restored licensed Bureau De Change (BDC) operators’ access to the official FX market, allowing each BDC to purchase up to $150,000 weekly at market‑determined rates, a move aimed at boosting retail FX liquidity and narrowing the widening gap between official and parallel market rates. While access has been expanded, the policy comes with stricter safeguards: banks must conduct full KYC and due‑diligence checks before selling FX to BDCs, unused funds must be returned within 24 hours, all transactions must pass through settlement accounts with financial institutions, third‑party dealings are prohibited, and cash settlement is capped at 25%. The framework signals a shift toward broader market participation combined with tighter oversight as the CBN works to stabilize the FX market and curb speculation.
Next week, we anticipate the release of Inflation data for January 2026 from NBS.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigeria Sovereign Eurobond market traded mixed to bullish during the week, driven by mixed data and oil price volatility. The week started on a positive note, on the back of improved oil prices. Midweek, profit-taking on selected maturities occurred as Investors reacted to the US Unemployment rate which came lower at 4.30%, signaling cautious Federal Reserve Policy stance. By the end of the week, the market remained bullish as Investors reacted to the US January CPI data. Overall, the average benchmark yield shed 9bps w-o-w to settle at 7.02%.
We expect soon-to-be released macroeconomic data and Fed meeting minutes to influence market sentiments next week.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold extended its rebound, rising about 2.44% to $5,042/oz on Feb 13, recovering from Thursday’s sharp sell‑off as softer‑than‑expected US inflation pushed Treasury yields and the dollar lower, boosting safe‑haven demand. Over the past month, gold is up 9%, and roughly 75% year‑on‑year, supported by central‑bank buying and ongoing geopolitical risks.
OIL
Oil prices remained under pressure, with Brent closing at $67.75/bbl and WTI near $62.62/bbl, both heading for a second straight weekly decline amid deepening oversupply concerns. The IEA warned that the global oil market could face a record surplus of around 3.70 mbpd in 2026, while rising inventories and eased US–Iran tensions kept prices on the defensive
ETF
ETF flows tilted strongly toward equities, with almost $9.40billion in daily inflows on Feb 12, while fixed‑income ETFs attracted $1.24billion, signalling continued yield‑seeking behaviour. Commodity ETFs, however, saw heavy outflows of around $877million, driven largely by redemptions from precious‑metals products.
Gold is likely to stay supported by softer inflation expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, and central‑bank demand, while Oil is expected to remain range‑bound to lower, with oversupply signals dominating sentiment unless geopolitical risk flares up. ETFs should maintain positive flows into equities and fixed income, while commodities may see mixed activity.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week. Liquidity began the week at ₦2.75trillion, supported by sizable placements at the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) window and primary market repayment inflows, despite marginal borrowing at the Standard Lending Facility (SLF). By the close of the week, system liquidity settled at a surplus of ₦4.32 trillion. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) was steady at 22.50%, while the Overnight Rate fell by 3bps to 22.78%.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed on a positive note this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 6.16% to close the week at 182,313.08 and ₦117.03trillion compared to 171,727.49 and ₦110.24trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.65 billion shares worth ₦193.33billion in 286,751 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.86 billion shares valued at ₦128.58billion that exchanged hands last week in 240,463 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major indices closed positive including the Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods, Oil and Gas and Insurance indices, which rose by 5.84%, 2.95%, 7.09%, 11.40% and 0.65%, respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Zichis Agro Allied Industries Plc and Union Dicon Salt Plc while Abbey Mortgage Bank Plc and Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc topped the losers list.
We anticipate mixed sentiments next week as portfolio reallocation continues, and slight profit taking on the back of the recent rally.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 13/02/2026 | 06/02/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,355.42 | 1,366.20 | -0.79% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,440.00 | -0.28% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 6.72 | 10.80 | 4.08 | 60.71% |
| UNIONDICON | 13.05 | 20.90 | 7.85 | 60.15% |
| DAARCOMM | 1.90 | 2.95 | 1.05 | 55.26% |
| FTGINSURE | 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 50.00% |
| JOHNHOLT | 7.30 | 10.60 | 3.30 | 45.21% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ABBEYBDS | 14.95 | 11.00 | -3.95 | -26.42% |
| SOVRENINS | 3.38 | 2.80 | -0.58 | -17.16% |
| ETI | 51.90 | 45.00 | -6.90 | -13.29% |
| SKYAVN | 152.70 | 135.00 | -17.70 | -11.59% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 5.40 | 4.80 | -0.60 | -11.11% |
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