GLOBAL ECONOMY
Global economic conditions in the week were dominated by severe geopolitical instability, energy price shock, and sharp volatility across global financial markets. The escalation of the US–Israel–Iran conflict significantly disrupted global supply chains, particularly following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil and LNG shipments. Oil markets responded violently to these disruptions. Brent crude surpassed $100/barrel for the second time as Governments scrambled to contain the shock. The IEA announced a historic 400‑million‑barrel coordinated release, the US committed 172 million barrels from its strategic reserves, and sanctions on Russian oil at sea were temporarily lifted to boost global supply.
The US economic data showed mixed momentum at the start of 2026. GDP growth slowed sharply to an annualized 0.70% in Q4 2025, from 4.40% in the previous quarter and lower than an estimate of 1.40% due to weaker consumer spending, government outlays, and investment. Meanwhile, month-on-month (m-o-m), headline CPI rose 0.30% in February from 0.20%, reflecting stronger energy and food prices, while core CPI declined to 0.20% from 0.30%, keeping annual core inflation steady at 2.50%. Energy‑driven price pressures are expected to intensify further in March due to the Iran‑related commodity shock. Trade performance was mixed: imports fell 0.70% in January, driven by declines in pharmaceuticals, vehicles, and gold, while exports surged 5.50%, supported by strong sales of precious metals, computers, and aircraft.
UK GDP stalled in January 2026, showing 0% growth m-o-m following a 0.10% rise in December and falling short of the expected 0.20% increase. Services output was flat, with notable weakness in administrative and support services, while wholesale and retail trade (including motor vehicle repair) provided the main positive offset. Production activity declined by 0.10%, extending December’s 0.90% fall, weighed down by contractions in mining and quarrying as well as electricity and gas supply, partially offset by gains in water supply and marginal manufacturing growth as Construction output edged up 0.20%. On a yearly basis, GDP expanded 0.80%, and growth in the three months to January stood at 0.20%.
Eurozone industrial production fell sharply by 1.50% m-o-m in January 2026, deepening December’s revised 0.60% decline and missing expectations for a 0.60% rebound. The drop was driven by broad-based weakness across major categories, including non‑durable goods (-6%), capital goods (-2.30%), durable goods (-1.90%), and intermediate goods (-1.90%). Among major economies, output declined in Germany (-1.30%), Italy (-0.60%), and Spain (-0.50%), rose in France (+0.50%), and was unchanged in the Netherlands. On an annual basis, industrial production fell 1.20% year-on-year, marking its first yearly contraction in a year and undershooting expectations of 1.40% growth.
China’s inflation accelerated in February, with headline CPI rising 1.30% year‑on‑year from 0.20%, driven by food inflation and a pickup in non‑food categories. Core inflation climbed to 1.80%, its strongest since 2019, while monthly CPI registered a 1% increase. Producer price deflation eased as PPI contracted 0.90% year‑on‑year, an improvement from January’s 1.40% decline, supported by firmer raw material and processed goods prices while monthly PPI remained at 0.40%. China also recorded a $213.60billion trade surplus in January–February, exceeding expectations as exports surged 21.81%, with strong growth to Asia, the EU, and Australia, while shipments to the US fell. Imports increased 19.80%, boosted by crude oil, copper concentrates, and coal.
Next week, we expect the Middle East war and its impact on energy supply to shape markets and rate decisions by major Central Banks.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities finished a rough week lower amid the intensifying US-Isreal-Iran conflict and persistent energy market volatility. This pressure drove Investors toward the Dollar, pushing major indices toward a third straight week of losses. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 1.26%, -1.60% and -1.99% to 22,105.36, 6,632.19 and 46,558.47 respectively.
European and UK stocks closed lower as Investors digested disappointing UK GDP data and assessed the impact of escalating Middle East tensions on Central Banks’ monetary policies ahead of next week’s meeting. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by -0.23%, -0.61% and -1.03% to 10,261.15, 23,447.29 and 7,911.53 respectively.
Asain stocks closed lower week-on-week as mainland stocks struggled for traction amid uncertainties from the Iran war, which dampened risk sentiments. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix index decreased by -1.13% and -2.36% to 25,465.6 and 3,629.03 respectively.
Next week, we expect geopolitical developments to remain the dominant driver of global markets, following the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices and the heightened global inflation outlook.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
FAAC Shares ₦1.89trillion for February as Revenues Drop Sharply Across Key Tax Streams
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared ₦1.89trillion for February 2026, consisting of ₦1.27trillion statutory revenue and ₦619.12billion VAT, after total inflows of ₦2.23trillion and deductions of ₦77.30billion (collection costs) and ₦259.08billion (transfers/refunds). The Federal Government received ₦675.09billion, States got ₦651.53billion, LGAs received ₦456.47billion, while ₦110.95billion went to oil‑producing states as 13% derivation. Key revenue lines weakened month‑on‑month, with gross statutory revenue falling to ₦1.56trillion (down ₦395.14billion) and VAT dropping to ₦668.45billion from ₦1.08trillion, although oil and gas royalties and excise duties rose slightly.
Nigerian Crude Jumps Above $100 as Global Oil Crisis Deepens, but Output Slumps to 1.31mbpd
Nigerian crude prices surged past $100 per barrel after hitting $120 earlier in the week amid war-driven supply shocks, the Strait of Hormuz blockade threat and the Trump administration’s temporary sanction waiver on stranded Russian crude, even as Brent traded at $101 and WTI at $95. Despite bullish global prices, Nigeria’s February crude output fell 10.69% to 1.31mbpd, missing its 1.50m bpd OPEC quota by roughly 190,000bpd, limiting revenue gains. Domestically, PMS consumption dropped to 56.90 million litres/day in February from 60.20 million litres/day, with Dangote Refinery’s petrol supply falling to 36.50 million litres/day as state-owned refineries remained inactive.
Nigeria Spent $5.21billion on External Debt Service in 2025 as Repayments Consumed 72% of FX Outflows
Nigeria spent $5.21billion on external debt service in 2025 up 11.90% from $4.66billion in 2024 and accounting for 72.11% of the country’s $7.22billion total international payments, despite overall outflows declining 2.90%. Repayments were sharply uneven, peaking at $1.31billion in November, with other major outflows including $632.36million in March, $557.79million in April and $542.70million in September. In January 2026, debt service dropped year‑on‑year to $256.81million from $540.67million (down 52.50%) but rose month‑on‑month from $205.73million in December 2025, making up 63.40% of external payments and underscoring how debt obligations continue to dominate Nigeria’s FX outflows.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor the February inflation report from the NBS, as the release will provide critical guidance for market sentiment and offer deeper insights into the near‑term macroeconomic outlook.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market turned bearish last week, driven largely by heightened global risk aversion after the latest US–Israel strikes on Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which triggered broad sell‑offs across emerging‑market and African sovereign bonds. Average yields on Nigerian Eurobonds rose to around 7.17% from 6.98% the previous week, reflecting rising risk premiums. The weakness mirrored wider Sub‑Saharan African Eurobond declines, as global Investors shifted into safer assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Next week, Nigeria’s Eurobond market is expected to trade with a cautious, risk‑off tone, with yields likely to stay elevated due to sustained geopolitical uncertainty, though domestic fundamentals could support a rebound once global sentiment improves.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded firm but volatile, fluctuating within the $5,050–$5,200/oz band through the week. As of March 13, spot gold hovered around $5,175/oz, supported by persistent safe‑haven flows amid the intensifying US–Israel–Iran conflict. Prices softened mid‑week due to a stronger Dollar and profit‑taking, but geopolitical risk kept downside limited.
OIL
Oil markets saw another major risk‑premium‑driven rally, with crude benchmarks surging on escalating disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz: Brent closed the week at $103.14/bbl, firmly above the $100 threshold despite earlier delines, while WTI settled at $98.71/bbl. Tanker traffic through the Strait remains effectively at a standstill, amplifying fears of the largest supply disruption since the pandemic. Global crude flows through the corridor have collapsed, and multiple tanker attacks pushed prices sharply higher.
ETF
ETF flows remained generally robust despite market volatility, driven primarily by strong inflows into bond ETFs, while commodity ETFs saw short-term outflows of $2.60billion after prior strong inflows. Commodity ETF interest remains elevated overall, with inflows heavily concentrated in gold-linked ETFs, reflecting safe-haven repositioning.
Gold is expected to remain steady with a mild upward bias, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and safe‑haven demand despite counter‑pressure from a firmer dollar and elevated yields. Oil markets should stay highly volatile, with risk premia elevated as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively immobilized and tanker attacks continue. ETF flows are expected to remain resilient, with continued strength in bond ETFs as Investors hedge against volatility, while commodity ETFs, especially gold‑linked products may see renewed interest if geopolitical risks persist.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
NTB Auction Oversubscribed as DMO Sells ₦933.92billion, 364‑Day Stop Rate Slips to 16.72%
The Nigeria Treasury Bills held on Wednesday 11th March 2026. The auction recorded strong demand, particularly on the long‑tenor (364‑day) bill, with total subscriptions reaching ₦2.78trillion, representing 3.27x the total offer.
The bid‑to‑cover ratio stood at 2.98x, while total allotment printed at ₦933.92billion, exceeding the initial offer of ₦850billion indicating an oversale of ₦83.93billion. However, this allotment was lower than the ₦1.01trillion allotted at the previous auction. Stop rates for the 91‑day and 182‑day bills were unchanged at 15.95% and 16.65%, while the 364‑day stop rate declined slightly by 1bp to 16.72%.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦5.37trillion, increasing mid-week by ₦1.67trillion to ₦7.06trillion owing to net OMO settlement.
Friday saw a decline with Liquidity shrinking to ₦6.62trillion. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00% while the Overnight Rate increased by 12bps at 22.33%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 41bps to 17.41%, while the Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for the short-tenor decreased by 2bps to 16.00% while the mid-tenor and the long-tenor bonds increased by 37bps and 34bps to 16.27% and 15.25% respectively.
Next week, attention will return to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Primary Market, where the DMO plans to offer ₦1.15trillion across all tenors, compared to ₦579billion in maturing instruments.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week strong as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.73% to close the week at 198,407.30 and ₦127.36trillion compared to 196,968.15 and ₦126.44trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.32 billion shares worth ₦164.845billion in 318,907 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.70 billion shares valued at ₦177.69billion that exchanged hands last week in 370,980 deals
On a sectoral basis, the, Industrial Goods, Oil and Gas and Consumer Goods indices rose by 5.73%, 1.50% and 0.63% while the Banking and Insurance indices fell by -1.04% and -4.59% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Premier Paints Plc and Conoil Plc while Fortis Global Insurance Plc and SCOA Nigeria Plc topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect cautious but slightly positive trading activity in the equities market, as Investors respond to the February inflation report and mixed sector performance.
| CURRENCY |
| (₦/$) | 13/03/2026 | 06/03/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,366.23 | 1,393.26 | -1.94% |
| Parallel | 1,435.00 | 1,400.00 | 2.50% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| PREMPAINTS | 14.60 | 19.40 | 4.80 | 32.88% |
| CONOIL | 169.00 | 204.40 | 35.40 | 20.95% |
| BUACEMENT | 225.00 | 270.00 | 45.00 | 20.00% |
| FIDSON | 88.50 | 105.35 | 16.85 | 19.04% |
| OMATEK | 2.20 | 2.60 | 0.40 | 18.18% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| SCOA | 34.35 | 22.65 | -11.70 | -34.06% |
| FTGINSURE | 1.49 | 1.18 | -0.31 | -20.81% |
| SOVRENINS | 2.66 | 2.11 | -0.55 | -20.68% |
| ALEX | 15.50 | 12.60 | -2.90 | -18.71% |
| LIVINGTRUST | 5.87 | 4.85 | -1.02 | -17.38% |
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