GLOBAL ECONOMY
The United States emerged from its longest government shutdown on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, after 43 days of fiscal deadlock, as President Donald Trump signed a bipartisan funding bill following weeks of negotiations. The shutdown, triggered by disputes over expiring health care subsidies, left 650,000 federal workers unpaid and cost the economy an estimated $30billion weekly, disrupting air travel, food assistance programs, and key data releases. While the resolution restored government operations, the deal only funds Agencies until January 30, 2026, raising concerns of another standoff.
The British pound weakened to £1/$1.315 this week as Investors grew concerned about the country’s fiscal outlook after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is dropping plans to raise income tax. The move follows improved forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which cut the expected fiscal shortfall from roughly £35billion to around £20billion in line with the Labour party’s pledge on lower headline income-tax rates. This follows news of the UK unemployment rate rising to 5% with GDP falling month-on-month by 0.10% and rising year-on-year by 1.10% in September 2025.
The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.20% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, up from 0.10% in Q2 2025. Spain grew the fastest by 0.60%, France also posted strong momentum with a 0.50% increase, fueled by a sharp rebound in exports, while the Netherlands grew by 0.40%. In contrast, Germany’s economy stagnated amid weakening external demand, while Italy flatlined as industrial output contracted and the services sector showed no growth. On an annual basis, Eurozone GDP rose 1.40%, below the 1.50% pace recorded in Q2 2025. The figures suggest the bloc continues to show resilience despite geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty, reducing immediate pressure on the ECB to deliver additional rate cuts.
China’s industrial production grew by 4.90% year-on-year in October 2025, slowing from a 6.50% increase in September 2025. This marked the slowest increase since August 2024, due to softer rises in manufacturing activity (4.90% vs 7.31% in September) and mining, partly due to the Golden Week holiday. Within manufacturing, major industries recorded growth, including automotive, computers and communications. Meanwhile, China’s urban unemployment rate fell to 5.10% in October 2025 compared to 5.20% in September 2025.
We await updates on the schedule of US economic data after the end of its prolonged government shutdown.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed mixed on Friday despite initial gains, as the tech sector remained under heavy pressure following increased concern by investors about widened valuations in AI-related stocks and concerns that the Fed may hesitate to cut rates next month following skepticism by policy makers about the need for another reduction. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq index decreased by -0.21% to 25,008.24, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 0.08% and 0.34%, closing at 6,734.11 and 47,147.48, respectively.
Uk and European stocks closed higher following gains from the US Government reopening but remained under pressure from overstated valuations for US big tech and Federal Reserve members push-back against the certainty of a rate cut for their next meeting. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 0.16%, 1.30% and 2.77% to close at 9,698.37, 23,876.55 and 8,170.09, respectively.
Asian stocks closed higher this week despite disappointing data that reversed early gains. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 1.26% and 1.85% to close the week at 26,572.46 and 3,359.81, respectively.
Next week, we expect cautious trading to continue this week, pending the incoming batch of official data following the end of the government shutdown.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Senate Approves ₦1.15trillion Domestic Loan to Fund 2025 Budget Deficit
The Senate has approved President Bola Tinubu’s request to borrow ₦1.15trillion from the domestic debt market to close the funding gap in the ₦59.99trillion 2025 Appropriation Act, which saw a ₦5.25trillion increase from the initial proposal. The adjustment widened the deficit to ₦14.10trillion, leaving an unfunded shortfall after the approved borrowing provision of ₦12.95trillion. Lawmakers directed the Finance Ministry and Debt Management Office (DMO) to ensure borrowing aligns with fiscal sustainability, transparency, and approved parameters, while mandating quarterly compliance reports and oversight on utilization. The loan forms part of Tinubu’s broader fiscal strategy to stimulate growth, fund infrastructure, and strengthen social programs.
Senate Urges Review of 30% Capital Gains Tax After ₦2trillion Market Rout
The Nigerian Senate has called on Finance Minister Wale Edun to reconsider the new 30% Capital Gains Tax (CGT) on share disposals above ₦150million, after panic selling wiped out ₦2trillion in market value within a week. The hike, introduced under the Nigerian Tax Act 2025, is set to take effect in January 2026, raising CGT from 10% to 30% for large transactions. Senator Osita Izunaso, Chair of the Capital Market Committee, warned that while taxation is vital for revenue, abrupt fiscal changes risk eroding Investor confidence and long-term capital formation. The Senate plans to engage the Finance Ministry to explore phased implementation or discretionary measures to stabilize the market.
Nigeria’s Crude Oil Profit Plunges 43% in 2024 Despite Revenue Surge
Nigeria’s gross profit from crude oil and gas sales fell by ₦824.66billion to ₦1.08trillion in 2024, down 43.32% from ₦1.90trillion in 2023, missing the ₦1.46trillion target by 26.32%, according to the Budget Office’s Q4 2024 report. While total oil and gas receipts soared 80.33% to ₦15.07trillion, driven by FX gains and higher royalties, profit accounted for just 7.20% of revenue versus 22.80% in 2023, reflecting rising operating costs and Joint Venture obligations. Petroleum Profit Tax jumped 111.56% to ₦6trillion, royalties surged 179.74% to ₦6.99trillion, and FX gains spiked 435.93% to ₦4.24trillion, yet margins remain under pressure, signaling structural inefficiencies despite reforms and subsidy removal.
Nigeria Targets Remote Workers with Global Data-Sharing Pact to Enforce Tax Compliance
Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, announced that Nigeria has signed agreements with over 100 countries under the Common Reporting Standard to access financial data of remote workers and Nigerians with assets abroad, strengthening enforcement of self-declared income tax obligations. Speaking at a webinar on simplifying Nigeria’s tax system, Oyedele emphasized that all remote workers, whether earning from global tech firms or offshore companies must declare income or face presumptive assessments backed by intelligence from bank transactions and international data exchange. He also confirmed ongoing engagement with big tech firms on VAT compliance, generating billions in revenue, and clarified that Capital Gains Tax reforms effective January 2026, will only apply to future gains, with a cost basis reset and grandfathering provisions ensuring that profits earned before the reform remain exempt.
PalmPay & Wema Bank Execute Nigeria’s First Live Transaction on NIBSS National Payment Stack
Nigeria’s digital payment ecosystem hit a major milestone as PalmPay and Wema Bank completed the first live transaction on Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System’s (NIBSS’s) National Payment Stack (NPS) at 11:56 AM on November 7, 2025, with settlement achieved in milliseconds. The NPS, built on the ISO 20022 standard, is designed to replace the 14-year-old NIBSS Instant Payment platform, offering instant, secure, and high-volume processing, advanced security layers, and cross-border capabilities. This next-generation infrastructure aims to unify banks and fintechs, deepen financial inclusion, and support Nigeria’s ambition of a $1trillion economy in eight years, while ensuring global interoperability and compliance.
PENCOM Extends Deadline for Revised Capital Requirements for PFAs and PFCs to June 2027
The National Pension Commission (PENCOM) has granted a six-month extension for compliance with its revised minimum capital requirements, moving the deadline from December 31, 2026 to June 30, 2027. Under the new framework, PFAs with ₦500 billion+ AUM must maintain ₦20 billion plus 1% of excess AUM, while special PFAs like NPF Pensions require ₦30 billion. Key clarifications include inclusion of Statutory Reserve Fund (SRF) in shareholders’ funds and exclusion of certain funds from Assets Under Management surcharge calculations. PENCOM will enforce compliance through biannual audits, with a 90-day rectification window for shortfalls, aiming to strengthen financial stability and operational resilience in Nigeria’s pension industry.
We await the release of the Inflation Data for October 2025 on Monday, 17th November 2025
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigerian Eurobond yields eased 21bps to 7.77% last week as improving risk sentiment and relative stability in global fixed-income markets fueled renewed investor confidence. The rally extended Nigeria’s positive momentum in the external debt space, signaling optimism around macroeconomic reforms and fiscal discipline.
Next week, we anticipate demand in Nigeria’s fixed-income space as investors position ahead of the approaching NOV-2025 Eurobond maturity.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices closed the week at $4,091.64/oz, up 2.27% from last Friday, despite sharp intraday swings driven by hawkish Fed signals and post-shutdown uncertainty; year-to-date gains remain strong at nearly 60% as investors seek safe-haven assets.
OIL
Brent crude oil futures climbed over 1% toward $64.39 per barrel on Friday from $63.63/bbl, on track to snap a two-week losing streak, supported by supply risks. This is supported by geopolitical tensions after a Ukrainian drone strike disrupted Russian exports, even as details point to oversupply heading into 2026.
ETFs
US ETFs ended mixed, reflecting rate-cut uncertainty and tech volatility, signalling cautious sentiment amid delayed economic data releases following the historic government shutdown.
Next week, we anticipate more shift towards global safe-haven assets pending the release of US data after the lifting of the US shutdown.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MOFI Lists ₦1trillion Real Estate Investment Fund on NGX to Drive Affordable Housing
Nigeria’s Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) has listed its ₦1trillion MOFI Real Estate Investment Fund (MREIF) on the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), marking a major step in mobilizing private and institutional capital for affordable housing and sustainable development. The Series 2 Fund comprises 1 billion units at ₦100 each, backed by strong credit ratings (AAA by Agusto & Co, AA by GCR) and structured under a Public-Private Partnership model to deliver long-term, low-cost mortgage financing at 9.75% interest, with a 20-year tenure. Already operational with 1,000+ mortgages since May 2025, the listing enhances liquidity, transparency, and investor confidence, aligning with Nigeria’s Renewed Hope Agenda and its goal of inclusive economic growth through housing and infrastructure investment.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week with a surplus of ₦3.84trillion, a significant decline of ₦1.22trillion from previous week. By Friday, system liquidity declined further to close the week at a credit of ₦3.62trillion owing to the OMO auction settlement. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 13bp to 24.92%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 13bps to 17.26%.
The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor bonds and mid-tenor bonds decreased by 18bps and 31bps to 15.62% and 15.35% while the average yields for the long tenor bonds increased by 1bps to 15.58% unchanged at 15.57%.
Next week, we expect Investors attention to shift to the Treasury Bills space ahead of Wednesday’s auction, where the DMO would be offering ₦700billion against ₦689.55billion maturing across tenors.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market extended its bearish momentum this week as panic selling dominated trading sentiment, largely driven by misconceptions around proposed tax reforms. The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 1.68% and 1.58% to close the week at 147,013.59 and ₦93.50trillion compared to 149,524.81 and ₦94.99trillion last week.
A total turnover of 7.33 billion shares worth ₦156.43billion in 134,383 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.58 billion shares valued at ₦107.01billion that exchanged hands last week in 146,429 deals.
On a sectoral basis, Consumer Goods, Insurance and Banking indices closed positive at 0.46%, 2.42% and 1.26% while Industrial Goods and Oil and Gas indices closed negative at -6.97% and -0.85% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were NCR (Nigeria) PLC and Aso Savings and Loans PLC, while Union Dicon Salt PLC and Austin Laz & Company PLC topped the losers list.
We anticipate calm trading next week as Investors reposition ahead of key data releases such as the October 2025 inflation print and the November MPC decision, which will shape expectations around interest rates and equity risk-premium.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 14/11/2025 | 7/11/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,442.43 | 1,436.58 | 0.41% |
| Parallel | 1,455.00 | 1,455.00 | 0.00% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| CORNERST | 331 | 4,236,447,186 | 21.40 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6,335 | 298,525,465 | 6.68 |
| ZENITHBANK | 7,630 | 216,930,896 | 13.05 |
| FIDELITYBK | 3,035 | 181,547,116 | 3.40 |
| GTCO | 6,403 | 150,905,169 | 12.89 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| CORNERST | 331 | 4,236,447,186 | 21.40 |
| ARADEL | 3,611 | 24,640,905 | 17.18 |
| STANBIC | 1,195 | 139,442,309 | 14.74 |
| ZENITHBANK | 7,630 | 216,930,896 | 13.05 |
| GTCO | 6,403 | 150,905,169 | 12.89 |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NCR | 19.35 | 25.60 | 6.25 | 32.30% |
| ASOSAVINGS | 0.90 | 1.03 | 0.13 | 14.44% |
| CHAMPION | 13.00 | 14.50 | 1.50 | 11.54% |
| INTENEGINS | 2.44 | 2.72 | 0.28 | 11.48% |
| NSLTECH | 0.75 | 0.83 | 0.08 | 10.67% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| UNIONDICON | 7.75 | 6.30 | -1.45 | -18.71% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 2.90 | 2.36 | -0.54 | -18.62% |
| MULTIVERSE | 11.75 | 10.05 | -1.70 | -14.47% |
| DANGCEM | 660.00 | 594.00 | -66.00 | -10.00% |
| ACADEMY | 7.50 | 6.75 | -0.75 | -10.00% |
DISCLAIMER
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