GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US annual inflation rate eased to 2.30% in April 2025, the lowest since February 2021, down from 2.40% in March and below forecasts of 2.40%. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.50% in April 2025. US import prices increased by 0.14% in April 2025, from the 0.40% decline in the previous month, suggesting potential resistance to price reductions among importers despite the 10% tariffs imposition on imports. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that inflation could become more volatile due to frequent supply shocks, making it harder for Central Banks to maintain price stability. However, he reaffirmed the Fed’s strong commitment to its 2.00% inflation target.
The British Pound rose to £1/$1.33 following the release of the GDP report that the British economy expanded by 1.30% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, slightly below the 1.50% growth recorded in the previous quarter but above market expectations signaling a resilience in the British economy and a reduced pressure for aggressive rate cuts. The UK trade deficit narrowed to £3.70billion in March 2025 from £4.86billion in February, as exports rose 0.60% to a two-year high of £76billion, while imports declined by 0.90% to £79.70billion.
The Euro traded around €1/$1.12, rebounding from a one month low as the Eurozone economy expanded by 1.20% year-on-year in Q1 2025, maintaining the same pace as the previous quarter. Spain expanded by 2.80%, the Netherlands by 2.00%, Belgium remained at 1.10%, and Ireland posted a strong 10.90% increase. Finland grew by 1.20%, Portugal by 1.60%, Slovakia by 1.00%, Lithuania by 3.20%, Estonia by 1.20%, and Cyprus by 3.00%. The Eurozone’s trade surplus also reached a record €36.80billion in March 2025, up from €22.80billion a year earlier, driven by a sharp rise in exports, particularly to the US as buyers placed orders ahead of upcoming tariffs.
The Yuan edged higher to around ¥7.21/$1 on Friday supported by a weakening US Dollar amid soft economic figures. China has temporarily lifted export restrictions on rare earths and military-use technologies for 28 US entities following the outcome of the Geneva meeting where an agreement of a 90-day pause and a 115%-point reduction in reciprocal tariffs, was reached marking the first major de-escalation in the ongoing trade war.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor developments surrounding tariffs, speeches from the Federal Reserve officials and release of key economic indicators globally.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed the week on a high note, with all three major indexes posting solid weekly gains, buoyed by easing US-China trade tensions. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 7.15%, 5.27% and 3.41% to 19,211.10, 5,958.38 and 42,654.74, respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, stock also closed higher with the FTSE 100 extending its gains on Friday, reaching levels last seen before President Donald Trump announced global trade tariffs in early April. The London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100, France Cotation Assistée en Continu (CAC) 40 and Germany’s Deutscher Aktien (DAX) indices increased by 1.52%, 1.85% and 1.14% to 8,684.56, 7,886.69 and 23,767.43, respectively.
The Chinese stocks reversed some gains during the week but closed higher compared to last week following positive reports from the meeting held at Geneva. The Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 2.09% and 0.25% to 23,345.05 and 2,740.45, respectively.
We expect some bullishness in the market as Investors take advantage of the 90-day truce between US and China while also monitoring upcoming tariff announcements from Trump.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Declines to 23.71% in April 2025
Nigeria’s inflation rate eased to 23.71% in April 2025, a decline of 0.52% from 24.23% in March, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The food inflation rate also declined to 21.26%, with month-on-month inflation slowing to 2.06% from 2.18% in March, which was attributed to the improvement and interventions in agriculture, transport, and services, which have helped ease pressure on household incomes. Benue however, had the highest food inflation of 51.76% owing to insecurity disrupting agricultural activities in the state.
FAAC Distributes ₦1.68trillion in April 2025 Revenue
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed ₦1.68trillion in April 2025, a 6.50% increase from ₦1.58trillion in March. Gross revenue totaled ₦2.85trillion, with deductions for collection costs and transfers leaving ₦1.68trillion for distribution. The Federal Government received ₦565.31billion, States ₦556.74billion, and Local Governments ₦406.63billion, while oil-producing states got ₦152.55billion. Revenue growth was driven by increases in Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Oil and Gas Royalties, VAT, Electronic money transfer levy (EMTL), Excise Duty, Import Duty, and CET levies, though Companies Income Tax saw a significant decline, reflecting corporate challenges amid economic headwinds.
Nigeria Reached an Average of 1.49 million bpd in April 2025 – OPEC
Nigeria’s crude oil production averaged 1.49 million barrels per day (mbpd) in April 2025, slightly up from 1.40 million bpd in March, but still well below the government’s 2 million bpd target. For the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s average output stood at 1.47 million bpd, compared to 1.44 million bpd in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, OPEC’s total Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) output reached 40.92 million bpd in April, marking a 106,000 bpd increase from March. Despite the shortfall, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s largest crude oil exporter.
CBN Unveils NRBVN Platform to Revolutionize Diaspora Banking and Boost $1Billion Monthly Remittances
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in collaboration with the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), has launched the Non-Resident Bank Verification Number (NRBVN) platform, enabling Nigerians abroad to obtain their Bank Verification Number (BVN) remotely without needing to be physically present in Nigeria. CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso described the initiative as a major step toward financial inclusion, easing access to banking services for Nigerians in the diaspora. The platform is expected to increase remittance flows, with the CBN targeting $1billion in monthly remittances, further strengthening Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserves. The NRBVN framework also integrates Non-Resident Ordinary Accounts (NROA) and Non-Resident Nigerian Investment Accounts (NRNIA), providing diaspora Nigerians access to savings, mortgages, insurance, pensions, and investment opportunities in Nigeria’s capital markets. Additionally, the platform adheres to global security and compliance standards, incorporating Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols to ensure transparency and safeguard against illicit financial activities.
Nigeria Joins EBRD to Boost Private Sector Growth
Nigeria has officially become a member of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), a move aimed at enhancing private sector access to international capital and supporting long-term economic transformation. With over 80% of EBRD financing directed toward the private sector, Nigeria’s membership will provide local businesses access to development finance and technical expertise in key areas such as energy transition, infrastructure, agriculture, and digital innovation.
Nigeria to Receive $3Billion in Telecom Infrastructure Investment by June
Nigeria is set to receive $3billion in telecommunications equipment and fibre optic infrastructure by mid-2025, according to Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Dr. Bosun Tijani. The investment includes $1billion in telecom equipment and $2billion in fibre optic cables, aimed at strengthening broadband infrastructure and expanding digital access across the country. This initiative aligns with Nigeria’s digital economy agenda, focusing on inclusive access to technology and enhanced connectivity
We await the CBN decisions from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled to hold on 19th-20th May 2025.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System Liquidity opened strong but tightened midweek due to Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and FX settlements by the CBN, but Inflows of bond coupon payments also improved system liquidity. Consequently, short-term rates remained stable, with the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) unchanged at 26.50%, while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased slightly by 1bp to close at 26.96% respectively.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased by 5bps to 20.93% last week. In the Bonds market, the average yield for the Short-tenor and Long-tenor Bonds increased by 18bps and 138bps to 19.25% and 19.20%, while the average yield of the Medium-tenor bonds decreased by 1bp to 19.14%.
We expect mild bullishness next week as Investors look out for high yielding instruments.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization increased by 0.90%to close the week at 109,710.37 and ₦68.95trillion respectively from 108,733.40 and ₦68.34trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.61 billion shares worth ₦63.79billion in 77,593 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.65 billion shares valued at ₦77.01billion that exchanged hands last week in 86,110 deals. On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Insurance, Oil and Gas, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices all closed positive, at 1.19%, 2.47%, 0.66%, 4.08% and 0.13% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Beta Glass Plc and Champion Brew Plc while notable losers were Union Dicon Salt Plc and Multiverse Mining and Exploration Plc.
We anticipate Foreign and local Investors’ interest to span across blue-chip and mid-cap stocks.
CURRENCY
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
TOP GAINERS
TOP LOSERS
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