GLOBAL ECONOMY
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, with officials citing labor market risks and the need for economic stimulus. Despite a prolonged government shutdown delaying key data releases, the US posted a strong $198billion budget surplus in September from $134billion last year, driven by increased tax receipts and reduced outlays, leading to a $41billion annual deficit reduction from $1.69trillion to $1.65trillion. Trade negotiations with South Korea are nearing completion, and potential easing of tariffs on China could further influence economic dynamics, while geopolitical tensions and banking sector stress continue to weigh on market sentiment.
The British Pound traded at £1/$1.34, after UK GDP data met forecasts, offering some relief to Finance Minister Rachel Reeves ahead of the November 26 budget. The economy grew 0.10% in August after a 0.50% contraction in July 2025, supported by manufacturing gains, while services were flat and construction fell. Industrial output and exports remain sluggish, widening the trade deficit to £3.39billion from £2.85billion. Meanwhile, unemployment has risen to 4.80% from 4.30%, vacancies continue to fall amid expectations of Bank of England rate cuts by early 2026, despite IMF warnings on inflation.
The Euro traded near €1/$1.17, supported by easing political tensions in France and a dovish US Fed outlook. Inflation rose slightly to 2.20% in September from 2.10%, with core inflation climbing to 2.40% from 2.30%, indicating persistent price pressures despite falling energy costs. Trade performance weakened significantly, as exports dropped 4.70% from €220billion to €209.70billion and imports fell 3.80% from €210billion to €202billion, leading to a reduced trade surplus of €1billion from €10billion, well below expectations.
The Yuan held firm near ¥7.13/$1 as the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) guided the currency stronger ahead of a key Party meeting. Consumer and Producers Prices declined in September, giving room for stimulus. Vehicle sales surged 14.90% year-on-year, led by new energy vehicles, which now make up nearly half of all car sales. Trade tensions intensified with both countries imposing new port fees on each other’s shipping firms, potentially costing the sector $3.20billion in 2026, while Beijing threatened further retaliation over US sanctions. Despite this, a meeting between Presidents Xi and Trump is still expected in South Korea later this month, aimed at de-escalating the conflict.
Next week, focus will be on inflation and earnings in the US, slowing growth and stimulus signals in China, weak consumer and industrial data in Europe, and fiscal challenges in the UK.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks closed lower despite posting modest gains as easing trade tensions and strong bank earnings helped offset concerns over the government shutdown and rate cut uncertainty. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices closed lower, decreasing by –2.73%, –2.43%, and –2.53% to close the week at 46,190.61, 6,664.01, and 22,204.43 respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, major indices ended lower amid weak industrial data and cautious economic signals. London’s FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX declined by –0.77% and –1.69% to close the week at 9,354.57 and 23,830.99, while France’s CAC 40 rose by 3.24% to 8,174.20.
The Asian stock market traded mixed as Investors weighed China’s stimulus efforts against global growth concerns. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix Index fell by –3.97% and –0.85% to close at 25,247.10 and 3,170.44 respectively.
Next week, cautious trading is expected as investors monitor US inflation and labor market data amid the ongoing government shutdown.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Falls to 18.02% in September
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02% in September 2025, down from 20.12% in August, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Month-on-month inflation slowed to 0.72%, reflecting a moderation in price increases across key sectors. Urban inflation stood at 17.50%, while rural inflation was slightly higher at 18.26%. Food inflation dropped sharply to 16.87% year-on-year, driven by falling prices of staples like maize, garri, and tomatoes. Core inflation also eased to 19.53%, as the Central Bank’s tight monetary stance and stable petrol prices helped anchor expectations. Experts say the trend signals a potential turning point in Nigeria’s inflation cycle.
Nigeria’s Debt Service Burden Deepens as External Payments Hit $932.10million, Domestic Debt Service Reaches ₦1.71trillion in Q2 2025
Nigeria’s debt servicing costs surged in Q2 2025, with external debt service hitting $932.10million, largely driven by payments to multilateral creditors such as the IMF, which received $415.60million, nearly half of the total. Commercial creditors including Eurobond holders, were paid $261.55million, while bilateral lenders like China, France, and Japan received $41.18million. This comes as Nigeria’s total public debt hit ₦152.39trillion ($99.68billion) by June 2025, nearing the $100billion mark, with the World Bank projecting a decline in debt-to-GDP to below 40% for the first time in over a decade.
On the domestic front, debt service reached ₦1.71trillion between April and June 2025, according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). Interest payments accounted for ₦1.69trillion, while ₦20.14billion was spent on principal repayments with Promissory Notes accounting for the entire principal repayment during the quarter. FGN Bonds dominated the domestic debt service at ₦1.07trillion, followed by Nigerian Treasury Bills (₦537.90billion), Sukuk Bonds (₦70.72billion), FGN Savings Bonds (₦3.19billion), and Green Bonds (₦1.08billion).
Despite the rising debt burden, Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators show signs of improvement. The economy grew by 3.90% in H1 2025, with GDP projected to reach 4.40% by 2027. Foreign Reserves exceeded $42billion, and the current account surplus rose to 6.10% of GDP, supported by stronger Non-oil exports and reduced Oil imports. President Tinubu has also sought $2.30billion in external capital including $1.20billion in new borrowing and $1.10billion to refinance a maturing Eurobond to manage debt sustainably and support infrastructure investment.
Nigeria’s Trade Surplus Hits 6% of GDP Amid Economic Reforms, Says CBN Governor
Nigeria’s trade surplus has surged to 6% of GDP and is expected to remain stable, according to CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso at the G24 meetings in Washington. He credited sound macroeconomic policies and a competitive currency for boosting domestic production and curbing imports. Supporting data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows a 44% rise in trade surplus in Q2 2025, with total trade reaching ₦38.04trillion, up 20.05% year-on-year. Exports accounted for 59.81% of trade, led by Crude oil at ₦11.97trillion (52.60%) and Non-oil products contributed ₦3.05trillion. The CBN is also developing a framework for mutually beneficial currency swaps to enhance trade efficiency.
IMF Warns, Global Public Debt to Surpass 100% of GDP by 2029 Amid Rising Fiscal Risks
Global public debt is projected to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, reaching its highest level since 1948, according to the IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor. Vitor Gaspar, Director of the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, emphasized that rising interest rates and financial instability are accelerating debt accumulation. The IMF urges governments to implement fiscal reforms, improve spending efficiency, and invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare without increasing total expenditure, to ensure debt sustainability and economic resilience. In April, the IMF forecasted a 2.80% rise in global debt for 2025, more than double the 2024 estimate, signaling urgent need for policy action.
Next week, Investors will focus on Eurobond maturities and signals from CBN on potential monetary easing amid improving macro indicators, even as we await the Q3 GDP report.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds closed the week on a bullish note, supported by strong demand across the belly of the curve. Average yields eased by 7bps to 8.00%, reflecting renewed investor appetite for Nigerian debt amid improving macroeconomic indicators and expectations of stronger external buffers.
Next week, we expect cautious sentiments in the Eurobond as Investors look forward to a projected rate cut from the Fed.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FG Raises ₦3.96billion from October Savings Bonds, Attracts More Retail Investors
The Federal Government of Nigeria, through the Debt Management Office (DMO), raised ₦3.96billion from its October 2025 issuance of FGN Savings Bonds, surpassing September’s ₦3.05billion. The two-year bond, due October 2027, was allotted at 14.06% per annum with ₦779million raised from 1,052 Investors, while the three-year bond, due October 2028, attracted ₦3.19billion at 15.06% from 1,435 Investors. Bonds were issued at ₦1,000 per unit with quarterly coupon payments and are listed on the NGX for secondary market trading. The programme continues to promote financial inclusion and offers tax-exempt, low-risk investment options for retail investors.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity was strong during the week, closing at a credit of ₦1.71trillion. Compared to last week. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 10bp to 25.07%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 59bps to 17.37%. The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bonds decreased by 60bps, 29bps and 37bps to 16.05%, 15.98% and 15.57% respectively.
Next week, we expect similar sentiments in the market, as liquidity squeeze due to the OMO auction settlement.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.35% and 1.36% to close the week at 148,977.64 and ₦94.56trillion compared to 146,988.04 and ₦93.30trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.42 billion shares worth ₦76.62billion in 126,591 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.29 billion shares valued at ₦90.30billion that exchanged hands last week in 138,177 deals.
On a sectoral basis, industrial goods, consumer goods, oil and gas and insurance indices closed positive at 2.79%, 1.93%, 0.04% and 2.56% while the banking index closed negative at -0.13%.
Notable gainers this week were Sovereign Trust Insurance PLC and Royal Exchange PLC, while Academy Press PLC and Tripple Gee and Company PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect slight profit taking as investors watch out for Q3 corporate release.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 17/10/2025 | 10/10/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,475.35 | 1,455.17 | 1.39% |
| Parallel | 1,495.00 | 1,495.00 | 0.00% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| CONHALLPLC | 585 | 260,782,048 | 1.15 |
| FIDELITYBK | 2,783 | 203,956,056 | 4.09 |
| ACCESSCORP | 5,909 | 153,811,096 | 3.98 |
| CHAMS | 2,935 | 136,220,298 | 0.57 |
| UBA | 6,201 | 108,945,733 | 4.60 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| MTNN | 6,577 | 16,743,983 | 7.77 |
| DANGCEM | 4,812 | 11,801,609 | 6.98 |
| ZENITHBANK | 6,005 | 90,044,163 | 6.14 |
| GTCO | 5,920 | 63,982,659 | 5.99 |
| ARADEL | 1,895 | 8,918,589 | 5.62 |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| SOVRENINS | 3.21 | 3.57 | 0.36 | 11.21% |
| ROYALEX | 2.16 | 2.40 | 0.24 | 11.11% |
| EUNISELL | 44.00 | 48.40 | 4.40 | 10.00% |
| SFSREIT | 381.10 | 418.75 | 37.65 | 9.88% |
| OMATEK | 1.37 | 1.50 | 0.13 | 9.49% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| TRIPPLEG | 6.05 | 4.91 | -1.14 | -18.84% |
| ACADEMY | 9.60 | 7.88 | -1.72 | -17.92% |
| REGALINS | 1.65 | 1.42 | -0.23 | -13.94% |
| LIVINGTRUST | 5.20 | 4.50 | -0.70 | -13.46% |
| IMG | 35.95 | 32.40 | -3.55 | -9.87% |
DISCLAIMER
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