GLOBAL ECONOMY
US labour market showed signs of recovery in November 2025, with private employers adding an average of 16,250 jobs per week and total job growth reaching 64,000, reversing October’s 105,000 loss. Gains were led by health care (+46,000) and construction (+28,000), while transportation (-18,000) and federal government (-6,000) saw declines amid ongoing workforce reductions. Unemployment rose to 4.60% from 4.40%, the highest since 2021, due to increased involuntary part-time work. Inflation eased significantly, with annual Consumer Price Index at 2.70% in November compared to 3% in September and core inflation at 2.60%, despite energy (+4.20%) and shelter (+3%) costs rising. October data was missing due to a 43-day government shutdown, and November monthly CPI was not released.
UK unemployment rose to 5.10% in the three months to October 2025, compared to the previous period, as joblessness increased by 158,000 and employment fell by 16,000 for a second quarter. Meanwhile, inflation eased to 3.20% in November, from 3.60% in October, as core inflation also fell to 3.20% from 3.40%, reflecting broad-based price moderation. The Bank of England cut rates by 25bps to 3.75% from 4%, its first reduction since August, citing cooling inflation and economic strain. PMI data also signalled resilience: Manufacturing rose to 51.20 from 50.20 and Services to 52.10 from 51.30 in December, supported by stronger demand and new orders despite ongoing cost pressures and employment declines.
The Eurozone’s trade surplus widened to €18.40billion in October 2025 from €7.10billion a year earlier, as exports rose by 1% and imports fell 3.60%, driven by lower energy and chemical purchases. Export gains were strongest to Switzerland (+16.50%), Norway (+6.10%), and Mexico (+8.07%), while shipments to the US, UK, and China declined. Inflation eased slightly, with headline CPI steady at 2.10% and core inflation steady at 2.40%, while monthly prices fell 0.30% from 0.20%, the first drop since January. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged for a fourth meeting, with the main refinancing rate remaining at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate holding at 2% and signalling no discussion of hikes or cuts amid uncertainty.
China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate held steady at 5.10% in November 2025, unchanged from last month as average weekly working hours stood at 48.60, while year-to-date unemployment averaged 5.20%. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell by 7.50% year-on-year to ¥693.18billion in the first eleven months, though November saw a sharp rebound with FDI surging 26.10% year-on-year. Manufacturing attracted ¥171.72billion, Services ¥506.29billion, and technology sectors ¥221.26billion, with notable growth in E-commerce, Medical instruments, and Aerospace. Switzerland, UAE, and the UK led FDI inflows with gains of 67%, 47.6%, and 19.3%, respectively.
Next week global calendar will be light due to the holiday-shortened week, but we anticipate US releases on durable goods, Q3 GDP revision, corporate profits, industrial output, and consumer confidence.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed mixed on Friday as tech stocks continued to weigh on global markets despite Tiktok’s deal with Oracle boosting Oracle’s share prices. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.48% and 0.11%% to 23,307.62 and 6,834.78, while the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.67% to 48,134.89.
European stocks closed higher on Friday, supported by Bank of England and European Central Bank’s Policy stance and an expected Fed rate cut in 2026. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, CAC 40 and German DAX increased by2.57%, 1.03% and 0.42% to close at 9,897.42, 8,151.38 and 24,288.40 respectively.
Asian indices closed lower on Friday, owing to the tech and AI-related sell-offs. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and the Topix decreased by 1.10% and 1.17% to 25,690.53 and 3,383.66 respectively.
Next week, we anticipate quiet trading in the global market due to the Holidays as Investors digest several delayed economic releases including the US Q3 GDP growth estimate.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Falls Sharply to 14.45% in November, Beats FG Target
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased to 14.45% in November 2025, down from 16.05% in October, marking a 1.60% point drop and beating the government’s 15% target, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Month-on-month inflation, however, rose to 1.22% from 0.93%, signaling continued price increases despite the slowing annual trend. While analysts view this as a sign of policy traction, however, food inflation remained elevated at 18.72%, while core inflation stood at 13.10%, reflecting persistent structural price pressures with headline inflation figure signaling progress, sustained high food costs and underlying core inflation continue to challenge affordability and economic stability
FAAC Distributes ₦1.93trillion November Allocation Amid Revenue Declines
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared approximately ₦1.93trillion among the Federal Government, states, and local councils for November 2025, drawn from a gross revenue of ₦2.34trillion. The Federal Government received ₦747.16billion, states ₦601.73billion, and local governments ₦445.27billion, while Oil-producing states got ₦134.36billion as 13% derivation. Statutory revenue contributed ₦1.40trillion, Value Added Tax (VAT) ₦485.84billion, and Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) ₦39.65billion, though VAT collections fell by ₦156.79billion from October. Major revenue lines, including Petroleum Profit Tax and Company Income Tax, recorded sharp declines, underscoring fiscal pressures despite excise duty gains.
Nigeria Earns ₦37.73trillion from Crude Oil Exports in First Nine Months of 2025 Amid Non-Oil Surge
Nigeria’s crude oil exports totaled ₦37.73trillion between January and September 2025, according to NBS trade data, with quarterly receipts of ₦12.96trillion (Q1), ₦11.97trillion (Q2), and ₦12.81trillion (Q3), reflecting relative stability despite global volatility. This underscores Oil’s dominance in foreign exchange earnings, even as non-oil exports hit a record ₦9.20trillion, up 48% year-on-year, though still contributing only 12–14% of monthly exports. While revenues remain strong, sector profitability has weakened; Oil and gas profits fell ₦824.66billion to ₦1.08trillion in 2024 highlighting structural cost challenges and Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to Oil price shocks despite diversification gains.
CBN Survey Projects Stronger Business Confidence, Economic Expansion by Mid-2026
Nigeria’s business confidence stood at 37.50 index points in November 2025 and is projected to rise sharply to 52.80 by mid-2026, according to the CBN’s Business Expectations Survey. Optimism spans key sectors, with Industry leading at 38.10 points, while Mining and Quarrying posted 50.00 points on own operations, signaling strong output expectations. Regionally, the North-East recorded the highest optimism at 52.70 points, while the South-East lagged at 18.70 points. Drivers include anticipated business expansion, higher activity levels, and increased hiring, with Construction showing the strongest growth prospects. However, insecurity, high taxes, poor power supply, and financing costs remain major constraints. The outlook aligns with Nigeria’s private sector momentum, as PMI rose to 56.40 in November, reinforcing expectations of steady economic rebound.
Next week, we await more information on 2026 fiscal plan as the Presidency proposes a ₦58.47trillion budget.
EUROBOND MARKET
The African Eurobond market traded broadly positive this week, supported by shifting global rate dynamics, stable oil prices, and softer U.S. inflation data. Early gains were driven by a rally in long-dated U.S. Treasuries and attractive entry levels, boosting demand for high-yield sovereigns. Mid-week sentiment turned mildly bearish as oil prices eased and front-end U.S. yields ticked higher, prompting selective profit-taking. However, risk appetite rebounded after a weaker-than-expected US CPI print and steady labor data, lifting buying interest toward week’s end. Nigeria 2029 remained a key focus for value-driven investors.
Next week, we expect sustained demand for high-yield African credits amid favorable technicals and stable commodity prices.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices held near multi-week highs, trading around $4,305–$4,350 per ounce, supported by continued expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 and a softer US dollar. Persistent geopolitical risks and strong central bank buying, particularly from China reinforced safe-haven demand.
OIL
Crude oil prices remained under pressure, with Brent closing at $60.47 per barrel and WTI at $57.40, down roughly 4% from prior week highs. Oversupply concerns dominated sentiment after the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a significant surplus for 2026, while muted Chinese demand added to bearish tone. Geopolitical risk premiums eased slightly amid progress in Ukraine peace talks, limiting upside potential.
ETFs
ETF flows stayed strong week-on-week.
- Equity ETFs: Continued year-end inflows into value and small-cap sectors, driven by risk-on positioning ahead of Fed speeches.
- Commodity ETFs: Gold and silver funds attracted strong inflows on safe-haven demand.
- Fixed-income ETFs: Maintained steady inflows as Investors positioned for lower rates and improved bond pricing.
Gold is expected to remain firm, supported by dovish Fed expectations, Central Bank buying, and geopolitical uncertainty, while Oil faces continued downside pressure from oversupply despite limited geopolitical risk premiums. ETF flows should stay positive into gold and fixed-income funds, with equity ETFs buoyed by year-end positioning.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FG Raises ₦596.47billion in December Bond Auction as Demand Surges for 2030 and 2032 Issues
The Federal Government secured ₦596.47billion from its December 15, 2025 bond auction, featuring re-openings of the 17.945% FGN AUG 2030 (5-year) and 17.95% FGN JUN 2032 (7-year) bonds. The 2030 bond attracted ₦159.21billion in subscriptions against a ₦230billion offer, with ₦101.99billion allotted at a 17.20% marginal rate, while the 2032 bond saw strong demand with ₦731.40billion subscribed leading to a ₦494.48billion allotment at 17.30% marginal rate. This auction caps a year of robust domestic borrowing, bringing total 2025 bond allotments to about ₦5.12trillion, despite fluctuating Investor appetite earlier in the year.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦2.56trillion a decline from previous week’s increasing mid-week owing to OMO and FGN Sukuk bond maturities, despite a decline on Tuesday. As of Friday, System Liquidity improved to close the week at ₦3.29trillion supported by FAAC inflows into the system. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased further this week by 8bps to 22.83%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 22bps to 17.60%. The Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for short-tenor and mid-tenor bills decreased by 1bps each to close at 16.90% and 17.05% while the average yield for the long-tenor bills remained unchanged at 15.89%.
Next week, we expect quiet trading as Traders monitor positions ahead of the New Year.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market sentiments improved with the market appreciating this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.76% to close the week at 152,057.38 and ₦96.94trillion compared to 149,433.26 and ₦95.26trillion last week.
A total turnover of 9.85 billion shares worth ₦305.84billion in 126,584 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.37 billion shares valued at ₦97.78billion that exchanged hands last week in 110,736 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Consumer Goods, Insurance and Industrial Goods indices closed positive at 2.75%, 4.51%, 3.07% and 0.72% respectively while the Oil and Gas index closed negative -0.72%.
Notable gainers this week were Aluminium Extrusion Industries PLC and Mecure Industries PLC, while Japaul Gold & Ventures PLC and LivingTrust Mortgage Bank PLC topped the losers list.
NDIC Begins Liquidation of ASO Savings and Union Homes After CBN Licence Revocation
The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has commenced liquidation of ASO Savings and Loans Plc and Union Homes Savings and Loans Plc following the CBN’s licence revocation on December 11, 2025. Under the NDIC Act 2023, insured depositors will receive up to ₦2million per account, credited automatically via BVN-linked accounts, while balances above this threshold will be paid later as liquidation dividends from asset sales and debt recoveries. Verification for claims runs December 16–30, 2025, both online and at designated branches. NDIC assured the public that the move is a targeted intervention and does not indicate systemic weakness in Nigeria’s banking sector.
We anticipate a calm session next week.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 19/12/2025 | 12/12/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,464.50 | 1,454.41 | 0.69% |
| Parallel | 1,480.00 | 1,480.00 | 0.00% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VOLUME TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| ETI | 362 | 5,250,298,283 | 168.70 |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 4005 | 626,424,197 | 24.92 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6991 | 547,499,308 | 11.01 |
| NEIMETH | 601 | 507,650,071 | 3.05 |
| STERLINGNG | 1624 | 460,262,785 | 3.22 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| ETI | 362 | 5,250,298,283 | 168.70 |
| GEREGU | 286 | 31,077,192 | 34.78 |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 4005 | 626,424,197 | 24.92 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6991 | 547,499,308 | 11.01 |
| GTCO | 5457 | 83,505,044 | 7.38 |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ALEX | 7.75 | 12.35 | 4.60 | 59.35% |
| MECURE | 37.95 | 55.00 | 17.05 | 44.93% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 31.45 | 44.95 | 13.50 | 42.93% |
| GUINNESS | 217.80 | 289.70 | 71.90 | 33.01% |
| NPFMCRBK | 3.10 | 3.74 | 0.64 | 20.65% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| LIVINGTRUST | 3.78 | 3.35 | -0.43 | -11.38% |
| JAPAULGOLD | 2.66 | 2.38 | -0.28 | -10.53% |
| INTENEGINS | 2.52 | 2.27 | -0.25 | -9.92% |
| FTN COCOA | 4.90 | 4.42 | -0.48 | -9.80% |
| STANBIC | 105.00 | 95.20 | -9.80 | -9.33% |
DISCLAIMER
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