GLOBAL ECONOMY
The Federal Reserve cut rate by 25bps to 4.00%-4.25% from 4.25%-4.50%; the first rate cut in 2025, with Chair Powell labeling it a “risk management” step amid rebound in GDP growth and falling jobless claims. Prime lending rates fell to 7.25% from 7.50%, reducing consumer borrowing costs, as banks mirrored the Fed’s move. Foreign investment stayed robust with $2.10billion in July inflows and $78.80billion in long-term securities purchases up from $49.20billion in June. Manufacturing output gained 0.20% on vehicle and nondurable goods strength.
The British Pound dropped to a two week low of £1/$1.35 ahead of the autumn budget, as public sector borrowing surged to £18billion in August up from £14.40billion in August 2024. UK employment rose by 232,000 in the three months to July 2025 up from an upwardly revised 239,000 increase in the previous period, driven by full-time roles with gains concentrated in professional services and healthcare. Inflation held steady at 3.80% in August, as food and hotel prices climbed while transport costs eased. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged at 4% in a 7–2 vote and slowed quantitative tightening to £70billion from £100billion in previous 12-month period, citing subdued GDP growth and inflation risks.
The Euro traded around €1/$1.18, slightly below recent highs, as the US Dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut. The European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates unchanged at 2.00%, signaling caution amid tariff risks. Inflation remained at the 2% target for a third consecutive month, with core inflation steady at 2.30%, supporting a neutral monetary stance. Trade figures indicated imports climbed 3.10% to €239.10billion from €231.90billion, while exports edged up 0.40% to €251.50billion from €250.40billion, narrowing the surplus to €12.40billion from €18.50billion.
Foreign Direct Investment fell 12.70% year-on-year to ¥506.58billion, amid global uncertainty. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) injected ¥195billion via reverse repos to maintain liquidity, while fiscal revenue rose 0.30% to ¥14.82trillion and government spending increased 3.10% to ¥24.20trillion, led by education, social security, and science. Urban youth unemployment climbed to 18.90% from 17.80% in July, reflecting labor market mismatches and economic headwinds.
Next week Investors will be on the lookout for PMI data across the major economies, GDP data, industrial profits from China to guide sentiments.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks closed higher with major stocks reaching new highs as Investors digested strong corporate earnings released, the Fed’s rate cut and the encouraging developments in US-China relations as both leaders agreed to resume trade talks. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, & Nasdaq indices closed higher, increasing by 0.85%, 1.22% and 2.21% to close the week at 46,315.27, 6.664.36 and 22,631.48 respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, major stocks fell as Investors sentiments were influenced by the decision of the Bank of England to hold interest rate and a larger than expected budget deficit for August. London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index, Germany’s Deutscher Aktien (DAX) closed lower, decreasing by -0.72% and -0.21% to close the week at 9,216.67 and 23,645.25 while the France’s Cotation Assistée en Continu (CAC) 40 closed higher, increasing by 0.36% to close the week at 7,853.59.
The Asian stock market retreated as traders locked in profits after the Shanghai Index hit a ten-year high and the absence of policy support as the Peoples Bank of China kept its key seven-day reverse repo rate unchanged at 1.40%. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 0.59% to close the week at 26,545.10 while the Topix index decreased by -0.41% to close the week at 3,147.68.
Next week, cautious trading is expected as Investors focus on Key speeches from the FOMC members while also on the lookout for PCE data.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 20.12% in August, CPPE Urges Sustained Reforms to Boost Consumer Confidence
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate fell for the fifth straight month to 20.12% in August 2025, down from 21.88% in July, with food inflation at 21.87% and core inflation at 20.33%, according to the NBS. Urban and rural inflation rates eased to 19.75% and 20.28% respectively, while the 12-month average CPI dropped to 24.66%. The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) welcomed the slowdown but warned that consumer confidence remains fragile due to high food prices and weak purchasing power. CPPE called for continued reforms and targeted interventions such as input subsidies and improved storage to further ease inflation, strengthen household welfare, and reinforce macroeconomic stability.
BOA Secures $1 Billion to Empower Smallholder Farmers and Boost Food Security
The Bank of Agriculture (BOA) has secured a $1billion fund in partnership with African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) to support smallholder farmers and strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural value chain. The fund will provide affordable credit, mechanization, and market access to farmers who contribute over 90% of Nigeria’s agricultural output. Key mechanisms include a guaranteed framework and currency swap arrangement to reduce risk and shield farmers from exchange rate volatility. The initiative aligns with President Tinubu’s National Food Security Fund and aims to drive inclusive growth and economic resilience.
Nigeria’s Crude Export Revenue Drops ₦3.18trillion in H1 2025, But Trade Surplus Hits ₦12.64trillion
Nigeria’s crude oil exports fell by ₦3.18trillion in H1 2025 to ₦24.92trillion, down 11.30% from ₦28.10trillion in H1 2024, as output challenges and global shifts eroded oil’s dominance. Crude’s share of total exports dropped to 52.60% in Q2, from 71.20% a year earlier. However, non-crude exports surged to ₦18.43trillion, driven by refined products and semi-processed goods, lifting Nigeria’s trade surplus to ₦12.64trillion, a 54.60% increase year-on-year. Despite this, fuel imports hit ₦4trillion in H1, straining reserves and highlighting fiscal vulnerabilities.
Next week Investors will watch out for the outcome of the MPC meeting holding on 22nd-23rd September 2025 to further shape the Economy.
EUROBOND MARKET
African Eurobonds opened bullish on Fed cut hopes and positive US–China trade talks, but enthusiasm faded after the Fed’s 25bps cut and Powell’s cautious tone. By week’s end, Eurobonds slipped, though late dovish Fed remarks limited losses. Nigerian Eurobond yields ended the week down 4bps at 7.80%.
Next week, we expect market sentiment to remain mixed as traders watch out for speeches from Fed members in anticipation for more rate cuts in October.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity was strong throughout the week, rising to ₦2.95trillion and declining to closing the week at a credit of ₦1.67trillion due to the CBN swap payments by some banks and the NTB Auction settlement. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 1bp to 25.95%
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 209bps to 16.88%. The Bonds market yields closed almost flat this week as the average yield for short-tenor bills decreased by 2bps to 17.03% while the average yield for the mid-tenor and long tenor bonds remained unchanged at 16.67% and 16.03% respectively.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction held on Wednesday 17th September 2025. The auction witnessed strong demand, majorly on the long tenor bill, as total subscription was 5.49x the total offer, at ₦1.59trillion. The bid-to-cover ratio was 4.61x and total allotment was ₦345.10billion, which was higher than the initial offer at ₦290billion, thus, the auction was oversold by ₦55.10billion. Stop rates for the 91-day, 182-day and the 364-day bills decreased by 32bps, 20bps, and 91bps respectively.
We expect market activities to be calm on Monday as Investors await the outcome of the MPC meeting
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.92% to close the week at 141,845.35 and ₦89.74trillion compared to 140,545.69 and ₦88.92trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.74 billion shares worth ₦85.20billion in 127,284 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.19 billion shares valued at ₦99.69billion that exchanged hands last week in 132,711 deals.
On a sectoral basis, Industrial Goods, Consumer Goods and Oil and Gas indices closed positive at 0.05%, 5.48% and 2.79% while the Banking and Insurance indices closed negative at -2.57% and -4.67%, respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Guinness Nigeria PLC and Multiverse Mining and Exploration PLC, while Cornerstone Insurance PLC and Omatek ventures PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, Investors will be on the lookout for corporate action releases, especially in banking and telecoms to guide sentiments in the Equities market.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 19/09/2025 | 12/09/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,487.90 | 1,501.50 | -0.91% |
| Parallel | 1,520.00 | 1,535.00 | -0.98% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦‘b) |
| ABBEYBDS | 207 | 401,317,837 | 2.73 |
| FIDELITYBK | 3,407 | 317,581,457 | 6.58 |
| UBA | 7,775 | 156,922,229 | 7.11 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6,204 | 133,342,277 | 3.58 |
| NSLTECH | 945 | 107,903,572 | 0.09 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦‘b) |
| GEREGU | 358 | 10,040,570 | 10.32 |
| ARADEL | 3,254 | 17,602,622 | 9.50 |
| UBA | 7,775 | 156,922,229 | 7.11 |
| FIDELITYBK | 3,407 | 317,581,457 | 6.58 |
| ZENITHBANK | 7,242 | 97,575,836 | 6.47 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| GUINNESS | 143.00 | 183.90 | 40.90 | 28.60% |
| MULTIVERSE | 11.50 | 13.95 | 2.45 | 21.30% |
| EUNISELL | 25.40 | 30.55 | 5.15 | 20.28% |
| E-TRANZACT | 14.95 | 16.70 | 1.75 | 11.71% |
| CHELLARAM | 13.30 | 14.60 | 1.30 | 9.77% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| OMATEK | 1.32 | 1.08 | -0.24 | -18.18% |
| CORNERST | 7.33 | 6.20 | -1.13 | -15.42% |
| NSLTECH | 0.86 | 0.75 | -0.11 | -12.79% |
| ROYALEX | 2.30 | 2.04 | -0.26 | -11.30% |
| UBA | 48.70 | 44.20 | -4.50 | -9.24% |
DISCLAIMER
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