GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US January 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes highlighted a growing policy divide, with officials balancing slower-than-expected disinflation against a still-resilient labor market. While some participants see scope for further rate cuts if inflation continues to ease, others favor maintaining the current stance for longer and warned that renewed tightening may be necessary should inflation remain persistently above target. Meanwhile, US GDP growth slowed sharply to 1.40% annualized in Q4 2025 from 4.40% in Q3 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending, a pullback in trade, and a contraction in government spending due to the shutdown, although fixed investment provided some offset. Inflation pressures re-accelerated late in the year, with core PCE inflation rising to 3% y/y in December and posting a firmer-than-expected 0.40% m/m increase.
UK labour market conditions softened further toward year‑end, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.20% in the three months to December 2025 from 5.10% previously, as total unemployment increased by 94,000 quarter-on-quarter, to 1.88 million. Inflation dynamics improved at the start of 2026, with headline CPI easing to 3% y/y in January from 3.40% in December, its lowest since March 2025, driven by softer transport and food prices, while monthly CPI fell 0.50% m/m versus a 0.40% increase previously. Core inflation also moderated, with the annual rate edging down to 3.10% from 3.20%, as both core goods and services inflation slowed, while core prices declined 0.60% m/m compared with a 0.30% rise in December.
Eurozone industrial activity weakened sharply at the end of 2025, with industrial production contracting by 1.40% m/m in December from a revised 0.30% increase in November, led by a reversal in capital goods output (-1.90% vs +2.60% previously) alongside softer energy, non‑durable consumer, and intermediate goods production. On an annual basis, industrial output growth slowed to 1.20% y/y from 2.20% in November, slightly below expectations, bringing full‑year 2025 growth to 1.50%. External balances also deteriorated, as the Euro area’s current account surplus narrowed to €34.61billion in December from €45.90billion a year earlier, reflecting a smaller goods surplus (€26.20billion vs €29.30billion), weaker primary income (€15.20billion vs €23.60billion), and a reduced services surplus (€9.70billion vs €13.20billion).
The IMF maintained its 2026 growth forecast for China at 4.50%, unchanged from its previous projection, while cautioning that weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy pose material downside risks. In its 2025 Article IV review, the Fund noted that China’s economy expanded by 5% in 2025, meeting the government’s official target, but flagged continued declines in the GDP deflator as evidence of persistent disinflationary pressures. The IMF identified a deeper‑than‑expected downturn in the property sector as the primary domestic risk, alongside renewed trade tensions as the key external headwind.
Next week, attention will turn to US producer prices, and leading indicators from regional Federal Reserve banks, which should offer further insight into inflation dynamics, and the underlying momentum of economic activity.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks swung higher on Friday after the US Supreme Court struck down a group of tariffs passed by the US presidential administration, and Trump responded with a global 10% tariff. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 1.51%, 1.07% and 0.25% to 22,886.07, 6,909.51 and 49,625.97, respectively.
European stocks closed higher this week, driven by gains in banking and consumer goods stocks and a boost from the US Supreme Court striking down a large portion of President Trump’s global tariffs. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 2.30%, 1.39% and 2.45% to 10,686.89, 25,260.69 and 8,515.49, respectively.
In the Chinese markets, onshore exchanges closed for the Spring Festival, liquidity conditions were thinner than usual, leaving price action more sensitive to flows. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix index decreased by 0.58% and 0.27% to 26,413.35 and 3,808.48, respectively.
Next week, we expect markets to remain highly sensitive to corporate earnings and macro signals, with Nvidia’s results serving as a key bellwether for global AI demand that has underpinned US equity performance in recent quarters.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 15.10% as Food Prices Plunge and Month‑on‑Month Index Turns Negative — NBS
Nigeria’s headline inflation eased slightly to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December 2025, marking a 0.05%‑point moderation and a sharp 12.51%‑point drop from 27.61% a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Prices contracted –2.88% month‑on‑month versus 0.54% in December, driven by a steep fall in food inflation, which plunged to 8.89% year‑on‑year (a 20.73‑point drop) and –6.02% month‑on‑month. Core inflation also slowed to 17.72%, down 7.55 points from January 2025, with monthly core inflation at –1.69%. Urban and rural inflation declined to 15.36% and 14.44% year‑on‑year, respectively, while both segments posted negative monthly readings. Despite the easing, twelve‑month average inflation remained high at 21.97%, reflecting underlying persistence.
FDI remains weak at $565.21million despite $16.78billion capital surge in 9 months 2025 — NBS
Nigeria attracted only $565.21million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the first nine months of 2025 just 3.30% of the $16.78billion total capital inflows despite strong quarterly entries of $5.64billion (Q1), $5.12billion (Q2), and $6.01billion (Q3), according to NBS data. Although FDI improved sequentially from $126.29million in Q1 to $296.25million in Q3, inflows were overwhelmingly dominated by short‑term portfolio investment, which exceeded $14.00billion, driven by high domestic yields. Financial services led Q3 inflows with $3.14billion, followed by financing at $1.86billion, while production and manufacturing attracted just $261.35million, underscoring limited investment in job‑creating sectors. Major capital sources included the UK ($2.94billion), US ($950.47million) and South Africa ($773.95million), highlighting Nigeria’s continued dependence on hot money rather than long‑term, productivity‑enhancing capital.
Nigeria’s Public Debt hits $103.94billion (₦153.29trillion) as Domestic Borrowing climbs to 53.37% – DMO
Nigeria’s total public debt rose to $103.94billion (₦153.29trillion) as of September 30, 2025, with domestic borrowing now accounting for the largest share at $55.47billion (₦81.82trillion) or 53.37%, according to latest DMO data. External debt stood at $48.46billion (₦71.48trillion), representing 46.63% of total obligations, converted using the official CBN rate of ₦1,474.85/$1. FGN Bonds dominate domestic liabilities at ₦61.90trillion (80%), followed by Treasury Bills at ₦12.68trillion (16.30%), while Sukuk, Savings Bonds, Green Bonds, and Promissory Notes contribute marginal shares. Federal Government debt totaled $52.76billion (₦77.81trillion), with states and the FCT owing $2.71billion (₦4trillion). The release following delays questioned by analysts confirms continued reliance on domestic markets for funding, driven mainly by bond issuances and short‑term instruments.
Nigeria’s FX Reserves hit $48.50billion — highest in nearly 13 years as upward momentum accelerates
Nigeria’s external reserves have surged to $48.50billion, their highest level since May 2013, marking a strong rebuild of the country’s FX buffers aided by improving inflows and tighter CBN liquidity management. Reserves climbed from $40.80billion at the start of 2025 to $45.50billion by year-end, gained over $700million in January 2026 alone, rose $509million in the first 22 days of the year, crossed the $46billion mark for the first time in eight years, exceeded $47billion by February 11, and reached $48.50billion by mid‑February consolidating a steady upward trend that began in late December 2025. The CBN now projects reserves to hit $51billion by end‑2026 under its FX reform and macro‑stability drive, strengthening import cover, improving external obligation capacity, and anchoring confidence in Nigeria’s balance‑of‑payments outlook.
Next week, attention will be firmly anchored on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, as policymakers convene to deliberate and set the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR).
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market recorded a mixed‑to‑positive performance over the week, supported by improved Investor sentiment amid a favourable global backdrop, including softer‑than‑expected US inflation data and firm crude oil prices. Midweek gains were reinforced by Nigeria’s lower January 2026 inflation print (15.10% y/y) and positioning ahead of anticipated Iran–US talks, which drove yield compression, although a hawkish tilt in the Fed minutes later prompted mild profit‑taking. By week‑end, sentiment improved following the US Supreme Court’s rejection of proposed tariff measures, with average benchmark yields falling 11 bps w/w to 6.92%.
Trading is expected to remain calm to positive as Investors assess the latest development between US and Iran in regards to the latter’s nuclear weapon enrichment.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices strengthened through the week, reclaiming the $5,000/oz level and ending around $5,080/oz, supported by renewed safe‑haven demand following the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down President Trump’s global tariffs, which weakened the Dollar and heightened policy uncertainty. The rally was reinforced by escalating US–Iran tensions, including heightened military posturing and fresh warnings from Washington, which lifted geopolitical risk premiums across markets.
OIL
Oil rebounded sharply, with Brent rising to almost $72/bbl from ~$68.05/bbl and WTI climbing to $66.50–67/bbl, marking a strong weekly gain. The rally was driven by escalating US–Iran tensions, concerns over potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and a sizeable drawdown in US crude inventories, temporarily overshadowing earlier oversupply concerns.
ETF
ETF flows remained positive overall, with equity and fixed‑income ETFs continuing to attract inflows, reflecting sustained risk appetite and yield‑seeking behaviour. Commodity ETF activity was mixed, with energy‑linked funds benefiting from rising oil prices, while precious‑metal ETFs saw more subdued flows as gold consolidated after recent highs.
Gold is expected to trade sideways to slightly firmer, with downside limited by geopolitical risk and central‑bank buying, but upside capped unless US yields or the dollar weaken further. Oil prices are likely to remain volatile and headline‑driven, with geopolitical risk premiums keeping prices supported despite underlying supply concerns. ETF flows should stay constructive, favouring equities and fixed income, while commodity flows remain selective, closely tracking energy price dynamics.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
NGX Lists Its First‑Ever Commercial Paper as Dangote Cement Debuts ₦119.87billion CP Programme
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) has achieved a historic milestone with the admission of Dangote Cement’s ₦119.87billion Commercial Paper issuance, its first‑ever listed CP covering Series 1 (₦19.95billion, 181 days, 17.50% yield) and Series 2 (₦99.92billion, 265 days, 19.00% yield) under the company’s ₦500billion CP Programme. The listing expands NGX’s product suite into short‑term corporate debt, enhances price discovery, and creates a more transparent and tradable framework for corporate funding.
CBN NTB Auction oversubscribed 3.72x as Stop Rates drop across key tenors
The Nigerian treasury bills auction held on Wednesday 18th February 2026, with the auction witnessing strong demand especially on the long tenor bill.
Total subscription was 3.72x the total offer, at ₦4.28trillion. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.24x and total allotment was ₦1.91trillion, higher than the initial offer, thus, the auction was oversold by ₦758.75billion. This allotment is significantly higher than the allotment at the previous auction of ₦951.61billion.
Stop rates decreased by 4 bps and 109 bps for the 91-day and 364-day bills and remained unchanged for the 182-day bill.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week. Liquidity opened the week at ₦4.68trillion, declining on Wednesday to ₦3.02trillion due to OMO auction settlement.
By the close of the week, system liquidity settled at a surplus of ₦2.16trillion declining due to treasury bills auction settlement. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) was steady at 22.50%, while the Overnight Rate fell further from last week by 7bps to 22.71%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 118bps to 17.42%.
The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for the short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds decreased by 15bps, 70bps and 36bps respectively.
Next week, Investors will focus on the DMO’s ₦800billion bond auction, comprising ₦400billion in the 7‑year FGN Jun 2032 reopening, ₦300billion in the 10‑year FGN May 2033, and ₦100billion in the 10‑year FGN Feb 2034 reopening.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week strongly bullish as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 6.95% to close the week at 194,989.77 and ₦125.16trillion compared to 182,313.08 and ₦117.03trillion last week.
A total turnover of 7.66 billion shares worth ₦252.57billion in 345,118 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.65 billion shares valued at ₦193.33billion that exchanged hands last week in 286,751 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major indices closed positive as the Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods, Oil and Gas and Insurance indices rose by 5.68%, 6.10, 10.10%, 8.66% and 4.73% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Zichis Agro Allied Industries Plc and Japaul Gold & Ventures Plc while Mecure Industries Plc and RT Briscoe Plc topped the losers list.
We anticipate the market to extend its bullish momentum next week, though with pockets of profit‑taking.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 20/02/2026 | 13/02/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,346.32 | 1,366.20 | -1.45% |
| Parallel | 1,350.00 | 1,360.00 | -0.74% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 10.80 | 17.36 | 6.56 | 60.74% |
| JAPAULGOLD | 2.51 | 4.02 | 1.51 | 60.16% |
| INFINITY | 9.90 | 15.75 | 5.85 | 59.09% |
| FTGINSURE | 0.39 | 0.60 | 0.21 | 53.85% |
| JAIZBANK | 8.30 | 11.00 | 2.70 | 32.53% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| RTBRISCOE | 17.42 | 13.80 | -3.62 | -20.78% |
| MECURE | 104.00 | 84.25 | -19.75 | -18.99% |
| TRIPPLEG | 6.65 | 5.40 | -1.25 | -18.80% |
| SOVRENINS | 2.80 | 2.32 | -0.48 | -17.14% |
| ELLAHLAKES | 15.00 | 12.80 | -2.20 | -14.67% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
Alpha10 Group. 13, Mambolo Street, Zone 2, Wuse, Abuja. Visit us at www.alpha10group.com.