GLOBAL ECONOMY
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for a second consecutive meeting in March, noting low job gains, and still‑elevated inflation while acknowledging uncertainty from the Iran conflict. Policymakers maintained projections for one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027 and upgraded GDP growth forecasts to 2.40% for 2026 and 2.30% for 2027, while lifting inflation expectations, with PCE and Core PCE now seen at 2.70% in 2026 and 2.20% in 2027. Meanwhile, US producer inflation accelerated sharply, with headline PPI rising 3.40% year‑on‑year from 2.90%, and core PPI up 3.90%, from 3.50%. Monthly producer prices rose 0.70% from 0.50%, driven by a surge in goods prices.
The Bank of England unanimously held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in March 2026 as the Middle East conflict drove a sharp rise in global energy and commodity prices, lifting household utility costs and business input expenses even as domestic prices and wages had been showing steady disinflation. Policymakers warned that prolonged high energy costs could trigger second‑round effects on wages and prices, though headline inflation remained subdued at 0.1% in February, with medium‑term pressures largely unchanged. The Bank expects the energy shock to push CPI temporarily to 3%–3.50% over the coming quarters, although softer economic activity from higher costs may limit additional inflation pass‑through. Labour‑market data showed the unemployment rate steady at 5.2%, below expectations but still the highest since early 2021, with unemployment rising 37,000 QoQ and 323,000 YoY.
The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged in March 2026, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the deposit facility at 2%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%, while reaffirming its medium‑term 2% inflation target amid heightened uncertainty from the Middle East war. The conflict has pushed up energy costs, leading the ECB to raise its inflation forecasts, now projecting 2.60% in 2026, 2% in 2027, and 2.10% in 2028, alongside higher core inflation estimates, while cutting growth expectations to 0.90% in 2026, 1.30% in 2027, and 1.40% in 2028 as elevated energy prices weigh on real incomes and confidence. Eurozone inflation picked up to 1.90% in February from 1.70%, driven by stronger services inflation and firmer non‑energy goods inflation, while core inflation rose to 2.40% from 2.20%. Among major economies, inflation accelerated in France, Spain, and Italy but eased slightly in Germany, reflecting diverging pressures across the bloc.
The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept its key lending rates at record lows for a tenth consecutive month, holding the 1‑year LPR at 3% and the 5‑year LPR at 3.50%, signaling policy stability amid surging oil prices, Middle East tensions, and Beijing’s lower 2026 GDP target of 4.50%–5%. Labour conditions softened as China’s surveyed urban unemployment rate rose to 5.30% in February (vs. 5.20% prior), exceeding expectations of 5.10%, while unemployment among locally registered workers edged up to 5.40%, and the migrant labour force saw a rise to 5%.
Next week, the US–Israel–Iran conflict is set to remain the main driver of economic sentiment, both in the US and globally, keeping energy prices and inflation concerns firmly in focus.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks indices dropped to four-month lows last week amid the escalating Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. Sentiment soured further as the Pentagon prepared to deploy additional Marines to the region although terminated by end of the week, while the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.50%-3.75%. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 3.07%, -2.88% and -2.92% to 23,898.15, 6,506.48 and 45,577.47, respectively.
European and UK stocks closed lower as level this year as rising oil prices and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on sentiment, with Investors concerned that higher energy costs could trigger an inflation spiral. The Bank of England’s more hawkish tone has reinforced the likelihood of tighter policy. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by -3.87%, -5.02% and -3.41% to 9,918.33, 22,380.19 and 7,665.62, respectively.
Asian indices posted sharp weekly declines as concerns over the economic and inflationary impact of the Iran war and higher energy prices weighed on sentiment. A retreat in oil prices offered some relief after US President Donald Trump ruled out deploying ground troops against Iran, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would refrain from further strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix index decreased by -2.15% and -0.04% to 25,277.32 and 3,609.40 respectively.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 15.06% as Monthly Price Pressures Surge in February 2026
Nigeria’s headline inflation moderated slightly to 15.06% in February 2026 from 15.10% in January, even as monthly inflation spiked to 2.01% from -2.88%, driven by rising food and core prices. The CPI climbed to 130.00 from 127.40, while food inflation jumped month‑on‑month to 4.69% after January’s -6.02%, though still far below last year’s 26.98%, settling at 12.12% year‑on‑year. Core inflation rose monthly to 0.89% but eased annually to 15.88%. Urban inflation reached 15.53% (YoY) and 2.55% (MoM), while rural inflation recorded 13.93% (YoY) and 0.71% (MoM). Despite renewed short‑term pressures, annual inflation fell 11.21 percentage points from February 2025, with food and non‑alcoholic beverages contributing 6.03 points to the headline figure.
Nigeria Offers Oil Supply Boost as Middle East Conflict Disrupts Global Energy Markets
Nigeria has declared readiness to help stabilize global energy markets, with the Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris stating that the country is prepared to supply more oil amid the US–Israel–Iran conflict that has tightened global supply. Speaking during President Tinubu’s UK visit, Idris said Nigeria will “ensure the world gets more Nigerian oil where necessary,” as the crisis deepens following Iran’s attacks on Qatar Energy facilities, which wiped out $20billion in annual revenue and shut 17.00% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for 3–5 years. The NESG projects Nigeria could earn up to ₦30.20trillion in additional oil revenue if geopolitical tensions persist, creating a rare opportunity for stronger fiscal buffers despite global market volatility.
Nigeria’s Oil Trade Shifts as Dangote Imports $3.74billion Crude and Boosts Exports in 2025
Nigeria imported $3.74billion worth of crude oil in 2025 to feed the Dangote Refinery, marking a major shift towards domestic refining even as crude sourcing expands internationally. The CBN’s Balance of Payments (BoP) report shows a $14.04billion current account surplus (down from $19.03billion), driven by a 14.41% drop in crude export earnings to $31.54billion, but supported by a stronger goods account surplus of $14.51billion. Refined fuel imports plunged 28.88% to $10billion, while Dangote exported $5.85billion in refined products, helping stabilize external balances despite higher service outflows of $14.58billion and a 60.88% rise in primary income outflows to $9.09billion. Nigeria recorded a reduced overall BoP surplus of $4.23billion, with reserves rising 13.83% to $45.75billion, supported by increased FDI at $4.01billion and stronger external buffers.
Nigeria Cuts European Imports by ₦5.36trillion in 2025 Despite Overall Import Surge – NBS
Nigeria’s import bill from Europe fell sharply by ₦5.36trillion to ₦17.44trillion in 2025, even as total imports rose by ₦6.76trillion to ₦67.35trillion, pushing Europe’s share of Nigeria’s imports down from 37.63% to 25.90%, according to NBS data. The decline was driven largely by a ₦12.57trillion collapse in the “Others” European category, while several major partners saw gains: the Netherlands rose to ₦3.35trillion (+₦1.04trillion), Italy to ₦1.83trillion (+₦0.88trillion), and the UK to ₦1.83trillion (+₦0.79trillion). In contrast, France dropped to ₦0.90trillion (‑₦0.76 trillion), Spain to ₦1.05trillion (‑₦0.41trillion), and Germany slipped marginally by ₦4.32billion. The data signals a major structural rebalancing, with Nigeria shifting demand toward non‑European suppliers particularly Asia, while consolidating European imports into fewer strategic partners as part of a broader diversification of global trade dependencies.
Next week, Investors will watch out for PMI data and key economic release and signals from CBN on policy stands to guide sentiments.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market extended its bearish trend into the week, as rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a global flight to safety. Following intensified US–Israel military operations against Iran, global Investors continued to retreat from emerging‑market sovereign debt, pushing Nigerian Eurobond yields higher across the curve.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist barring any signs of geopolitical de‑escalation that could trigger renewed demand and potential yield compression.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold experienced a dramatic reversal during the week, suffering its sharpest weekly decline since 2020 as macroeconomic forces overpowered safe‑haven demand. Spot gold, which traded above $5,100/oz earlier in the month, plunged aggressively, closing the week near the $4,630–$4,670/oz range. Market pressure intensified mid‑week due to hawkish Fed posture, reduced expectations of rate cuts, and surging oil‑driven inflation fears overwhelmed any geopolitical safe‑haven bid.
OIL
Oil markets remained intensely volatile, driven by escalating disruptions in the US–Israel–Iran conflict. Drone strikes on refineries in Kuwait and attacks near Qatar strengthened fears of long‑lasting supply disruptions as Hormuz tanker traffic reportedly down 97%, amplifying the “Hormuz Premium” on global benchmarks.
ETF
ETF flows remained generally robust as bond ETFs continued to attract robust inflows as Investors sought stability amid geopolitical shocks and rising inflation expectations.
Gold is expected to remain volatile but biased to the downside as central banks maintain hawkish tones and the dollar stays firm. Oil markets will likely remain driven primarily by Middle East conflict headlines, with Brent projected to retest $115–$120/bbl, while WTI holds $95–$100/bbl while Bond ETFs will likely continue receiving inflows as Investors hedge inflation and geopolitical shocks.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
NTB Auction Oversubscribed as DMO Sells ₦691.86billion, 364‑Day Stop Rate Slips to 16.63%
The Nigeria Treasury Bills held on Wednesday 18th March 2026. The auction recorded strong demand, particularly on the long‑tenor (364‑day) bill, with total subscriptions reaching ₦3.06trillion.
The bid‑to‑cover ratio stood at 4.43x, while total allotment printed at ₦691.86billion, lower the initial offer of ₦1.05trillion indicating an under sale of ₦358.14billion. This allotment was lower than the ₦933.92billion allotted at the previous auction. Stop rates for the 91‑day bill were unchanged at 15.95% while the 182‑day and 364‑day stop rate declined slightly by 3bps and 9bp to 16.62% and 16.72%.
Nigeria to Adopt T+1 Settlement Cycle from May 29, 2026 in Major Market Efficiency Upgrade
Nigeria’s capital market will move to a T+1 settlement cycle on May 29, 2026, cutting the current settlement period from two days and aligning the market with global best practices, according to a CSCS notice. All trades executed from that date will settle one business day after the transaction, a reform backed by the SEC to reduce settlement risk, improve liquidity, and accelerate post‑trade efficiency. Trades executed on May 28, 2026 (T+2) and May 29, 2026 (T+1) will jointly settle on June 1, 2026, marking the transition window. The shift follows Nigeria’s earlier migration from T+3 to T+2 in November 2025, and forms part of a broader strategy that could eventually enable same‑day (T+0) settlement once full ecosystem readiness is achieved.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦6.78trillion due to net CRR refunds, it increased mid-week on Wednesday by ₦1.40trillion to close the week at ₦8.18trillion owing to FAAC inflows and OMO maturity into the system.
Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00% while the Overnight Rate decreased by 12bps at 22.21%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 24bps to 17.65%, while the Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for the short-tenor remained unchanged at 16.00% while the mid-tenor and the long-tenor bonds decreased by 23bps and 18bps to 16.04% and 15.07% respectively.
Next week, attention will return to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Primary Market, where the DMO plans to offer ₦400billion across all tenors, compared to ₦745.80billion in maturing instruments.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week strong as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.39%to close the week at 201,156.86 and ₦129.13trillion compared to 198,407.30 and ₦127.36trillion last week.
A total turnover of 8.76 billion shares worth ₦267.25billion in 193,473 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.32 billion shares valued at ₦164.85billion that exchanged hands last week in 318,907 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking and Industrial Goods indices rose by 4.31% and 9.67% while the Consumer Goods, Insurance and Oil and Gas indices fell by -0.10%, -0.42% and -4.78% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were John Holt Plc and Bua Cement Plc while Zichis Agro Allied Industries Plc and Presco Plc topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect cautious but slightly positive trading activity in the equities market, as Investors trade carefully with fears that the Nigeria Capital Market might be nearing its bubble.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 18/03/2026 | 13/03/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,353.90 | 1,366.23 | -0.90% |
| Parallel | 1,420.00 | 1,420.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| JOHNHOLT | 9.45 | 11.85 | 2.40 | 25.40% |
| BUACEMENT | 270.00 | 326.70 | 56.70 | 21.00% |
| PREMPAINTS | 19.40 | 23.40 | 4.00 | 20.62% |
| ZENITHBANK | 95.95 | 110.00 | 14.05 | 14.64% |
| LEARNAFRCA | 8.25 | 9.35 | 1.10 | 13.33% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 17.36 | 8.58 | -8.78 | -50.58% |
| PRESCO | 2083.90 | 1701.10 | -382.80 | -18.37% |
| DAARCOMM | 2.14 | 1.85 | -0.29 | -13.55% |
| ETERNA | 42.30 | 36.90 | -5.40 | -12.77% |
| REDSTAREX | 28.55 | 25.70 | -2.85 | -9.98% |
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