GLOBAL ECONOMY
Following the resolution of the US Federal government shutdown, recent economic data signaled resilience in US activity. The S&P Global US Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 54.80 in November, driven by robust services growth and solid manufacturing output, despite slower job creation. New orders surged at the fastest pace in nearly a year, while the Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.90, still indicating expansion for the tenth time in eleven months. Labor market data showed Non-farm payrolls rebounded strongly in September with 119,000 jobs added, led by health care and food services. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.40% from 4.30% as Initial jobless claims fell to 220,000 in mid-November, but continuing claims climbed to their highest level since 2021. Federal workers’ claims spiked following the shutdown, underscoring lingering disruptions ahead of the December Fed meeting.
UK inflation continued to moderate in October, signaling easing price pressures across key sectors as the Headline Inflation rate slowed to 3.60% year-on-year compared to 3.80% the previous month, driven by sharp declines in housing and utility costs following an energy price cap adjustment, while annual core inflation eased to 3.40% from 3.50%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.40%, matching expectations from a flat position in previous months. Producer price trends were mixed: output inflation held at 3.60% year-on-year, compared to 3.50% the previous month, while input costs fell 0.30% month-on-month compared to -0.10% in September.
The Euro weakened to €1/$1.15, its lowest level since early November, as PMI readings and dovish Fed commentary fueled expectations of lower US rates. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation held steady at 2.10% in October, slightly below September’s 2.20% and close to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target. Price pressures eased for food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.50% vs 3.00%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.60% vs 0.80%), while energy costs fell further (-0.90%). In contrast, services inflation accelerated to 3.40%, the highest since April, and core inflation remained unchanged at 2.40%. Among major economies, inflation slowed in Germany, France, and Italy but rose in Spain. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.20% from 0.10%, pushing the index to a record high of 129.70 points.
The People’s Bank of China maintained key lending rates at record lows for the sixth straight month in November, signaling a steady policy stance amid easing trade tensions. The one-year Loan Prime Rate stayed at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remained weak, falling -10.30% year-on-year to ¥621.93billion in October compared to ¥693.21billion the previous year. Most inflows went to manufacturing and services, with technology attracting ¥192.52billion. The UAE was the largest source of investment, followed by notable contributions from the UK and Switzerland.
We expect official agencies to continue releases of delayed data by the Federal Government shutdown. US publications will be headlined by the producer prices, retail sales, and durable goods orders for September.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks pulled back after gains following New York Fed President John Williams’ dovish speech as concerns over the AI and tech sectors resurfaced. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indices decreased by -3.07%, -1.94%, -1.91% to 24,239.57, 6,602.99 and 46,245.41 respectively.
European stocks closed lower this week, despite a mid-week recovery. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by -1.64%, -3.29% and -2.29% to close at 9,539.71, 23,091.87 and 7,982.65, respectively.
Mainland stocks showing mixed performances after China’s Central Bank kept key lending rates unchanged as expected, signaling no immediate policy easing. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices decreased by -5.09% and -0.03% to close the week at 25,220.02 and 3,297.73, respectively.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Drops to 16.05% in October, Food Prices Ease.
Nigeria’s headline inflation fell sharply to 16.05% in October 2025, down from 18.02% in September and far below 33.88% in October 2024, according to NBS. Urban inflation stood at 15.65%, rural at 15.86%, while food inflation plunged to 13.12% year-on-year, a 26-point drop from last year. Month-on-month, headline inflation rose slightly to 0.93%, driven by higher prices of onions, oranges, pineapples, shrimp, and meats. Analysts attribute the moderation to easing food costs, forex stability, and improved supply dynamics.
FAAC Disburses ₦2.09trillion for October; FG Gets ₦758.41billion.
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared ₦2.09trillion in October 2025, comprising ₦1.38trillion statutory revenue, ₦670.30billion Value Added Tax (VAT), and ₦47.87billion Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), from a gross revenue of ₦2.93trillion. Deductions totaled ₦115.28billion, while transfers and savings hit ₦724.60billion. The Federal Government received ₦758.41billion, states ₦689.12billion, and LGCs ₦505.80billion, with ₦141.36billion allocated as mineral derivation. FAAC allocations have surged recently, prompting CBN warnings about excess liquidity risks to price stability.
Nigeria’s Pension Assets Cross ₦26trillion In September 2025 Despite Market Volatility.
Nigeria’s pension assets rose to ₦26.09trillion in September 2025, up 0.75% month-on-month and 23.44% year-on-year, reflecting sustained growth despite market volatility. Contributor registration under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) increased to 10.93 million (+0.42%), signaling continued onboarding. Government securities remained dominant at 60.35% of total assets, though FGN Bonds fell 3.37%, while Treasury Bills and Green Bonds gained 2.50% and 7.69%, respectively. Domestic equities edged up 1.47% to ₦3.66trillion, and corporate debt rose marginally. Alternative investments were mixed: REITs surged 23.61%, while mutual funds, private equity, and real estate declined. Cash holdings spiked 78.45% to ₦518.95billion, indicating a tactical shift toward liquidity. Among RSA funds, RSA Fund II led with ₦10.96trillion (42.10% of total assets), while other funds posted modest growth.
Next week, attention will center on Nigeria’s Q3 2025 GDP report and the CBN’s monetary policy decision, both scheduled for November 25.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigerian Eurobond yields eased 14bps to 7.76% last week, buoyed by improving risk sentiment and steady macro signals. The rally reflects Investor repositioning ahead of the $1.12billion November 2025 Eurobond maturity, reinforcing optimism across the curve. Stronger fiscal stability and expectations of policy prudence supported demand, signaling renewed confidence in Nigeria’s external debt space.
Next week, we anticipate sustained interest in sovereign instruments as Investors position for liquidity and rollover opportunities.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices ended the week slightly lower, with spot gold closing around $4,065/oz, down 0.65% from last week, despite holding above the $4,000 mark throughout the period. The decline was driven by stronger US jobs data and reduced odds of an imminent Fed rate cut, which lifted real yields and pressured bullion. However, gold remains up over 52% year-to-date, supported by persistent Central Bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty.
OIL
Crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI settling at $58.06/bbl and Brent at $62.56/bbl, both down about 3.00% for the week, hitting one-month lows. The drop reflected oversupply concerns amid signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and speculation that sanctions relief could boost Russian exports. A stronger US Dollar and mixed Fed signals added pressure, while global demand indicators remained soft. Year-to-date, Oil is down nearly 19%, underscoring persistent bearish sentiment.
ETFs
Equity ETFs faced a volatile week, with major US indices closing lower, as AI-related valuation concerns and Fed uncertainty weighed on sentiment. Defensive sectors like health care and consumer staples outperformed, while tech-heavy ETFs saw sharp declines. Crypto-linked ETFs posted heavy outflows amid a 25% Bitcoin slump. Gold-backed ETFs remained resilient, benefiting from safe-haven demand.
Next week, we expect Gold to stay firm near $4,000 as Investors monitor Fed signals and geopolitical risks, while Oil remains under bearish pressure from oversupply and weak demand. ETF flows should favor defensive and commodity-linked funds, with tech and crypto ETFs expected to stay volatile until rate-cut expectations stabilize.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
DMO Auctions ₦460billion FGN Bonds.
The Debt Management Office will auction ₦460billion in Federal Government Bonds on November 24, 2025, comprising ₦230billion of 17.95% FGN AUG 2030 (5-Year) and ₦230billion of 17.95% FGN JUNE 2032 (7-Year) re-openings. Minimum subscription is ₦50million, priced at ₦1,000 per unit, with settlement on November 26, 2025. The move underscores government’s strategy to boost domestic borrowing amid rising external costs and FX pressures.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week with a surplus of ₦3.65trillion, declining mid-week owing to the net OMO settlement. By Friday, system liquidity declined further to close the week at a credit of ₦1.30trillion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 9bp to 24.83%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 40bps to 16.87%. The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds decreased by 5bps, 6bps and 37bps to 15.57%, 15.35% and 15.21% respectively
Next week, we expect Investors attention to shift to the bonds market, where the DMO would be offering ₦460billion across tenors.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market extended its bearish momentum this week due to heavy sell off in Banking stocks. The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 2.24% and 2.23% to close the week at 143,722.62 and ₦91.42trillion compared to 147,013.59 and ₦93.50trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.67 billion shares worth ₦106.26billion in 107,998 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 7.33 billion shares valued at ₦156.43billion that exchanged hands last week in 134,383 deals.
On a sectoral basis, Consumer Goods, Insurance, Banking, Industrial Goods and Oil and Gas indices all closed negative at -0.44%, -7.05%, -3.85%, -4.50% and -1.61% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were NCR Nigeria PLC and University press PLC, while McNichols PLC and International Energy Insurance PLC topped the losers list.
We anticipate cautious trading next week as Investors rebalance their portfolios as end-of-year profit taking kicks off.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 21/11/2025 | 14/11/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,456.72 | 1,442.43 | 0.99% |
| Parallel | 1,460.00 | 1,455.00 | 0.34% |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NCR | 25.60 | 41.10 | 15.50 | 60.55% |
| UPL | 5.10 | 6.00 | 0.90 | 17.65% |
| TANTALIZER | 2.14 | 2.51 | 0.37 | 17.29% |
| CAVERTON | 4.70 | 5.50 | 0.80 | 17.02% |
| UACN | 60.00 | 70.00 | 10.00 | 16.67% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTENEGINS | 2.72 | 2.12 | -0.60 | -22.06% |
| MCNICHOLS | 3.02 | 2.57 | -0.45 | -14.90% |
| VERITASKAP | 1.88 | 1.60 | -0.28 | -14.89% |
| AIICO | 3.65 | 3.15 | -0.50 | -13.70% |
| LIVINGTRUST | 4.14 | 3.58 | -0.56 | -13.53% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
Alpha10 Group. 13, Mambolo Street, Zone 2, Wuse, Abuja. Visit us at www.alpha10group.com.