GLOBAL ECONOMY
USA
U.S. economic data for late 2025 showed resilience, with Q3 GDP up 4.30% annualized on strong consumer spending and exports, jobless claims at a yearly low despite rising continuing claims, corporate profits up 4.40% QoQ, while durable goods orders fell 2.20% and industrial production was flat.
BRITAIN
The British pound hit a three-month high above $1.35 on Fed rate-cut expectations as the UK current account deficit narrowed to £12.10billion, GDP growth slowed to 0.10% QoQ, and business investment rebounded 1.50% amid mixed sector performance.
EUROZONE
EU–China trade tensions intensified as Beijing imposed long-term tariffs on EU dairy (21.90%–42.70%) and pork (4.90%–19.80%), while the EU condemned the measures amid disputes over EV tariffs and a €297billion trade deficit, alongside rising political friction over U.S. sanctions on European figures for alleged censorship efforts.
CHINA
The offshore Yuan climbed to a 15-month high at ¥7.01/$1 on strong fixing and pre-holiday demand, while China’s industrial profits edged up 0.10% YoY to ¥6.63trillion in Janunary to November, slowing sharply as November fell 13.10% amid mixed sector performance.
Next week we anticipate fresh burst of economic data from US, EU, Asia, Russia, Mexico to provide insight into economic activities for the end of the year.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed higher on Friday supported by robust growth data from the US economy despite the market trading flat early part of the week. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 1.22%, 1.40% and 1.20% to 23,593.10, 6,929.94 and 48,710.97 respectively.
European stocks closed lower on Friday, as losses in Healthcare, banking stocks weighed down on major indices. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 decreased by 0.27% and 0.59% to close at 9,870.68 and 8,103.58 while the German DAX increased by 0.21% to close at 24,340.06.
Asian indices closed higher on Friday with major stocks reaching new highs as Investors pushed to end the year on a stronger note. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and the Topix increased by 0.50% and 1.16% to close at 25,818.93 and 3,423.06 respectively.
Next week, we anticipate quiet trading in the global market even as Investors digest several end of year economic data.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
CPPE Urges New Petroleum Regulators to Prioritise Domestic Refining, Target 2 million bpd Output
CPPE urged new NMDPRA and NUPRC CEOs to prioritize domestic refining, enforce crude supply obligations, incentivize local refineries, and boost upstream investment to raise oil output to 2million barrels per day and expand gas production, highlighting energy security and industrialization as key goals.
Nigeria’s Remittance Inflows Drop 11.78% to $2.07billion in H1 2025 Despite FX Reforms
Nigeria’s remittance inflows via International Money Transfer Operators, fell 11.78% in H1 2025 to $2.07billion from $2.34billion in H1 2024, despite April’s rebound, as global inflation and tighter migration policies weighed on formal transfers, highlighting their vital role in FX liquidity and household support.
Nigeria Posts ₦5.70trillion Fiscal Deficit in H1 2025 Amid Heavy Borrowing, Revenue Strain
Nigeria posted a ₦5.70trillion fiscal deficit in H1 2025, funded largely by domestic and concessional external borrowing, as weak revenues and high spending persisted despite staying within the 3% deficit-to-GDP threshold, raising debt sustainability concerns.
Nigeria’s Oil Revenue Misses Target by Over ₦16.20trillion in H1 2025 Despite Year-on-Year Gains
Nigeria’s gross oil revenue totaled ₦4.55trillion in Q1 and ₦4.77trillion in Q2 2025, far below targets by over 60%, despite year-on-year gains, while non-oil revenue mixed performance and distributable funds remained well under projections, highlighting structural fiscal challenges amid rising spending pressures.
Foreign Portfolio Investments Lag at ₦1.28trillion, just 20.77% of NGX Turnover Despite Reforms
Foreign portfolio inflows into Nigeria’s equities market reached ₦1.28trillion in January–November 2025, just 20.80% of NGX turnover despite reforms, as overall transactions surged 114.60% YoY to ₦10.54 trillion on strong domestic participation, while foreign trades fell 13.20% month-on-month amid FX and tax uncertainty.
Nigeria Tops African Crude Exports to US with 33.23 million Barrels Worth $2.57billion in 8 Months
Nigeria led African crude exports to the U.S. in January to August 2025 with 33.23million barrels worth $2.57billion that is over half of Africa’s total export—despite a brief reversal in February–March when imports of U.S. crude surged to meet Dangote Refinery’s ramp-up toward 650,000 barrels per day, underscoring strong bilateral energy ties and investment prospects.
NBA Demands Suspension of Tax Reform Acts Over Alleged Legislative Discrepancies
The Nigerian Bar Association has called for an immediate suspension of new tax reform laws, citing discrepancies between the passed and gazetted versions, warning that the uncertainty threatens constitutional governance, investor confidence, and fiscal planning ahead of the January 2026 rollout.
FIRS Declares NIN and CAC RC Numbers as Automatic Tax IDs Under New Law
FIRS announced that starting January 2026, Nigerians’ NIN will serve as their Tax Identification Number and businesses will use CAC RC numbers under the NTAA, consolidating all previous TINs to streamline compliance and curb evasion, leveraging 123.90million issued NINs without requiring new cards.
FEC Approves ₦58.47trillion 2026 Budget Ahead of Presidential Presentation to NASS
The Federal Executive Council approved a ₦58.47trillion 2026 budget, up 6% from 2025, projecting ₦34.33trillion in revenue and allocating ₦15.52trillion for debt service, ₦10.75trillion for personnel, and ₦2.22trillion for overheads, with oil benchmarks set at 2.60million barrels per day, $64/barrel, and ₦1,512/$, while non-oil revenue is expected to drive two-thirds of receipts.
Next week, we await more information on 2026 fiscal plan as the Presidency proposes a ₦58.47trillion budget.
EUROBOND MARKET
The African Eurobond market traded firmly this week, supported by favorable global macroeconomic developments. Early gains were driven by softer U.S. CPI data, which eased inflation concerns and stabilized U.S. Treasury yields, spurring selective demand for higher-yielding emerging market assets. Sentiment strengthened further after U.S. Q3 GDP growth surprised positively at 4.30%, boosting risk-on appetite and driving moderate yield declines, led by the NIG-NOV-2027 bond. Buying momentum persisted into the latter part of the week ahead of the holiday, resulting in a 3bps w/w decline in the average benchmark yield to 7.04%.
Next week, we expect sustained demand for high-yield African credits amid supportive technicals and stable commodity prices.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices held near record highs after a historic rally, with spot gold closing at $4,479.64/oz, up 4.12% w/w, following an intraday peak of $4,530/oz on Friday. The surge was fueled by strong safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations of U.S. rate cuts, as markets price in two quarter-point reductions next year. Additional support came from robust central bank buying and sustained ETF inflows. Despite midweek consolidation, bullion has gained over 70% YTD, marking its strongest annual performance since 1979.
OIL
Crude oil prices traded firmer this week, with Brent closing at $60.64/bbl and WTI at $57.80/bbl, up 0.28% and 0.70% w/w respectively, supported by strong US economic data and supply risk concerns linked to Venezuela and Russia and optimism over progress in Ukraine peace talks raised prospects of Russian supply returning to an already oversupplied market. This tempered earlier gains from US sanctions on Venezuelan shipments and a military strike in Nigeria. Despite recent geopolitical support, WTI remains on track for its steepest annual decline since 2020, down about 18%, as expectations of a global surplus in 2026 weigh on sentiment.
ETFs
Equity ETFs: U.S.-listed equity funds saw $47billion in inflows, while international equity ETFs attracted an additional $18.30billion driven by year-end risk-on positioning ahead of Fed commentary.
Commodity ETFs: Gold and silver funds sustained strong inflows, contributing to $1.54billion in commodity ETF inflows for the week.
Fixed-Income ETFs: Bond-focused ETFs added $8.50billion in inflows (with taxable bonds receiving $8.61billion and municipal bonds $1.38billion) as investors positioned for expected interest rate cuts.
Gold likely stays firm on dovish Fed expectations and geopolitical risk, while oil faces downside from oversupply, and ETF flows remain positive into gold, fixed income, and equities on year-end positioning.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FG Issues ₦590billion Power Sector Bond to Clear Legacy Debts, Targets ₦1.23trillion by Q1 2026
The Federal Government has issued a ₦590billion Series 1 bond under the Presidential Power Sector Debt Reduction Programme to clear verified arrears to GenCos and gas suppliers, marking the first phase of a ₦1.23trillion initiative aimed at restoring liquidity and investor confidence in Nigeria’s electricity sector.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦3.64trillion an increase of ₦353.15billion from previous week’s close, declining on Tuesday, owing to OMO auction Settlement and increasing on Wednesday due to OMO maturity into the system and thus, closing the week at a credit of ₦3.89trillion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased this week by 8bps to 22.75%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 2bps to 17.62%. The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bills decreased by 13bps, 5bps and 4bps to close at 16.76%, 17.01% and 15.85% respectively.
Next week, we expect quiet trading as Traders monitor positions ahead of the New Year.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market sentiments improved with the market appreciating this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.97% and 0.98% to close the week at 153,539.83 and ₦97.89trillion compared to 152,057.38 and ₦96.94trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.88 billion shares worth ₦63.83billion in 80,229 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 9.85 billion shares valued at ₦305.84billion that exchanged hands last week in 126,584 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods indices closed positive at 2.93%, 3.34% and 1.17% while Insurance index closed negative at -2.13% and Oil and Gas Index closed flat at 0.00% compared to previous week.
Notable gainers this week were Aluminium Extrusion Industries PLC and Austin Laz & Company PLC while Champion Brew PLC and Legend Internet PLC topped the losers list.
We anticipate a calm session next week as the year draws to a close.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 26/12/2025 | 19/12/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,443.38 | 1,464.50 | -1.44% |
| Parallel | 1,480.00 |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VOLUME TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| ABBEYBDS | 108 | 1,124,915,755 | 7.07 |
| VFDGROUP | 640 | 208,695,433 | 2.26 |
| CUSTODIAN | 345 | 137,340,538 | 5.35 |
| STERLINGNG | 922 | 135,195,103 | 0.95 |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 3,261 | 119,305,207 | 5.92 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VALUE TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| GTCO | 3,737 | 89,607,135 | 7.89 |
| ABBEYBDS | 108 | 1,124,915,755 | 7.07 |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 3,261 | 119,305,207 | 5.92 |
| CUSTODIAN | 345 | 137,340,538 | 5.35 |
| ZENITHBANK | 3,957 | 71,927,035 | 4.52 |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ALEX | 12.35 | 16.35 | 4.00 | 32.39% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 2.42 | 3.20 | 0.78 | 32.23% |
| INTBREW | 12.00 | 14.50 | 2.50 | 20.83% |
| MECURE | 55.00 | 65.20 | 10.20 | 18.55% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 44.95 | 53.00 | 8.05 | 17.91% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| LEGENDINT | 5.55 | 4.90 | -0.65 | -11.71% |
| CHAMPION | 16.95 | 15.00 | -1.95 | -11.50% |
| NEM | 26.30 | 24.10 | -2.20 | -8.37% |
| MANSARD | 14.00 | 13.00 | -1.00 | -7.14% |
| ABCTRANS | 3.50 | 3.27 | -0.23 | -6.57% |
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