GLOBAL ECONOMY
US trade officials said no partner plans to exit existing agreements after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s earlier tariff program, prompting him to impose a temporary 15.00% levy and order new investigations that could enable further duties, while the EU signaled readiness to retaliate. Latest data showed US manufactured goods orders falling 0.70% in December 2025 to $617.50billion, driven by a 1.40% drop in durable goods, mainly a 24.80% plunge in non-defense aircraft, even as computers (+3.10%), machinery (+0.50%) and metals (+2.10%) strengthened. Employment steadied at 7.50 and wage pressure jumped to 31.90, while future production expectations rose to 34.30. Crude inventories surged 15.99 million barrels to 435.80 million, while gasoline stocks fell 1.00 million barrels. Labor market resilience persisted as initial jobless claims rose slightly to 212,000 and continuing claims fell to 1.83 million. Producer prices rose 0.50% month‑on‑month in January 2026, with services up 0.80% and goods down 0.30%, pushing annual PPI to 2.90% and core PPI to 3.60%, both above expectations amid the strongest monthly core increase since July 2025.
The UK retail sector weakened further in February 2026 as the CBI retail sales balance plunged to -43.00 from -17.00, far below expectations, with soft demand sentiment near a 17‑year low, and employment falling at the fastest pace since May 2023 despite strong online sales growth. Consumer confidence also deteriorated, with the GfK Index slipping to -19.00 from -16.00, as the jobless rate rose to 5.20% and youth unemployment hit 16.40%, driving a four‑point decline in households’ assessments of personal finances.
Euro held near €1/$1.18 as Investors digested Inflation data and its implication for European Central bank (ECB) policy. Eurozone inflation fell to 1.70% in January 2026, its lowest since 2024, with core inflation easing to 2.20% and energy prices dropping 4.00%, while major economies saw softer inflation except Germany at 2.10%. Economic sentiment weakened as the ESI slipped to 98.30, driven by declines in services (5.00), industry (-7.10), and construction (-2.10), though consumer confidence improved to -12.20. Money growth strengthened, with M3 up 3.30% and M1 up 5.30%, while lending to households rose 3.00% and business lending slowed to 2.80%.
China’s offshore Yuan pulled back to around ¥6.65/$1 after a four‑session rally, following the People’s Bank of China (PBoC’s) move to cut the FX risk‑reserve ratio to 0.00% from 20.00%, a shift from its 2022 tightening and part of efforts to slow rapid currency appreciation. Meanwhile, the PBoC kept lending rates unchanged for a ninth month, holding the 1‑year LPR at 3.00% and the 5‑year at 3.50%, as policymakers balance growth support with stability risks after China met its roughly 5.00% GDP target for 2025 amid structural imbalances and weak domestic demand, while signaling potential RRR cuts and broader easing later in the year.
Next week, markets will watch the US jobs report, major economic data releases to shape global view and perspectives as well as potential responses from policy makers and central banks.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed lower last week following tech sector retreat pulling major Equities into red. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 0.95%, 0.44% and 1.31% to 22,668.21, 6,878.88 and 48,977.92, respectively.
European stocks closed higher this week, driven by gains in the mining sector and resilience from AI stocks. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 2.09%, 0.09% and 0.77% to 10,910.55, 25,284.26 and 8,580.75, respectively.
The Chinese market closed positive with major indices reaching record high as Investors position themselves for next week’s annual parliamentary meeting where policy makers are expected to set new economic targets. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix index increased by 0.82% and 3.427% to 26,630.54 and 3,938.68 respectively.
Next week, we expect more reaction from the market as more earning report are released as Investors also watchout for reactions from Policy makers to guide sentiments.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Q4 GDP Rises to 4.07% as Broad-Based Sector Gains Strengthen 2025 Growth Momentum
Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07% year-on-year in Q4 2025 up from 3.76% in Q4 2024 driven by stronger agriculture (4.00%), industry (3.88%), and services (4.15%), with services contributing 55.92% of GDP; full-year growth improved to 3.87% from 3.38% in 2024. Nominal GDP increased by 17.55% to ₦122.81 trillion, while oil output averaged 1.58mbpd, slightly above 1.54mbpd in Q4 2024. The oil sector expanded 6.79%, pushing full‑year oil growth to 8.50%, though it contracted 6.30% quarter-on-quarter. Non-oil GDP remained dominant at 97.13% of Q4 output, rising 3.99% on the back of telecoms, crop production, finance, real estate, trade, construction, and manufacturing. Global institutions remain cautiously optimistic, with the IMF projecting 3.90% growth in 2025 and 4.20% in 2026, while the World Bank forecasts 4.40% for 2026 and maintains 4.40% for 2027, signaling strengthened medium-term prospects.
CBN Cuts MPR to 26.50% as Cooling Inflation Opens Door for Growth‑Focused Easing
The CBN has lowered the Monetary Policy Rate to 26.50%, marking its second cut in five months as inflation eased slightly to 15.10% in January 2026 from 15.15% in December 2025. This follows the earlier 50bps reduction in September 2025 to 27.00%, the first cut since September 2020, signaling a shift from years of aggressive tightening aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing the currency. Key policy parameters were retained, including the asymmetric corridor at +50/-450bps, Cash Reserve Ratios at 45.00% for Deposit Money Banks and 16.00% for Merchant Banks, and the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00%. Analysts note that the easing stance could drive yield moderation in fixed income markets, making existing holdings more valuable, while the decision reflects growing confidence that inflation risks are softening enough to allow growth‑supportive measures without undermining price stability.
Next week, Investors will watch out for PMI data and signals from CBN to further provide insights into the economic performance.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market closed the week mixed‑to‑positive, supported by firmer global risk sentiment and a stable yield environment. Confidence was reinforced by improved FX liquidity and stronger foreign‑currency buffers in the banking system. Although mild mid‑week profit‑taking emerged, overall appetite for Nigerian sovereign risk remained steady, keeping benchmark yields slightly lower on a week‑on‑week basis.
Trading is expected to remain calm to mildly bullish, with Investors watching US–Iran developments and moves in US Treasury yields, while Nigeria’s firmer FX backdrop continues to anchor sentiment.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold pushed above $5,220/oz, its highest level in two months, as safe‑haven demand strengthened on renewed US trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks. The metal gained after Washington imposed 10% global tariffs under Section 122 and signaled scope for a move to 15%, while stalled US–Iran talks and fresh security warnings in Israel added support. Even with January core PPI jumping 0.80% and pushing the first expected Fed rate cut to July, gold held firm, helped by a rotation out of AI‑heavy equities and a drop in 10‑year yields to four‑month lows.
OIL
WTI hovered near $67/bbl and Brent above $72/bbl as prolonged US–Iran nuclear talks and rising regional tensions kept geopolitical risk premiums elevated ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. Mixed signals from Geneva and fresh US security advisories supported prices, helping crude extend February’s modest gains on top of January’s strong rally.
ETF
ETF flows were broadly positive, with equity and fixed‑income ETFs continuing to draw steady inflows, signalling firm risk appetite and ongoing demand for yield. Commodity ETF flows were mixed energy‑linked funds benefited from stronger oil prices, while precious‑metal ETFs saw softer interest as gold paused after recent highs. Crypto‑linked ETFs stood out, with spot Bitcoin funds posting over $1.02 billion in net inflows as institutional demand returned
Gold should trade steady to slightly firmer, supported by geopolitical risk and central‑bank demand, though upside still depends on softer US yields or a weaker dollar. Oil is likely to stay headline‑driven and volatile, with geopolitical premiums offsetting lingering supply‑glut concerns. ETF flows should remain positive, favouring equities and fixed income, while commodity flows stay selective and closely tied to energy‑market moves.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week. Liquidity opened the week at ₦2.04trillion, increasing on Tuesday by ₦341.42billion to ₦2.38trillion, with further increase on Wednesday to ₦4.05trillion owing to FAAC inflows.
Thursday and Friday saw a decline with Liquidity shrinking to ₦3.71trillion. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) and the Overnight Rate declined by 50bps and 51bps at 22.00% and 22.17.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 16bps to 17.26%.
The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for the short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds decreased by 2bps, 48bps and 71bps respectively.
Next week, Investors will focus will shift to the Nigeria Treasury Bills market where the DMO is offering a total of ₦1.15trillion across tenors as against ₦799.13billion maturing.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week bearish as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 1.11% to close the week at 192,826.80 and ₦123.76trillion compared to 194,989.77 and ₦125.16trillion last week.
On a sectoral basis, major indices closed positive as the Banking, Consumer Goods, Oil and Gas and Insurance indices rose by 5.68%, 7.04%, 8.66% and 4.73% while Industrial Goods index closed negative at -0.6% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Fortis Global Insurance Plc and Okomuoil Plc while Dar Communication Plc and ABC Transport Plc topped the losers list.
We anticipate cautious trading next week as profit taking continues to weigh sentiments.
| CURRENCY |
| (₦/$) | 27/02/2026 | 20/02/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,363.40 | 1,346.32 | 1.27% |
| Parallel | 1,350.00 | 1,350.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| GTCO | 68 | 59 | -9.00 | -13.24% |
| ZENITHBANK | 49.95 | 44 | -5.95 | -11.91% |
| DAARCOMM | 0.63 | 0.56 | -0.07 | -11.11% |
| CAVERTON | 2.54 | 2.27 | -0.27 | -10.63% |
| RTBRISCOE | 2.12 | 1.9 | -0.22 | -10.38% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | % |
| FTGINSURE | 56.70% |
| OKOMUOIL | 20.90% |
| INFINITY | 20.60% |
| MANSARD | 17.20% |
| FCMB | 16.80% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | % |
| ABCTRANS | -25.00% |
| DAARCOMM | -20.70% |
| TANTALIZER | -16.70% |
| LIVINGTRUST | -14.50% |
| UPL | -13.00% |
DISCLAIMER
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