GLOBAL ECONOMY
US construction spending fell 0.30% in January to $2.19trillion, driven by a 0.60% drop in private construction, Q4 nonfarm productivity revised down to 1.80% and manufacturing productivity sliding 2.50%, pushing unit labor costs sharply higher. Composite PMI slipped to 51.40, dragged by services (51.10) amid war‑related cost pressures, Manufacturing strengthened to 52.40 on rising new orders. Crude inventories surged for a fifth week (+6.93 million barrels). The current account deficit narrowed to $190.70billion, the smallest since 2021, supported by a shrinking goods deficit and a swing in primary income to surplus. Labor‑market signals remained stable, with jobless claims at 210,000 and continuing claims dropping to 1.82 million, even as consumer sentiment plunged to 53.30 near late‑2025 lows on rising fuel costs and geopolitical uncertainty, with one‑year inflation expectations jumping to 3.80%.
The British pound moved toward £1/$1.33 as markets doubted progress in US‑Iran negotiations despite Trump extending his deadline to April 6, while UK macro indicators reflected rising geopolitical and inflation pressures: with Investors shifting sharply toward 2–3 Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes this year. Retail sales fell 0.40% in February, and consumer confidence slid to –21. Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.40; Services PMI fell to 51.20 on weaker foreign demand and shipping disruptions; and the Composite PMI dropped to 51.00, as new business declined and input cost inflation surged. Headline CPI held at 3.00%, core inflation ticked up to 3.20%, and services inflation stayed elevated at 4.30%, while producer output prices softened to 1.70% year-on-year on falling petroleum prices.
The Euro slipped to €1/$1.15 as markets doubted progress in US‑Iran negotiations despite President Trump extending his deadline by 10 days to April 6, while Europe faced mounting economic strain as Spain’s inflation rose to 3.30%, Investors sharply repriced ECB policy toward 2–3 rate hikes in 2026, and Euro Area consumer confidence fell to –16.30. PMIs signaled weakening momentum, services activity nearly stalled at 50.10, the composite index eased to 50.50, and new orders contracted amidst supply‑chain disruptions and surging input costs tied to the Middle East conflict; manufacturing outperformed with a 45‑month high of 51.40, supported by rising orders. Bank lending remained resilient, with household credit up 3% year-on-year to €7.18trillion and business lending at 2.90%, while inflation expectations eased to 2.50% over both one and three‑year horizons.
The offshore Yuan hovered near a three‑week low at ¥6.91/$1 as fragile market sentiment driven by mixed signals on US‑Iran de‑escalation overshadowed strong Chinese economic data, with President Trump extending a pause on strikes into April while Iran dismissed US proposals as “one‑sided.” Losses were softened by a sharp rebound in China’s industrial profits, which jumped 15.20% year-on-year to ¥1.02trillion in the first two months of 2026, led by manufacturing (+18.90% to ¥732.10billion) and exceptional gains in electronics (+200%) and non‑ferrous metals (+150%). Complementing this momentum, China’s current account surplus hit a record $243.80billion in Q4 2025, driven by an all‑time‑high goods surplus of $310.30billion as exports rose 6.50% to $1.03trillion while imports grew 1.90%, helping push the full‑year surplus to a historic $735billion, even as Middle East tensions cloud the broader global outlook.
Next week, markets will remain focused on potential Middle East de‑escalation after the US extended its pause on strikes, as disrupted Persian Gulf exports heighten global growth risks, while attention shifts to a shortened US data calendar featuring the jobs report and ISM Manufacturing survey, Europe’s first post‑war Eurozone inflation print, China’s official and broader PMIs, and policy updates from the BoJ, RBA, and BoC.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks indices fell further to a seven-month low last week amid the escalating Middle East conflict and fear of trade disruption increased concerns of stagflation even as President Trump extended the halt of attacks on Iranian Infrastructures. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by -3.23%, -2.12% and -0.90% to 20,948.36, 6,368.85 and 45,166.64, respectively.
European and UK stocks closed firmly lower as higher energy prices and growing expectations of rate hikes weighed on sentiment, with initial expectations of the truce announced by President Trump fading and dampening Investors sentiments further and concerns of stagflation heightened in the Eurozone. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 indices increased by 0.49% and 0.47% to 9967.35 and 7,701.95 while German DAX decreased by -0.35% to 22,300.75 respectively.
Asian indices closed mixed this week as major stocks gained some momentum, driven by upbeat economic data released with some however still falling behind owing to the lingering uncertainty of the war in the Middle-East. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index decreased by -1.29% to 24,951.88 while the Topix index increased by 1.12% to 3,649.69 respectively.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigerian Banks Raise ₦4.61trillion as Recapitalisation Drive Attracts Strong Foreign Inflows
Nigeria’s banking sector has mobilised ₦4.61trillion in fresh capital under the CBN’s 2024–2026 recapitalisation programme, a boost driven by stronger Investor confidence and 27% participation from Foreign Investors, according to a statement following Governor Olayemi Cardoso’s remarks at the IMF/AFRITAC forum. The new inflows up ₦560billion from February’s verified figures reinforce the sector’s resilience amid subsidy removal and FX reforms, while enabling further expansion across African markets. The CBN also reaffirmed “zero tolerance” for governance breaches, imposed service restrictions on large non‑performing debtors to enforce credit discipline, and called for deeper regulatory coordination across Africa as cross‑border banking grows.
CBN Restores Full FX Repatriation for IOCs as Domestic Refining Cuts Fuel Import Bill to $10billion
The Central Bank of Nigeria has fully liberalized the FX market by allowing International Oil Companies to repatriate 100% of their export proceeds ending the 2024 rule that limited immediate access to 50% and delayed the rest for 90 days. The reform aims to deepen liquidity, stabilise the Naira, and boost Investor confidence. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s petrol import bill dropped to $10billion in 2025 from $14.06billion in 2024, driven largely by increased domestic supply from Dangote Refinery, which contributed $5.85billion to export earnings and supported a goods account surplus of $14.51billion. Natural gas exports also surged, helping offset weaker crude revenues as the current account surplus moderated to $14.04billion. In a parallel push to lift oil output, regulators have slashed approval timelines for reviving idle wells from weeks to mere hours, supporting Nigeria’s wider sector reforms including a presidential taskforce targeting $5–$10billion in fresh liquidity to reposition the country as a competitive global energy hub.
Dangote Refinery Flags Crude Supply Shortfall as It Ramps Up African Exports to 456,000 Tonnes
Dangote Refinery CEO David Bird says the plant is receiving only 5 cargos monthly instead of the 13–15 agreed under the Crude‑for‑Naira programme, stressing that crude is supplied at full benchmark prices with no discounts, while grade mismatches and limited transparency are hurting efficiency and forcing the refinery to source 30–40% of feedstock internationally sometimes paying over $18/bbl premiums. Despite the constraints, the refinery hit its 650,000 bpd nameplate capacity in February and exported 456,000 tonnes of PMS through 12 cargoes to Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana, and Togo in March 2026, signalling Nigeria’s shift toward regional fuel supply as global disruptions push African markets to diversify sourcing.
Middle East War Triggers Historic Global Energy Shock, Exposes Nigeria’s Production Weakness Despite $115 Oil
The Middle East conflict has removed 400.00 million barrels from global supply, sending oil prices up nearly 50% and closing the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments. Global fuel costs have spiked, with European jet fuel at $220/bbl and US gasoline up $1/gal, while fertilizer prices have surged 30–40%, threatening global food output. Nigeria, however, has failed to benefit from the boom: output fell to 1.31mbpd, far below the 2.06mbpd target, with 125,000bpd already pledged to creditors and Dangote Refinery receiving only 27% of required crude causing domestic petrol prices to exceed N1,250/L. NNPC plans to grow gas reserves from 210 trillion cubic feet to 600 trillion cubic feet and attract $60billion in investment, while LNG demand rises due to global disruptions. Analysts warn that Nigeria remains “production‑poor in a price‑rich market,” and only sustained reforms, higher output, and resolving refinery supply bottlenecks can unlock real gains from $100+ oil.
CBN Targets 6–9% Inflation as Nigeria’s Policy Shift Delivers Sharp Disinflation
The CBN has set a 6–9% medium‑term inflation target as it transitions to full inflation targeting, citing improved policy discipline and FX reforms that helped cut inflation from 34.80% in late 2024 to 15.10% in early 2026. Deputy Governor Muhammad Sani Abdullahi said the rules‑based framework will anchor expectations, lower risk premia, and strengthen investment confidence, though global risks such as geopolitical tensions and volatile energy prices remain key threats. The Bank highlighted FX unification, withdrawal from quasi‑fiscal lending, tighter prudential oversight, and ongoing bank recapitalisation as pillars supporting stability, while stressing that academic collaboration and clear communication are critical for credibility as Nigeria moves toward sustained single‑digit inflation.
FDI Remains Weak at Just 3.97% of Nigeria’s 2025 Capital Inflows Despite Strong Portfolio Surge
Foreign direct investment stayed marginal at 3.97% of Nigeria’s $23.22billion capital inflows in 2025, with FDI rising to $923.01million (+36.80%) but overshadowed by a surge in portfolio investment, which hit $19.74billion and accounted for 85.03% of total inflows. Quarterly data showed portfolio flows consistently dominating above 80.00% each quarter while FDI peaked at $357.80million in Q4, still far below even the weakest portfolio quarter. Equity capital made up 94.10% of FDI, rising to $868.29million, while “other capital” increased to $54.72million but remained small. The CBN’s latest diaspora remittance reforms as Nigeria works to shift from short‑term hot money to more stable long‑term investment.
Next week, Investors will watch out for PMI data and key economic release and signals from CBN on policy stands to guide sentiments.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market deepened its bearish momentum this week, with rising global geopolitical tensions fuelling a broader flight to safety. As risk aversion toward emerging‑market sovereign debt intensified, investors offloaded positions across key Nigerian maturities—particularly the FEB‑32, SEP‑28 and JAN‑31 papers—driving a sharp uptick in yields. Consequently, average Eurobond yields climbed by 29bps week‑on‑week to 7.47%, reflecting weaker demand and heightened risk repricing among overseas investors.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist barring any signs of geopolitical de‑escalation that could trigger renewed demand and potential yield compression.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold attempted a rebound late in the week, rising above $4,500/oz after a sharp collapse earlier, but overall, the metal remains deeply pressured by macro forces. Spot gold closed around $4,495/oz on March 27, recovering slightly after dropping nearly 3% the previous session amid renewed inflation fears, elevated U.S. yields, and a strong dollar. Over the past month, gold is still down 15.55%, despite being 45.74% higher year‑on‑year. Markets continue to digest the impact of surging energy prices, geopolitical risk, and fading expectations for near‑term rate cuts.
OIL
Oil markets stayed extremely volatile with conflict‑driven supply disruptions dominating sentiment. Brent crude surged to $114.81/bbl on March 27, up 6.30% on the day and nearly 47.68% higher over the month as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke nearly 20% of global flows. WTI traded around $99.64/bbl, rising 5.46% in the latest session with year‑on‑year gains of 43.66%.
ETF
Meanwhile, bond ETFs continued attracting strong inflows, with global volatility pushing investors toward lower‑risk, yield‑anchored products. ICI data shows bond ETFs added $12.44billion, while commodity ETFs saw –$1.63billion net issuance.
Gold is likely to stay volatile with a downside bias as yields and the dollar stay firm, oil will remain conflict‑driven with Brent hovering near $112–$118 and WTI around $95–$100, while bond ETFs should continue attracting inflows as commodity ETFs face further outflows.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
NTB Auction Oversubscribed as DMO Sells ₦520.67billion, 364‑Day Stop Rate Slips to 16.43%
The Nigeria Treasury Bills held on Wednesday 25th March 2026. The auction recorded strong demand, particularly on the long‑tenor (364‑day) bill, with total subscriptions reaching ₦2.89trillion.
The bid‑to‑cover ratio stood at 555x, while total allotment printed at ₦520.67billion, higher than the initial offer of ₦400billion, indicating an over sale of ₦120.67billion. This allotment was lower than the ₦691.86billion allotted at the previous auction. Stop rates for the 91‑day bill were unchanged at 15.95% while the 182‑day and 364‑day stop rate declined by 20bps each to 16.42% and 16.43%.
SEC Orders Six‑Week Recapitalisation Plans as New Capital Rules Reshape Nigeria’s Market Structure
Nigeria’s SEC has given capital‑market operators six weeks to submit board‑approved recapitalisation or licence‑downgrade plans under its March 2026 guidelines, signalling a major reset of regulatory expectations ahead of the June 30, 2027 compliance deadline. The reforms sharply raise minimum capital broker‑dealers to ₦2billion (from ₦300million), dealers to ₦1billion (from ₦100million), registrars to ₦2.50billion, underwriters/clearing firms to ₦5billion, and exchanges to ₦10billion while tightening what qualifies as regulatory capital by excluding unrealised gains, shareholder loans, client funds, and revaluation reserves. SEC DG Emomotimi Agama also unveiled a five‑pillar market‑transformation agenda focused on infrastructure upgrades, deeper product innovation, stronger investor protection, global integration, and expanded domestic participation to address Nigeria’s $100billion infrastructure financing gap. With market capitalisation rising 125% to ₦123.93trillion in 2025 and capital‑market contribution to GDP hitting 33%, the Commission expects the recapitalisation to drive consolidation, improve resilience, and reposition the market as a primary engine for long‑term national development.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦8.26trillion driven by coupon payments on the FGN 18 MAR 2030 bond, declining on Tuesday owing to OMO Auction, but Wednesday saw an increase owing to OMO maturity into the system and Thursday saw increase due tom FGN Bond Coupon inflows with Liquidity declining further on Friday to close the week at ₦7.52trillion due to NTB and OMO Auction settlements. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00% while the Overnight Rate increased by 5bps at 22.26%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 3bps to 17.63%, while the Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for the short-tenor and mid-tenor declined by 247bps and 3bps to 13.53% and 16.01% while the long-tenor bonds increased by 1bps to 15.08% respectively.
Next week, attention will shift to the Bonds market, where the DMO plans to offer ₦750billion across the FGN AUG 2030 (5-Yr Re-opening), FGN JUN 2032 (7-Yr Re-opening) and the FGN MAY 2033 (10-Yr Re-opening).
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week bearish as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.12%to close the week at 200,913.06 and ₦128.97trillion respectively compared to 201,156.86 and ₦129.13trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.95 billion shares worth ₦201.31billion in 359,642 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 8.76 billion shares valued at ₦267.25billion that exchanged hands last week in 193,473 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Insurance and Oil and Gas indices rose by 2.22% and 1.93% while the Banking, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods indices fell by -2.47%, -0.15% and -0.91 respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Zichis Agro Allied Industries Plc and Premier Paints Plc while Fidson Healthcare Plc and Livestock Feeds Plc topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect cautious as profit-taking sentiments persists.
| CURRENCY |
| (₦/$) | 27/03/2026 | 20/03/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,380.58 | 1,353.90 | 1.97% |
| Parallel | 1,415.00 | 1,405.00 | 0.71% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 8.58 | 13.79 | 5.21 | 60.72% |
| PREMPAINTS | 23.40 | 37.50 | 14.10 | 60.26% |
| JOHNHOLT | 11.85 | 18.95 | 7.10 | 59.92% |
| LEGENDINT | 6.00 | 7.50 | 1.50 | 25.00% |
| MCNICHOLS | 6.15 | 7.42 | 1.27 | 20.65% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| LIVESTOCK | 8.10 | 7.15 | -0.95 | -11.73% |
| FIDSON | 105.35 | 94.85 | -10.50 | -9.97% |
| CADBURY | 69.95 | 63.00 | -6.95 | -9.94% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 4.45 | 4.01 | -0.44 | -9.89% |
| LEARNAFRCA | 9.35 | 8.50 | -0.85 | -9.09% |
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