GLOBAL ECONOMY
Private sector employment in the US weakened notably, with an average loss of 13,500 jobs this month, compared to a loss of 2,500 in the prior period, signaling accelerated layoffs following major workforce reductions by firms such as Amazon and Target. Meanwhile, producer prices rebounded in September, rising 0.30% month-on-month after a 0.10% decline in August, driven by sharp increases in food (1.10%) and energy costs (3.50%), which pushed goods inflation to its highest level in over a year at 0.90%. Service prices remained flat, sustaining a 0.30% drop from the previous month. On an annual basis, headline Producer Price Index (PPI) held steady at 2.70%, while core PPI eased to 2.60%.
The British pound strengthened to £1/$1.32, its highest in a month, as markets welcomed the Autumn Budget and a larger-than-expected £22billion fiscal buffer, signaling borrowing discipline. The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts GDP growth of 1.50% in 2025, moderating thereafter, while inflation is revised up to 3.50% this year and 2.50% next year, above the Bank of England’s (BoE) target. Fiscal measures include extended tax threshold freezes, new wealth levies, and welfare reforms, reinforcing a cautious but stabilizing fiscal stance.
Eurozone growth remained resilient, following the releases of the GDP and Inflation figures, as the European Central Bank (ECB) signaled policy is “in a good place,” maintaining a data-dependent stance amid slowing wage growth and moderating price pressures. Fiscal policy across member states remains cautious under the reformed European Union framework, allowing flexibility for defense spending while targeting deficit reduction.
The offshore Yuan held near ¥7.08/$1, its strongest level in over a year, supported by improved US–China relations following a high-level call between Presidents Trump and Xi and renewed trade commitments. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) kept policy rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month, signaling a steady stance amid moderate growth. Industrial profits rose 1.90% year-to-date to ¥5.95trillion, slowing from 3.20% previously as private-sector earnings weakened. Sectoral performance was mixed, with strong gains in non-ferrous metals, energy, and tech manufacturing offset by steep declines in coal, oil, textiles, and chemicals, reflecting uneven demand and persistent pricing pressures.
We expect markets to focus on delayed US data releases, Eurozone inflation, UK PMI trends, and China’s manufacturing PMIs, all shaping expectations for monetary policy and global growth.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks ended November on a firm note with modest gains as risk appetite returned with Investors assigning an 80% to 85% probability that the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut within the next few weeks. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indices increased by 4.93%, 3.73%, 3.18% to 25,434.89, 6,849.09 and 47,716.42 respectively.
European stocks closed higher this week following reactions to the UK Labour party new budget supported by Investor confidence despite higher tax burdens projected to reach 38% of GDP by 2030. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 1.89%, 3.23% and 1.75% to close at 9,720.51, 23,836.79 and 8,122.71, respectively.
Chinese stocks closed higher as JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded its recommendation on China’s stocks to ‘overweight,’ citing potential upside that outweighs downside risks next year. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 2.53% and 2.45% to close the week at 25,858.89 and 3,378.44, respectively.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
CBN holds MPR at 27% as MPC retains tight policy to sustain disinflation and FX stability
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27% at its 303rd MPC meeting, reaffirming its tight stance to curb inflation and stabilize the FX market. Other parameters were unchanged: CRR at 45% for Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and 16% for Merchant Banks, 75% CRR on non-Treasury Single Account (non-TSA) public deposits, and Liquidity Ratio at 30%, while the Asymmetric Corridor was adjusted to +50/-450bps around the MPR from +250/-250bps. Governor Olayemi Cardoso cited easing headline inflation (16.05% in October vs 18.02% in September) and improved FX liquidity as signs of progress, stressing that holding rates will anchor expectations and sustain price moderation. The next MPC meeting is scheduled for February 2026, with markets watching for a potential shift toward easing if inflation continues to decline.
Nigeria’s Private Sector accelerates: PMI hits 56.40 in November, Agriculture leads with 58.20 points
Nigeria’s private sector sustained its growth streak in November 2025 as the Composite PMI rose to 56.40 points from 55.40 in October, marking the 12th consecutive month of expansion. Key sub-indices showed strong performance: Output (59.10), New Orders (56.70), and Employment (54.40), signaling rising production and demand. Agriculture led with 58.20 points, its 16th straight month of growth, while Services posted 56.80 points for the 10th month, and Industry maintained moderate expansion at 54.20 points despite raw material constraints. Broad-based improvements across sectors underscore Nigeria’s steady economic rebound, boosting investor confidence and reinforcing prospects for sustained recovery.
World Bank urges Nigeria to cut tariffs, lift import bans to tame inflation and rising poverty
The World Bank has called on Nigeria to urgently reduce high import tariffs and remove certain import bans to curb inflation and prevent worsening poverty. Country Director Mathew Verghis warned that food inflation remains around 20%, eroding household incomes and pushing poverty levels higher through 2025 and possibly 2026. He stressed that quick policy actions – such as lowering trade barriers – could provide immediate relief, while sustained reforms remain critical for long-term stability. Verghis also highlighted progress in revenue diversification and a falling debt-to-revenue ratio, but cautioned that prudent use of borrowed funds is essential. Exchange rate stability, he noted, depends on boosting exports and foreign investment rather than artificial controls.
Nigeria’s liquidity expands: Broad money supply hits ₦119.04trillion in October, NDA surges 10.65% despite NFA drop
Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) climbed to ₦119.04trillion in October 2025, up ₦1.25trillion (1.06% month-on-month) and ₦11.04trillion (10.22% year-on-year), signaling sustained liquidity growth. The surge was driven by a sharp rise in Net Domestic Assets (₦84.23trillion, +10.65%), offsetting a steep fall in Net Foreign Assets (₦34.80trillion, -16.45%). Narrow money (M1) grew modestly to ₦39.35trillion (+0.61% month-on-month), while M2 mirrored M3 at ₦119.03trillion, indicating expansion through standard deposit and credit channels. The liquidity boost follows the CBN’s first rate cut since 2020; 50bps to 27% in September but November’s decision to hold rates underscores efforts to prevent renewed inflation pressures amid strong domestic credit growth.
Nigeria’s VAT revenue holds steady at ₦2.06trillion in Q2 2025, up 32.15% year-on-year as Manufacturing leads contributions
Nigeria’s VAT collections remained stable at ₦2.06trillion in Q2 2025, reflecting a marginal 0.03% decline quarter-on-quarter but a strong 32.15% year-on-year increase from Q2 2024, according to NBS data. Local VAT payments contributed ₦1.09trillion, Foreign VAT ₦459.95billion, and Import VAT ₦508.55billion. Real estate activities posted the highest growth rate at 155.21%, followed by agriculture (23.64%) and ICT (17.75%), while health services saw the steepest decline (-68.34%). Manufacturing dominated sectoral contributions with 27.19%, trailed by ICT (20.76%) and mining (15.04%), underscoring strong industrial and digital activity amid steady tax compliance and economic recovery.
NNPCL revenue doubles to ₦45.08trillion in 2024 as Crude Oil sales surge 108% to ₦29.21trillion
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) posted a record ₦45.08trillion revenue in 2024, up 88% from ₦23.99trillion in 2023, driven by a sharp rise in crude oil sales to ₦29.21trillion (from ₦14.07trillion). Petroleum products contributed ₦9.68trillion, natural gas ₦5.20trillion, and services ₦980.46billion, reflecting stronger production, expanded exports, and rising domestic gas use. Nigeria remained the top market with ₦34.41trillion, while Switzerland, UAE, Spain, and France led foreign contributions. At company level, revenue more than doubled to ₦19.66trillion, with Panama emerging as the largest source. The performance underscores NNPCL’s continued reliance on crude exports despite diversification efforts into gas and services.
Next week, Investors attention will center on Nigeria’s Q3 2025 GDP report.
EUROBOND MARKET
African Eurobond yields fell 32bps week-on-week to 7.38%, driven by optimism over a potential US Fed rate cut in December and broad risk-on sentiment despite softer oil prices. The rally reflects investor repositioning across the curve as global liquidity expectations improve. Stronger fiscal signals and sustained reform narratives supported demand, reinforcing confidence in African sovereign debt.
Looking ahead, we expect continued interest in high-yield sovereigns as investors seek duration and rollover opportunities amid easing global monetary conditions.
Next week, we anticipate continued interest in high-yield sovereigns as investors seek duration and rollover opportunities amid easing global monetary conditions.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices rose to around $4,216/oz, up 1.40% for the week, supported by dovish Fed signals and expectations of a December rate cut. Strong central bank buying and ETF inflows continue to drive demand, leaving gold up nearly 59% year-to-date, its best annual performance in decades.
OIL
Crude oil extended losses, with Brent at $63.20/bbl. Prices were pressured by record US. output, rising inventories, and optimism over Russia–Ukraine peace talks, which could ease sanctions and boost supply. Demand indicators remain weak, reinforcing bearish sentiment.
ETFs
ETF flows were mixed amid market volatility, as Gold-backed ETFs attracted strong inflows on safe-haven demand, while fixed-income ETFs remained resilient as Investors positioned for potential rate cuts.
Next week, we expect Gold to hold firm above $4,000 with mild upside on safe-haven demand, Oil to remain under bearish pressure in the $57–$60 range amid oversupply, while ETFs see mixed flows with defensive sectors and gold-backed funds favored over tech-heavy peers.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FG Bond Auction oversubscribed by 120% as Investors snap up ₦657billion in November offer
Nigeria’s November 2025 FGN bond auction drew strong Investor demand with total bids of ₦657billion, exceeding the ₦460billion offer by 120%, according to the Debt Management Office. The auction featured two reopened instruments: 5-year Aug 2030 (₦230billion) and 7-year Jun 2032 (₦230billionn). The 7-year bond dominated with ₦509billion bids and ₦448.7billion allotment, plus ₦6billion non-competitive, clearing at a 16% marginal yield, while the 5-year issue cleared at 15.90%.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦1.17trillion, declining from previous week’s levels owing to net debit from CRR maintenance improving slightly midweek, though the Open Repo Rate and Overnight Rate experienced a decline due to the MPC’s decision on Tuesday to adjust the asymmetric corridor to +50/-450bps. By Friday, system liquidity improved further to close the week at a credit of ₦1.96trillion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) decreased by 200bps to 22.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 212bps to 22.71%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 2bps to 16.88%. The Bonds market yields closed higher this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds increased by 18bps, 24bps and 2bps to 15.75%, 15.65% and 15.23% respectively
Next week, Investor focus is expected to shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills market, where the DMO will offer ₦700billion across various tenors. Market participants will closely monitor stop rates, subscription levels, and allotment patterns as key catalysts for sentiment in the fixed-income space.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market continued its bearish momentum this week as Investors engaged in heavy profit-taking and year-end portfolio rebalancing amid concerns over fiscal reforms and elevated fixed-income yields. The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.14% to close the week at 143,520.53 and ₦91.29trillion compared to 143,722.62 and ₦91.42trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.140 billion shares worth ₦115.89billion in 102,351 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.668 billion shares valued at ₦106.26billion that exchanged hands last week in 107,998 deals.
On a sectoral basis, only the Banking Index closed positive at 0.67% while the Consumer Goods, Insurance, Industrial Goods and Oil and Gas indices all closed negative at -0.70%, -0.07%, -1.92%, and -0.23% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Ikeja Hotel PLC and NCR Nigeria PLC, while Meyer PLC and Sunu Assurances Nigeria PLC topped the losers list.
Ikeja Hotel surged due to strong earnings growth and positive sector outlook while NCR has been benefiting from renewed Investors interest in tech and payment solutions and adoption of digital banking solutions.
We anticipate cautious trading next week with slight bearish bias as Investors continue profit taking locking gains ahead of the anticipated capital gains tax adjustments for next year.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 28/11/2025 | 21/11/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,446.74 | 1,456.72 | -0.69% |
| Parallel | 1,460.00 | 1,460.00 | 0.00% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| CORNERST | 261 | 1,272,520,914 | 6.43 |
| GTCO | 4,470 | 400,775,762 | 34.20 |
| ACCESSCORP | 5,444 | 331,893,778 | 6.90 |
| FIDELITYBK | 1,887 | 240,301,510 | 4.58 |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 1,500 | 181,029,298 | 5.61 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| GTCO | 4,470 | 400,775,762 | 34.20 |
| STANBIC | 859 | 69,081,625 | 7.25 |
| MTNN | 6,158 | 15,051,584 | 6.99 |
| ACCESSCORP | 5,444 | 331,893,778 | 6.90 |
| CORNERST | 261 | 1,272,520,914 | 6.43 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| IKEJAHOTEL | 20.85 | 30.25 | 9.40 | 45.08% |
| NCR | 41.10 | 54.65 | 13.55 | 32.97% |
| UACN | 70.00 | 78.90 | 8.90 | 12.71% |
| CWG | 16.05 | 17.95 | 1.90 | 11.84% |
| VERITASKAP | 1.60 | 1.78 | 0.18 | 11.25% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MEYER | 16.15 | 13.10 | -3.05 | -18.89% |
| SUNUASSUR | 4.60 | 3.92 | -0.68 | -14.78% |
| UPDC | 5.70 | 5.02 | -0.68 | -11.93% |
| TANTALIZERS | 2.51 | 2.25 | -0.26 | -10.36% |
| ABBEYBD | 6.50 | 5.85 | -0.65 | -10.00% |
DISCLAIMER
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