Market insights

Global Market Update for the Week Ended 29th August, 2025

GLOBAL ECONOMY

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation rose 2.90% year-on-year in July 2025; the fastest pace since February and in line with expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance. US GDP grew 3.30% in Q2, rebounding from a 0.50% contraction in Q1, driven by stronger investment and consumer spending. Labor market concerns eased as initial jobless claims fell to 229,000 and continuing claims dropped to 1.95 million. The trade deficit widened to $103.60billion, with imports up 7.10% and exports down 0.10%. Political tensions escalated as President Trump moved to dismiss Fed. Governor Lisa Cook, raising concerns over Central Bank independence.

The British Pound weakened to £1/$1.34 amid fiscal concerns following calls for a windfall tax on banks profiting from Bank of England reserves. UK car production rose 5.60% year-on-year in July to 69,127 units, driven by domestic and export market growth, though commercial vehicle output remained weak. Exports to Turkey and Japan surged 35.40% and 14.90%, while shipments to the US rose 6.80%, reflecting early gains from the UK-US trade deal.

The Euro held firm at €1/$1.17 maintaining most of its 11.00% rally this year amid cautious European Central Bank (ECB) policy and global rate uncertainty. The Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 51.10, supported by a rebound in manufacturing 50.50 and steady services growth 50.70. Trade tensions with the US persist, with 15.00% tariffs imposed on most EU exports, while economic growth expectations turned more negative at -1.20% and unemployment expectations rose to 10.60%.

China injected a net ¥300billion into its banking system via the medium-term lending facility (MLF) on August 25, marking six straight months of liquidity support, alongside ¥288.40billion in seven-day reverse repos at a steady 1.40% rate. Meanwhile, China extended anti-dumping duties on phenol imports for five more years, allocated 200,000 metric tons of cotton import quotas to stabilize textile supply amid a 74.20% drop in imports, and released draft rules to curb unfair pricing on internet platforms.

Next week, Investors will look out for signals like labor data from US, Inflation and GDP releases in the Eurozone amid easing policies and trade uncertainties.

GLOBAL MARKETS

This week, US stocks closed lower, with some major stocks retracing from record highs following the disappointing earnings reports from Major Tech stocks and renewed market anxiety following political tensions between Fed Governor Lisa Cook and President Trump,  coupled with concerns of persistent inflation as core PCE rose to 2.90% in July. Compared to last week, the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices closed lower, decreasing by -0.10%, -0.19% and -0.19% to close the week at 6,460.27, 21,455.55 and 45,544.88 respectively.

In the UK and across Europe, stocks closed lower as Investors weighed global rate outlooks and economic health, while UK banks like NatWest, Lloyds, and Barclays were hit hard by a proposed windfall tax, sparking fears of tighter fiscal policy. London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100, Germany’s Deutscher Aktien (DAX) and France Cotation Assistéeen Continu (CAC) 40 indices decreased by -1.44%, -1.89% and -3.34% to 9,187.34, 23,902.21 and 7,703.9 respectively.

The Asian stock market closed lower this week with major stocks losing gains although the Equities market surged high this week. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices decreased by -1.03% and -0.83% to 25,077.62 and 3,075.

Next week, we expect cautious sentiments as Investors digest various Earnings releases, trade data, PMI releases while also on the lookout for more dovish signals from the Fed.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Agusto & Co: Nigerian Banking Sector to Hit 242.30trillion in Assets by Year-End Amid Recapitalization, Liquidity Strength, and Profit Dip

Agusto & Co.’s 2025 Nigerian Banking Industry Report projects total assets and contingents to reach ₦242.30trillion by December 2025, up 44.90% from ₦186.60trillion in 2024, highlighting the sector’s resilience despite macroeconomic headwinds. Liquidity remains robust, with the liquidity ratio expected to exceed 60%, supported by treasury yields and innovative funding strategies like ₦750billion in Commercial Paper issuances. Since 2024, banks have raised ₦2.50trillion in capital, with eight already meeting the CBN’s new minimum capital requirements ahead of the March 2026 deadline. However, the end of regulatory forbearance and reclassification of impaired loans could push the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to 6.90%, while profit before tax is forecast to decline by 19.20% in 2025, with Return On Average Equity (ROAE) falling to 27.30%. A rebound is expected in 2026 as capital is fully deployed and impairments ease, supporting Agusto’s “stable” outlook for the sector.

Nigeria-Guangxi Trade Hits $320million in 2024 as China Deepens Strategic Ties

Trade between Nigeria and China’s Guangxi region surged by 21% to $320million in 2024, marking a new milestone in bilateral relations. During a high-level visit to the Nigeria-China Strategic Partnership (NCSP) in Abuja, Guangxi’s Vice Chairman Zhang Xiaoqin emphasized the region’s readiness to expand cooperation in fruit production, tourism, digital economy, and mining. The NCSP Director-General, Joseph Tegbe, reaffirmed Nigeria’s commitment to leveraging this partnership alongside over $20billion in recent Chinese investment pledges to drive industrialization and implement key projects under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) 2024 framework.

Foreign Portfolio Investment in Nigeria Soars to 1.81trillion in July, Driven by Equities Surge

Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) in Nigeria surged by 133.09% month-on-month to ₦1.81trillion in July 2025, marking a 269.19% year-on-year increase, as Investors appetite for equities intensified. Cumulative FPI for January–July 2025 hit ₦6trillion, nearly double the same period in 2024. Domestic investors remained dominant, accounting for ₦1.66trillion in July, with institutional trades leading retail by 38%. Despite strong inflows, foreign outflows (₦95.40billion) exceeded inflows (₦50.40billion), signaling cautious optimism. The rally is underpinned by a stable FX environment, improved inflation outlook, and a robust 37% YTD gain in the All-Share Index, reinforcing Nigeria’s appeal to global investors.

FG Approves 2024–2027 Debt Strategy to Strengthen Fiscal Stability and Market Confidence

The Federal Government has approved Nigeria’s Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) 2024–2027, aiming to ensure debt sustainability, enhance fiscal stability, and deepen the domestic securities market. Developed with support from the World Bank and IMF, the MTDS sets new benchmarks: a debt-to-GDP ceiling of 60% by 2027, interest payments capped at 4.50% of GDP, and a shift in the domestic-to-external debt mix to 55:45 to reduce FX risk. It also targets longer debt maturities (minimum 10 years) and limits short-term refinancing risk. The strategy reassures investors and aligns Nigeria’s debt management with global best practices, reinforcing the government’s commitment to responsible borrowing and macroeconomic discipline.

Next week Investors will watch out for PMI data to give fresh insights into the Economy while also on the lookout for Q2 GDP growth figures.

EUROBOND MARKET

Eurobond trading surged this week, with volumes jumping 289% early on due to dovish Fed. signals, led by strong demand in Nigeria and Angola; momentum extended midweek with flows into Egypt and Kenya, supported by corporate prints from ETI and FIDBAN, though SEPLAT 2030s faced heavy selling, while macro factors like the U.S. GDP revision to 3.30% and Senegal’s IMF review later shaped sentiment, and month-end flows balanced out with strong interest in Angola 2048s, meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury remained flat, opening at 4.27% and closing at 4.22% despite rate cut expectations.


We expect current sentiments to persist next week.

DOMESTIC MARKETS

ISA 2025 Set to Propel Nigeria’s Capital Market Toward 300trillion Milestone

Nigeria’s Capital Market is on the brink of transformative growth following the enactment of the Investment and Securities Act (ISA) 2025, which aims to align the market with global standards and unlock a projected ₦300trillion valuation. During a high-level meeting in Brazil, SEC DG Dr. Emomotimi Agama described the Act as one of Africa’s most comprehensive legal frameworks, enhancing investor protection, regulatory clarity, and capital formation. President Tinubu reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to reforms that unlock capital and drive inclusive prosperity. NGX authorities called for fast-tracking state-owned enterprise listings and tax incentives to deepen market participation, while the Act’s recognition of digital assets and oversight of Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) positions Nigeria as a modern, innovation-driven investment hub.

MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME

System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦739.10billion, improving mid-week to ₦1.86trillion, strengthened on the back of CRR credits, OMO maturities. Consequently, the Short-term rates closed lower than last week, as the Open Repo Rate (ORR) and the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 240bps and 220bps to 26.50% and 26.95% respectively.

The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 92bps to 19.13%. The Bonds market traded mixed throughout the week with the average yield for the short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bonds increased by 92bps, 47bps and 46bps to 17.56%, 17.58% and 16.16%.

The FGN Bond Auction was held on Monday 25th August 2025. The auction witnessed high demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.97x. Total subscription was 1.34x the offer, at ₦268.17billion. The Debt Management Office (DMO) sold a total of ₦136.16billion, thus the auction was undersold by ₦63.84billion. The FGN 2030 Bond coupon was set at 17.945% while the FGN 2032 Bond stop rate increased by 210bps.

Next week, Investors will turn their attention to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction where the DMO is offering a total of 480billion across tenors as against the ₦324.41billion maturing.

THE EQUITIES MARKET

The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.50% and 0.49% to close the week at 140,295.50 and ₦88.77trillion compared to 141,004.14 and ₦89.21trillion last week.

A total turnover of 3.20 billion shares worth ₦85.40billion in 142,477 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.77 billion shares valued at ₦107.43billion that exchanged hands last week in 152,965 deals.

On a sectoral basis, Industrial Goods, Banking, Insurance, Consumer Goods and Oil and Gas indices closed negative at -0.36%, -1.21%, -1.02%, -0.89% and -0.18% respectively.

Notable gainers this week were McNichols PLC and NEM Insurance PLC, while Notable losers were Secure Electronic Technology PLC and Guinea Insurance PLC.

We expect cautious sentiments in the market next week.

CURRENCY


‘(₦/$)
29/08/202522/08/2025W-O-W%
NAFEM1,531.571,535.04-0.23%
Parallel1,540.001,545.00-0.32%

TOP TRADES BY VOLUME

TICKERTRADESVOLUMEVALUE(‘b)
FCMB3,308363,815,8083.96
CHAMPION1,020209,277,9933.62
ACCESSCORP6,960205,509,5295.57
STERLINGNG1,811199,292,4941.59
GTCO6,588164,221,53015.34

TOP TRADES BY VALUE

TICKERTRADESVOLUMEVALUE(‘b)
GTCO6,588164,221,53015.34
ARADEL1,96818,852,7909.60
ACCESSCORP6,960205,509,5295.57
FCMB3,308363,815,8083.96
FIRSTHOLDCO2,319115,932,8503.77

TOP GAINERS

TICKEROPENCLOSECHANGE%
MCNICHOLS3.203.800.6018.75%
NEM26.6031.204.6017.29%
BERGER32.0036.904.9015.31%
WAPIC3.213.620.4112.77%
LEARNAFRCA7.007.800.8011.43%

TOP LOSERS

TICKEROPENCLOSECHANGE%
NSLTECH1.100.85-0.25-22.73%
GUINEAINS1.771.42-0.35-19.77%
LASACO3.463.00-0.46-13.29%
UPL6.305.54-0.76-12.06%
MBENEFIT4.403.90-0.50-11.36%

DISCLAIMER

This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.

Alpha10 Group. 13, Mambolo Street, Zone 2, Wuse, Abuja. Visit us at www.alpha10group.com.

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