GLOBAL ECONOMY
US President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman after the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% in January 2026, maintaining its pause after last year’s three rate cuts. Two Governors dissented in favor of an additional reduction as policymakers highlighted solid economic activity, stabilizing labor market conditions, and still‑elevated inflation, while Chair Powell reaffirmed that current rates remain appropriate as the Fed continues to assess evolving risks. Meanwhile, the US trade deficit widened sharply to $56.82billion in November 2025 due to a rebound in goods imports (particularly pharmaceuticals, computers, and capital goods), alongside declines in key export categories such as industrial supplies, gold, crude oil, and pharmaceuticals.
UK Money Supply M4 also climbed to a new record of £3.21trillion in December 2025 from £3.20trillion, signaling continued liquidity expansion. Markets anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future as fresh data showed accelerating price pressures, reinforcing concerns over sticky inflation and potentially limiting the room to cut interest rates in the near term. However, a recent rally in the Pound, driven by broad Dollar weakness, may help ease imported inflation pressures and support inflation expectations, potentially offsetting some of the upward pressure from domestic price growth.
The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained a patient but flexible stance, keeping rates unchanged as policymakers judged the current monetary setting appropriate amid resilient economic activity, low unemployment and an inflation outlook near target. Monetary aggregates showed moderate growth, with M3 rising 2.82% to €17.23trillion while M1 growth slowed. Eurozone GDP expanded 0.30% in Q4 2025 and 1.30% year‑on‑year, with Spain and the Netherlands leading gains, and full‑year growth reaching 1.50%. Looking ahead, both the ECB and European Commission expect a slight moderation to 1.20% in 2026 before a rebound to 1.40% in 2027.
China’s economy showed a soft start to 2026, with the official NBS Manufacturing Purchasing Management Index (PMI) slipping to 49.30, signaling renewed contraction as new orders, foreign sales, employment and purchasing activity weakened, while input prices rose at a faster pace and business confidence fell sharply. The Non‑Manufacturing PMI also dropped to 49.40, reflecting subdued post‑holiday demand, ongoing property‑sector stresses and soft labor market conditions, while pricing pressures remained largely stable. As a result, the NBS Composite PMI edged down to 49.80, indicating a broad loss of momentum across both manufacturing and services, partly due to seasonal factors and severe winter weather disruptions. Despite this softer activity backdrop, industrial firms’ profits grew 0.60% in 2025, driven by gains in manufacturing and utilities, although state‑owned and mining enterprises recorded notable profit declines.
The first week of February will follow erratic movements in global markets, recently marked by unprecedented volatility for metals and concerns of a slipping Dollar.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed lower on Friday, as higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar weighed on risk appetite after President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Fed Chair Powell. Markets viewed the pick as reinforcing a more disciplined and cautious easing trajectory. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices decreased by -0.21% and -0.42% to 25,552.39 and 48,892.47, while the S&P 500 index increased by 0.34% to 6,939.03.
European stocks closed higher supported by gains in banks, while declines in metals prices weighed on miners. Banking shares benefitted from lower expectations of global rate cuts and a broader shift toward risk assets. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 index increased by 0.79% to 10,223.54, while the CAC 40 and German DAX indices decreased by -0.20% and -1.45% to close at 8,126.53 and 24,538.81.
Asian markets closed mixed on Friday, reversing gains from earlier in the week as mining stocks declined following a retreat in metals prices. Despite the Friday sell-off, Chinese stocks gained, supported by expectations of fresh policy support and advances in artificial intelligence and related technologies. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng increased by 2.38% to 27,387.11 while the Topix index fell by -1.75% to 3,566.32, respectively.
Global equities are expected to open next week with a cautiously positive bias, supported by resilient global growth, constructive earnings outlooks, and AI‑driven momentum, yet tempered by rich valuations and potential bouts of volatility amid uneven monetary policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Naira Extends Gains to Close at ₦1,386.55/$ at NAFEM, Strengthens Across Markets as Reserves Hit $46.18billion
The naira sustained its recovery through the week, appreciating 0.75% on Friday to close at ₦1,386.55/$ at the NAFEM window, up from ₦1,396.00/$ the previous day, while also strengthening 0.66% in the parallel market to ₦1,444.00/$ from ₦1,454.00/$, reflecting improved FX liquidity and easing speculative pressure. Across the week, the Naira advanced from ₦1,421.90/$ last Friday to ₦1,386.55/$, representing a 2.49% week‑on‑week gain, supported by narrowing market spreads as the gap between official and street rates compressed to ₦57.45 from ₦105.00 a day earlier. This upward momentum comes amid rising external buffers, with Nigeria’s foreign reserves increasing to $46.18 billion, their highest in nearly eight years, reinforcing FX market confidence. The CBN projects reserves to climb further to $51.04billion in 2026, aided by stronger inflows and structural reforms aimed at improving transparency, stabilising pricing, and sustaining medium‑term naira support.
NNPC Unveils Gas Master Plan 2026, Targets 10.00bcf/day Output and $60.00billion Investments by 2030
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd has launched the Gas Master Plan 2026, a commercially driven execution roadmap aimed at raising national gas production to 10.00 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) by 2027 and 12.00 bcf/d by 2030, leveraging Nigeria’s 210.00 tcf proven gas reserves and up to 600.00 tcf upside. Unveiled in Abuja, the plan prioritises cost optimisation, operational excellence, market expansion, and over $60.00 billion in new investments across power, CNG, LPG, Mini‑LNG, and industrial supply. Officials emphasised a shift from policy to implementation, building on recent reforms including the PIA and the Decade of Gas initiative. The roadmap also aligns with Nigeria’s newly launched online gas trading and settlement platform and complements the NUPRC’s report showing 2.71 trillion standard cubic feet of gas produced in 2025.
Nigeria’s Crude Exports Set to Fall 14.00% in March as Major Offshore Grades Decline
Nigeria’s crude oil exports are projected to drop by 14.00% in March 2026 to about 793,000 bpd, down from 922,000 bpd in February, driven by sharp reductions in key offshore grades, according to preliminary loading schedules. While Qua Iboe is expected to rise to 184,000 bpd (from 170,000 bpd) and Bonny Light to 282,000 bpd (from 269,000 bpd), these gains are outweighed by steep declines in Bonga at 61,000 bpd (from 139,000 bpd) and Forcados at 266,000 bpd (from 344,000 bpd). The fall comes amid operational volatility, Niger Delta insecurity, infrastructure constraints, shifting market preferences, and underscores revenue risks for a country heavily reliant on crude exports, which reached ₦37.70trillion in the first nine months of 2025, when Nigeria also emerged as the top African crude exporter to the US
Nigeria Slashes Oil Block Signature Bonus to $3.00million–$7.00million as NUPRC Opens 50 Blocks for 2025 Licensing Round
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission has cut the 2025 licensing round signature bonus to $3.00m–$7.00m, down from $10.00m in 2024 and far below the historical $200.00m levels, as it opens 50 oil and gas blocks-including 15 onshore, 19 shallow‑water, 15 frontier, and 1 deepwater-to attract credible long‑term investors. CEO Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan said the reduced bonus, approved by President Tinubu, lowers entry barriers and prioritises technical capacity, financial strength, and fast‑track production, while ensuring a transparent, merit‑based, PIA‑compliant five‑stage bid process. The round, supported by a digital portal launched in December 2025, is positioned to grow reserves, boost output, and enhance energy security, building on previous transparent licensing rounds that concluded without litigation.
Cash Outside Nigeria’s Banking System Hits Record ₦5.40trillion in 2025, Now 94.76% of Total Currency in Circulation
Nigeria’s currency outside the banking system surged to a record ₦5.40trillion in December 2025 up from the previous ₦5.13trillion peak representing 94.76% of total currency in circulation, which also reached an all‑time high of ₦5.73trillion, according to CBN money‑supply data. Despite digital payments expanding by over 300.00% since 2020, cash usage continues to rise, driven by festive‑season demand, structural trust gaps, limited banking infrastructure (5,500 branches for 100+ million customers), and persistent network downtime. The spike contrasts sharply with early 2023, when the Naira redesign policy pushed currency outside banks down to ₦792.10billion, but under Governor Yemi Cardoso, liquidity management has shifted toward orthodox monetary tools rather than cash suppression. The surge has also fueled rapid growth in agency banking as PoS terminal prices jumped 30.00%–100.00% between 2023 and 2025 (entry‑level units at ₦21,500; smart terminals ₦62,000–₦85,000) amid tighter regulation, including geo‑tagging and penalties starting at ₦5.00 million. Experts warn that deepening cultural reliance on cash and infrastructure gaps mean physical currency will remain dominant even as digital transactions accelerate.
Nigeria’s Pension Assets Jump 20.08% to ₦27.45trillion in 2025 as Equities and FGN Securities Drive Growth
Nigeria’s pension assets rose 20.08% in 2025 to ₦27.45trillion, up from ₦22.86trillion, supported by strong gains in domestic equities, Federal Government securities, and selective alternative assets. Equities surged 64.36% year‑to‑date, with domestic ordinary shares hitting ₦3.96trillion, while FGN securities maintained dominance at 59.50% of total assets, led by bonds held to maturity at ₦12.83trillion (up 6.21%). Overall assets grew 1.48% in December, reflecting a more cautious end‑of‑year stance as cash holdings increased and equity inflows flattened at 0.05% month‑on‑month. Growth was driven mainly by RSA active funds, which added ₦3.27trillion (up 20.82%), while Fund II alone accounted for 56.00% of total asset expansion. Despite volatility, the industry enters 2026 with assets firmly above ₦27trillion, balancing risk management with gradual diversification into productive sectors.
AfDB approves $3.90million Mission 300 support to accelerate electricity access across 13 African Countries
The African Development Bank has approved a $3.90million, two‑year AESTAP Mission 300 Phase II project to help Nigeria and 12 other African countries translate their national Energy Compacts into real electricity connections as part of Mission 300, which targets providing power to 300 million Africans by 2030. The programme will deliver hands‑on technical assistance, strengthen utility performance, improve regulatory frameworks, optimise tariff structures, and embed expert advisers within national monitoring units. Benefiting countries include Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, DRC, Tanzania, Uganda, Malawi, Namibia, Lesotho, Madagascar, Gabon, Mauritania, and Chad. Phase II builds on a $1million Phase I approved in December 2025, while complementing broader AfDB financing such as a $500million loan to Nigeria and $100million to the EAAIF to boost regional infrastructure development.
Next week, we anticipate the release of PMI data to further provide insight into the Economy and sectorial performance.
EUROBOND MARKET
African Eurobonds started the week mildly bullish, supported by firmer oil prices, softer US Treasury yields mid‑week, and improved global risk appetite, which helped Nigerian sovereign yields compress by around 6bps to 7.05%, with strong buying interest in short‑ and mid‑tenor papers. However, markets reversed sharply on Thursday and Friday following renewed risk‑off sentiment triggered by heightened uncertainty over the Fed’s easing path and volatility in US Treasury yields, prompting global Investors to trim risk exposure. This late‑week sell‑off pushed African Eurobond prices lower, with Nigeria’s benchmark Eurobond yield climbing toward 7.30% as offshore Investors unwound positions amid concerns around inflation risks and shifting expectations for US rate cuts.
African Eurobonds are expected to see cautious, two-way trading next week, with selective buying in high‑yield, oil‑linked credits but overall subdued activity as sentiment remains sensitive to US data and Fed signals after last week’s volatility.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices surged toward the $5,000/oz threshold during the week, driven by geopolitical anxieties and market volatility, with spot gold touching an intraday high of $4,995/oz on January 23 before easing slightly on profit‑taking. The metal saw extreme price swings throughout the week as traders reacted to developments around US President Trump’s statements at Davos and shifting risk sentiment, keeping gold firmly near record highs despite late‑week pullbacks.
OIL
Oil markets experienced similar turbulence, as inventories fluctuated and winter‑related supply disruptions influenced prices, while geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela added to the volatility.
ETFs
ETF flows were mixed, with digital‑asset ETFs witnessing significant outflows, nearly $1billion exiting US‑listed Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, underscoring elevated market stress and institutional derisking. Meanwhile, some traditional ETF categories such as equities and active fixed‑income funds continued to attract inflows through January, reflecting repositioning ahead of shifting Fed expectations.
Gold is expected to remain well‑supported by medium‑term Fed rate‑cut expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, while Oil is likely to trade within a tight range, with geopolitical risks providing intermittent support and ETF flows are expected to stay positive, driven mainly by fixed‑income demand and continued allocations to commodity funds, especially gold ETFs.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FGN January Bond Auction 26th January 2026
The Federal Government of Nigeria’s bond auction held on Monday, 26th January 2026 with exceptionally strong demand and total bids reaching ₦2.50trillion, representing 2.77x the amount offered. The 5, 7‑ and 10‑year reopenings recorded a robust 1.62x bid‑to‑cover ratio, signalling strong Investor appetite for duration despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) allotted ₦1.54trillion, overshooting the offer size and resulting in an oversale of ₦644.68 billion, reflecting aggressive bidding across the curve.
Significantly, stop rates on all three instruments declined sharply from prior auction levels as demand pushed yields lower:
- FGN 2031: down 171bps to 17.62%
- FGN 2034: down 250bps to 17.50%
- FGN 2035: down 508bps to 17.52%
Overall, the auction outcome indicates renewed investor confidence, improved liquidity conditions, and continued preference for high‑yielding sovereign paper as rates reset downward across key maturities.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦3.88trillion, an increase of ₦1.13trillion from the previous week’s close, increasing further on Tuesday by ₦102.67billion to ₦3.99trillion and later improving mid-week on Wednesday significantly by ₦2.19trillion to ₦6.18trillion due to credits from OMO Maturities, it however declined on Friday by ₦1.88trillion to ₦4.30trillion due to FGN Auction Bond settlement. As at Friday, System Liquidity declined by ₦2.44trillion to open the day at ₦1.87trillion following settlement of OMO auction held on Thursday. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and the Overnight Rate (OVN) increased by 357bps each to 26.07% and 26.36% respectively.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed on a negative note this week as the NGX All-Share Index depreciated by 0.09% while Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.18% to close the week at 165,370.40 and ₦106.15trillion respectively compared to 165,512.18 and ₦105.96trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.09 billion shares worth ₦81.51billion in 222,185 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.75billion shares valued at ₦99.87billion that exchanged hands last week in 237,179 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking index closed negative, decreasing by -0.63% compared to the previous week while the Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods, Insurance and Oil and Gas indices close positive, increasing by 0.69%, 0.09%, 0.81% and 0.06% compared to previous week.
Notable gainers this week were Zichis Agro Allied Industries PLC and Omatek Ventures PLC while Living Trust Mortgage Bank PLC and Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals PLC topped the losers list.
LISTINGS
Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc: Listing of 125,000,000 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each at N80.00 per Share Offered through Private Placement
Presco Plc: Listing of 166,666,667 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo Each: additional 166,666,667 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of Presco Plc (the Company) were on Friday, 30 January 2026, listed on the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
We anticipate the cautious trading as we near corporate action release and companies submit their Full Year Audited Financials for 2025 to further shapen Investors insight and appetite.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 30/01/2026 | 23/01/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,386.55 | 1,421.63 | -2.47% |
| Parallel | 1,440.00 | 1,485.00 | -3.03% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VOLUME TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| VERITASKAP | 1,621 | 177,332,142 | 0.40 |
| CUTIX | 1,575 | 172,032,817 | 0.57 |
| NSLTECH | 1,699 | 164,017,075 | 0.17 |
| CHAMS | 3,776 | 151,772,063 | 0.75 |
| ACCESSCORP | 9,642 | 143,491,121 | 3.25 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VALUE TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| GTCO | 8,312 | 111,128,734 | 10.96 |
| ARADEL | 3,591 | 13,397,032 | 10.43 |
| ZENITHBANK | 8,444 | 124,487,147 | 8.86 |
| MTNN | 13,893 | 8,301,117 | 4.77 |
| ACCESSCORP | 9,642 | 143,491,121 | 3.25 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 2.62 | 4.19 | 1.57 | 59.92% |
| OMATEK | 2.01 | 3.00 | 0.99 | 49.25% |
| UHOMREI | 71.35 | 94.85 | 23.50 | 32.94% |
| MORISON | 7.52 | 9.99 | 2.47 | 32.85% |
| SCOA | 23.80 | 31.60 | 7.80 | 32.77% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NEIMETH | 13.25 | 9.80 | -3.45 | -26.04% |
| LIVINGTRUST | 5.15 | 4.05 | -1.10 | -21.36% |
| MAYBAKER | 43.50 | 35.00 | -8.50 | -19.54% |
| LIVESTOCK | 7.30 | 6.30 | -1.00 | -13.70% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 4.49 | 3.90 | -0.59 | -13.14% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
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