GLOBAL ECONOMY
US President Donald Trump concluded major trade deals with China, Vietnam, Japan, and Malaysia, reducing tariffs on Chinese goods by 10% to 47%, securing rare-earth access, and resuming soybean imports. The Fed cut rates by 25bps to 3.75%–4.00%, citing employment risks and persistent inflation, with another cut possible in December. Private firms added ~57,000 jobs over four weeks.
UK’s retail sales declined for the 13th straight month (CBI index at -27), with expectations worsening to -39, as shoppers await Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November 26 budget. Shop price inflation eased to 1.00%, while food inflation dropped to 3.70% from 4.50%, aided by falling global sugar costs. Mortgage approvals rose to 65,900, the highest in nine months, with the effective interest rate on new mortgages down to 4.19%. Net mortgage lending hit £5.50billion, and gross lending rose to £24.90billion. Consumer credit growth slowed to £1.49billion, with annual credit card borrowing up 10.80%.
The Euro weakened toward €1/$1.15 amid cautious European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) commentary and lingering global uncertainties. The Eurozone economy in Q3 2025 showed signs of resilience, expanding 0.20% quarter-on-quarter and 1.30% year-on-year, slightly above expectations. Spain led growth at 2.80%, while Germany and Italy stagnated. Bank lending rose 2.60% to households and 2.90% to businesses. Inflation eased to 2.10% from 2.20%, nearing the ECB’s 2% target, with core inflation stable at 2.40%. Unemployment held at 6.30%, with youth unemployment at 14.40%. The ECB kept rates unchanged (refinancing at 2.15%, deposit at 2.00%), signaling confidence in the recovery
The Yuan held steady around ¥7.11/$1, reflecting Investor caution amid weak PMI data and lingering trade uncertainties. Urban employment rose with 10.57 million new jobs created by September, achieving 88.08% of the annual target, while unemployment fell to 5.20% from 5.30%. Youth joblessness dropped to 17.70% from 18.90%, its lowest since June. Industrial profits climbed 3.20% to ¥5.37trillion, led by private firms (+5.10%) and sectors like electricity (+14.40%) and agriculture (+12.50%), though coal (-51.10%) and oil (-13.30%) lagged. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) fell 10.40% to ¥573.75billion from a 12.70% decline in August. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.00 from 50.50, its lowest since April, marking seven months of contraction, while services PMI hovered at 50.10 amid weak demand. Despite a trade truce extension with the US, economic momentum remains subdued, prompting expectations of further stimulus.
Next week, investors will look out for monetary policy signals from major economies outlook and other private-sector reports to guide sentiments, even as the US shutdown persists.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks closed higher despite erasing early gains on Friday due to mixed earnings, AI optimism and Nvidia’s partnership with south Korean firm. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.75%, 0.71%, and 2.24%, respectively, closing at 47,562.87, 6,840.20, and 23,724.96 respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, major stock indices closed mixed with pull back from some major stocks as Investors weighed a lot of corporate earnings release and economic data, trimming their exposure in riskier assets. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 index increased by 0.74% to close at 9,717.25 while the German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by 1.18% and 1.27% to close at 23,954.45, and 8121.07 respectively.
The Asian stock market closed mixed with major stock extending losses as disappointing manufacturing and services data weighed on sentiments. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.97% to close the week at 25,906.65 while the Topix Index rose by 1.91% to close the week at 3,331.83.
Next week, cautious trading is expected as investors digest more earnings release to guide sentiments.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Remittance Flows Drop by $193million in Q1 2025 Amid FX Pressures and Global Headwinds
Nigeria’s International Money Transfer Operator (IMTO) inflows fell by 17.80% year-on-year to $888.39million in Q1 2025, down from $1.08billion in Q1 2024, signaling weakening diaspora remittance momentum. Monthly declines were sharpest in January (−27.90%), followed by February (−11.60%) and March (−12.70%). Despite the drop, inflows remain above Q1 2023 levels, showing resilience. The decline comes after a strong 2024 performance, when IMTO inflows surged 44.50% to $4.76billion, driven by CBN reforms under Governor Olayemi Cardoso. However, global inflation, tighter labor markets abroad, and domestic FX challenges now threaten remittance stability, a key pillar of Nigeria’s foreign exchange strategy.
Tinubu Approves 15% Import Duty on Petrol and Diesel, NNPCL Moves to Revive Refineries
President Bola Tinubu has approved a 15% ad-valorem import duty on petrol and diesel, expected to raise pump prices by ₦99.72 per liter. The directive, conveyed to FIRS and NMDPRA, aims to align import costs with domestic realities and reduce Nigeria’s ₦4trillion H1 2025 fuel import bill. In response, NNPCL announced plans to revive Nigeria’s three refineries, seeking technical equity partners after years of costly but ineffective maintenance. Despite spending over $3billion, the refineries remain largely inactive. The move comes amid efforts to boost local refining and ease pressure on foreign reserves strained by fuel imports.
Reps Approve Tinubu’s $2.35billion Loan, $500million Sukuk to Bridge Budget Gap and Fund Infrastructure
The House of Representatives has approved President Tinubu’s request to borrow $2.35billion to help finance Nigeria’s ₦9.28trillion 2025 budget deficit, alongside a $500million debut sovereign sukuk issuance in the international capital market. The borrowing plan includes Eurobonds, syndicated loans, and direct financing from global institutions. The sukuk aims to fund critical infrastructure and diversify Nigeria’s funding sources. Nigeria’s public debt hit ₦152.40trillion as of September 2025 from ₦149.39trillion in March 2025, up 22.80% year-on-year. The move follows Senate approval of a broader $21.50billion borrowing plan and ₦757billion bond issuance for pension arrears.
Nigeria’s Money supply M3 Contracts to ₦117.78trillion
Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) fell by 1.60% to ₦117.78trillion in September 2025. The decline was driven by a 2.50% drop in net domestic assets, reflecting tighter credit conditions following a hike in the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) to 45% for banks and 75% for non-TSA public deposits. While net foreign assets rose slightly to ₦41.66trillion, they couldn’t offset the domestic contraction. Narrow money (M1) and M2 also dipped, signaling reduced consumer and business liquidity. The data underscores the tension between easing rates and tightening liquidity controls, ahead of the next MPC meeting in late November.
Cash Hoarding Hits ₦4.47trillion as 90% of Nigeria’s Currency Remains Outside Banks
Despite a 1.60% drop in Nigeria’s broad money supply to ₦117.78trillion in September 2025, cash held outside banks rose to ₦4.47trillion, accounting for 90.20% of total currency in circulation. This reflects a persistent trend of cash hoarding, up 11.20% year-on-year, driven by distrust in banks, high transaction costs, and dominance of informal trade. The Central Bank’s recent rate cut to 27% was paired with tighter liquidity controls, limiting credit expansion and possibly fueling the preference for physical cash. Analysts warn that elevated cash outside banks weakens monetary policy transmission and hampers formal sector growth.
Private Sector Credit Falls to ₦72.5trillion, Government Borrowing Surges
Credit to Nigeria’s private sector declined to ₦72.50trillion in September 2025, down from ₦75.90trillion in August, marking the sixth monthly drop this year. The contraction reflects weak credit demand, elevated inflation, and banks’ preference for risk-free government lending. Meanwhile, credit to the government rose by over ₦1.20trillion to ₦24.15trillion, highlighting a crowding-out effect. Analysts warn that declining private sector credit could undermine growth, job creation, and productivity, as businesses struggle to access affordable financing amid tight liquidity and economic uncertainty.
Banks Flood CBN with ₦2.62trillion as Lending Slows Amid High Rates, Liquidity Surge
Nigerian banks ramped up deposits with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), peaking at ₦2.62trillion on October 24 via the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF), reflecting a cautious stance amid elevated interest rates and credit risk. Liquidity surged, with opening balances rising from ₦192.65billion mid-week to ₦637.59billion by Friday, while borrowing from the CBN’s Standing Lending Facility (SLF) dropped to ₦137.10billion, signaling easing funding pressures. Analysts attribute the trend to monetary tightening, with the Monetary Policy Rate at 27% and SDF returns near 25.75%, making risk-free placements more attractive than lending to a sluggish private sector. The CBN’s liquidity sterilization via OMO sales and NTB redemptions further shaped cash flows, underscoring a financial system flush with cash but hesitant to lend.
Next week, Investors will be on the lookout for PMI and other economic data to guide sentiments further.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds ended the week on a bullish trajectory, supported by improved global risk sentiment and firmer oil prices. Benchmark yields declined by 22bps w/w to 7.37%, reflecting growing investor appetite and optimism around Nigeria’s external position.
Next week, we expect positive sentiment to persist in Market.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FIRS Imposes 10% Withholding Tax on Treasury Bills and Bonds, Ending Longstanding Exemption
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has mandated a 10% withholding tax on interest earned from short-term securities including treasury bills, corporate bonds, promissory notes, and bills of exchange marking a major policy shift from previous exemptions. Interest on federal government bonds remains tax-free. The tax, deducted at source, may be credited unless deemed final. Analysts warn the move could dampen investor appetite for short-term instruments, previously favored for their liquidity and returns. FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji emphasized strict compliance to avoid penalties, reinforcing provisions under the Companies Income Tax Act and 2024 Withholding Tax Regulations.
Investor Demand Surges Despite Lower Yields in Nigeria’s October Bond Auction
Nigeria’s October 2025 bond auction saw strong investor demand despite falling yields, with the five-year FGN AUG 2030 bond clearing at 15.83% (down from 16.00%) and the seven-year FGN JUN 2032 note at 15.85% (down from 16.20%). Subscriptions for the seven-year paper hit ₦1.06 trillion, yet the Debt Management Office (DMO) cut total allotments by 45.6% to ₦313.77 billion, signaling a cautious borrowing stance. The move reflects efforts to manage debt servicing costs amid robust liquidity and investor confidence in sovereign instruments. Analysts expect further yield compression if supply remains restrained and liquidity stays elevated.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity was stable during the week supported by continuous Deposit Money Banks (DMB) placements at the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility (SDF). Compared to last week, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 3bp to 24.86%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield remained unchanged week-on-week at 17.26%.
The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor bonds increased by 3bps to 16.09 while the average yield for the mid-tenor bonds decreased by 3bps to 15.82% and the average yields for the long tenor bonds remained unchanged at 15.57% respectively.
Next week, attention will shift to the Nigerian Treasury bills market where the DMO is offering a total of ₦650billon across the three tenors as against ₦662.76billion maturing.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.98% to close the week at 154,126.46 and ₦97.83trillion compared to 155,645.05 and ₦98.79trillion last week.
A total turnover of 7.48 billion shares worth ₦145.43billion in 159,487 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.70 billion shares valued at ₦129.89billion that exchanged hands last week in 148,077 deals.
On a sectoral basis, industrial goods, consumer goods, insurance and banking indices closed negative at -1.02%, -2.73%, -3.47% and -2.11% while the Oil and Gas index closed positive at 0.30%.
Notable gainers this week were Aso Savings and Loans PLC and Julius Berger NIG PLC, while Omatek Ventures PLC and John Holt PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the market to trade mixed in the short term with potential for improved Investor sentiment driven by the release of favorable corporate actions.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 31/10/2025 | 24/10/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,421.73 | 1,457.96 | -2.48% |
| Parallel | 1,455.00 | 1,495.00 | -2.68% |
TOP GAINERS
| TOP GAINERS TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ASOSAVINGS | 0.66 | 1.03 | 0.37 | 56.06% |
| JBERGER | 134.00 | 151.80 | 17.80 | 13.28% |
| OANDO | 42.95 | 48.05 | 5.10 | 11.87% |
| BERGER | 38.90 | 42.50 | 3.60 | 9.25% |
| ETI | 36.00 | 38.95 | 2.95 | 8.19% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| OMATEK | 1.55 | 1.21 | -0.34 | -21.94% |
| JOHNHOLT | 6.50 | 5.40 | -1.10 | -16.92% |
| CAVERTON | 6.50 | 5.45 | -1.05 | -16.15% |
| NAHCO | 124.85 | 105.00 | -19.85 | -15.90% |
| E-TRANZACT | 15.00 | 12.70 | -2.30 | -15.33% |
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