GLOBAL ECONOMY
US job openings rose to 7.23 million, but private employers cut 32,000 jobs, and year-to-date layoffs reached 946,430; the highest since 2020. Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 50.00, signaling stagnation, while S&P Global Services (PMI) held at 54.20, showing solid expansion. Composite PMI eased to 53.90, the slowest since June. A government shutdown began October 1, delaying key data and risking GDP losses of 0.10–0.20% per week. The US plans equity investments in Australian critical minerals firms to counter China’s export curbs as trade talks with China continue, with soybeans and rare earths as key issues.
The British Pound steadied at £1/$1.35, with markets eyeing the November budget and Bank of England policy, as inflation is expected to peak at 4.00% before easing toward the 2.00% target. UK credit rose to £1.69billion in August from £1.67billion in July, led by £1.00billion in personal loans, while credit card borrowing dipped to £0.70billion from £0.80billion. The current account deficit widened to £28.90billion (3.80% of GDP) from £21.20billion, driven by a £16.80billion primary income shortfall and a £61.70billion goods trade deficit, despite a £53.80billion services surplus. GDP grew 0.30% quarter-on-quarter and 1.40% year-on-year, supported by services and construction. Services PMI fell to 50.80 from 54.20, its weakest since April, amid cautious hiring and subdued new work. Manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.20 from 50.00, marking a year of contraction.
The Euro traded near €1/$1.17, supported by European Central Bank’s (ECB) steady rate stance. Composite PMI rose to 51.20 from 51.00, signaling the fastest private sector expansion since May 2024. Services PMI climbed to 51.30 from 50.50, while manufacturing PMI fell to 49.80 from 50.70, continuing a contraction trend. Inflation rose to 2.20% from 2.00%, slightly above the ECB’s 2.00% target, with core inflation steady at 2.30%. Producer prices declined 0.30% month-on-month and 0.60% year-on-year, driven by a 1.30% drop in energy costs. Unemployment edged up to 6.30%, with youth unemployment stable at 14.00%.
China’s current account surplus surged to $128.70billion in Q2 2025, more than double last year’s figure, driven by a $219.10billion goods surplus. Meanwhile, the US maintains 55% tariffs on Chinese imports, with no immediate plans to ease them, though talks continue expanding trade in non-sensitive goods. China also opened its stock option market to foreign investors, granting access to a ¥100trillion market, and expanded foreign participation in bonds and digital Yuan initiatives.
Next week, investors will be on the lookout for updates, US shutdown talks and Fed minutes, UK housing data, Eurozone retail sales, and China’s market reopening.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks gained as Investors focused on US–China trade talks and upcoming policy signals. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, & Nasdaq indices closed higher, increasing by 1.10%, 1.09% and 1.32% to close the week at 46,758.28, 6,715.79 and 22,780.51 respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, major stocks closed positive as easing inflation trends and expectations of more dovish monetary policy shaped sentiment. London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index, Germany’s Deutscher Aktien (DAX) & France’s Cotation Assistée en Continu (CAC) 40 closed higher, increasing by 2.22%, 2.69% and 2.68% to close the week at 9,491.25, 24,378.80 and 8,081.54 respectively.
The Asian stock market traded mixed, supported by policy easing in China and optimism over regional growth. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 3.88% to close the week at 27,140.92 while the Topix index closed lower, decreasing by –1.82% to 3,129.17 respectively.
Next week, cautious trading is expected as Investors focus on US–China trade talks, global PMI releases, Central Bank policy signals, key US labor market data, and Eurozone inflation figures amid lingering geopolitical tensions.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
PENGASSAN Strike Disrupts Nigeria’s Oil, Gas and Power Output; NNPC Warns of Billions in Revenue Losses
Nigeria’s oil and gas production plunged during a nationwide strike by PENGASSAN, triggered by worker dismissals at the Dangote Refinery. The strike, which began on September 28 and ended October 1 after government intervention, caused daily production deferments of 283,000 barrels of oil, 1.7 billion standard cubic feet (scf) of gas, and over 1,200 MW of power impacting 16% of oil output, 30% of gas sales, and 20% of electricity generation. NNPC Ltd’s CEO Bayo Ojulari warned of immediate and compounding revenue losses, systemic energy risks, and delays at key facilities including Bonga, Oben, and Nigeria LNG. Though the strike has been suspended, NNPC cautioned that vulnerabilities remain.
Nigeria’s money supply Hits ₦119.50trillion in August 2025 amid inflation concerns
Nigeria’s broad money supply (M2) surged to ₦119.52trillion in August 2025, up from ₦117.40trillion in June, reflecting a year-on-year rise from ₦107trillion in August 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Net Foreign Assets rose slightly to ₦40.90trillion, while Net Domestic Assets climbed to ₦78.58trillion, driven by increased credit to both government and private sectors. Despite the liquidity expansion, narrow money (M1) fell to ₦39.30trillion, suggesting tighter cash availability. In response to inflationary pressures, the CBN cut the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27% and adjusted its policy corridor, while maintaining high reserve requirements for banks.
Nigeria spends $2.86billion on External Debt Servicing in 8 Months, consumes 69% of Forex outflows
Nigeria spent $2.86billion on external debt servicing between January and August 2025, accounting for 69.10% of total foreign payments of $4.14billion, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria. Though down from $3.06billion in the same period of 2024, debt repayments continue to dominate forex outflows, with nearly $7 of every $10 spent going to debt service. Monthly payments fluctuated sharply, peaking at $632.36million in March. Despite this, Nigeria’s external reserves rose above $42billion; the highest in six years driven by improved oil output, even as crude prices remain below the $75 budget benchmark.
PenCom’s Pension Boost 1.0 raises monthly payouts to ₦14.80billion, covers over 844,000 retirees
Under the Pension Boost 1.0 initiative, the National Pension Commission (PenCom) increased monthly pension payments from ₦12.16billion to ₦14.84billion in June 2025, benefiting over 241,000 retirees; 80% of those under Programmed Withdrawal. Speaking at a joint stakeholders’ conference with the National Salaries, Incomes and Wages Commission, PenCom revealed that over 10 million Nigerians are now covered under the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS), with total pension assets exceeding ₦25trillion. More than 844,000 retirees receive steady benefits, while reforms under Pension Revolution 2.0 aim to improve governance, expand coverage, and introduce free health insurance for retirees. Despite progress, challenges remain, including limited compliance by some states and employers.
Nigerian crude drops as OPEC+ signals output hike, Iraq resumes exports amid oversupply fears
Bonny Light crude fell to around $69 per barrel early this week as OPEC+ announced a modest 137,000 bpd production increase for November and northern Iraq resumed exports, raising concerns of global oversupply. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) continues supplying Dangote Refinery with 300,000 bpd under a two-year deal aimed at reducing fuel imports. Despite volatile oil prices and WTI closing at $62.58, Nigeria has delivered 82 million barrels to Dangote since October 2024, with 60% paid in Naira. Global oil markets face pressure from rising Russian exports, Kurdistan’s pipeline restart, and weak Asian demand, while US gasoline draws and geopolitical tensions offer limited support.
Nigeria’s current account surplus Jumps to $5.28billion in Q2 2025 as external reserves hit $43billion
Nigeria’s current account surplus rose sharply to $5.28billion in Q2 2025, up from $2.85billion in Q1, driven by stronger forex inflows and improved external sector resilience, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). External reserves climbed to $43.05billion by September 11, offering 8 months of import cover; the highest level in over six years. The CBN credited the gains to exchange rate stability, tighter monetary policy, and lower petroleum product prices. To ease liquidity constraints, the CBN reduced the CRR for commercial banks to 45% and imposed a 75% CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits, aiming to curb inflation while supporting real sector credit.
Nigeria’s Pension assets rise to ₦25.90trillion in August 2025 amid portfolio rebalancing
Nigeria’s pension fund industry posted a modest 0.38% growth in August 2025, with total assets under management rising to ₦25.90trillion, up ₦97.88billion from July, according to PenCom. FGN securities remained dominant at 61.11% of total assets, led by a 3.5% rise in FGN Bonds and a 17.89% surge in Green Bonds, while Sukuk Bonds plunged 61.51%. Domestic equities fell 4.40%, but foreign shares gained 2.27%, reflecting cautious diversification. Money market instruments rose 1.91%, and mutual funds surged 10%, while REITs dropped 18.51%. RSA membership grew to 10.88 million, and year-on-year pension assets jumped 22.52%, driven by higher contributions and asset revaluation.
Next week, investors will watch out for PMI release and more economic data for better outlook on the economy.
EUROBOND MARKET
African Eurobonds saw mixed performance, initially lifted by risk-on sentiment but later pressured by weaker oil prices. Overall, yields on the Nigerian Eurobonds declined by 12bps week-on-week to 7.70%. Midweek optimism over potential Fed rate cuts supported gains, though caution returned toward the end of the week.
Next week, we expect the Eurobond market to remain cautiously optimistic but volatile, shaped by several key factors like Fed rate cuts and Fiscal poilcies.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity was strong during the week, closing at a credit of ₦5.73trillion despite declines recorded due to FGN bond auction settlement. Consequently, compared to last week, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 1bp to 24.89%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 148bps to 17.96%. The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bonds decreased by 37bps, 22bps and 8bps to 16.64%, 16.27% and 15.95% respectively.
Next week, we expect rates to drop further in the market.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.02% and 1.31% to close the week at 143,584.04 and ₦91.14trillion compared to 142,133.03 and ₦89.96trillion last week.
A total turnover of 8.40 billion shares worth ₦115.50billion in 115,801 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 7.68 billion shares valued at ₦494.13billion that exchanged hands last week in 116,645 deals
On a sectoral basis, industrial goods, consumer goods, banking and oil and gas indices closed positive at 1.66%, 0.13%, 1.17% and 5.68%, while the Insurance index closed negative at -2.02%.
Notable gainers this week were Eterna PLC and Nigerian Enamelware PLC, while International Energy Insurance PLC and Julius Berger PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the current sentiments to persist.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 03/10/2025 | 26/09/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,465.68 | 1,480.66 | -1.01% |
| Parallel | 1,480.00 | 1,515.00 | -2.31% |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUES |
| CORNERST | 270 | 5,451,136,620 | 25.08 |
| FIDELITYBK | 3,516 | 809,519,751 | 16.21 |
| UBA | 5,026 | 264,612,853 | 11.41 |
| ZENITHBANK | 6,224 | 145,115,555 | 10.06 |
| GTCO | 4,662 | 68,352,557 | 6.47 |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| CORNERST | 270 | 5,451,136,620 | 25.08 |
| FIDELITYBK | 3,516 | 809,519,751 | 16.21 |
| UBA | 5,026 | 264,612,853 | 11.41 |
| WEMABANK | 2,695 | 186,805,654 | 3.135 |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 1,628 | 179,285,746 | 5.58 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ETERNA | 27.90 | 37.05 | 9.15 | 32.80% |
| ENAMELWA | 35.10 | 42.45 | 7.35 | 20.94% |
| PZ | 34.50 | 41.70 | 7.20 | 20.87% |
| LIVINGTRUST | 5.15 | 6.09 | 0.94 | 18.25% |
| EUNISELL | 33.60 | 39.50 | 5.90 | 17.56% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| JBERGER | 149.50 | 122.90 | -26.60 | -17.79% |
| INTENEGINS | 3.34 | 2.97 | -0.37 | -11.08% |
| UNIONDICON | 9.00 | 8.10 | -0.90 | -10.00% |
| MANSARD | 16.00 | 14.40 | -1.60 | -10.00% |
| UPL | 5.99 | 5.40 | -0.59 | -9.85% |
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