GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Export prices were flat month-on-month in September, following a downwardly revised 0.10% rise in August and missing forecasts of a 0.10% increase. Year-on-year (y-o-y), export prices surged 3.80%. Import prices were also unchanged in the month, after a 0.10% rise in August, as higher non-fuel goods costs (+0.20%) offset a 1.50% drop in fuel prices. On an annual basis, import prices rose 0.30%, with nonfuel imports up 0.80% and fuel imports down 4.00%. Inflation indicators showed moderate pressure as the headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index rose 0.30% month-on-month (m-o-m), driven by goods (+0.50%) and energy (+1.70%), while services slowed to 0.20%. Core PCE increased 0.20%, matching forecasts. Y-o-y, headline PCE accelerated to 2.80%, the highest since April 2024, while core PCE eased slightly to 2.80% from 2.90%.
The UK S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved slightly to 50.20 from 49.70, signaling marginal expansion, but Composite PMI fell to 51.20 from 52.20 and Services PMI to 51.30 from 52.30, indicating slower growth momentum. Construction PMI plunged to 39.40 from 44.10, its weakest since early 2020, pointing to sharp contraction in the sector. Inflation expectations remain elevated as the 1-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) expectations held at 3.40%, and output price expectations ticked up to 3.70% from 3.60%, suggesting persistent cost pressures.
EU Headline inflation slowed slightly to 2.20% y-o-y in November (vs. 2.10% prior), while core inflation held at 2.40%, signaling sticky underlying price pressures. On a monthly basis, CPI fell 0.30%, reflecting seasonal declines in energy and goods prices. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.40%, near record lows, supporting labor market resilience. HCOB Composite PMI rose to 52.80 from 52.50 and Services PMI to 53.60 from 53.00, suggesting continued expansion in services, while Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.60 from 50.00, indicating mild contraction in industry. Construction PMI stayed weak at 45.40 from 44.00, pointing to ongoing stress in the sector. Producer Prices Index (PPI) showed mixed signals as it edged up 0.10% m-o-m from -0.10% but fell 0.50% y-o-y from -0.20%, confirming easing cost pressures for firms.
In China, recent indicators point to continued weakness in manufacturing and services, as the official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.20 in November from 49.00, marking the eighth consecutive month below the 50 points threshold, while Non-Manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.50 from 50.10, its first contraction since late 2022. Composite PMI slipped to 49.70 from 50.00, signaling broad-based slowdown, confirming softer momentum in both domestic demand and business activity.
In China, recent indicators point to continued weakness in manufacturing and services, as the official NBS Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.20 in November from 49.00, marking the eighth consecutive month below the 50 point threshold, while Non-Manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.50 from 50.10, its first contraction since late 2022. Composite PMI slipped to 49.70 from 50.00, signaling broad-based slowdown, confirming softer momentum in both domestic demand and business activity.
Next week, global markets will focus on the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision and updated economic projections amid limited post-September data, alongside key rate decisions from major Central Banks, China’s inflation prints, and critical GDP and industrial output releases from the UK and Eurozone.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed higher on Friday as a light PCE print reinforced odds of a 25bp Fed cut next week, with traders pricing roughly an 87% chance of a move. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Indices increased by 1.01%, 0.31%, 0.50% to 25,692.05, 6,870.40 and 47,954.99 respectively.
UK stocks gave up early gains following drags from oil & gas majors following downgrades by JPMorgan, while upward revisions on the Eurozone’s labor market were consistent with the ECB’s signal that rates should remain unchanged for the meantime. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and CAC 40 indices decreased by -0.55% and -0.10% to close at 9,667.01 and 8,114.74, while German DAX increased by 0.80% to 24,028.14.
Asian stocks closed mixed, as Investors awaited policy signals from high-level meetings this month. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 0.87% to 26,085.08, while the Topix index decreased by -0.47% to 3,362.56.
Next week, we expect current sentiments to persist.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s GDP expands 3.98% in Q3 2025 amid broad sector gains.
Nigeria’s economy grew 3.98% year-on-year in real terms in Q3 2025, slightly above 3.86% in Q3 2024, driven by agriculture (+3.79%), industry (+3.77%), and services (+4.15%), which contributed 53.02% of GDP. Nominal GDP surged 18.12% year-on-year to ₦113.59trillion. Oil output averaged 1.64 mbpd, with real growth of 5.84%, while the non-oil sector rose 3.91%, accounting for 96.56% of GDP. Key drivers included crop production, telecoms, real estate, finance, trade, and manufacturing.
Foreign capital inflows surge 70% to $20.98billion as investor confidence rebounds.
Nigeria attracted $20.98billion in foreign capital inflows in the first 10 months of 2025, up 70% from 2024 and 428% from 2023, driven by FX reforms, transparency, and macroeconomic stability, according to CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso. The external sector strengthened with the current account balance rising 85% to $5.28billion in Q2, while foreign reserves hit $46.70billion, the highest in seven years, providing over 10 months of import cover. Non-oil exports grew 18% year-on-year, and remittances rose 12%, signaling renewed confidence in Nigeria’s economy.
Nigeria rated “Critical” on 2025 Instability Risk Index with score of 52.
Nigeria scored 52/100 on SBM Intelligence’s 2025 Africa Country Instability Risk Index, placing it in the “Critical” category. Key risk clusters include Leadership & Governance (16), Economy (20), Geopolitics (6), and History (10). The report cites economic fragility, insecurity, and rising living costs as major drivers, despite fiscal tightening and investor engagement preventing deeper collapse. Political divisions from the 2023 elections persist, but reforms and institutional continuity offer tentative stability.
Nigeria’s Business Confidence hits 111.30 in October, signaling stronger outlook
Nigeria’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) climbed to 111.3 points in October, up from 107.9 in September and a sharp rise from 76.8 a year earlier. All five major sectors; Manufacturing (111.30), Trade (115.40), Non-Manufacturing (115.00), Agriculture (111.40), and Services (111.00)—remained in expansion territory, driven by easing inflation, FX stability, and improved access to finance. Manufacturing rebounded strongly after prior contraction, while agriculture gained on crop production and government input support. Analysts call for reforms to sustain momentum amid lingering cost pressures and security challenges.
FIRS clarifies 4% Development Levy: Consolidation, not new tax
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) says the 4% Development Levy on imports is a consolidation of existing charges, not an additional tax burden. The levy replaces fragmented fees like Education Tax, NITDA Levy, NASENI Levy, and Police Trust Fund Levy, aiming to simplify compliance, reduce unpredictability, and strengthen Nigeria’s investment climate. Small businesses and non-resident firms are exempt. Reforms also introduce a 15% minimum effective tax rate for large firms under OECD/G20 rules, protect Free Trade Zone incentives, and add reinvestment relief on capital gains to encourage domestic investment.
FEC Approves 2026–2028 MTEF with N34.33trillion Revenue Projection
The Federal Executive Council has approved Nigeria’s 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), projecting ₦34.33trillion revenue for 2026, including ₦4.98trillion from government-owned enterprises, according to the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Atiku Bagudu. Key assumptions include oil benchmark at $64/barrel, exchange rate at ₦1,512/$1, and production target of 2.60 mbpd (1.80 mbpd for budgeting). Revenue estimates are ₦6.55trillion lower than earlier projections, with federal allocations expected to decline by ₦9.40trillion (16%). The framework sets expenditure ceilings and aligns fiscal planning ahead of the 2027 elections.
Next week, we anticipate the release of the PMI to further provide insight into the Economy and guide investors’ sentiments.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Africa Eurobond market traded bullish this week as investors priced in a likely U.S. Fed rate cut and reacted positively to Nigeria’s Q3 GDP growth of 3.98% YoY, beating expectations. Short-dated Nov 2027 and long-dated Sep 2033 bonds led gains, while oil-producing economies like Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt saw the sharpest yield declines amid rising global oil prices. Nigeria’s benchmark Eurobond yield fell 29bps w/w to 7.14%, reflecting strong risk-on sentiment and improved liquidity outlook.
Next week, Investors will focus on The FOMC decision on rate cut, with sustained interest in high-yield African Sovereigns.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices ended the week near $4,220/oz, supported by strong expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Safe-haven demand remained firm amid geopolitical tensions and Central Bank buying, while ETF inflows into gold-backed funds continued.
OIL
Crude oil posted modest gains, with Brent settling at $63.75/bbl and WTI at $60.08/bbl, reaching two-week highs. Prices were lifted by Fed rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and persistent geopolitical risks (Ukraine conflict, Venezuela tensions). However, upside was capped by oversupply concerns and Saudi Arabia’s price cuts for Asia.
ETFs
ETF flows were strong in November and continued into early December. Gold-backed ETFs attracted heavy inflows as investors sought hedges against policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Equity ETFs also saw inflows amid optimism for Fed easing, while fixed-income ETFs remained resilient. Commodity ETFs, led by precious metals, posted gains, with gold miners ETFs up over 130% YTD.
Gold is expected to stay supported ahead of the Fed’s final policy meeting, with a potential breakout above $4,275 if a rate cut occurs; oil maintains a short-term bullish bias on geopolitical risks and easing expectations, though oversupply concerns cap gains near $64–$65 for Brent; meanwhile, ETF inflows should continue into gold and fixed-income funds under a dovish Fed stance, while risk-on sentiment could boost equity ETFs into year-end.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
FGN Savings Bond opens December window with lower yields.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) has launched its December 2025 FGN Savings Bond offer: 2-year tenor at 12.838% (maturing Dec 10, 2027) and 3-year tenor at 13.838% (maturing Dec 10, 2028). Subscription runs Dec 1–5, settlement on Dec 10, with quarterly coupon payments. Rates are slightly lower than November’s 13.565% (2-year) and 14.565% (3-year). Minimum investment is ₦5,000, maximum ₦50million, and bonds remain backed by the Federal Government, listed on NGX, and qualify as liquid assets for banks.
NGX Launches Commercial Paper Listings to Boost Liquidity and Short-Term Funding.
The Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has introduced commercial paper (CP) listings, enabling corporates to list and trade conventional and non-interest CPs directly on the Exchange. This move enhances transparency, liquidity, and short-term funding options, offering businesses a cost-effective alternative to bank loans and investor credible short-term instruments. With CP listings, NGX now provides an integrated multi-asset platform spanning equities, fixed income, ETFs, derivatives, and short-term debt, reinforcing its ambition to be Africa’s leading one-stop market-place for capital formation.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦2.19trillion, an improvement of ₦234.77billion from previous week and improved further midweek owing to OMO maturity and Sukuk coupon payments into the system. As of Friday, System Liquidity was further driven by inflows from the NTB maturities to close at a credit of ₦3.20trillion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 1bps to 22.72%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 31bps to 17.19%. The Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for short-tenor bonds decreased by 2 bps to close the week at 15.73%, while the average yield for mid-tenor bonds increased by 9bps to close the week at 15.74% and the average yield for the long-tenor bonds remained unchanged at 15.23%.
Next week, investor focus is expected to shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills market, where the DMO will offer ₦750billion across various tenors.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market appreciated this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 2.45% and 2.67% to close the week at 147,040.08 and ₦93.72trillion compared to 143,520.53 and ₦91.29trillion last week.
A total turnover of 6.62 billion shares worth ₦113.22billion in 109,590 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.14 billion shares valued at ₦115.89billion that exchanged hands last week in 102,351 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Consumer Goods, Insurance and Industrial Goods indices closed positive at 3.20%, 1.56%, 1.48% and 7.38% respectively while the Oil and Gas index closed negative at -0.57%.
Notable gainers this week were NCR Nigeria PLC and UACN PLC, while RT Briscoe PLC and Legend Internet PLC topped the losers list.
Ecobank Transnational Incorporated: Listing of 5,381,656,222 Ordinary Shares of $0.025 each issued by way of Conversion of Preference Shares & Loans to Equity and the Exercise of Employee Share Options.
We anticipate cautious trading next week with volatility shifting to selective sectors.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 05/12/2025 | 28/11/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,450.43 | 1,446.74 | 0.25% |
| Parallel | 1,470.00 | 1,460.00 | 0.68% |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TOP TRADES BY VOLUME TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| ETRANZACT | 319 | 3,433,246,714 | 11.94 |
| CORNERST | 313 | 914,938,642 | 4.62 |
| ACCESSCORP | 5,796 | 522,363,806 | 10.85 |
| ZENITHBANK | 5,870 | 204,577,535 | 12.35 |
| FIDELITYBK | 1,838 | 179,457,569 | 3.41 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| SEPLAT | 758 | 3,837,112 | 24.45 |
| ZENITHBANK | 5,870 | 204,577,535 | 12.35 |
| ETRANZACT | 319 | 3,433,246,714 | 11.94 |
| ACCESSCORP | 5,796 | 522,363,806 | 10.85 |
| GTCO | 4,588 | 96,775,594 | 8.42 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NCR | 54.65 | 72.70 | 18.05 | 33.03% |
| UACN | 78.90 | 96.80 | 17.90 | 22.69% |
| GUINNESS | 167.00 | 198.00 | 31.00 | 18.56% |
| DANGCEM | 534.60 | 614.90 | 80.30 | 15.02% |
| NB | 66.75 | 75.00 | 8.25 | 12.36% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| RTBRISCOE | 3.44 | 3.00 | -0.44 | -12.79% |
| LEGENDINT | 5.60 | 5.00 | -0.60 | -10.71% |
| UNIONDICON | 7.00 | 6.30 | -0.70 | -10.00% |
| ABCTRANS | 3.44 | 3.10 | -0.34 | -9.88% |
| CORNERST | 6.00 | 5.50 | -0.50 | -8.33% |
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