Market insights

Global Market Update for the Week Ended 5th September, 2025

GLOBAL ECONOMY

The US Nonfarm payrolls rose just 22,000 as unemployment increased to 4.30% from 4.20% in July. Imports surged by $20.00billion to $358.80billion up from $338.80billion, widening the trade deficit to $78.30billion, while new factory orders fell by 1.30% to $603.60billion. The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was revised down to 54.60, with services slowing (54.50) and manufacturing improving (53.00). Job openings dropped to 7.18 million, and layoffs hit 85,980, the highest August figure since 2020.

The British Pound rose above £1/$1.35 amid Fed. rate cut expectations, though UK fiscal uncertainty and Bank of England (BoE) caution on rate cuts weighed on sentiment. The Composite PMI climbed to 53.50, driven by services (54.20), while manufacturing contracted for the 11th straight month (47.00). Construction PMI rose to 45.50, still in contraction, with steep declines in housing and civil engineering.

The Eurozone economy grew by 0.10% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025; its weakest pace since Q4 2023 amid slowing household spending (0.10%), falling investment (-1.80%), and declining exports (-0.50%). Year-on-year GDP rose 1.50%, led by household consumption and inventory buildup. Employment rose 0.10% to 171.59 million, marking 17 straight quarters of growth, with Spain (+0.70%) outperforming Germany, France, and Italy. Inflation held at 2.10%, with core inflation steady at 2.30%, while producer prices rose 0.40% month-on-month but slowed to 0.20% year-on-year.

China’s General Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.50 and the Composite PMI to 51.00, driven by stronger new orders and services growth (Services PMI: 53.00). Despite rising backlogs, employment declined across sectors due to cost concerns. Input costs rose, especially in manufacturing, while selling prices stayed flat or fell amid competition. China imposed tariffs of 33.30%–78.20% on US optical fiber products, escalating trade tensions. At the SCO summit, President Xi pledged $1.40billion in loans and proposed a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Development Bank. Meanwhile, the Peoples’ Bank of China (PBoC) launched a ¥1.00trillion reverse repo operation; its largest since January to maintain liquidity, and regulators considered curbing speculative trading to stabilize markets.

We await the release of the Consumer and Producer Inflation Rates in the United States and the ECB’s rate decision next week.

GLOBAL MARKETS

This week, US stocks closed mixed, with some major stocks closing lower following weaker than expected August jobs data, indicating concerns about slowing economy. Compared to last week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closed higher, increasing by 0.33% and 1.14% to close the week at 6,481.50 and 21,700.39 while the Dow Jones index closed lower decreasing by -0.32% to close the week at 45,400.86.

In the UK and across Europe, stocks closed lower as investors tracked the pullback in the US equities after the lower than expected US Jobs data released, raising concerns about the world’s largest economy. London’s Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) 100 index closed higher, increasing by 0.23% to close the week at 9,208.21 while Germany’s Deutscher Aktien (DAX) and Frances Cotation Assistéeen Continu (CAC) 40 indices decreased by -1.28% and -0.38%  to close the week at 23,596.98 and 7,674.78 respectively.

The Asian stock market rebounded after sharp selloffs sparked by regulatory concerns albeit closing higher than previous levels week-on-week. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 1.36% and 0.98% to close the week at 25,417.98 and 3,105.31 respectively.

Next week, we expect cautious trading, following outlooks on global rates as softening labor markets and stubborn inflation, pressure Central Banks.

DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Private Sector Hits 19-Month High in Growth as PMI Rises to 54.20 in August

Nigeria’s private sector recorded its strongest expansion in over a year and a half, with the PMI rising to 54.20 in August, up from 54.00 in July. This marks a 19-month high in new order growth and a four-month high in output, driven by rising customer demand and increased project commitments. Growth was seen in services, construction, and agriculture, while manufacturing lagged. Firms expanded staffing for the third straight month and cleared backlogs for the first time in five months. Inflationary pressures eased, with input costs rising at the slowest pace since March 2023 and output price inflation hitting a five-year low. The PMI’s consistent performance above the 50.00 threshold signals sustained improvement in business conditions and cautious optimism among firms.

Naira Strengthens Across Markets in Early September Amid Rising FX Inflows and Policy Support

The Naira posted notable gains in both the parallel and official FX markets during the first week of September 2025, with the parallel rate improving from ₦1,539/$1 to ₦1,535/$1, and the official rate strengthening from ₦1,527.9/$1 to ₦1,511.5/$1. This marks a clear rebound from early August levels, where the naira traded as weak as ₦1,570/$1 in the parallel market. Analysts attribute the rally to a 200% surge in diaspora remittances, rising to $600million, and increased foreign portfolio inflows now at $1.70billion. The CBN’s $41.31billion reserves and a successful currency swap with China have also helped stabilize demand for dollars, boosting investor confidence and market sentiment.

Nigeria’s Fiscal Performance: Revenue Shortfalls, Rising Debt Service, and Weak Capital Spending

In the first nine months of 2024, Nigeria’s fiscal operations revealed significant imbalances, with actual revenue collections of ₦14.55trillion falling short of the prorated target of ₦19.41trillion. Oil revenues underperformed by 24% due to persistent structural issues such as production bottlenecks, theft, and pipeline disruptions. In contrast, non-oil revenues exceeded expectations, driven by strong company income tax and VAT collections, while independent revenues from Government-owned enterprises provided a critical buffer. Despite these gains, total expenditure reached ₦21.87trillion, dominated by recurrent spending and an ₦8.93trillion in debt service, representing over 61% of total revenues. Capital expenditure remained weak, achieving only 54% of its target, with donor grants offering limited support. The fiscal deficit stood at -₦7.05trillion, already above the budget, and was financed primarily through domestic borrowing, underscoring Nigeria’s continued reliance on debt and the urgent need for structural fiscal reforms.

Next week Investors will watch out for Q2 GDP growth figures set to be released on Friday, 12th September 2025.

EUROBOND MARKET

The Nigerian Sovereign Eurobonds started the week on a bearish note, weighed down by weak Investor sentiment across the curve. Selling pressures persisted amid cautious global risk appetite and concerns over external macroeconomic headwinds, particularly from rising US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Mid-week however, following dovish sentiments from the Fed. and release of US jobs data signifying a softer labor market, a rally was seen in the Eurobonds market. By the end of the week, selling pressures continued, following a fall in Oil prices as a result of the upcoming OPEC member committee meeting. Consequently, average Eurobond yields climbed by 5bps week-on-week, settling at 8.01%.

We expect yields to remain volatile, driven by US Treasury movements, global risk sentiments and the expectations of a rate cut.

DOMESTIC MARKETS

FGN Savings Bonds Attract 3.30billion in August 2025, Marking a Decline from July’s 4.27billion

The Federal Government of Nigeria, via the Debt Management Office (DMO), raised ₦3.30billion from its August 2025 FGN Savings Bond issuance, down from ₦4.27billion in July. The auction saw 2,166 successful investors, with ₦573.31million allotted to the 2-year bond at a 14.401% coupon rate, and ₦2.74billion to the 3-year bond at 15.401%.

MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME

System liquidity was strong during the week but declined to ₦1.64trillion due to NTB auction settlement. The Open Repo Rate (ORR) remained unchanged at 26.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) increased by 5bps to 27.00%.

The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 61bps to 18.51%. The Bonds market closed lower this week as the average yield for the short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bonds decreased by 10bps, 31bps and 12bps to 17.46%, 17.26% and 16.04%.

The Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction held on Wednesday 3rd September 2025. The auction witnessed strong demand on the long tenor bill, as total subscription was 2.11x the total offer, at ₦1.01trillion. The bid-to-cover ratio was 1.73x and total allotment was ₦585.25billion, which was higher than the initial offer, thus, the auction was oversold by ₦105.25billion. Stop rates for the 182-days bill remained unchanged. The stop rate for the 91-day bill decreased by 3bps to 15.32% while the 364-day bill stop rate increased by 25bps to 17.69% respectively.

Next week, we expect system liquidity to remain positive in light of upcoming NTB maturities barring OMO auctions to mop up liquidity.

THE EQUITIES MARKET

The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.94% to close the week at 138,980.01 and ₦87.94trillion compared to 140,295.50 and ₦88.77trillion  respectively.

A total turnover of 3.117 billion shares worth ₦90.30billion in 118,018 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.20 billion shares valued at ₦85.40billion that exchanged hands last week in 142,477 deals.

On a sectoral basis, Industrial Goods, Banking, Insurance, Consumer Goods and Oil and Gas indices closed negative at -2.08%, -1.52%, -0.36%, -1.18% and -0.77% respectively.

Notable gainers this week were Sovereign Trust Insurance PLC and Secure Electronic Technology PLC, while DAAR Communications PLC and UPDC PLC topped the losers list.

We expect the equities market to be calmer this week as Investors cherry pick stocks and rebalance portfolio.

CURRENCY

‘(/$)04/09/202529/08/2025W-O-W%
NAFEM1,514.871,531.57-1.09%
Parallel1,535.001,540.00-0.32%

TOP TRADES BY VOLUME

TICKERTRADESVOLUMEVALUE(‘b)
SOVRENINS6671,452,026,9974.31
ACCESSCORP5,977123,194,5173.20
FIDELITYBK2,723109,630,6172.30
FCMB2,51694,671,8751.01
GTCO5,99582,168,1017.53

TOP TRADES BY VALUE


TICKER
TRADESVOLUMEVALUE(‘b)
SEPLAT6294,939,85029.46
ARADEL1,53424,115,52512.45
GTCO5,99582,168,1017.53
ZENITHBANK6,53980,514,3945.24
SOVRENINS6671,452,026,9974.31

TOP GAINERS  

TICKEROPENCLOSECHANGE%
SOVRENINS2.602.970.3714.23%
NSLTECH0.850.960.1112.94%
CORNERST6.397.180.7912.36%
NCR11.5512.701.159.96%
SCOA6.006.590.599.83%

TOP LOSERS

TICKEROPENCLOSECHANGE%
DAARCOMM1.090.86-0.23-21.10%
UPDC6.505.60-0.90-13.85%
AIICO4.043.49-0.55-13.61%
CHAMPION17.3015.00-2.30-13.29%
PZ36.9032.00-4.90-13.28%

DISCLAIMER

This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.

Alpha10 Group. 13, Mambolo Street, Zone 2, Wuse, Abuja. Visit us at www.alpha10group.com.

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