GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Manufacturing strengthened as the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.40 (from 51.80) marking the first expansion in a year, while services activity remained solid with the S&P Global Services PMI at 52.70 (from 52.50). Logistics activity accelerated as the Logistics Manager Index (LMI) climbed to 59.60 (from 54.20) alongside higher inventory and transportation costs. US job cuts surged to 108.44K (from 33.55K), and initial jobless claims rose to 231.00K (up 22.00K) highest since 2009, while job openings fell to 6.54 million (from 6.93 million). Consumer sentiment improved but remained subdued as the Economic Optimism Index increased to 48.80 (from 43.30) with year‑ahead inflation expectations easing to 3.50% (from 4.00%). US crude inventories fell 3.46 million barrels (vs. a 2 million expected draw) and natural gas storage saw a record 360.00 billion cubic feet withdrawal (vs. 242.00 billion cubic feet prior). Meanwhile, consumer credit expanded sharply by $24.05billion (from $4.70billion) and the dollar index held near two‑week highs despite edging slightly lower, supported by safe‑haven flows as markets priced roughly 58 bps of Fed cuts for 2026.
UK Nationwide House Price Index rose 1.00% year-on-year (vs 0.60%) and 0.30% month-on-month (vs -0.40%). Meanwhile, the UK Manufacturing PMI increased to 51.80 (from 50.60), its fastest expansion since 2024, and the Services PMI climbed to 54.00 (from 51.40), lifting the Composite PMI to 53.70 (from 51.40) on stronger new orders, despite continued employment declines. Construction remained weak but improved as the Construction PMI rose to 46.40 (from 40.10). The Bank of England held the Bank Rate at 3.75%, noting easing inflation pressures but a softer labour market with four members voting for a 0.25% cut, highlighting growing dovishness.
The Euro held near €1/$1.18, easing slightly after earlier strength above $1.20 on weak Dollar. The Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.50 (from 48.80) though still in mild contraction, while the Flash Composite PMI edged down to 51.30 (from 51.50) but marked a thirteenth month of growth as manufacturing returned to expansion at 50.50 (from 48.90) despite softer services activity at 51.60 (from 52.40); new orders grew at a slower pace and employment slipped again, mainly due to Germany. Producer prices fell 0.30% month-on-month (vs +0.70%) and 1.70% year-on-year, while inflation eased with headline CPI at 1.70% (from 2.00%) and core CPI at 2.20% (from 2.30%), both the lowest since 2024–2021. The ECB kept key rates unchanged at 2.15% (refi), 2.00% (deposit) and 2.40% (marginal lending), noting resilient but uncertain economic conditions.
The offshore Yuan strengthened toward ¥6.93/$1, supported by seasonal demand and improved sentiment following a high‑level US–China call. China’s Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.30 (from 50.10) its fastest expansion since October, supported by stronger output, higher new orders and the first increase in staffing in three months, while the Services PMI edged up to 52.30 (from 52.00) and the Composite PMI improved to 51.60 (from 51.30), marking an eighth straight month of growth. China’s Foreign exchange reserves climbed $41.20billion to $3.40trillion (from $3.36trillion), the highest since 2015 while gold holdings rose to 74.19 million oz (from 74.15 million oz) with their value increasing to $369.58billion (from $319.45billion).
Next week, markets will face a high‑impact set of global economic events, including delayed US data releases, major political developments in Asia, key GDP and inflation prints across major economies, central bank decisions, and a heavy slate of corporate earnings that will shape risk sentiment.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks closed mixed on Friday, US equities snapped back sharply on Friday, with the Dow closing at a record high, as dip‑buyers returned following a tech‑led selloff earlier in the week. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices decreased by -1.84% and -0.10% to 23,031.21 and 6,932.30, while the Dow Jones index increased by 2.50% to 50,115.67.
European stocks closed firmly higher on Friday, rebounding from the sharp tech‑led declines in the previous session as fears around AI‑related disruptions and stretched software valuations eased. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, CAC 40 and German DAX indices increased by 1.43%, 1.81% and 0.74% to 10,369.75, 8,273.84 and 24,721.46.
Asian equities ended Friday weaker as Chinese markets extended their losses for a second straight session. Sentiment was hit by the global technology selloff, driven by concerns over outsized AI spending and disruption to traditional software business models, while heightened volatility in metals and cryptocurrency markets further undermined risk appetite. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng decreased by -3.02% to 26,559.95 while the Topix index increased by 3.72% to 3,699.00, respectively.
Next week, markets will face a high‑impact set of events as delayed US data (CPI) are released, alongside key global political, economic, and earnings developments to guide sentiments.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Mixed PMI Signals Strong Economic Expansion but Emerging Strains Across Manufacturing and Trade
Nigeria’s economy opened 2026 on a strong footing as the CBN Composite PMI rose to 55.70, marking 14 straight months of expansion driven by broad growth across 31 of 36 subsectors, with Industry at 56.00, Services at 54.50, and Agriculture at 54.20; however, parallel business surveys revealed emerging pressure points—NESG’s Business Confidence Monitor dropped to 105.80 from 112.00, manufacturing weakened amid cost surges (input prices up to 96.90 from 68.90), and the Stanbic IBTC PMI slipped into contraction at 49.70, its first January decline below 50 since 2014, reflecting stagnant new orders, rising costs, and sharp weakness in wholesale and retail despite continued job growth and resilience in agriculture, services, and parts of industry.
FAAC Disburses ₦1.97trillion for December as Value Added Tax (VAT) Surge Offsets Statutory Revenue Decline
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared ₦1.97trillion in December 2025 revenue, slightly higher than November’s ₦1.93trillion, driven by a sharp rise in VAT collections, which grew to ₦846.51billion, cushioning a fall in statutory revenue to ₦1.08trillion; from the ₦2.59trillion gross revenue generated, ₦104.70billion was deducted as collection costs and ₦511.59billion reserved for transfers and savings, resulting in allocations of ₦653.50billion to the Federal Government, ₦706.47billion to states, ₦513.27billion to LGs, and ₦96.08billion in derivation to oil-producing states, with stronger VAT receipts (+₦350.92billion month-on-month) helping offset weaker oil-related inflows as Company Income Tax (CIT), import duty, and Value Added Tax (VAT) drove the month’s revenue uplift.
EMTL Revenue Soars 111.55% in 2025 as Lagos, Kano, and Oyo Dominate Nigeria’s Digital Payment Growth
Nigeria’s Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) allocations surged 111.55% in 2025 to N416.73billion, up from N196.99billion in 2024, driven by rapid digital payment adoption and stronger compliance, with the Federal Government receiving N62.51billion, states N208.37billion, and LGAs N145.86billion; monthly disbursements peaked at N51.68billion in October, while Lagos dominated both state (N33.73billion) and LGA (N22.91billion) allocations, far outpacing bottom-tier states such as Bayelsa (N3.81billion) and Gombe LGAs (N1.85billion), highlighting the deep structural disparity in Nigeria’s digital transaction ecosystem despite broad nationwide growth.
CBN Injects ₦1.72trillion Liquidity in Early February Despite Tightening Push as Banks Retreat to Risk‑Free Holdings
The Central Bank of Nigeria injected over ₦1.72trillionn into the financial system in the first week of February 2026 through cumulative repayments of maturing OMO bills and primary market instruments, including a ₦1.03trillion OMO maturity on February 3 and ₦668.87billion in NTB repayments on February 5, yet liquidity remained tight as banks cycled excess cash back into the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility, which peaked at ₦2.65trillion, reflecting cautious risk appetite amid high interest rates, low opening balances of ₦85.59billion–₦163.80billion, and continued monetary tightening underscoring the apex bank’s strategy of allowing short‑term liquidity relief without shifting from its broader tightening stance aimed at curbing inflation and stabilizing FX markets.
Nigeria’s Crude Exports Set to Fall by 225,000 bpd as Bonga FPSO Shuts Down for Critical Turnaround Maintenance
Nigeria’s February crude exports are projected to drop by 225,000 barrels per day following the shutdown of the Bonga FPSO for scheduled turnaround maintenance, Shell’s SNEPCo confirmed, with production halted until March to carry out statutory inspections, re‑certifications, and subsea integrity work aimed at guaranteeing another 15 years of reliable operation; the deepwater asset which produced its one‑billionth barrel in 2023 and remains a top contributor to national output—underscores Nigeria’s dependence on ageing infrastructure as the shutdown comes amid broader struggles with underinvestment, theft, and declining capacity, reinforcing the urgency of maintenance to stabilize exports and prepare the facility for additional volumes from the Bonga North project.
Nigeria’s Crude Exports to Drop 225,000 bpd as Bonga FPSO Shuts Down for Major Turnaround Maintenance
Nigeria’s crude oil exports will fall by about 225,000 barrels per day in February as Shell’s Bonga FPSO one of the country’s largest deepwater assets undergoes scheduled turnaround maintenance that has already halted production and will last until March; Shell says the statutory exercise is essential to safeguard long‑term integrity, reduce unplanned deferments, and position the facility for another 15 years of reliable output, with the shutdown underscoring Nigeria’s wider challenges of ageing infrastructure, oil theft, and underinvestment even as Bonga having produced over 1 billion barrels since 2005 remains critical to national production, energy security, and future growth tied to the upcoming Bonga North tie‑back project.
NNPC Seeks Chinese Equity Partner to Revive Refineries as Nigeria Targets Long‑Awaited Boost in Domestic Fuel Production
Nigeria’s domestic refining drive gained momentum as NNPC began talks with a major Chinese petrochemical operator to take equity in one of its state‑owned refineries, with CEO Bayo Ojulari revealing that an internal review showed massive losses and inefficient contractor‑led operations; the new plan approved by NNPC’s board seeks experienced refinery operators willing to buy equity and run assets sustainably, forming part of the ongoing technical and commercial overhaul of the Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries launched in October 2025, a shift seen as vital after years of underperformance despite about $4.00billion spent on maintenance, with successful partnerships expected to cut fuel imports, improve energy security, and support Nigeria’s downstream reforms as new measures, including improved crude‑supply security, position the refineries for commercial viability.
Next week, we anticipate the release of Inflation data for January from NBS.
EUROBOND MARKET
African Eurobonds traded largely flat over the week, with Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds recording subdued activity as average yields held steady at 7.30%, reflecting limited offshore participation and muted risk-taking. Unlike prior weeks where shifts in global rates or oil prices drove direction, markets showed minimal price movements, with investors largely sidelined amid a lack of fresh catalysts.
The sovereign Eurobond market is expected to remain subdued, with only modest two‑way flows anticipated; meaningful repricing is unlikely unless external sentiment improves or a shift in global risk appetite triggers renewed interest in Nigerian paper.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold surged sharply, rallying 3.88% to $4,964.07/oz on Feb 6 after touching an intraday high near $4,995, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, a softer dollar, and weaker US labor data that reinforced expectations of Fed easing. Over the past month, gold is up 11.39%, and year-over-year gains stand at 73.60%, with forecasts pointing to a potential rise toward $5,209.62 in 12 months.
OIL
Oil saw choppy trading as Brent crude dipped early on easing Middle East tensions but rebounded 0.74% to $68.05/bbl, though it’s still down 8.85% year-to-date, marking its first weekly decline in seven weeks. WTI held above $60, supported by technical resilience.
ETFs
TF flows were mixed as commodity ETFs saw net issuance of $2.16billion, up from $1.67billion the prior week, while equity ETFs attracted $24.25billion (vs $15.52billion), and bond ETFs drew $13.04billion (vs $9.96billion).
Looking ahead, gold remains well-supported by Fed rate-cut expectations and geopolitical risks, oil is likely to trade in a tight range with intermittent support, and ETF flows should stay positive, driven by fixed-income demand and continued interest in commodity funds especially gold.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Nigeria Set for ₦8.61trillion Liquidity Surge in February as Massive OMO and T‑bill Maturities Hit the System
Nigeria’s financial system is poised to receive about ₦8.61trillion in February 2026 from major maturities including ₦4.61trillion in OMO bills, ₦1.43trillion in Treasury bills, ₦448.96billion in FGN bond coupons, ₦6.85billion in corporate coupons, and ₦1.97trillion in FAAC inflows offering temporary relief after January’s aggressive ₦6.76trillion liquidity mop‑up, yet FMDA warns conditions remain “liquidity‑managed” as elevated yields, tighter interbank rates, and CBN sterilization actions will shape how much of the inflow actually eases funding pressures, with reinvestment patterns, fresh OMO/T‑bill sales, and FX dynamics determining the impact on interest rates and the naira, which recently firmed to around ₦1,380/$ on stronger reserves and higher oil prices.
T‑Bills Auction Undersold by ₦197.39billion as 364‑Day Stop Rate Falls 137bps to 16.99% Amid High Demand
The Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction held on Wednesday 4th February 2026. The auction witnessed strong demand on the long tenor bill, as total subscription was 3.99x the total offer, at ₦4.59trillion. The bid-to-cover ratio was 4.81x and total allotment was ₦952.61trillion, which was lower than the initial offer at ₦1.15trillion, thus, the auction was undersold by ₦197.39billion.
This allotment is lower than the allotment at the previous auction of ₦1.06trillion.
Stop rates for the 91-day and 182-day bills remained unchanged at 15.84% and 16.65% while the stop rate for the 364-day bill decreased by 137bps to 16.99%.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦572.07billion, indicating a decrease of ₦1.29trillion from previous week’s close owing to OMO auction settlement and net CRR maintenance. Tuesday saw System Liquidity open at ₦1.20trillion, receiving further boost from OMO maturity inflows, it improved further on Wednesday by ₦1.05trillion to ₦2.25trillion, it improved on Thursday and closed the week at ₦2.57trillion decreasing by ₦183.08billion. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) and the Overnight Rate (OVN) decreased by 357bps and 355bps to 22.50% and 22.81% respectively.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 94bps to 17.67%. The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor and mid-tenor bills decreased by 15bps and 56bps while the average yield for the long tenor bills remained unchanged at 15.98% respectively.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed on a positive note this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 3.84% to close the week at 171,727.49 and ₦110.24trillion respectively compared to 165,370.40 and ₦106.15trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.86 billion shares worth ₦128.58billion in 240,463 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.09billion shares valued at ₦81.51billion that exchanged hands last week in 222,185 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Oil and Gas indices close positive, increasing 3.57%, 1.01%, 4.36%, 10.88% compared to previous week while Insurance index closed negative, decreasing by -2.33% week on week.
Notable gainers this week were RT Briscoe PLC and Zichis Agro Allied Industries PLC while UH Real Estate Investment Trust and Deap Capital Management & Trust PLC topped the losers list.
LISTINGS
FGN Roads Sukuk Company 1 Plc: Listing of ₦300,000,000,000 7-Year 19.75% Ijarah Sukuk due 2032
Trading License Holders and the investing public are hereby notified that the ₦300,000,000,000 7-year 19.75% Ijara Sukuk due 2032 was listed on Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on 2 February 2026.
Lifting of Suspension – Fortis Global Insurance Plc
Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) previously suspended trading in the shares of Fortis Global Insurance Plc (formerly Standard Alliance Insurance Plc) on 2 July 2019 for failing to file its required financial statements within the stipulated period, in line with the NGX Default Filing Rules.
The company has now submitted all its outstanding financial statements to the Exchange. Having confirmed compliance with applicable rules, NGX—based on Rule 3.3 of the Default Filing Rules has lifted the suspension.
Effective Date: The suspension on trading in the shares of Fortis Global Insurance Plc was lifted on Wednesday, 4 February 2026.
Federal Government of Nigeria: Listing of FGN Savings Bonds for December 2025
Trading Licence Holders are hereby notified that the December 2025 Issue of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Savings Bonds were listed on Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on Thursday, 5 February 2026.
We anticipate the cautious trading as we near corporate action release and companies submit their Full Year Audited Financials for 2025 to further shape Investors insight and appetite.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 06/02/2026 | 30/01/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,366.20 | 1,386.55 | -1.47% |
| Parallel | 1,440.00 | 1,440.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| RTBRISCOE | 7.86 | 12.63 | 4.77 | 60.69% |
| ZICHIS | 4.19 | 6.72 | 2.53 | 60.38% |
| ABBEYBDS | 9.40 | 14.95 | 5.55 | 59.04% |
| UNIONDICON | 8.75 | 13.05 | 4.30 | 49.14% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 3.90 | 5.40 | 1.50 | 38.46% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| DEAPCAP | 9.39 | 6.82 | -2.57 | -27.37% |
| UHOMREIT | 94.85 | 69.25 | -25.60 | -26.99% |
| REDSTAREX | 20.80 | 17.15 | -3.65 | -17.55% |
| UPDCREIT | 8.95 | 7.85 | -1.10 | -12.29% |
| CORNERST | 6.21 | 5.45 | -0.76 | -12.24% |
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