GLOBAL ECONOMY
The escalating US–Israel–Iran conflict, marked by large‑scale strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks across the Middle East, has triggered significant global economic repercussions, primarily through disruptions to energy supplies and trade routes. Brent crude prices surged sharply as the conflict jeopardized the Strait of Hormuz (through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows) raising inflation risks and threatening recession in the event of a prolonged closure. Shipping disruptions, airspace closures, and soaring war‑risk insurance premiums have further strained global supply chains, with stock markets experiencing volatility and regions such as Europe and Asia facing heightened vulnerability due to heavy dependence on imported energy. Collectively, the conflict has amplified uncertainty in financial markets, driven up commodity prices, and increased the likelihood of stagflationary pressures worldwide.
The latest US labor market data for February 2026 shows the unemployment rate inching up to 4.40% from 4.30% in January, as total unemployment rose by 203,000 while employment fell by 185,000. Nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000, driven partly by strike‑related losses in health care and declines across information, manufacturing, Federal Government, transportation, and warehousing. On the external front, export prices rose a firm 0.60% in January, supported by broad increases in non-agricultural goods, while import prices grew 0.20% as higher non‑fuel goods offset falling petroleum costs; year‑on‑year, export prices climbed 2.60% while import prices slipped marginally by 0.10%, underscoring persistent but contained price pressures in global trade.
The UK construction sector weakened further in February 2026, with the S&P Global Construction PMI falling to 44.50 from 46.40, contrary to expectations of a mild uptick, as firms reported sharp declines in new orders and activity amid subdued client demand, weather disruptions, and the steepest drop in residential building activity. At the same time, Sterling hovered near £1/$1.34, as markets weighed escalating Middle East tensions, alongside rising inflation pressures and the likelihood of a more hawkish Bank of England, following the Office for Budget Responsibility reduction of the 2026 UK growth forecast to 1.10% from 1.40%, though projections for 2027 and 2028 were revised higher to 1.60%, supported by expectations of lower borrowing and muted inflation.
Euro Area inflation edged higher in February 2026, with annual headline inflation rising to 1.90% from January’s 1.70%, driven by stronger price pressures in services and non‑energy industrial goods, while energy prices continued to fall but at a slower rate and food inflation held steady. Core inflation also firmed to 2.40%, with France, Spain and Italy recording faster inflation even as Germany saw a slight easing. Labour market conditions remained resilient, as the unemployment rate dipped to a record low of 6.10% in January from 6.20%, though producer prices signaled mixed industrial cost dynamics, with monthly PPI rebounding 0.70% after December’s decline of -0.30%, while annual producer price inflation fell 2.10%.
China’s economy showed mixed momentum at the start of 2026, with FDI falling 5.70% year‑on‑year in January even as the number of newly established foreign‑invested firms jumped by over 25% and high‑tech inflows held firm, supported by strong gains in Research & Development and Advanced Manufacturing Investment. At the same time, both the manufacturing and non‑manufacturing PMIs slipped further into contraction in February, reflecting weak external demand, holiday‑related disruptions, and subdued hiring.
Next week, we expect geopolitical tensions to remain the primary driver of major world economies, while investors focus on key inflation data and critical updates from OPEC and the IEA.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks ended the week lower as disappointing labor market data intensified market pressures, amid persistent inflation concerns and heightened geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing US–Iran–Israel conflict. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by 1.24%, 2.02% and 3.01% to 22,387.68, 6,740.02 and 47,501.55 respectively.
European stocks ended the week lower as escalating conflict in the Middle East continued to push energy prices higher, weighing on sentiment across the region’s economy as the war entered its seventh day. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by 5.74%, 6.70% and 6.84% to 10,284.75, 23,591.03 and 7,993.49 respectively.
The Asian market ended the week lower, mainly due to spillover weakness from a tech‑led sell‑off on Wall Street, additional pressure on Hong Kong markets from declines in Chinese tech and biotech stocks, and escalating Middle East tensions that further weighed on global risk sentiment.Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix index decreased by 3.28% and 5.63% to 25,757.29 and 3,716.93 respectively.
Next week, we expect geopolitical developments to remain the dominant driver of global markets, following the Middle East conflict’s impact on energy prices and the heightened global inflation outlook.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Global oil price surge hits highest since 2022 as Middle East conflict disrupts supply, lifts fuel costs in Nigeria
Global oil prices have recorded their sharpest weekly jump since 2022, with Brent up 20.00% and WTI up 25.00%, as US–Israel strikes on Iran triggered tanker disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20.00% of global oil flows; Brent climbed 2.45% to $89.07, while WTI rose 4.64% to $84.77, reaching their highest levels since mid‑2024. Qatar warned prices could hit $150.00 per barrel within weeks if vessel passage remains unsafe, while refinery shutdowns, China’s fuel export ban, and LNG plant attacks deepened global supply stress. Nigeria is already feeling the impact: NNPC raised PMS pump price to ₦960 from ₦875, and the Dangote Refinery increased its gantry price by ₦100 to ₦874, despite absorbing 20.00% of the cost surge as crude now lands between $88.00–$91.00 per barrel versus $68.00 previously. Dangote, receiving only 5 cargoes monthly instead of the required 13, is turning to FX-funded crude imports but continues prioritizing domestic supply, rolling out CNG-powered trucks to cut logistics costs. Meanwhile, Business Monitor International (BMI) reports that sustained high oil prices could strengthen Nigeria’s external position and support the naira due to expanded domestic refining capacity, even as broader Middle East escalation threatens global trade, shipping safety, and economic stability.
CBN Boosts Reserves with $3.50billion in responsibly sourced Gold as Global prices surge above $5,000/Ounce
CBN has increased its gold reserves to $3.50billion, acquiring locally sourced, LBMA‑standard gold through the National Gold Purchase programme while paying in Naira to preserve foreign reserves. The move aligns with OECD and World Gold Council responsible‑sourcing principles and strengthens Nigeria’s diversification strategy amid rising global gold prices now above $5,000.00 per ounce. Gold’s value in CBN reserves rose from ₦1.28trillion in 2023 to ₦2.77trillion by end‑2024, driven purely by price gains despite holdings remaining at 687,402 ounces. Governor Cardoso said the purchase supports macroeconomic stability as global central banks increase gold buying to hedge inflation and volatility, while industry leaders from SMDF, AFC, and the World Gold Council praised Nigeria’s strengthened supply‑chain formalization. The World Gold Council projects further price increases of 15.00–30.00% in 2026 following gold’s 60.00% return and over 50 all‑time highs in 2025, reinforcing gold’s role as a safe‑haven asset during geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
Nigeria’s VAT revenue hits ₦2.28 Trillion in Q3 2025 as strong consumption and Trade Push Collections Up 10.66%
Nigeria’s VAT collections rose to ₦2.28 trillion in Q3 2025, up 10.66% from ₦2.06 trillion in Q2, driven by sustained domestic consumption and cross‑border transactions. Local VAT contributed ₦1.12 trillion, foreign VAT ₦680.23 billion, and import VAT ₦479.79 billion, with total collections rising 28.10% year‑on‑year. Sector performance varied sharply: administrative and support services surged 89.28%, arts and entertainment jumped 82.49%, and health services expanded 32.40%, while real estate contracted 51.33% and household employer activities fell 36.22%. Manufacturing remained the largest VAT contributor at 25.89%, followed by information and communication at 18.77% and mining/quarrying at 14.85%. Across government tiers, VAT receipts climbed 26.46% in 2025 to ₦7.73 trillion, reinforcing strong compliance and broadening economic activity nationwide.
Nigeria’s Company Income Tax rises to ₦2.96 Trillion in Q3 2025 as domestic and foreign earnings lift collections by 6.55%
Nigeria’s Company Income Tax (CIT) revenue climbed to ₦2.96 trillion in Q3 2025, growing 6.55% from ₦2.78 trillion in Q2, driven by stronger corporate activity and improved compliance. Domestic CIT contributed ₦1.21 trillion, while foreign payments delivered a larger ₦1.75 trillion, highlighting sustained profitability among multinational firms. Sector performance was mixed: arts, entertainment, and recreation surged 41.98%, accommodation and food services rose 37.11%, and mining expanded 15.36%, while households as employers plunged 83.88%, financial and insurance activities dropped 79.72%, and construction declined 66.52%. Manufacturing remained the top contributor at 22.43%, followed by mining and quarrying at 20.24%, and financial and insurance at 17.11%, with the lowest shares coming from household employer activities (0.003%) and water/waste management (0.04%). Year‑on‑year, CIT revenue jumped 67.19%, reflecting stronger earnings and tax reforms, while complementary VAT collections also rose to ₦2.28 trillion, up 10.66% quarter‑on‑quarter and 26.46% for full‑year allocations across government tiers.
Next week, Investors will watch out for PMI data and signals from CBN to further provide insights into the economic performance.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market closed the week mixed but broadly stable, as early‑week offshore selloffs driven by heightened geopolitical risk were partially reversed by mid‑week bargain‑hunting. Overall sentiment remained cautious, with investors balancing Middle East tensions and global risk aversion against Nigeria’s improving external buffers, oil price support, and reform‑led macro stability. By the end of the week, average benchmark Nigerian Eurobond yields hovered around the low‑7% range, reflecting only marginal week‑on‑week changes despite intraday volatility across tenors
We expect the market to remain range‑bound with mild volatility, as investor sentiment continues to be shaped by shifts in global geopolitical risk and expectations around US monetary policy, while downside risks are mitigated by Nigeria’s relatively strong external reserve position, supportive oil price dynamics, and easing near‑term sovereign refinancing pressures.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold remained elevated but volatile through the week, holding near $5,113/oz as of March 6 after briefly touching the $5,400s earlier in the week. The metal pulled back modestly as the Dollar firmed, but safe‑haven demand persisted amid the intensifying US–Iran conflict and ongoing global instability.
OIL
Oil markets tightened sharply as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted roughly 20% of global oil flows. WTI surged to around $90.90/bbl (+12%) and Brent climbed to $92.69/bbl (+8.50%), the strongest weekly gains since the early pandemic period. Regional supply outages and halted tanker traffic supported the rally, while energy infrastructure shutdowns across Gulf states added further upside pressure.
ETF
ETF flows remained robust across major segments. US‑listed ETFs saw record‑strong momentum in early 2026, with $173billion of inflows in February alone, signaling durable risk appetite. Equity ETFs continued to dominate inflows, while bond ETFs captured over $50billion and commodity ETFs saw renewed interest led by gold‑linked products.
Gold is likely to trade steady to slightly firmer, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions, strong central‑bank demand, and elevated safe‑haven flows, with dips likely to be shallow unless yields rise meaningfully or the dollar strengthens further. Oil should remain volatile and headline‑driven, with risk premia staying elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
NTB Auction Sees 2.04× Demand, Undersold by ₦138.26bn as Stop Rates Rise on 91‑Day and 364‑Day Bills
The Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction held on Wednesday 4th March 2026. The auction witnessed strong demand on the long tenor bill, as total subscription was 2.04x the total offer, at ₦2.34trillion. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.32x and total allotment was ₦1.01trillion, which was lower than the initial offer at ₦1.15trillion, thus, the auction was undersold by ₦138.26billion.
This allotment is however, higher than the allotment at the previous auction of ₦952.61billion. Stop rates for the 91-day and 364-day bills increased by 11bps and 83bps to 15.95% and 16.73% while the stop rate for the 182-day bill remained unchanged at 16.65%.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week. Liquidity opened the week at a credit of ₦4.39trillion, increasing on Tuesday by ₦581.51billion to ₦4.97trillion, with further increase on Wednesday and Thursday to ₦6.05trillion owing to net OMO settlement.
Friday saw a decline with Liquidity shrinking to ₦5.82trillion. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00% while the Overnight Rate increased by 4bps at 22.21%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 1bps to 17.27%, while the Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for the short-tenor decreased by 1bps to 16.02% and the mid-tenor increased by 18bps to 15.90% while the long-tenor bonds remained flat at 14.91%.
Looking ahead, we expect market sentiment to remain cautious as investors navigate persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, including evolving liquidity conditions, shifting yield dynamics, and broader economic risks that could influence fixed‑income market direction in the near term.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week strong as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 2.15% and 2.16% to close the week at 196,968.15 and ₦126.44trillion compared to 192,826.80 and ₦123.76trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.70 billion shares worth ₦177.69billion in 370,980 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 5.49 billion shares valued at ₦196.71billion that exchanged hands last week in 370,233 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Industrial Goods and Oil and Gas indices rose by 0.24%, 3.89% and 9.43% while the Consumer Goods and Insurance indices fell by -0.09% and -1.88% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Fortis Global Insurance Plc and Premier Paints Plc while Mecure Industries Plc and McNichols Plc topped the losers list.
We anticipate bullish sentiments to persist as Oil and Gas Equities remain attractive due to the global price of oil.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 06/03/2026 | 27/02/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,393.26 | 1,363.40 | 2.19% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,350.00 | 3.70% |
TOP GAINERS
TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| FTGINSURE | 0.94 | 1.49 | 0.55 | 58.51% |
| PREMPAINTS | 11.00 | 14.60 | 3.60 | 32.73% |
| ETERNA | 32.90 | 42.35 | 9.45 | 28.72% |
| NGXGROUP | 124.00 | 150.95 | 26.95 | 21.73% |
| UACN | 96.00 | 115.80 | 19.80 | 20.63% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MCNICHOLS | 8.47 | 6.40 | -2.07 | -24.44% |
| MECURE | 75.85 | 61.50 | -14.35 | -18.92% |
| MULTIVERSE | 22.70 | 18.45 | -4.25 | -18.72% |
| JAIZBANK | 12.63 | 10.30 | -2.33 | -18.45% |
| OMATEK | 2.60 | 2.20 | -0.40 | -15.38% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
Alpha10 Group. 13, Mambolo Street, Zone 2, Wuse, Abuja. Visit us at www.alpha10group.com.