GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Manufacturing sector extended its recovery in October, with the S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 52.50 from 52.20, supported by stronger output and increase in new orders. Domestic demand improved, but exports fell for a fourth month, underscoring weakness in trade with Canada, China, and Europe. Meanwhile, private payrolls showed a tentative rebound, with ADP Employment Report reporting 42,000 jobs added, higher than 29,000 job cuts in September but signaling uneven hiring. The backdrop remains fragile as the government shutdown drags on, costing the economy up to $30billion weekly and leaving 650,000 Federal workers unpaid, fueling concerns over inflation and labor market strain.
The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4% in a 5–4 vote, with four members favoring a 25bps cut, more than markets expected, underscoring rising support for easing. Policymakers noted that inflation has peaked and disinflation is progressing amid softer pay growth and a subdued economy, though they stressed the need for more evidence before further cuts. Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that rate reductions are likely, with markets now pricing in a pre-Christmas cut, contingent on upcoming inflation and labor data. Meanwhile, UK manufacturing showed signs of recovery; the S&P Global PMI climbed to 49.70 in October 2025 from 46.20 in September 2025, driven by backlog clearance and restocking, though new orders and exports continued to fall.
Euro Area Producer prices (PPI) fell -0.10% in September compared to -0.40% the previous month, marking a second monthly decline and reflecting softer energy costs, while annual prices dropped -0.20% from -0.60%, in line with expectations. Price pressures remain unchanged across intermediate and capital goods, with only modest gains in consumer categories. Meanwhile, the economy showed renewed momentum as the HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 52.50 in October from 51.20 in September, the tenth straight month of expansion, driven by stronger services activity and improving demand conditions.
China recorded a $90.07billion trade surplus in October, the lowest since February and below expectations of $95.60billion, as Exports unexpectedly fell 1.10% year-on-year after September’s strong gains of 8.30%, reflecting weaker overseas orders and front-loading ahead of new US tariffs. Imports rose 1% year-on-year, compared to a 7.40% increase the previous month. Meanwhile, Foreign Exchange reserves climbed for a third month to $3.34trillion, the highest since 2015, supported by Dollar strength and stable Yuan performance. China’s trade surplus with the US widened to $24.76billion, up from $22.82billion in September.
The ongoing US government shutdown is likely to continue the halt in US economic data releases. Investors await the US ADP Jobs data and Inflation figures for further clues on the economy’s momentum.
GLOBAL MARKETS
This week, US stocks fell sharply, as Wall Street battled with concerns over high valuations in technology and Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks, even after strong corporate earnings reports. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by -3.04%, -1.63%, and -1.21%, closing at 23,004.54, 6,728.80 and 46.987.10, respectively.
In the UK and across Europe, equities fell as Investors grappled with renewed fears of a US economic slowdown, rising job losses and concerns over inflated valuations in Artificial Intelligence companies. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by -0.36, -1.61% and -2.10% to close at 9,682.57, 23,569.96 and 7,950.18 respectively.
Chinese stocks closed mixed this week after China’s October exports unexpectedly declined 1.10%. Asian equities also mirrored global weakness amid concerns over elevated AI valuations. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 1.29% to close the week at 26,241.83 while the Topix Index fell by -0.99% to close the week at 3,298.85.
Next week, we expect cautious trading to persist in the global equities space amidst concerns of AI-stocks overvaluation and worrisome labor market reports.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Private Sector Growth Accelerates Amid Softer Inflation
Business conditions strengthened in October as the Private Sector PMI rose to 54.00 in October 2025 from 53.34 in September, marking the fastest expansion in six months and the 11th consecutive month above the 50.00 threshold. Growth was driven by robust output and new orders, supported by improving domestic demand, product innovation, and easing inflationary pressures compared to the past year. All major sectors posted gains, with manufacturing leading. Firms increased hiring for a fifth month, though job creation remained modest amid lingering cost constraints. Purchasing activity surged at the quickest pace since May, while supply chains improved with shorter delivery times. Input cost inflation ticked up slightly but stayed minimal, reflecting managed material and wage pressures. Despite operational bottlenecks (such as power outages and payment delays), business optimism improved, underpinned by expectations of sustained demand and production growth.
Tinubu Seeks ₦1.15trillion Domestic Loan to Fund 2025 Budget Gap
President Bola Tinubu has asked the Senate to approve a ₦1.15trillion domestic loan to help finance the 2025 budget deficit. The request, referred to the Senate Committee on Local and Foreign Debt for review, forms part of the government’s fiscal strategy to bridge revenue shortfalls while sustaining infrastructure investment and social programs. Tinubu emphasized that the borrowing aligns with the broader framework combining domestic and external financing to cover revenue shortfalls, support economic growth and ensure full implementation of priority projects. Lawmakers are expected to deliberate after the committee submits its report within a week.
Nigeria Targets $3billion Annual Climate Finance at COP30
Nigeria announced plans to mobilize up to $3billion annually through its National Carbon Market Framework and Climate Change Fund, aiming to position the country as a leader in nature-positive investments across the Global South. Speaking at COP30 in Brazil, Vice President Kashim Shettima highlighted initiatives focused on community-led reforestation, blue carbon projects, and sustainable agriculture, while urging global partners to scale up grant-based finance and adopt mechanisms like debt-for-nature swaps under the Paris Agreement. Shettima stressed the need for equitable funding to protect forests, oceans, and landscapes, calling on developed nations to lead restoration efforts given their historical contributions to climate change.
Surplus Liquidity Builds as Banks Favor Risk-Free Returns
Banks placed a record ₦4.82trillion in the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) on Friday, reflecting both risk aversion and the incentive from the recent narrowing of the asymmetric corridor, which raised the SDF rate and made risk-free deposits more attractive. Liquidity surged through the week, aided by ₦546.24billion in fresh Treasury and bond sales and ₦662.76billion in maturities, leaving a net injection of about ₦116.50billion. Despite abundant cash, interbank activity stayed muted as large banks hoarded reserves while smaller peers faced selective funding pressures, underscoring structural frictions (FX uncertainty, collateral constraints, and settlement risks) that discourage redistribution. Analysts warn that high SDF balances highlight weak monetary transmission: excess liquidity is not translating into credit growth or strong interbank depth, posing a challenge for policy effectiveness.
Next week, we anticipate movements in Foreign Exchange (FX) and Oil price amid US-Nigeria geopolitical tensions.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigerian Eurobond yields climbed 32bps to 7.97% last week as cautious sentiment toward emerging market debt and a stronger US Dollar drove risk repricing amid geopolitical tensions with Washington. Despite this, Nigeria’s return to the international capital market was a success; the country raised approximately $2.35billion via a dual-tranche Eurobond: $1.25billion due 2035 at 8.625% and $1.10billion due 2045 at 9.125%, attracting $13billion in orders, a record oversubscription of over 450%. Officials hailed the issuance as a vote of confidence in Nigeria’s reform agenda, with proceeds earmarked for the 2025 fiscal deficit and refinancing maturing debt. Listings are planned on the LSE, FMDQ, and NGX, aligning with global best practices.
Next week, we expect cautious trading as Investors respond to global monetary conditions, a rising US Dollar, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold prices hovered around the $3,930–$4,000/oz range, cooling after a sharp rally earlier in the year until mid-October. The metal faced mild profit-taking and dollar strength, but safe-haven demand kept it resilient. Weekly movement was range-bound, with gold closing around $3,983/oz, down by 0.50% compared to $4,013/oz week-on-week. Analysts note that optimism over US-China trade talks and reduced expectations for another Fed rate cut tempered bullish momentum, though gold remains up nearly 45% year-to-date amid geopolitical risks and monetary easing.
OIL
Crude oil extended its bearish trend, pressured by oversupply concerns and weak demand signals from Asia. WTI settled near $59.60/bbl, while Brent Crude closed at $63.63/bbl. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a modest output hike for December but signalled a pause in early 2026, which helped limit deeper losses.
ETFs
Global ETFs reflected mixed sentiment as equity markets stumbled on tech weakness and macro uncertainty. US AI-focused ETFs underperformed amid sharp declines in major tech names, while commodity-linked ETFs (especially gold and silver miners) continued to shine, supported by strong year-to-date gains.
Next week, we anticipate that global alternative assets will be shaped by energy supply signals, safe-haven demand, and shifting Investor flows amid global economic uncertainty.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity opened the week with a surplus of ₦3.06trillion, boosted by OMO repayments totaling ₦1.53trillion. By Friday, the market closed with ₦3.91trillion in surplus balances. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 24.50% while the Overnight Rate (O/N) decreased by 7bp to 24.79%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 13bps to 17.39%. At the NTB primary auction, the DMO offered ₦650billion across tenors, attracting strong investor interest with ₦1.18trillion in total subscriptions. Allotments stood at ₦546.24billion as stop rates for the 91-day and 182-day bills remained unchanged at 15.30% and 15.50%, while the 364-day bill decreased by 10bps to 16.04%.
The Bonds market yields closed lower this week as the average yield for short-tenor bonds and mid-tenor bonds decreased by 29bps and 16bps to 15.80% and 15.66% while the average yields for the long tenor bonds remained unchanged at 15.57%.
Next week, we expect the Bond market to sustain its bullish momentum, boosted by increased demand from Pension Funds, Institutional Investors, and Investor positioning ahead of the next auction.
THE EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market extended its bearish momentum this week as profit-taking dominated trading sentiment amid a combination of domestic and external issues. The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 2.99% and 2.89% to close the week at 149,524.81 and ₦94.99trillion compared to 155,645.05 and ₦98.79trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.575 billion shares worth ₦107.01 billion in 146,429 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 7.479 billion shares valued at ₦145.43billion that exchanged hands last week in 159,487 deals.
On a sectoral basis, Industrial Goods, Consumer Goods, Insurance, Oil and Gas and Banking indices all closed negative at -1.09%, -2.54%, -7.56%, -4.80% and -3.85%, respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Okomu Oil Palm PLC and Eunisell Interlinked PLC, while Skyway Aviation Handling Company PLC and Oando PLC topped the losers list.
We anticipate cautious trading as Investors continue profit-taking and sector repositioning amidst changing macroeconomic indicators.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 7/11/2025 | 31/10/2025 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,436.58 | 1,421.73 | 1.04% |
| Parallel | 1,455.00 | 1,495.00 | -2.68% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| FIDELITYBK | 2,773 | 700,830,063 | 15.71 |
| FCMB | 6,093 | 315,276,536 | 3.31 |
| ASOSAVINGS | 2,664 | 272,189,234 | 0.28 |
| UBA | 4,672 | 216,005,574 | 8.74 |
| ACCESSCORP | 6,929 | 189,328,894 | 4.38 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| FIDELITYBK | 2,773 | 700,830,063 | 15.71 |
| ZENITHBANK | 8,090 | 188,096,562 | 11.52 |
| GTCO | 6,939 | 109,943,689 | 9.73 |
| UBA | 4,672 | 216,005,574 | 8.74 |
| ARADEL | 4,492 | 8,446,934 | 5.94 |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NCR | 16.00 | 19.35 | 3.35 | 20.94% |
| EUNISELL | 59.00 | 70.90 | 11.90 | 20.17% |
| UNIONDICON | 7.05 | 7.75 | 0.70 | 9.93% |
| HONYFLOUR | 20.00 | 21.90 | 1.90 | 9.50% |
| UPDC | 6.17 | 6.59 | 0.42 | 6.81% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| SOVRENINS | 3.90 | 2.80 | -1.10 | -28.21% |
| CILEASING | 6.30 | 5.03 | -1.27 | -20.16% |
| SKYAVN | 99.50 | 80.60 | -18.90 | -18.99% |
| BERGER | 42.50 | 35.10 | -7.40 | -17.41% |
| INTENEGINS | 2.94 | 2.44 | -0.50 | -17.01% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
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