GLOBAL ECONOMY
In the US, consumer sentiment edged up for a second month amid persistent price pressures and labour market concerns as year-ahead inflation expectations held at 4.20% and long-term expectations ticked up to 3.40%. December nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 below forecasts and unemployment fell to 4.40%, reinforcing expectations of cautious Fed easing, as exports surged 2.60% to a record $302billion driven by precious metals and services, with markets also monitoring potential Supreme Court decisions on US import tariffs.
UK economic growth remained subdued as Sterling traded near £1/$1.34 as markets priced only one additional Bank of England rate cut in 2026 versus multiple expected from the Fed, amid geopolitical tensions and elevated consumer borrowing. Construction activity contracted for the twelfth straight month with Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) at 40.10, services activity grew marginally at 51.40 despite ongoing employment declines.
The Euro weakened to €1/$1.16, its lowest level since December 9th, 2025 as easing inflation reinforced expectations of a more accommodative European Central Bank (ECB) stance relative to a cautious Federal Reserve, with headline inflation slowing to 2.00% year on year in December and core inflation easing to 2.30%, while retail sales rose 0.20% month on month in November and accelerated to 2.30% year on year led by non-food goods despite a 0.60% contraction in Germany. Unemployment unexpectedly fell to 6.30% with youth joblessness easing to 14.60%, and consumer inflation expectations stayed anchored at 2.80% over one year amid growing caution on spending and growth prospects.
China’s consumer inflation edged up to 0.80% year on year in December 2025 from 0.70% in November, marking the highest reading since February 2023, while core inflation held at 1.20% and producer prices fell 1.90% year on year, the mildest contraction in 16 months, reflecting easing deflationary pressures despite persistent weakness in non-food goods. Monthly CPI rose 0.20%, as the People’s Bank of China reiterated its commitment to accommodative policy, signalling cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates in 2026.
Next week, key releases will include US inflation, Retail sales, and trade data, UK and Germany GDP, Eurozone industrial production and trade, and China’s trade and credit figures.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equity markets traded cautiously as Investors weighed uneven sector momentum, evolving macro signals, and shifting expectations around earnings and policy support. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 1.88%, 1.57% and 2.32% to 23,671.35, 6,966.28 and 49,504.07, respectively.
European stocks closed higher to fresh record levels as broad-based gains in Technology and Industrials reflected improving Investor confidence in corporate earnings resilience and a supportive macro-policy outlook. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 increased by 1.74%, 2.94% and 2.04% to 10,124.6, 25,261.64 and 8,362.09, respectively.
Asian equities closed mixed as Investors weighed mixed Purchasing Managers Index signals against heightened geopolitical risk following renewed military drills around Taiwan. Compared to last week, the Topix index increased by 1.05% to 3514.11 and the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.41% to 26,231.79.
Next week, we expect sentiments to remain cautious as Investors digest key inflation and activity data alongside evolving policy signals and geopolitical developments.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Historic Surge in Nigeria’s Money Supply
Nigeria’s broad money supply; encompassing currency in circulation, demand deposits, savings, and other liquid assets, climbed to ₦122.95trillion in November 2025, marking a 12.8% year-on-year increase (up ₦13.98trillion from ₦108.97trillion in November 2024) and a 3.30% rise month-on-month (up ₦3.9trillion from ₦119.03trillion in October). This surge occurred despite the Central Bank of Nigeria’s aggressive tightening measures including high interest rates, elevated cash reserve ratios, and open market operations which is aimed at taming inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate. Analysts cite factors such as strong external inflows supporting foreign reserves, increased domestic credit and government borrowing, exchange-rate revaluations, and heightened seasonal economic activity toward year-end as key drivers behind the liquidity growth
Presidential Tax Committee Rebuts KPMG’s Analysis of New Laws
The Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, chaired by Taiwo Oyedele, has refuted KPMG Nigeria’s critique of the Nigeria Tax Act (NTA) and Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025, calling the firm’s claims of “errors and omissions” a misinterpretation of deliberate policy changes. The committee explained that provisions like indirect share transfer taxation and revised VAT rules are intentional steps to align with global anti-avoidance standards and modernize Nigeria’s fiscal system. While admitting minor clerical cross-referencing issues, it dismissed concerns about capital market instability, emphasizing that 99% of investors remain exempt.
65% of Nigerian Banks Meet ₦500billion Recapitalization Target Ahead of March Deadline
The banking sector recapitalization drive has gained momentum as several Tier-1 and Tier-2 banks confirm compliance with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) new minimum capital requirements. FirstBank of Nigeria and Fidelity Bank recently announced surpassing the ₦500billion threshold, with Fidelity raising ₦259billion via private placement. So far, 22 out of 34 licensed banks, about 65%, have met the target, with just over 80 days remaining before the March 31 deadline. While the CBN views this as a boost to financial system stability, it anticipates increased market concentration as smaller banks consider mergers and acquisitions.
Nigeria Launches “Nigeria House Davos” at WEF 2026 to Boost Global Investment
Nigeria is set to debut its first-ever national pavilion, “Nigeria House Davos,” at the 56th World Economic Forum in Davos. This pavilion established through a public-private partnership involving key ministries and private stakeholders, aims to showcase the country’s economic reforms, investment opportunities, and institutional strengths to global policymakers and investors. Positioned on the Davos Promenade, it will host ministerial talks, roundtables, policy dialogues, investment meetings, and cultural diplomacy events. As part of the government’s Renewed Hope Agenda, the initiative seeks to deepen foreign direct investment, foster strategic alliances, and elevate Nigeria’s narrative.
Next week, we anticipate cautiousl sentiments as Investors await Q4 GDP release, with inflation projected to go lower.
EUROBOND MARKET
African Eurobonds traded bearish amid profit-taking despite firmer oil prices and mixed US jobless claims data. Nigerian Eurobonds sold off across the curve, pushing the average benchmark yield up 14bps to 7.39%. Market sentiment was tempered by renewed investor caution in African Eurobonds, with bond prices sensitive to upcoming maturities, refinancing flows, and broader external debt dynamics following recent oversubscribed Nigerian issuances and active repayments across key credits.
We expect sustained buying interest in high-yield African Eurobonds next week, aided by strong demand and improving liquidity, though activity may stay muted ahead of key maturities and macro updates.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold extended its historic rally during the week, after trading in a volatile range earlier in the week. Prices were modestly higher week‑on‑week, consolidating near record highs following strong gains late in 2025. On a year‑on‑year basis, gold remains well over 60.00%, marking one of the strongest annual performances in decades. Analyst outlooks remain bullish, with several banks projecting prices in the $4,670–$4,960 range by late 2026, assuming rate cuts materialize and central‑bank accumulation continues.
OIL
Oil prices rebounded by about 2.00% after recent declines, supported by supply concerns linked to Venezuela, Russia, Iraq, and Iran. Brent settled at $61.53/bbl, while WTI closed at $57.34/bbl.
ETFs
US listed equity ETFs recorded strong net inflows during the week, led by large‑cap US equity products such as S&P 500 and Nasdaq‑linked ETFs, reflecting sustained Investor confidence in equities at the start of the year. Commodity ETFs also saw healthy inflows, with gold‑backed funds standing out as investors continued to seek Inflation hedging and portfolio diversification amid elevated risk‑asset valuations. Meanwhile, Fixed Income ETFs attracted solid allocations, particularly into intermediate‑ and long‑duration bonds, US Treasuries, and Investment‑grade credit, as Investors positioned ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and aimed to lock in current yields.
Next week, Investors should anticipate continued bullish momentum for Gold as a safe-haven hedge, steady demand for Oil supported by tight supply and geopolitical risk, and persistent inflows into equity and fixed-income ETFs as markets position for a potential Federal Reserve pivot toward lower interest rates.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity moderated, opening at ₦1.20trillion, down ₦456.38billion day on day due to ₦1.14trillion NTB settlement, partly offset by ₦514.25billion maturities. Funding costs eased, with OPR at 22.50% and OVN at 22.71%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 7bps to 16.31%. The Bonds market yields closed higher this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long tenor bills increased by 22bps, 30bs and 3bps to close at 16.97%, 17.27and 15.86% respectively.
Next week, we expect market activity to be supported by strong demand at upcoming NTB auctions following robust participation in the first 2026 sale while Investors remain attentive to yield movements and broader macro signals.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market remained bullish to the second week of the month, as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 3.71% and 3.84% to close the week at 162,298.08 and ₦103.78trillion compared to 156,492.36 and ₦99.94trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.16billion shares worth ₦94.02billion in 248,254 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 7.82billion shares valued at ₦134.47billion that exchanged hands last week in 150,799 deals.
On a sectoral basis, all sectors closed positive, with the Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods, Insurance and Oil and Gas indices increasing by 3.07%, 2.76%, 4.74%, 6.82% and 4.70% compared to previous week.
Notable gainers this week were Multiverse Mining & Exploration PLC and McNichols PLC while Aluminium Extrusion Industries Plc and Austin Laz & Company Plc topped the losers list.
We anticipate the Equities market to remain cautious as Investors sentiments improve with selections in fundamental stocks with slight Profit Taking and rebalancing occurring.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 09/01/2026 | 02/01/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,423.17 | 1,430.85 | -0.54% |
| Parallel | 1,485.00 | 1,480.00 | 0.05% |
TOP TRADES BY VOLUME
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE (₦’b) |
| UNIVINSURE | 767 | 846,818,967.00 | 46.35 |
| LINKASSURE | 1,057 | 237,335,676.00 | 42.70 |
| ACCESSCORP | 11,994 | 176,647,669.00 | 41.69 |
| CHAMS | 3,289 | 172,121,119.00 | 67.65 |
| TANTALIZER | 1,794 | 156,044,339.00 | 42.56 |
TOP TRADES BY VALUE
| TICKER | TRADES | VOLUME | VALUE(₦’b) |
| ZENITHBANK | 10,286 | 135,635,447.00 | 90.41 |
| ARADEL | 5,449 | 9,106,324.00 | 66.61 |
| GTCO | 11,593 | 61,155,697.00 | 60.31 |
| SEPLAT | 2,335 | 919,855.00 | 57.72 |
| WAPCO | 3,437 | 35,382,756.00 | 49.54 |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ALEX | 23.80 | 19.10 | -4.70 | -19.75% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 4.67 | 4.13 | -0.54 | -11.56% |
| SOVRENINS | 3.81 | 3.38 | -0.43 | -11.29% |
| IKEJAHOTEL | 44.90 | 40.00 | -4.90 | -10.91% |
| JULI | 8.06 | 7.26 | -0.80 | -9.93% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MULTIVERSE | 14.65 | 23.40 | 8.75 | 59.73% |
| MCNICHOLS | 3.59 | 5.50 | 1.91 | 53.20% |
| MAYBAKER | 19.00 | 28.80 | 9.80 | 51.58% |
| DEAPCAP | 2.09 | 3.00 | 0.91 | 43.54% |
| NEIMETH | 5.90 | 8.45 | 2.55 | 43.22% |
DISCLAIMER
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