GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US economy remained relatively resilient in May 2026, although underlying indicators showed mixed momentum compared to April. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, stronger than both market expectations and the upwardly revised 179,000 recorded in April, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.30%. Manufacturing activity strengthened further, with the S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rising to 55.10 in May from 54.50 in April, marking the strongest sector expansion since May 2022, supported by stronger production and new orders despite continued weakness in exports. In contrast, the Services PMI softened to 50.70 from 51 points in April as weaker consumer demand, falling foreign orders, and heightened uncertainty weighed on activity and triggered the fastest pace of job cuts in the sector since 2020. Consequently, the Composite PMI edged lower to 51.50 from 51.70 in April, reflecting slower overall private sector growth despite stronger manufacturing performance.
The UK economy weakened in May 2026 as slowing services activity outweighed stronger manufacturing performance. The S&P Global UK Composite PMI fell sharply to 49.70 from 52.60 in April, marking the first contraction in private sector activity in over a year. The decline was largely driven by the Services PMI, which dropped to 49.30 from 52.70, reflecting weaker domestic and foreign demand amid heightened economic and political uncertainty, softer discretionary spending, and rising client caution. In contrast, manufacturing activity improved slightly, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 53.90 from 53.70 in April, supported by stronger domestic and export orders as firms front-loaded purchases ahead of potential price increases and supply disruptions linked to Middle East tensions.
The Eurozone economy showed further signs of weakness in May 2026 as slowing growth, rising inflation, and weakening demand continued to weigh on economic activity. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.20% in May from 3% in April, remaining well above the ECB’s 2% target, while core inflation stood at 2.50% year-on-year. Monthly consumer prices rose by a modest 0.10%, slowing from 1% in April as energy prices declined, although services inflation remained elevated. Producer price pressures also persisted, with producer prices rising 4.90% year-on-year in April compared to 2% previously, reflecting ongoing supply disruptions and higher input costs linked to Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, Eurozone GDP was revised lower, showing the economy contracted by 0.20% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, compared to an initial estimate of 0.10% growth, marking the first contraction since 2022 as weaker trade, slower investment, elevated inflation, and energy supply pressures dampened economic performance across the region.
China’s economy improved slightly in May 2026, with the NBS Composite PMI rising to 50.50 from 50.10 in April as services activity recovered and infrastructure spending supported construction activity. The Non-Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.10 from 49.40, returning to expansion territory, while the Manufacturing PMI eased marginally to 50 from 50.30 amid weaker domestic demand and slower export orders. Although business sentiment remained positive, rising energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict, softer global demand, and lingering China-US trade uncertainty continued to pressure production costs and weigh on the broader economic outlook.
Next week, Any potential break from the prolonged impasse between Iran and the US will dictate global markets next week, as elevated energy prices continue to make central banks heed inflationary risks.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks fell sharply on Friday as a steep selloff in semiconductor shares rattled markets. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices decreased by -4.53%, -2.59% and -0.32% to 28,957.60, 7,383.74 and 50,866.78, respectively.
European equity indices closed lower on Friday amid the prolonged impasse between the US and Iran and the outlook of higher rates by major central banks. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and Dax indices decreased by -0.39% and -1.37% to 10,368.05 and 24,759.05, while the CAC 40 index increased by 0.43% to 8,218.24, respectively.
Asian stocks closed lower as investors weighed mounting trade tensions involving China. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices decreased by -0.87% and -0.20% to 24,961.95 and 3,949.09 respectively.
Next week, we expect global markets to focus on upcoming US CPI and PPI data for signals ahead of this month’s Federal Reserve policy decision.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Alpha10 Launches ₦500million Halal Fund to Boost Financial Inclusion and MSME Financing
Alpha10 Fund Management Limited has launched a ₦500million Halal Fund aimed at expanding financial inclusion and improving access to financing for Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) across Nigeria. The Shari’ah-compliant fund, unveiled in the headquarters in Abuja, is designed to provide ethical investment opportunities while supporting businesses with advisory services to become investment-ready and compliant with regulatory standards. According to Alpha10 Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Abigail Utomi, the open-ended fund allows investments from as low as ₦1,000, offers a 90-day lock-in period, and targets annual returns of between 14.50% and 16.00% through investments in Sukuk, Mudarabah, and other permissible instruments. The company, which currently manages two other Funds; Alpha10 Money Market and Alpha10 Dollar Fund, aims to grow Assets Under Management (AUM) to ₦50.00 billion within five years and projects the Halal Fund itself will exceed ₦10billion over the same period. United Bank for Africa (UBA) was named as custodian of the fund, while the firm disclosed plans to launch additional investment products including an informal sector fund and a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT).
Nigeria’s Capital Importation Jumps 83.83% to $10.37billion as Banking Sector Attracts 72.79% of Foreign Inflows
Nigeria’s capital importation surged by 83.83% year-on-year to $10.37billion in Q1 2026 from $5.64billion in Q1 2025, driven largely by foreign investors’ appetite for money market instruments and bonds. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Portfolio Investment dominated with $9.86billion, representing 95.10% of total inflows, while Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) remained weak at $135.08million/1.30% despite a 6.96% annual rise. The Banking sector emerged as the biggest beneficiary, attracting $7.55billion or 72.79% of total inflows, followed by Financing with $2.43billion, as both sectors accounted for over 96.00% of imported capital. The United Kingdom led foreign inflows with $5.08billion ahead of the United States’ $3.18billion, while Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria processed the highest inflows at $4.41billion. Meanwhile, productive sectors remained weak, with Manufacturing attracting only $152.27million, Telecommunications plunging 91.04% year-on-year to a four-year low of $7.24million, and Oil and Gas receiving just $460,000, highlighting continued investor preference for short-term financial assets over long-term productive investments.
Nigeria’s Food Import Bill Falls 7.37% to $2.34billion as Garri, Beans Prices Decline Sharply
Nigeria spent $2.34billion on food imports in 2025, representing a 7.37% decline from $2.53billion in 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), signaling moderation in food-related foreign exchange demand despite continued dependence on imported food supplies. Food imports accounted for 4.97% of total foreign exchange utilization in 2025, down sharply from 9.49% in 2024, as total foreign exchange utilization surged 77.00% to $47.17billion. Monthly food import demand peaked at $248.60million in September and $245.86million in December, averaging $195.28million monthly. Despite the moderation in staple prices, food inflation remained elevated at 16.06%, reflecting lingering supply chain challenges, insecurity, logistics costs, and persistent structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.
Nigeria Spent Over 67% of Revenue on Debt Servicing as Debt Payments Hit ₦12.52trillion in 9M 2025
Nigeria’s debt service burden remained elevated in the first nine months of 2025, with the Federal Government spending ₦12.52trillion on debt repayments, representing 67.22% of total retained revenue, according to the 2025 Third Quarter Budget Implementation Report. This means that for every ₦100 earned, over ₦67 was used to service existing debt obligations, highlighting mounting fiscal pressure and limited spending flexibility. Debt servicing in Q3 2025 alone stood at ₦3.41trillion, consuming about 44.00% of revenue, while domestic debt service accounted for ₦6.32trillion and external debt repayments totaled ₦4.93trillion for the nine-month period. Meanwhile, Federal Government revenue reached ₦18.63trillion, falling short of the prorated budget target of ₦30.67trillion by ₦12.04trillion, largely due to weak oil earnings, crude theft, pipeline vandalism, and lower international oil prices. Oil revenue contributed only ₦2.45trillion in Q3, missing target by 53.26%, as crude production averaged 1.64 million barrels per day against the 2.12 million barrels benchmark. However, stronger non-oil revenue supported fiscal performance, with Company Income Tax collections rising to ₦3.06trillion, Value Added Tax collections reaching ₦2.28trillion, and non-oil revenue contributing 68.00% of total revenue during the quarter. Despite these gains, analysts warn that rising debt servicing costs continue to constrain spending on infrastructure, healthcare, education, and capital projects, as Nigeria’s total public debt stock climbed to ₦153.29trillion by September 2025.
Nigeria’s Crude Oil Sector Rebounds with 16.37% Growth Despite Lower Production in Q1 2026
Nigeria’s crude petroleum and natural gas sector recorded a strong rebound in Q1 2026, growing 16.37% year-on-year in nominal terms to ₦4.27trillion from ₦3.67trillion in Q1 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The recovery reversed a 10.50% contraction recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 and a steeper 31.59% decline in Q4 2025, helping the broader Mining and Quarrying sector expand by 13.92%. The growth came despite lower average crude oil production, which declined to 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.62mbpd in Q1 2025 and 1.58mbpd in Q4 2025. In real terms, the crude petroleum and natural gas sector grew by 2.57%, higher than the 1.87% recorded a year earlier, although slower than the 6.79% growth achieved in the previous quarter. The sector contributed 3.92% to Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and accounted for 91.08% of total Mining and Quarrying output during the quarter, remaining the dominant extractive industry driver. However, growth across the sector was uneven, as Coal Mining contracted by 15% while Metal Ores declined by 6.24%, underscoring continued dependence on crude oil performance to sustain expansion in Nigeria’s extractive industries.
Next week, we expect the foreign exchange market to remain relatively stable, supported by improved foreign capital inflows and ongoing monetary policy reforms, although pressures from external volatility and global dollar strength may persist in the short term.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market traded mildly bullish as average benchmark yields declined marginally by 1 basis point week-on-week to close at 6.77%, supported by sustained offshore investor demand and improving risk sentiment across emerging markets. Investor appetite remained positive amid confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms, relative foreign exchange stability, and stronger crude oil prices, leading to modest yield compression across selected sovereign Eurobond maturities.
Next week, we expect Nigeria’s Eurobond market to remain mildly bullish as improving investor sentiment, relatively stable crude oil prices, and sustained confidence in Nigeria’s macroeconomic and foreign exchange reforms continue to support offshore demand. However, trading is likely to remain cautious amid global interest rate uncertainty, United States Treasury yield movements, and evolving geopolitical developments, with yields expected to trade within a relatively stable range in the near term.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded within a relatively tight range during the week ended June 5, 2026, closing around $4,443.07–$4,540.00 per ounce, as persistent United States Treasury yields above 4.46% and a strong United States Dollar continued to pressure bullion prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Gold prices declined about 0.76% on the week, with investor sentiment remaining cautious amid expectations of a prolonged higher interest rate environment. Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) demand for gold also softened as investors rotated toward higher-yield fixed-income assets. Overall, gold remains range-bound with a slight downside bias in the near term.
OIL
Oil prices corrected lower during the week, with Brent crude closing near $92.87–$93.09 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled around $90.54–$91.66 per barrel amid easing supply concerns and renewed optimism around United States–Iran negotiations. Market volatility remained elevated as traders monitored developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East geopolitical tensions. Weak Chinese crude demand and a stronger United States Dollar also weighed on sentiment, limiting upside momentum. Brent crude declined about 2.04% on June 5, while WTI fell 2.69%, reinforcing a softer short-term outlook for energy markets.
ETF
Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) flows remained defensive during the period, with investors continuing to favour fixed-income and low-risk allocations amid elevated market uncertainty and volatile commodity prices. Bond-focused ETFs attracted significant inflows globally, reflecting sustained demand for yield and portfolio stability, while commodity-related ETFs recorded mixed flows as softer gold prices triggered cautious positioning and profit-taking activities. Broader ETF inflows remained strong globally, with investors increasingly rotating into diversified and income-focused strategies amid shifting macroeconomic expectations
Gold is expected to remain range-bound within the $4,400.00–$4,600.00 per ounce band, with elevated real yields and United States Dollar strength likely to cap upside gains, although geopolitical risks may provide downside support. Oil prices are expected to remain highly headline-sensitive, with Brent crude likely trading within the $88.00–$95.00 per barrel range as markets reassess global supply risks and diplomatic developments involving Iran and the Middle East. Meanwhile, Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) flows are projected to continue favouring fixed income and defensive allocations, while commodity exposure remains cautious amid persistent volatility and uncertainty surrounding global monetary policy expectations.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Nigeria Launches T+1 Settlement Cycle, Aligns Capital Market with Global Standards
The Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc has officially launched Nigeria’s T+1 settlement cycle, completing the country’s transition from a two-day settlement framework and aligning the Nigerian capital market with advanced global markets such as the United States, Canada, and India. Under the new framework, securities transactions executed on a trading day will now settle on the next business day, improving liquidity, reducing counterparty risk, and accelerating capital recycling for investors.
Public Sector Pension Contributions Surge 234.85% to ₦550.96billion as Nigeria’s Pension Assets Hit Record High
Public sector pension remittances in Nigeria surged by 234.85% to ₦550.96billion in Q4 2025, driving total pension contributions to ₦903.70billion, according to the National Pension Commission (PenCom). The sharp increase was attributed to improved compliance with the Contributory Pension Scheme (CPS) and the settlement of outstanding pension arrears, while private sector remittances also rose by 4.16% to ₦352.74billion. PenCom reported that Net Asset Value (NAV) climbed by ₦1.36trillion to ₦27.45trillion in December 2025 from ₦26.09trillion in September, supported largely by equity valuation gains. The Federal Government also paid ₦30.06billion in accrued rights to 8,770 retirees and deceased contributors, while PenCom recovered ₦387.79million from 16 defaulting employers, bringing cumulative recoveries since 2012 to ₦32.75billion. Digital adoption strengthened during the quarter with 4,560 electronic Pension Clearance Certificates (ePCCs) issued for 61,891 employees valued at ₦23.62billion, while 114,864 new Retirement Savings Accounts (RSAs) raised total RSA registrations to 11,042,903. However, PenCom noted persistent challenges, including negative real returns across Retirement Savings Account (RSA) funds due to inflation and low participation in Personal Pension Plan (PPP) schemes, where 92.00% of accounts remained dormant.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system stayed robust throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦4.57trillion, a decrease of ₦1.44trillion from the previous week’s close, attributed to OMO auction settlement, liquidity declined marginally on Tuesday and opened with an increase of ₦800.48billion on Wednesday to ₦5.33trillion increasing further on Thursday by ₦72.46billn, to open the day in a credit of ₦5.40trillion, Liquidity closed the week in a credit of ₦4.79trillion on Friday, a decline of ₦615.22billion owing to Thursday’s net Treasury Bills settlement. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Nigeria Treasury Bills Auction Oversubscribed by ₦457.28billion as Stop Rates Rise Across Tenors
Nigeria’s Treasury Bills (NTB) auction held on June 3, 2026 witnessed strong investor demand, with total subscriptions reaching ₦2.16trillion, representing 2.16x the ₦1trillion initially offered. The auction recorded a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.48x, while total allotment rose to ₦1.46trillion, exceeding the initial offer by ₦457.28billion and significantly higher than the ₦731.75billion allotted at the previous auction.
Stop rates increased across all maturities, with the 91-day bill rising by 10 basis points to 16.05%, the 182-day bill climbing by 5 basis points to 16.19%, and the 364-day bill advancing by 20.10 basis points to 16.35%, reflecting sustained investor appetite for government securities amid elevated yield conditions.
Next week, we expect rates to remain elevated.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a bearish note on the back of widespread profit taking across major stocks as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 2.80% to close the week at 243,379.63 and ₦156.09trillion respectively compared to 250,385.47 and ₦160.51trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.97 billion shares worth ₦175.78billion in 344,073 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.40 billion shares worth ₦111.48billion that exchanged hands last week in 241,313 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed negative, with the Oil and Gas, Insurance, Banking, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices fell by 5.81%, 1.89%, 3.44%, 0.73% and 4.40%,
Notable gainers this week were International Energy Insurance PLC and Abbey Mortgage Bank PLC while John Holt PLC and ABC Transport PLC topped the losers list.
Nigerian Exchange ETFs Trading Weakens Slightly in May 2026 Despite Broad Market Recovery
Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) recorded weaker trading activity in May 2026 as total transaction value declined by 1.10% to ₦3.67billion from ₦3.71billion in April, while trading volume eased to 25.92 million units from 26.90 million units, reflecting softer investor participation. Despite the weaker activity, market sentiment improved significantly, with nine of the twelve tracked ETFs posting gains after widespread losses in April.
Next week, we expect cautious trading in the equities market as investors continue to balance profit-taking activities with selective bargain hunting in fundamentally strong stocks.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 05/06/2026 | 29/05/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,362.21 | 1,373.25 | -0.80% |
| Parallel | 1,390.00 | 1,400.00 | -0.71TOP GAINERS |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTENEGINS | 4.11 | 6.60 | 2.49 | 60.58% |
| ABBEYBDS | 6.20 | 8.50 | 2.30 | 37.10% |
| IKEJAHOTEL | 37.00 | 44.00 | 7.00 | 18.92% |
| CONHALLPLC | 5.71 | 6.32 | 0.61 | 10.68% |
| TRIPPLEG | 3.98 | 4.37 | 0.39 | 9.80% |
TOG LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ABCTRANS | 8.48 | 6.20 | -2.28 | -26.89% |
| JOHNHOLT | 18.80 | 14.90 | -3.90 | -20.74% |
| CAVERTON | 7.10 | 6.00 | -1.10 | -15.49% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 4.40 | 3.76 | -0.64 | -14.55% |
| TRANSEXPR | 5.72 | 4.90 | -0.82 | -14.34% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
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