GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US trade deficit narrowed slightly to $55.88billion from $56.59billion, as exports rose 2.61% (+$8.32billion) to a record $327.10billion, driven by capital goods (+$4billion), industrial supplies (notably energy), and consumer goods, while imports increased 2.03% (+$7.62billion) to $382.98billion, largely reflecting stronger demand for AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and telecom equipment. On inflation, headline CPI accelerated to 4.20% year-on-year (YoY) from 3.80%, marking a third consecutive rise, while monthly CPI eased slightly to 0.50% from 0.60%, with energy prices (up 23.50% YoY) accounting for over 60% of the increase amid geopolitical tensions; food and shelter inflation also edged higher. In contrast, core inflation remained contained, with core CPI rising 0.20% month-on-month (MoM) vs. 0.40% prior and 2.90% YoY (vs. 2.80%), indicating moderate underlying demand pressures.
The UK economy showed a modest improvement in external balances but weakening domestic momentum in April 2026, as the goods trade deficit narrowed to £26.05billion from £27.22billion. Exports rose driven by stronger shipments to both EU and non-EU markets, while imports fell 0.72% to £59.16billion amid lower fuel purchases. On the production side, industrial output was flat MoM (vs. -0.20% prior), missing expectations, as sharp declines in utilities offset slower manufacturing growth of 0.40% (down from 1.20%); however, manufacturing still beat expectations of a contraction, supported by gains in pharmaceuticals and metals, while key sectors such as transport equipment and electronics declined. GDP contracted 0.10% MoM (from +0.30%), marking the first decline since August, largely due to weaker services output, while YoY growth held steady at 1.20% (unchanged from March but slightly below 1.30% forecasts), indicating that despite some resilience in external trade, underlying economic activity is beginning to soften.
The European Central Bank (ECB) tightened policy in June 2026, delivering its first rate hike since 2023, raising the Deposit facility rate by 25bps to 2.25% (from 2%) and the marginal lending rate to 2.65% (from 2.40%), as it responded to renewed inflation risks driven largely by rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The Central Bank simultaneously revised its inflation outlook upward, with headline inflation now projected at 3% in 2026 (from 2.60%) and 2.30% in 2027 (from 2%), while core inflation was increased to 2.50% for both 2026 and 2027 (from 2.30% and 2.20%), reflecting more persistent underlying pressures. In contrast, the ECB downgraded growth expectations slightly, projecting GDP growth at 0.80% in 2026 (from 0.90%) and 1.20% in 2027 (from 1.30%), highlighting concerns that tighter financial conditions and external shocks are weighing on the euro area’s economic outlook, even as policymakers remain focused on anchoring inflation to the 2% target.
China’s external and price dynamics strengthened in May 2026, with thetrade surplus widening to $105.43billion from $102.72billion YoY (above $92.10billion expected), asexport growth accelerated to 19.40% YoY (from 14.10%) to a record $376.78billion, driven by frontloaded shipments amid energy price risks, whileimports surged 27.40% YoY (from 25.30%) to $271.35billion, reflecting stronger domestic demand. Inflation remained subdued, withCPI unchanged at 1.20% YoY (below 1.30% expected) andfalling 0.10% MoM (from +0.30%), as persistent food deflation (-1.70% vs -1.60%) offset firmer non-food prices (1.90% vs 1.80%), whilecore inflation eased to 1.10% YoY (from 1.20%). In contrast,producer price pressures intensified, withPPI rising 3.90% YoY (up from 2.80%), driven by higher commodity and energy costs, althoughmonthly PPI slowed to 0.50% (from 1.70%), indicating some moderation in near-term momentum.
Next week, signals that the US and Iran are converging toward a deal to end their conflict will control on the outlook of energy supply from the Middle East. Additionally, the Federal Reserve will decide on its policy rate on Chairman Warsh’s first meeting.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks rose on Friday as SpaceX’s strong market debut boosted sentiment and investors remained optimistic about a possible peace agreement between the US and Iran. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 2.34%, 0.65% and 0.66% to 29,635.95, 7,431.46 and 51,202.26, respectively.
European equity indices closed mixed on Friday, as most stocks extended gains for the week, supported by optimism that the US and Iran could be nearing an end to their conflict, alongside falling oil prices. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and CAC indices increased by 1% and 1.61% to 10,471.72 and 8,350.87, while the DAX index decreased by -0.49% to 24,635.30, respectively.
Asian indices closed negative as volatility driven by US–Iran tensions earlier in the week pushed the indices lower week-on-week. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices decreased by -0.98% and -1.70% to 24,718.10 and 3,881.96 respectively.
Next week, Global markets are expected to remain volatile and data-dependent, with sentiment driven by US–Iran developments affecting energy prices and the Feds policy week.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria Crude Output Rises to 1.53 million barrel per day, Surpasses OPEC Quota as Revenue Outlook Strengthens
Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production increased to 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2026 from 1.49 million bpd in April, marking a +41,000.00 bpd month-on-month rise (+2.80%) and its first output above the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota since mid-2025, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report; this improvement comes despite overall Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) production declining by 0.19 million bpd to 33.13 million bpd, reinforcing Nigeria’s position as Africa’s top producer ahead of Libya (1.30 million bpd), Algeria (0.98 million bpd), Congo (0.28 million bpd), and Gabon (0.21 million bpd), while recent gains are supported by enhanced pipeline security and upstream investment recovery, though output remains below the Federal Government’s 2.60 million bpd benchmark and 1.80 million bpd budget assumption, with fiscal upside tied to sustained production growth amid prior challenges including oil theft, underinvestment, and operational disruptions, and domestic supply gaps evident as only 28.50 million barrels were delivered to refineries in First Quarter (Q1) 2026 versus 61.90 million barrels allocated.
Nigeria Value Added Tax (VAT) Hits ₦2.42trn in Q1 2026, Up 17.06% Year-on-Year as Manufacturing Leads Revenue Mix
Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT) collections rose to ₦2.42trillion in First Quarter (Q1) 2026, representing a +17.06% year-on-year increase from ₦2.07trillion in Q1 2025 and a +9.98% quarter-on-quarter rise from ₦2.20trillion in Fourth Quarter (Q4) 2025, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), with contributions driven by local VAT at ₦1.11trillion, foreign VAT at ₦830.47billion, and import VAT at ₦477.55billion; sectoral performance showed strong expansion in household-related activities (+74.36%), arts and entertainment (+20.91%), and manufacturing (+12.82%), while education (-31.96%), public administration (-31.38%), and extraterritorial activities (-29.89%) declined, as manufacturing maintained dominance with 29.75% of total VAT, followed by information and communication (20.61%) and mining and quarrying (12.32%), highlighting continued reliance on industrial, telecoms, and extractive sectors, with growth reflecting strengthened non-oil revenue mobilization following the implementation of new tax reforms in January 2026 and improved compliance initiatives targeting Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
Nigeria Company Income Tax (CIT) Falls to ₦1.37trillion in Q1 2026, Down 31.05% Year-on-Year as Foreign Firms Dominate Collections
Nigeria’s Company Income Tax (CIT) collections declined to ₦1.37trillion in First Quarter (Q1) 2026, representing a -8.08% quarter-on-quarter drop from ₦1.49trillion in Fourth Quarter (Q4) 2025 and a sharper -31.05% year-on-year contraction, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), reflecting weakened corporate earnings across key sectors despite strong contributions from foreign firms, which accounted for ₦828.82billion (over 60.00%) of total collections versus ₦538.91billion from domestic companies; sectoral performance showed financial and insurance activities leading with 24.73%, followed by mining and quarrying (16.06%) and manufacturing (13.82%), while growth outliers included water supply (+485.71%) and household-related activities (+197.04%), contrasted by sharp declines in agriculture (-73.52%) and construction (-63.15%), underscoring uneven economic activity and the continued reliance on multinational companies for non-oil revenue amid ongoing tax reforms and fiscal consolidation efforts.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Warns Nigeria Over $5billion Derivatives Deal, Flags Transparency Risks Despite Stronger Reserves and Policy Gains
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cautioned Nigeria over its planned $5billion Total Return Swap (TRS) financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank, citing opacity and risk concerns, while noting that such derivative-based structures may obscure liabilities compared to conventional instruments like Eurobonds or concessional loans; despite this, the IMF acknowledged improved macroeconomic stability driven by reforms, with gross external reserves rising to about $50billion (highest in 17 years), declining risk premiums, and stronger capital inflows, although vulnerabilities persist including reliance on short-term portfolio inflows and poverty levels at 63.00% alongside widespread food insecurity; additionally, the Fund highlighted inefficiencies in monetary policy transmission, where a 100.00 basis point rate hike raises lending rates by 175.00–180.00 basis points but reductions translate to only 25.00–30.00 basis points, reinforcing high borrowing costs amid a tight monetary stance with Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50% and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.00%, while projecting medium-term growth above 4.00%, underscoring a mixed outlook where stronger fundamentals coexist with structural risks and limited trickle-down benefits to households.
Nigeria Petrol Import Bill Crashes 96.15% to ₦87.40billion in Q1 2026 as Dangote Refinery Drives Structural Shift
Nigeria’s petrol import bill declined sharply to ₦87.40billion in First Quarter (Q1) 2026 from ₦2.27trillion in Q1 2025, representing a -96.15% year-on-year drop and a -97.53% quarter-on-quarter fall from ₦3.54trillion in Fourth Quarter (Q4) 2025, translating to savings of ₦2.18trillion and ₦3.45trillion respectively, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), as increased domestic refining primarily from the Dangote Refinery reduced import dependence; petrol’s share of total imports fell significantly to 0.64% from 13.64% in Q1 2025 and 20.52% in Q4 2025, contributing to an overall import decline of -18.17% year-on-year to ₦13.62trillion, while within fuels and lubricants, total imports dropped to ₦2.51trillion (-58.80% year-on-year) amid an -87.67% collapse in processed fuel imports to ₦605.53billion, contrasted by a +60.48% rise in primary fuel imports to ₦1.91trillion, reflecting a structural shift in Nigeria’s energy trade balance supported by increased local supply of 3.18 billion litres (+59.20%) and a reduction in imports to 965.52 million litres (-60.20%), with domestic refineries now accounting for 76.70% of total petrol supply.
Next week, Investors’ will lookout for the upcoming inflation report, where a mild uptick in inflation could reinforce expectations of a tighter policy stance, providing some support to the naira external pressures from global dollar strength and broader market volatility are likely to persist, which could keep trading conditions cautious despite underlying stability.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market softened during the week, with average benchmark yields increasing by 10 basis points week-on-week to close at 6.87%, reflecting mild sell-side pressure across the curve. The uptick in yields was driven by cautious offshore positioning and a modest pullback in emerging market sentiment, as investors reacted to global rate uncertainty and shifting risk appetite, leading to selective profit‑taking across sovereign maturities.
Next week, the market is expected to remain relatively steady, supported by underlying confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory and external position, although upside momentum in prices may remain capped by global interest rate dynamics, particularly movements in US Treasury yields and broader geopolitical developments.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded with heightened volatility and a clear downside bias, settling around $4,180.00–$4,240.00 per ounce after briefly testing lows near $4,020.00. The metal declined roughly 2.90%–3.10% week-on-week, pressured by elevated real yields, firm US inflation data, and a relatively strong dollar which continue to weigh on non-yielding assets. Softer ETF demand and improving sentiment around a potential US–Iran agreement further reduced safe-haven flows.
OIL
Oil prices reversed sharply as geopolitical risk premium unwound, with Brent crude falling to $86.88–$88.55 per barrel and WTI to $84.00–$85.00 per barrel, reflecting a weekly decline of about 6%–7.70%. The move was driven by expectations of a US–Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore disrupted supply. However, continued military incidents and uncertainty around a final agreement keep volatility elevated, while prior supply disruptions still support underlying prices.
ETF
ETF flows remained robust but defensive in structure, with total net issuance of about $61.28billion and strong inflows into fixed-income funds (over $31.41billion), reflecting continued demand for yield and stability. In contrast, commodity ETFs – especially gold – recorded outflows as investors rotated away from non-yielding assets. Flows are expected to remain skewed toward fixed income, while commodity exposure stays cautious amid persistent macro uncertainty.
Gold is expected to remain under near-term pressure, with prices seen recovering toward ~$4,355 per ounce by quarter-end, supported by geopolitics but constrained by elevated real yields. Oil is expected to remain volatile with a soft bias as geopolitical risk premium unwinds, although tight supply conditions should limit downside. ETF flows should stay skewed toward fixed income, as demand for yield continues to outweigh appetite for commodities.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system stayed robust throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦4.50trillion, a decrease of ₦285.89billion from the previous week’s close, attributed to net Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) settlement, liquidity declined further on Tuesday by ₦1.61trillion to open at ₦2.89trillion owing to Monday’s OMO auction settlement, Wednesday saw improvement of ₦1.64trillion owing to OMO maturity into the system taking liquidity to ₦4.71trillion. System liquidity experienced a decline of ₦5.66billion on Friday to close at ₦4.71trillion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Next week, attention would shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Primary Market where the DMO plans to offer a total of ₦1trillion across tenors as against ₦184.79billion maturing, amidst elevating market rates.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market was only opened for four trading days this week as Federal Government declared Friday 12, June 2026, as a Public Holiday to commemorate 2026 Democracy Day. The Equities market managed to closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.88% to close at 244,738.74 and ₦156.97trillion respectively compared to 243,379.63 and ₦156.09trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.96 billion shares worth ₦207.52billion in 235,966 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.97 billion shares valued at ₦175.66billion that exchanged hands last week in 343,587 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed mixed, with the Banking, Oil and Gas and Insurance indices rising by 0.95%, 0.50% and 1.63% while the Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices fell by 0.54% and 1.00% week on week.
Notable gainers this week were Associated Bus Company PLC and Consolidated Hallmark Holdings PLC while Fidson Healthcare PLC and Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect a cautiously positive tone in the equities market, supported by interest in fundamentally strong stocks. However, profit-taking may still drive short-term volatility and keep trading selective.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 11/06/2026 | 05/06/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,363.83 | 1,362.21 | 0.12% |
| Parallel | 1,390.00 | 1,390.00 | 0.00%Top |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ABCTRANS | 6.21 | 7.80 | 1.59 | 25.60% |
| CONHALLPLC | 6.70 | 8.25 | 1.55 | 23.13% |
| ABBEYBDS | 9.35 | 11.40 | 2.05 | 21.93% |
| INFINITY | 9.35 | 11.25 | 1.90 | 20.32% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 3.76 | 4.33 | 0.57 | 15.16% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| FIDSON | 136.50 | 101.20 | -35.30 | -25.86% |
| NEIMETH | 10.60 | 8.55 | -2.05 | -19.34% |
| UHOMREIT | 84.70 | 70.00 | -14.70 | -17.36% |
| SUNUASSUR | 4.48 | 3.97 | -0.51 | -11.38% |
| UNILEVER | 156.00 | 140.00 | -16.00 | -10.26% |
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