GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged but signaled a higher-for-longer stance, with roughly half of FOMC members projecting at least one rate hike in 2026 and markets assigning about a 50% probability to a 25bp hike in September. Inflation concerns remain persistent, with policymakers noting that price growth has stayed above the 2% target for several years, reinforcing expectations of tighter policy. Meanwhile, import prices surged 1.90% month‑on‑month in May (vs. 1% forecast) and 6.70% year‑on‑year, while export prices rose 1.30% on the month and accelerated sharply to 11.20% annually, reflecting broad-based cost pressures driven in part by energy price increases. Energy dynamics also contributed to inflation pressures, with fuel import prices jumping 12.50% amid Middle East disruptions, while natural gas inventories rose by 73 bcf slightly below expectations but broadly in line with seasonal averages, leaving stockpiles 1% below last year and 5.80% above the five-year norm.
The Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in a 7–2 vote, signaling a cautious stance as inflation eased to 2.80% but is still expected to rise later in the year, while markets price at least one additional 25bp hike in 2026 alongside similar expectations for the Fed. Fiscal pressures intensified, with UK public borrowing rising to £23.30billion in May (vs. £18.50billion forecast and £17.90billion a year earlier), as debt climbed to 95.10% of GDP, reflecting higher spending and record debt interest costs. Retail sales rebounded strongly by 1.20% month‑on‑month (vs. ‑1% prior, 0.50% expected) and 3.20% year‑on‑year, supported by online demand and seasonal spending, while consumer confidence held at ‑23 but weakened beneath the surface due to political uncertainty and cautious household sentiment. Labour conditions remained relatively stable, with employment rising by 100,000 (vs. 75,000 expected) and wage growth holding at 3.40% year‑on‑year, though private sector pay slowed and real wage growth remained subdued at 0.10%.
The Euro hovered around €1/$1.15, its weakest level since mid-March, and was on track for a weekly decline of about 1% amid broad-based dollar strength. Sentiment was hit after planned US-Iran peace talks in Switzerland were abruptly cancelled, renewing doubts over the durability of the tentative agreement reached over the weekend to end the Middle East conflict. Eurozone construction output rose 0.60% month‑on‑month and 0.90% year‑on‑year in April (vs. 0.20% previously), driven by stronger specialized activities (+1.70%), while building construction remained in contraction at ‑5.20%, albeit improving from ‑7.10%. Wage growth accelerated to 3.40% year‑on‑year in Q1 2026 from 3.10%, with broad-based gains across major economies, including Germany (3.40% vs. 2.70%) and Spain (5.10% vs. 3.80%), indicating persistent underlying inflationary pressure. Policy expectations remain firm, with the European Central Bank (ECB) having recently hiked rates and money markets pricing at least one additional increase this year, as officials signal readiness to tighten further if wage‑driven inflation broadens beyond energy.
China’s market sentiment remained cautious ahead of China’s upcoming Loan Prime Rate decision, particularly as recent data highlighted uneven economic performance. Fixed‑asset investment contracted sharply by 4.10% year‑on‑year in January–May (vs. ‑2% expected and ‑1.60% prior), with property investment plunging 16.20% and broader investment turning negative even excluding real estate (‑1.20% vs. +1.30% previously), underscoring persistent structural weakness. In contrast, industrial production offered some support, rising 4.50% year‑on‑year in May (vs. 4.30% forecast and 4.10% prior), driven by stronger manufacturing and utilities output, though mining activity slowed and some sectors such as non‑metallic minerals remained in contraction. On the policy side, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) signaled a shift toward a more flexible short‑term rate framework, including greater use of overnight rates and expanded liquidity tools, alongside new measures to promote yuan internationalization.
Next week, the resumption of tanker traffic through Strait of Hormuz will be a key focus after the US and Iran agreed to lift naval blockades. In US, Uk and Euro area, investors will watch personal income and spending, PCE inflation, PMIs, and consumer sentiment.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities closed higher, as tech strength and optimism over the US-Iran deal offset concerns over a hawkish Federal Reserve. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 1.03%, 1.37% and 3.94% to 26,517.93, 7,500.58 and 51,564.70, respectively.
European equity indices closed lower on Friday, as oil prices remained volatile amid mixed signals surrounding US-Iran negotiations and renewed tensions between Israel and Lebanon. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC40 indices increased by 1.27%, 2.66%, 3.80% to 10,363.27, 24,985.828 and 8,421.14, respectively.
Asian indices showed mixed performance, as policy support and optimism toward the technology sector boosted Chinese stocks. Compared to last week, the Topix index increased by 4.20% and 4,044.96 while the Hang Seng index decreased by 1.98% to 23,924.81.
Next week, Global markets are expected to remain volatile and data-dependent, with sentiment driven by US–Iran developments affecting energy prices.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Inflation Rises to 15.93% as Consumer Prices Climb, Despite Slower Monthly Increase
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 15.93% in May 2026 from 15.69% in April, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 140.70 points from 138.30 points, reflecting persistent price pressures across the economy. However, month-on-month inflation moderated to 1.75% from 2.13%, indicating a slower pace of price increases. Food inflation stood at 16.96% year-on-year, while monthly food inflation eased to 2.98% from 3.63%. Core inflation, which excludes farm produce and energy, rose to 16.82% year-on-year, with its monthly rate increasing to 1.94% from 1.03%. Urban inflation reached 16.07%, while rural inflation was 15.60%. Encouragingly, key 12-month averages showed improving trends, with average food inflation declining to 16.99% from 33.21%, urban inflation to 18.27% from 32.55%, rural inflation to 18.19% from 28.36%, and core inflation to 19.59% from 27.05% a year earlier. The data suggests that while annual inflation remains elevated, underlying price pressures are gradually easing despite global energy and food market disruptions.
FAAC Distributes Record ₦2.30trillion for May 2026 as Statutory Revenue Surges Despite VAT Decline
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributed ₦2.30trillion to the Federal Government, states and local government councils for May 2026, up from ₦2.26trillion shared in the previous month. The allocation comprised ₦1.61trillion from statutory revenue and ₦688.79billion from Value Added Tax (VAT). Gross revenue available for the month stood at ₦3.40trillion, from which ₦123.55billion was deducted for collection costs and ₦971.61billion for transfers, interventions and refunds. The Federal Government received ₦818.68billion, 36 state governments received ₦759.14billion, 774 local government councils received ₦534.28billion, while oil-producing states received ₦188.13billion as 13% derivation revenue. The increase in distributable revenue was driven by a rise in gross statutory revenue to ₦2.65trillion from ₦2.38trillion in April, supported by stronger collections from Companies Income Tax (CIT), Petroleum Profit Tax (PPT), Hydrocarbon Tax (HT), Oil and Gas Royalties, Import Duties, Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and Stamp Duties (SDT), which offset a decline in VAT collections to ₦743.67billion from ₦806.62billion in the previous month.
Nigeria’s Current Account Surplus Jumps 255.71% to $4.98billion as Exports Surge and Fuel Imports Collapse
Nigeria’s current account surplus surged by 255.71% quarter-on-quarter to $4.98billion in Q1 2026, from $1.40billion in Q4 2025, driven by stronger export earnings and a sharp decline in refined petroleum imports. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the goods account surplus rose 236.16% to $5.95billion, supported by a 15.94% increase in total exports to $15.49billion. Crude oil exports climbed 19.79% to $8.11billion, gas exports rose 12.95% to $2.53billion, and refined petroleum exports increased 20.30% to $2.37billion. Meanwhile, total imports fell 17.69% to $9.54billion, largely due to an 87.50% drop in refined petroleum imports to $0.31billion. Despite the strong external performance, remittances declined to $5.30billion from $5.72billion, while the services deficit widened to $3.71billion. Foreign portfolio inflows remained robust at $6.03billion, helping external reserves increase by $2.60billion to $48.35billion at the end of March 2026. However, the overall balance of payments surplus eased to $2.38billion from $2.67billion, reflecting persistent pressures from a wider services deficit and net errors and omissions of -$7.49billion.
Nigeria’s Tax Revenue Surges 49.00% to ₦15.80trillion as FG Unveils Transition Rules for New Tax Regime
Nigeria’s tax revenue rose by 49% to ₦15.80trillion in the first five months of 2026, as the Federal Government released implementation guidelines for the Tax Acts 2025, which took effect on January 1, 2026. The guidelines clarify that tax liabilities, audits, investigations, disputes and enforcement actions relating to periods before January 1, 2026, will continue to be governed by the repealed tax laws, while obligations from that date onward will fall under the new framework. Existing tax incentives and exemptions will remain valid until expiry, while new and pending applications will be assessed under the new regime. According to the government, the framework is designed to ensure clarity, fairness and administrative certainty, support uniform implementation across tax authorities, improve voluntary compliance, strengthen revenue administration and enhance Nigeria’s investment climate as part of broader fiscal reform efforts.
FG Rejects IMF Tax Proposals, Confirms No New Telecoms or Fuel Taxes as VAT Waiver Remains Intact
The Federal Government of Nigeria has dismissed reports suggesting plans to impose new taxes on telecommunications services and petroleum products, stressing that recommendations contained in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV Consultation Report are advisory and not government policy. The government confirmed that the Value Added Tax (VAT) waiver on fuel remains in place and that the telecommunications excise duty introduced before 2023 has been repealed under the new tax laws. It also clarified that although existing legislation permits a fuel surcharge, no such measure is being considered. Rather than increasing the tax burden on citizens and businesses, the government said its focus remains on improving revenue administration, expanding economic activity, eliminating inefficiencies, attracting investment and creating jobs. The clarification follows IMF recommendations that Nigeria consider extending VAT to fuel products and reintroducing excise duties on telecommunications services to boost revenue, proposals that have drawn concerns over their potential impact on living costs and inflation.
Foreign VAT Revenue Jumps 82.61% to Record ₦830.47Billion, While Company Income Tax Falls 31.05% to ₦1.37Trillion in Q1 2026
Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT) collections from foreign companies surged by 82.61% year-on-year to a record ₦830.47billion in Q1 2026, up from ₦454.76billion in Q1 2025, driven by stronger compliance from non-resident service providers and the implementation of the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, which expanded taxation of cross-border digital transactions. Foreign VAT was a key driver of total VAT collections, which rose 17.06% to ₦2.42trillion during the quarter. In contrast, Company Income Tax (CIT) revenue declined 31.05% year-on-year and 8.08% quarter-on-quarter to ₦1.37trillion, reflecting weaker corporate tax receipts across several sectors. Foreign companies contributed ₦828.82billion, accounting for over 60.00% of total CIT revenue, while domestic firms contributed ₦538.91billion. The Financial and Insurance sector remained the largest CIT contributor at 24.73%, followed by Mining and Quarrying (16.06%) and Manufacturing (13.82%). The data underscores Nigeria’s growing success in taxing digital and cross-border economic activity, even as broader corporate tax collections face pressure from weaker business performance across key sectors.
CBN Mandates Local Storage of Payment Data, Sets Market Share Caps and Ownership Disclosure Rules for Banks and Fintechs
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has directed banks, fintech companies, mobile money operators and other payment service providers to store all payment transaction data generated in Nigeria on local servers from January 1, 2027, as part of efforts to strengthen regulatory oversight, data security and financial system resilience. The apex bank also introduced stricter transparency requirements, mandating the disclosure of Ultimate Beneficial Ownership (UBO) information for significant shareholders to curb money laundering and illicit financial flows. To reduce market concentration risks, the CBN imposed new limits preventing institutions with over 25.00% market share in card issuing from holding more than 15.00% of merchant acquiring activities, and vice versa, with full compliance required by December 31, 2026. The measures come amid rapid growth in Nigeria’s digital payments ecosystem and increasing regulatory focus on data sovereignty, cybersecurity and competition within the financial sector.
Next week, Investors’ will lookout for the upcoming inflation report, where a mild uptick in inflation could reinforce expectations of a tighter policy stance, providing some support to the naira external pressures from global dollar strength and broader market volatility are likely to persist, which could keep trading conditions cautious despite underlying stability.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobond market weakened during the week, with average benchmark yields rising by 16bps week-on-week to close at 6.93%, reflecting increased sell-side pressure across the curve. The uptick in yields towards the close of the week was driven by cautiousness from Investors as the proposed signing of the peace deal between US and Iran was postponed, cautious offshore investor positioning, renewed uncertainty over global interest rate movements, and a moderate shift in risk sentiment across emerging markets, prompting selective profit-taking in Nigerian sovereign bonds. Despite the softness, investor confidence remains supported by Nigeria’s improving external position, including stronger foreign reserves and a widening current account surplus.
Looking ahead, the market is expected to trade within a narrow range, with positive sentiment from ongoing economic reforms likely to provide support, although gains may remain constrained by movements in United States Treasury yields, global monetary policy expectations, and geopolitical developments that could influence emerging market flows.
Next week, the market is expected to trade within a narrow range as investors monitor developments in the signing of United States-Iran peace deal. Positive sentiment from Nigeria’s ongoing reforms may provide support, while gains could be constrained by United States Treasury yields, global rate expectations, and geopolitical risks affecting emerging market flows.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded lower during the week, with spot prices falling to around $4,160.26/oz, representing a weekly decline of approximately 1.40%. The precious metal came under pressure from a stronger United States dollar, elevated real yields and a more hawkish United States Federal Reserve outlook, which reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. Improved sentiment surrounding potential United States-Iran de-escalation efforts also weighed on safe-haven demand, triggering profit-taking across bullion markets.
OIL
Oil prices declined sharply during the week as geopolitical risk premiums continued to unwind. Brent crude closed at $80.57 per barrel, down from $87.33 per barrel a week earlier, representing a weekly loss of approximately 7.74%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled near $77.33 per barrel. The decline was driven by expectations of improved Middle East stability and the potential normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the cancellation of follow-up United States-Iran talks and lingering regional tensions kept volatility elevated.
ETF
Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) flows remained resilient, with investors continuing to favour fixed-income assets amid uncertainty around global growth and interest rates. For the week ended June 10, 2026, aggregate inflows into long-term funds and ETFs stood at $31.52billion, supported by $18.21billion of inflows into bond funds, while commodity funds recorded $2.27billion of outflows, reflecting reduced appetite for commodities, including gold. The trend underscores continued demand for yield and defensive positioning.
Gold may remain under pressure due to elevated real yields and a strong United States dollar, while geopolitical risks could offer some support. Oil is expected to trade cautiously amid developments in United States-Iran relations, with tight supply conditions limiting downside. ETF flows should remain tilted toward fixed income as investors continue to favour yield and stability.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Treasury Bills Auction Oversubscribed by ₦442.61 Billion as Investor Demand Reaches ₦1.86 Trillion; Stop Rates Climb to 17.34%
The latest Nigerian Treasury Bills auction recorded strong investor appetite, with total subscriptions of ₦1.86trillion, representing 1.86x the ₦1trillion offered. The auction achieved a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.29x, while total allotment stood at ₦1.44trillion, resulting in an oversubscription of ₦442.61billion, although slightly below the ₦1.46trillion allotted at the previous auction.
Yield pressures persisted as stop rates rose across all tenors, with the 91-day bill increasing by 23 basis point to 16.28%, the 182-day bill by 31 basis points to 16.50%, and the 364-day bill by 99 basis points to 17.34%, reflecting continued demand for higher returns amid tightening liquidity conditions.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system stayed robust throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦3.23trillion, a decline of ₦1.48trillion from the previous week’s close, attributed to Thursday’s OMO auction Settlement, liquidity increased on Tuesday by ₦512.49billion to open at ₦2.89trillion, Wednesday saw an increase of ₦1.40trillion owing to Tuesday’s OMO Maturity and Coupon Payment into the system taking liquidity to ₦5.14trillion. System liquidity experienced a decline on Thursday and Friday, to close at ₦3.98trillion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield increased week-on-week by 15bps to 17.96%.
The Bonds market yields closed higher this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds increased by 47bps, 70bps and 49bps to 17.34%, 17.41% and 16.23% respectively.
Next week, attention would shift to the FGN Bond Auction Market where the DMO is offering a total of ₦600billion across the FGN JAN 2035 (10-YR RE-OPENING) – ₦300billion and FGN APR 2037 (20-YR RE-OPENING) – ₦300billion
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a bearish note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 3.59% to close at 235,941.27 and ₦151.33trillion respectively compared to 244,738.74 and ₦156.97trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.08 billion shares worth ₦254.61billion in 287,157 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.96 billion shares valued at ₦207.52billion that exchanged hands last week in 235,966 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed negative, with the Banking, Oil and Gas, Insurance, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices fell by 10.49%, 1.06%, 7.22%, 1.61% and 4.11% week on week.
Notable gainers this week were Cornerstone Insurance PLC and Academy Press PLC while International Energy Isurance PLC and First Holdco PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the profit taking sentiments to persist even as investors hand pick fundamentally strong stocks for investing.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 19/06/2026 | 11/06/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,370.46 | 1,363.83 | 0.49% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,390.00 | 0.72% |
TOG GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| CORNERST | 5.45 | 6.05 | 0.60 | 11.01% |
| ACADEMY | 7.45 | 8.10 | 0.65 | 8.72% |
| CONOIL | 194.00 | 210.00 | 16.00 | 8.25% |
| NEIMETH | 8.55 | 8.95 | 0.40 | 4.68% |
| IKEJAHOTEL | 43.15 | 44.60 | 1.45 | 3.36% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTENEGINS | 7.11 | 5.06 | -2.05 | -28.83% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 69.00 | 55.00 | -14.00 | -20.29% |
| JOHNHOLT | 13.60 | 11.20 | -2.40 | -17.65% |
| NAHCO | 179.50 | 148.50 | -31.00 | -17.27% |
| ZICHIS | 31.00 | 26.00 | -5.00 | -16.13% |
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