GLOBAL ECONOMY
This week, the Iran war remained in a fragile ceasefire phase, but tensions stayed elevated as President Trump said the truce was still holding while expressing frustration with Iran’s response to US proposals, which he described as unacceptable. He warned that the US could escalate military action, including increasing strikes and potentially resuming naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, if negotiations fail. Talks continued indirectly with support from intermediaries and Chinese engagement, but negotiations remained stalled with no breakthrough as both sides hardened their positions.
US inflation accelerated in April 2026, with headline CPI rising to 3.80% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 3.30% in March, driven largely by energy prices (+17.90% y-o-y; gasoline +28.40%, fuel oil +54.30%) amid the Iran war, alongside firmer shelter (3.30%) and moderate food inflation (2.30%), while monthly CPI increased 0.60% (Mar: 0.90%). Core inflation edged higher to 2.80% y-o-y (Mar: 2.60%), and 0.40% month-on-month (m-o-m), reflecting rising prices in shelter (+0.60%), transportation services (+0.30%), and apparel (+0.60%). Producer Price Index surged by 1.40% m-o-m (Mar: 0.70%) and 6% y-o-y (Mar: 4.30%), driven by goods (+2%, gasoline +15.60%) and services (+1.20%), signaling continued pipeline inflation risks.
The UK economy gained momentum in early 2026, with GDP growing 0.60% in Q1 compared to 0.20% in the previous quarter, the strongest quarterly performance in a year, while annual growth rose to 1.10%, above expectations. The improvement was driven mainly by the services sector, supported by stronger wholesale and retail trade, information and communication services. Manufacturing activity also improved toward the end of the quarter, with output rebounding strongly in March, led by recoveries in transport equipment, metals, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and food production. However, overall industrial activity remained mixed, as declines in energy production and mining offset part of the manufacturing gains.
Euro Area growth slowed in Q1 2026, with GDP expanding by 0.80% year‑on‑year and by just 0.10% quarterly, down from 1.20% in the previous quarter. The slowdown was largely driven by the energy shock linked to the Middle East conflict, which pushed up oil and gas prices and weighed on household spending and industrial activity. Growth weakened across several major economies, including Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, while Spain and Portugal remained relatively resilient.
China’s inflation pressures firmed in April 2026, with headline CPI rising to 1.20% year‑on‑year from 1%, above expectations, driven mainly by higher non‑food prices as energy costs and transport prices picked up amid supply disruptions linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict. Price increases were broad‑based across transport, clothing, healthcare, and education, even as housing prices continued to fall, while food prices declined, led by weak pork prices and lower vegetable and fruit costs, helping to cap overall inflation. Core inflation edged up to 1.20%, pointing to strengthening underlying price pressures.
Next week, we expect economies to remain sensitive to US–Iran rhetoric, while risk sentiment hinges the Fed minutes, which may clarify policy direction after recent dissents.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US stocks fell as Investors grew increasingly concerned about the impact of the prolonged conflict with Iran, particularly the risk that higher energy prices could further fuel inflation and keep interest rates elevated. Compared to last week, the Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices decreased by -0.08% and -0.17% to 26,225.15 and 49,526.17 while the S&P index increased by 0.13% to 7,408.50.
European stocks closed lower last week as Investors reacted to a mix of concerns over rising inflation, interest rate uncertainty and mounting political tensions in the UK. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by -0.37%, -1.59% and -1.97% to 10,195.37, 23,950.57 and 7,952.55, respectively.
Asian stocks closed mix as Investors remained underwhelmed by the limited concrete details from the Trump–Xi summit. During the second day at Zhongnanhai, Trump said that “a lot of good” had come from the visit and claimed the two sides had reached “fantastic trade deals,” while Xi said both countries had agreed to stabilize trade ties, expand cooperation, and manage differences constructively. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng decreased by -1.63% to 25,962.73 while the Topix index increased by 0.90% to 3,863.97.
Next week, markets will stay focused on the Fed minutes, as well as corporate earnings from major companies which will take center stage, with Nvidia expected to surpass market expectations in its highly anticipated report.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria Inflation Climbs to 15.69% as Food and Energy Pressures Persist Despite Monthly Easing
Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.69% in April 2026 from 15.38% in March (up 0.31%-points year-on-year), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), highlighting sustained price pressures driven by food, energy and supply chain disruptions, even as month-on-month inflation sharply eased to 2.13% from 4.18%; rural inflation (16.36%) exceeded urban inflation (15.40%), while food inflation stood at 16.06% (down significantly from 24.68% in April 2025) amid rising costs of staples such as millet, beans and tomatoes, and core inflation (excluding volatile items) slowed to 15.86% from 26.05% year-on-year; globally, inflationary risks intensified as Brent crude surged to $120.40 per barrel (from $103.70), notably, Nigeria’s inflation came slightly below the Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) forecast of 16.42%, suggesting faster-than-expected moderation in some segments, ahead of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
Nigeria Seeks $1.25billion World Bank Loan as Debt Risks Persist Despite Fiscal Reforms
Nigeria is negotiating a $1.25bn World Bank Development Policy Financing (DPF) facility, targeted for approval in June 2026, to support reforms in finance, power, digital services, and tax policy, building on subsidy removal and FX reforms since 2023 that have improved reserves and investor confidence. However, growth remains weak and inclusive outcomes limited, with over 60% of Nigerians still in poverty, while fiscal risks are rising as public debt climbs to ₦159.3trn, debt service nears ₦16trn, and the Debt Burden Index (though lower in 2024) faced renewed pressure in 2025, underscoring tight fiscal space despite rising multilateral support.
S&P Upgrades Nigeria to ‘B’ as Reforms Boost FX Liquidity, Reserves to $50billion
S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign and local currency credit ratings to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, affirming short-term ratings at ‘B’ and raising national scale ratings to ‘ngA+/ngA-1’, citing gains from structural reforms under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, improved foreign exchange (FX) liquidity and stronger fiscal performance, with external reserves rising sharply to $50billion in March 2026 from $33billion in 2023, while average monthly FX turnover increased to $8.60billion in 2025 and reached $10billion in April 2026 alone.
The agency noted that exchange rate liberalisation, increased refining capacity (notably the Dangote refinery at 650,000 barrels per day) and fiscal measures such as higher oil revenue remittances are strengthening macroeconomic stability and Investor confidence, with projections indicating government revenue rising to 12.40% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2026 (from 7.30% in 2023), oil production averaging 1.66 million barrels per day, current account surplus at 5.80% of GDP, inflation declining to 17.70% (from 23% in 2025) and GDP growth moderating to 3.70% in 2026, while maintaining a stable outlook anchored on sustained reform implementation and improved fiscal discipline.
Nigeria Oil Output Hits 1.66 mbpd as Petrol Imports Crash 60.20% on Refinery Surge
Nigeria’s oil and downstream sector recorded significant gains in April 2026, with total crude oil and condensate production rising 7.58% month-on-month to 1.66 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.55 mbpd in March, driven by improved upstream performance, with crude output at 1.49 mbpd, achieving 99.20% of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, while condensates contributed 174,873 barrels per day.
Major fields such as Bonga (3.06 million barrels) and Erha (2.05 million barrels) supported growth, as Nigeria recorded its highest production level in 2026 amid ongoing reforms and operational improvements; in the downstream sector, petrol imports declined sharply by 60.20% year-on-year to 965.52 million litres in the first quarter of 2026 from 2.43 billion litres in 2025, while local refinery supply surged 59.20% to 3.18 billion litres, increasing domestic contribution to 76.70% of total supply (from 45.20%), largely driven by the Dangote Refinery, which produced 53.60 million litres per day and supplied 40.70 million litres daily to the domestic market at 99.12% capacity utilization. Cconsequently, national petrol consumption rose to 51.10 million litres per day (from 47.30 million litres), underscoring stronger demand and a structural shift toward local refining, despite challenges such as declining crude feedstock supply (0.61 mbpd from 0.67 mbpd) and continued inactivity of state-owned refineries.
Next week, investors will assess the newly released April inflation data alongside outcomes from the 305th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to guide their economic and investment decisions.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market recorded losses during the week, with average yields rising by 23bps to 6.94%, reflecting softer demand and a deterioration in investor sentiment across the curve. The uptick in yields indicates reduced appetite for Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated debt, as global macro headwinds and tighter financial conditions weighed on participation. The performance points to a more cautious stance from investors, amid concerns around global rates and Nigeria’s external position, despite still-elevated yield levels offering some carry support.
We expect sentiment to stay cautious and selective, with price action driven by US yields, global risk appetite, and Nigeria’s macro-outlook. Elevated yields may attract some interest, but uncertainty could keep activity subdued.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
OPEC+ Moves to Restore 1.65mbpd Output Cuts Amid Geopolitical Supply Disruptions
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) plans to fully restore its 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd) production cut by September 2026 through phased quota increases, having already reinstated about two-thirds of the reduction, with three additional monthly increments expected despite major constraints from the Middle East conflict disrupting exports via key routes.
While the group approved a modest 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) increase for June and previously planned 206,000 bpd for May, actual output gains remain largely theoretical as production in key members declines sharply, with Saudi Arabia output falling to 6.30 mbpd (lowest since 1990) and Kuwait dropping to roughly 25.00% of pre-war levels, while Iraq and the United Arab Emirates also face disruptions, underscoring tight global supply conditions and elevated prices, even as OPEC+ which accounts for about 40.00% of global crude production balances quota expansion with ongoing geopolitical risks ahead of its June 7 policy meeting to review July production levels.
GOLD
Gold ended the week lower and volatile, closing around $4,547.89/oz (‑4.00% w/w) amid rising US yields and a stronger dollar. The decline reflects a shift to a higher‑for‑longer Fed outlook, with elevated real yields continuing to weigh on non‑yielding assets despite some geopolitical support. Overall, gold remains caught between structural safe haven demand and tightening financial conditions, with near-term price action pointing to consolidation with a mild downside bias.
OIL
Oil prices ended the week higher, with Brent near $109.24/bbl and WTI around $102–$104/bbl, supported by tight supply, ongoing disruptions to key shipping routes, and strong inventory drawdowns. Price action remained volatile and headline-driven, as shifting geopolitical developments and uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence sentiment, keeping risk premia firmly embedded and upside risks elevated.
ETF
ETF flows continued to reflect defensive and income-focused positioning. Fixed income ETFs saw sustained inflows, with weekly allocations of roughly $10.62bn, driven by demand for yield and duration amid macro uncertainty. In contrast, commodity ETFs recorded modest net outflows (~$0.17bn), as investors took profits following the sharp rally in energy markets and rising price volatility. Broader flow data also confirms continued preference for fixed income exposure over cyclical risk, highlighting a market environment characterised by cautious capital allocation and selective risk-taking.
Gold likely stays range-bound with a slight downside bias amid firm real yields and USD. Oil remains headline-driven, with Brent in a $105–$115/bbl range. Bond ETFs should see steady inflows, while commodity demand stays tactical.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
PenCom Grants PFAs Waiver to Invest in Dangote Refinery $50billion IPO
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has issued a one-off regulatory waiver permitting Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the upcoming Initial Public Offering (IPO) of Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals (DPRP), temporarily suspending standard requirements such as profitability and dividend history due to the refinery’s strategic economic importance and strong backing from Dangote Industries Limited, part of a broader $40billion industrial expansion.
The IPO, expected in mid-2026, will offer about 10% equity to the public and could value the refinery at approximately $50billion (about ₦70trillion), positioning it among Africa’s largest listings, with PenCom maintaining that PFAs must apply internal risk frameworks and remain fully accountable to contributors, while the offering is set to leverage digital channels including Point-of-Sale (POS) systems and mobile platforms to drive mass participation, signaling a significant shift in pension fund investment flexibility aimed at supporting capital market depth and economic growth.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦4.92trillion, a decline of ₦748.29billion from the previous week’s close, driven by net Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) settlement, liquidity declined on Tuesday by ₦104.06billion owing to additional CRR debits by CBN, Wednesday witnessed an increase of ₦505.63billion, following net OMO settlement maturing into the system, declining on Thursday by ₦42.50billion. Liquidity improved on Friday by ₦314.75billion to ₦5.59trillion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged at 22.00%.
Next week, focus will return to the primary market as the Debt Management Office (DMO) offers ₦300.00 billion on the 22.60% Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) January 2035 (10-year reopening) and ₦300.00 billion on the 16.25% FGN April 2037 (20-year reopening), alongside ₦650.00 billion in Treasury Bills across tenors, exceeding the ₦634.47 billion maturing.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 2.27% and 2.13 to close the week at 250,330.92 and ₦160.44trillion respectively compared to 244,775.83 and ₦157.09trillion last week.
A total turnover of 7.772 billion shares worth ₦374.04billion in 402,95 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 7.08 billion shares valued at ₦324.35billion that exchanged hands last week in 474,436 deals.
On a sectoral basis, most sectors closed positive, with the Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Insurance indices rising by 2.82%, 1.65%, 4.66% and 2.74% while the Oil and Gas index fell by -1.19%.
Notable gainers this week Berger Paints PLC and SCOA Nigeria PLC while The Initiates PLC and Zichis Agro Allied Industries PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect selective but positive trading to persist, with investor interest focused on fundamentally strong stocks, while profit‑taking and sector rotation drive short‑term volatility amid sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions.
Currency
| (₦/$) | 15/05/2026 | 08/05/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,371.04 | 1,361.40 | 0.71% |
| Parallel | 1,395.00 | 1,395.00 | 0.00% |
Top Gainers
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| BERGER | 108.60 | 168.95 | 60.35 | 55.57% |
| SCOA | 22.65 | 33.05 | 10.40 | 45.92% |
| DAARCOMM | 1.58 | 2.25 | 0.67 | 42.41% |
| FIDSON | 103.00 | 136.50 | 33.50 | 32.52% |
| LEARNAFRCA | 8.20 | 10.85 | 2.65 | 32.32% |
Top Losers
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 33.36 | 29.43 | -3.93 | -11.78% |
| TIP | 35.90 | 32.30 | -3.60 | -10.03% |
| NPFMCRFBK | 6.40 | 5.76 | -0.64 | -10.00% |
| NCR | 199.00 | 179.10 | -19.90 | -10.00% |
| CUSTODIAN | 89.80 | 81.25 | -8.55 | -9.52% |
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