GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Trade deficit widened to $60.30billion, the largest this year, as imports hit a one‑year high (+2.30% month-on-month to $381.00billion) on strong demand for autos, consumer and capital goods, partly offset by record exports ($320.90billion, +2.00% month-on-month) boosted by higher energy prices. The labor market showed cooling yet resilience as payrolls rose 115K in April (unemployment 4.30%), job openings edged down to 6.87 million, quits ticked up to 3.17 million (rate 2.00%), private hiring beat expectations (+109K), while job cuts increased to 83,387, heavily concentrated in tech and AI‑related restructuring.
The British Pound strengthened above £1/$1.36, its highest level since mid‑February, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to remain in office despite early local election results showing Labour losing hundreds of council seats, while Reform UK gained ground and final results are still pending. UK Composite PMI rose to 52.60 in April 2026 (from 50.30), driven by expansions in both manufacturing and services despite higher energy costs linked to the Middle East conflict; however, employment fell for the 19th straight month, largely due to higher National Insurance contributions. The Services PMI climbed to 52.70, signaling moderate growth and resilient demand for tech services, but new business stayed subdued and input and output price inflation hit multi‑year highs as firms passed through higher transport, fuel and wage costs.
The Euro climbed above €1/$1.18, its strongest since April, even as investors priced at least two European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes in 2026, amid ECB assurances of readiness to act despite escalating energy‑led inflation risks. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.20, on the fastest growth in new orders and exports since 2022. In contrast, the Services PMI fell to 47.60, its first contraction in nearly a year and the sharpest since 2021. The Composite PMI slipped to 48.80, marking the first Euro‑area private‑sector contraction in 16 months. Producer prices surged 3.40% month-on-month in March, led by an 11.10% spike in energy, pushing annual PPI back into positive territory at 2.10% year-on-year. Construction remained deeply recessionary, with the Construction PMI at 41.70, the sharpest contraction since August 2024, as new orders and employment fell sharply across major economies.
The offshore Yuan strengthened to around ¥6.79/$1 strongest since February 2023, supported by hopes of a Trump–Xi summit, even as geopolitical risks linger from the Middle East conflict and China’s reported move to halt financing for US‑sanctioned refineries tied to Iranian oil. China’s composite PMI rose to 53.10 from 51.50, driven by faster expansions in both manufacturing and services, stronger new business inflows and a third straight rise in backlogs, while employment was broadly stable. On the external front, exports surged 14.10% year-on-year to a record $359.44billion, well above expectations, while imports jumped 25.30% year-on-year to $274.62billion, reflecting strong domestic demand for semiconductors, data‑processing equipment and industrial inputs, pushing the trade surplus down to $84.82billion (from $95.85billion a year earlier). For January–April 2026, the surplus narrowed to $347.70billion, as imports (+23.60%) outpaced exports (+14.50%). Financial markets reflected improving sentiment.
Next week, investors will track central‑bank communications and key global macro catalysts, alongside central bank policy decisions in major and emerging economies.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global markets traded with measured risk appetite and clear regional divergence in the week ended 08 May 2026, as Investors focused on resilient US macro data, easing bond yields, strong technology‑led earnings and volatile energy prices, while central‑bank signals from the Fed, ECB and BoE continued to anchor expectations amid persistent inflation risks and unresolved Middle East tensions.
US equity markets ended the week on a firm but mixed footing, with gains underpinned by robust corporate earnings, easing bond yields and continued outperformance in large‑cap technology names, even as leadership remained narrow. Technology and growth stocks drove advances. Compared to last week, the Dow jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices increased by 0.22%, 2.33% and 4.51% to 49,609.16, 7,398.93 and 26,247.08 respectively.
European and UK equities underperformed, weighed down by subdued growth momentum, cautious earnings outlooks and sticky inflation, with thin trading conditions early in the week due to May Day holidays amplifying moves. Compared to last week, the German DAX index increased by 0.19% to 24,338.63 while FTSE 100 and CAC 40 decreased by -1.26% and -0.03% to close at 10,233.07 and 8,112.57 respectively.
Asia markets posted broadly positive performances, led by China, as risk appetite improved on rising optimism over potential Middle East de‑escalation and anticipation of key diplomatic events. Mainland Chinese equities advanced. Compared to last week as the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 2.39% and 2.70% to 26,393.71 and 3,829.48 respectively.
Next week, markets will stay focused on Middle East geopolitical risk, with the fragile US–Iran ceasefire still a source of volatility, alongside key macro releases including US CPI and PPI.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Private Credit Surges 24.10% Year-on-Year to ₦94.61trillion Despite Tight Monetary Conditions
Nigeria’s private sector credit maintained strong momentum in February 2026, rising 24.10% year‑on‑year to ₦94.61trillion from ₦76.26trillion and edging up 0.90% month‑on‑month, underscoring resilient business activity and sustained bank risk appetite despite high interest rates, according to CBN data. Broad money supply (M3) increased 11.20% year-on-year to ₦123.12trillion, though it fell 0.70% month-on-month, signalling the growing impact of liquidity sterilisation measures, while narrow money (M2) mirrored the same trend. Net Domestic Credit expanded sharply by 29.60% year-on-year to ₦133.97trillion, driven largely by private sector borrowing, alongside a notable 45.20% year-on-year surge in government credit to ₦39.36trillion, reflecting rising fiscal financing pressures. Although the expansion in credit supports growth across key sectors such as manufacturing, trade and energy, it also heightens medium‑term inflation risks as system liquidity remains elevated relative to historical norms.
Nigeria Delivers Only 46.04% of Allocated Crude to Local Refineries in Q1 2026
Nigeria supplied just 28.50 million barrels of crude oil to domestic refineries in Q1 2026, falling sharply below the 61.90 million barrels allocated and the 68.70 million barrels offered by producers, translating to a delivery rate of 46.04%, according to NUPRC data. Monthly deliveries remained weak despite higher offers 9.20 million barrels in January versus 22.60 million allocated, 9.10 million in February against 20.50 million, and 10.10 million in March compared with 18.80 million with pricing disagreements between producers and refiners cited as the main constraint. The shortfall occurred alongside volatile production, averaging 1.46 million bpd in January, 1.31 million bpd in February, and 1.38 million bpd in March, and follows a broader output gap where Nigeria produced 92.00 million barrels in the first two months of 2026 versus a projected 108.60 million barrels, underscoring persistent challenges in meeting domestic crude supply obligations.
NNPC Boosts Fiscal Remittances to ₦2.89trillion in Q1 2026 as Refinery Revival Talks with China Advance
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd) remitted a total of ₦2.89trillion to the Federation Account in Q1 2026, reflecting stronger operational performance, rising production, and deepening oil‑sector reforms, while simultaneously advancing plans to revive its refineries through strategic Chinese partnerships. Monthly remittances climbed sharply from ₦726billion in January to ₦1.80trillion in February, supported by a March rebound that delivered ₦276billion profit after tax on ₦2.77trillion revenue, with crude oil and condensate production averaging 1.56 million barrels per day. The improved fiscal contribution aligns with President Tinubu’s February 2026 Executive Order mandating full oil revenue remittance and suspending NNPC deductions, reinforcing transparency and strengthening FAAC inflows. Alongside this, NNPC signed an MoU with Chinese firms to complete rehabilitation, operate, and expand the Warri and Port Harcourt refineries, including petrochemical and gas‑based industrial hubs, leveraging its improved financial position to pursue long‑term refinery revival after years of losses and stalled operations.
Subnational External Debt Jumps 18.43% to $5.68billion in 2025 as Majority of Nigerian States Increase Borrowing
External debt owed by 32 Nigerian states and the FCT rose sharply by $944.12million in 2025, lifting total subnational external debt to $5.68billion from $4.80billion in 2024, representing a year‑on‑year increase of $884.66million (18.43%), according to DMO data. The net rise was moderated by debt reductions of $59.46million in Edo, Rivers, Anambra, and Bayelsa, meaning debt would have climbed by nearly $1billion without these adjustments. Multilateral loans dominated the debt profile at $5.25billion (92.42%), while bilateral loans stood at $430.96million (7.58%), with no commercial or Eurobond exposure. Katsina (+$100.16million), Niger (+$73.38million), Kogi (+$66.08million), and Plateau (+$60.24million) led the increases, while Plateau recorded the steepest growth at 187.24%. States and the FCT accounted for 12% of Nigeria’s total external debt of $51.81billion, up from 10% in 2024, underscoring rising subnational reliance on external financing despite fiscal pressures.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor key domestic economic data releases, Inflation data, while waiting for the 305th MPC meeting to guide economic decisions.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market recorded modest gains during the week, with average yields declining by 15bps to 6.71% from 6.86% previously, reflecting improved demand and strengthening investor sentiment across the curve. The sharper yield compression points to a gradual pickup in appetite for Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated obligations as conditions in global fixed‑income markets ease, although participation remains selective rather than aggressive. The performance suggests growing confidence in the sovereign’s risk‑reward profile, supported by attractive carry, even as investors stay cautious.
Next week, market sentiment is expected to remain supportive but measured, with price action likely sensitive to movements in U.S. Treasury yields, global risk appetite, and evolving domestic macroeconomic signals, keeping trading broadly range‑bound despite improving tone.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
OPEC+ Approves 188,000 bpd Output Hike for June as UAE Exits Alliance, Signalling Fragile Oil Market Balance
OPEC+ has approved a modest 188,000 barrels‑per‑day production increase for June, even as the United Arab Emirates formally exited the alliance on May 01, 2026, underscoring growing internal strains amid global supply uncertainty. The adjustment, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, follows earlier voluntary pledges but is widely seen as largely symbolic, given export bottlenecks and rising geopolitical risks particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global crude flows. The decision comes after OPEC+’s output plunged 27.50% to 20.79 million bpd in March, one of the steepest drops in decades, highlighting continued volatility. While the group maintains its gradual output‑restoration strategy, the UAE’s departure removes a major producer from quota constraints, potentially reshaping supply dynamics as it pursues a ₦200billion dirham ($55billion) expansion plan outside OPEC+ in an already fragile oil market.
GOLD
Gold ended the week higher but volatile, supported by easing geopolitical tail risks and renewed safe‑haven demand, despite persistent headwinds from elevated real US yields. Spot gold closed around $4,714.89/oz, posting a c.2.40% w/w gain. Price action reflected a rebound from late‑April weakness as investors reassessed conflict risks and US rate expectations, though USD resilience continued to cap upside. Overall, gold remains supported by geopolitical hedging and central‑bank demand, but upside momentum is likely to stay constrained by restrictive financial conditions.
OIL
Oil prices finished the week higher overall, despite sharp intraday volatility driven by shifting Middle East headlines. Brent crude closed near $108.18/bbl, up c.3.32% w/w, while WTI settled around $102.50/bbl, gaining c.2.57% w/w. Prices were underpinned by tight global inventories and ongoing disruptions to key shipping routes, even as late‑week diplomatic speculation triggered some profit‑taking. Geopolitical risk premia remain firmly embedded.
ETF
ETF flows continued to show defensive positioning. Bond ETFs recorded net inflows of c.$4.86bn, reflecting demand for yield and duration amid macro uncertainty. In contrast, commodity ETFs saw net outflows of roughly $0.62bn, as investors tactically reduced exposure following oil’s recent rally and rising volatility. The divergence highlights a market environment focused on risk control and selective exposure rather than broad risk‑on positioning.
Gold is likely to remain range‑bound with a neutral‑to‑constructive bias, oil prices should stay headline‑driven with Brent expected in a $100–$115/bbl range, while bond ETFs are likely to continue attracting steady defensive inflows.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Pension Funds Boost Nigerian Equity Exposure by 38.09% to ₦5.46trillion as Market Rally Deepens
Nigeria’s pension fund industry sharply increased exposure to domestic equities in Q1 2026, with allocations to ordinary shares rising 38.09% year‑to‑date to ₦5.46trillion from ₦3.96trillion in December 2025 and surging 112.44% year‑on‑year, driven by strong stock market performance, improved investor confidence, and revised PenCom investment limits. While domestic equities now account for 18.50% of total pension assets, foreign equity exposure declined 6.58% YTD to ₦246.56billion, representing just 0.84% of assets, as PFAs increasingly favoured naira‑denominated growth and inflation‑hedging instruments. Total pension assets stood at ₦29.52trillion as of March 2026, with government securities still dominant at 58.07%, underscoring a gradual but notable shift toward equities supported by rising dividends, banking recapitalisation, and regulatory reforms that could unlock up to ₦1.60trillion in additional equity investment capacity.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦5.56trillion an increase of ₦601.73billion from the previous week’s close, declining on Tuesday by ₦1.67trillion owing to OMO auction settlements, Wednesday witnessed an increase following OMO maturity on Tuesday. Liquidity declined significantly on Friday by ₦1.47trillion to ₦5.67trillion largely due to OMO and NTB Auction settlements. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) declined by 2bps to close at 22.00%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 4bps to 17.46%. The Bonds market yields closed higher this week as the average yield for short-tenor, mid-tenor and long-tenor bonds increased by 20bps, 16bps and 1bps to 16.37%, 16.08% and 15.07% respectively.s
Next week, we expect cautious trading to persist in the Nigerian secondary market as investors continue to assess system liquidity, inflation expectations, and the policy direction of the CBN. While elevated yields should sustain selective demand, intermittent sell pressures may emerge, keeping sentiment guarded and market activity relatively measured.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.71% to close the week at 244,775.83 and ₦157.09trillion respectively compared to 242,277.81 and ₦155.99trillion last week.
A total turnover of 7.08 billion shares worth ₦324.35billion in 474,436 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.84 billion shares valued at ₦287.76billion that exchanged hands last week in 332,453 deals.
On a sectoral basis, most sectors closed positive, with the, Banking Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Insurance indices rising by 1.89%, 1.81%, 5.11% and 4.01% while the Oil and Gas index fell by -3.27%.
Notable gainers this week Cap PLC and Zichis Agro Allied Industries PLC while Guiness Nigeria PLC and Nigerian Aviation Handling Company PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect selective but positive trading to persist, with investor interest focused on fundamentally strong stocks, while profit‑taking and sector rotation drive short‑term volatility amid sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 08/05/2026 | 30/04/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,361.40 | 1,374.94 | -0.99% |
| Parallel | 1,395.00 | 1395.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| CAP | 145.20 | 233.70 | 88.50 | 60.95% |
| ZICHIS | 21.78 | 33.36 | 11.58 | 53.17% |
| FTNCOCOA | 5.50 | 8.30 | 2.80 | 50.91% |
| RTBRISCOE | 10.64 | 15.00 | 4.36 | 40.98% |
| DANGSUGAR | 69.70 | 93.00 | 23.30 | 33.43% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NAHCO | 258.00 | 203.95 | -54.05 | -20.95% |
| GUINNESS | 497.00 | 402.60 | -94.40 | -18.99% |
| ACCESSCORP | 27.00 | 23.60 | -3.40 | -12.59% |
| MTNN | 915.00 | 801.10 | -113.90 | -12.45% |
| UPDC | 4.90 | 4.30 | -0.60 | -12.24% |
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