GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US Dollar index climbed toward 100 as renewed uncertainty over the Iran conflict boosted safe‑haven demand. President Trump offered no clear timeline for ending the war and warned of potential strikes in the coming weeks, pushing oil prices higher and tempering market expectations for further Fed rate cuts. The US trade deficit widened slightly to $57 billion in February, as both exports and imports rose more than 4%. Exports hit a record $315billion, while imports increased to $372billion, driven by computers, vehicles, crude oil, and semiconductors. The largest deficits were with Taiwan, Mexico, Vietnam, and China. Labor market data remained resilient as the unemployment rate edged down to 4.30% in March from 4.40%, though a drop in the labor force pushed participation down to 61.90%.
The UK economy grew by 0.10% QoQ in Q4 2025, unchanged from the previous quarter and consistent with earlier estimates. Growth was driven by a 1.20% rise in the production sector, supported by strong increases in manufacturing and machinery, while construction fell 2% and services stagnated, weighed down by a decline in professional, scientific, and technical activities. On the expenditure side, household consumption, government spending, and gross fixed capital formation posted modest gains. On a year‑on‑year basis, GDP expanded by 1%, marking the slowest growth since Q1 2024. Production rebounded modestly, services grew 1%, and construction was flat. Household spending, government expenditure, and trade flows all softened compared with Q3, although gross fixed capital formation posted a slightly stronger rise. For full-year 2025, the economy grew 1.40%, up from 1.30% previously estimated and higher than the 1.10% recorded in 2024.
Euro area inflation rose to 2.50% in March 2026, up from 1.90% in February and just below expectations, marking the highest rate since early 2025. The increase was driven by a 4.90% rebound in energy prices, linked to Middle East tensions, while price pressures in services, industrial goods, and food continued to ease. Core inflation edged down to 2.30%. Inflation accelerated across major economies including Germany, France, Spain, and the Netherlands, while Italy remained stable at 1.50%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices jumped 1.20%, the strongest rise since October 2022, fueled by a sharp increase in energy costs. Meanwhile, the Euro area unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 6.20% in February from a record low of 6.10% in January.
China’s economy showed a clear rebound in March. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.40 points from 49 points, returning to expansion as output, new orders, and export demand strengthened, though employment stayed weak and prices jumped sharply. The Non‑Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.10 points from 49.50 points, signaling stabilization in services and a mild pickup in construction, despite continued softness in new orders and hiring. Overall, the Composite PMI increased to 50.50 points from 49.50 points, supported by post‑holiday normalization and policy measures, although higher energy costs and geopolitical risks still pose headwinds.
Next week, the conflict with Iran will remain in focus as it enters its sixth week. Traders will continue to assess de-escalation prospects, as well as any concrete developments toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global equity markets posted broad gains midweek, supported by renewed optimism around a potential de‑escalation of the US–Iran conflict. On Tuesday and Wednesday, risk sentiment improved after President Trump signalled that US forces could begin withdrawing from Iran within “two or three weeks,” a comment that fuelled hopes of a near‑term resolution to the Middle East conflict.
However, market momentum softened later in the week as subsequent statements from the administration introduced renewed uncertainty. During a Wednesday night primetime address, President Trump emphasized that the US would continue to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks, offering no definitive end‑date for the conflict. These remarks reversed earlier optimism, causing US equity futures to dip and Asian markets to open lower as investors reassessed geopolitical risks.
Despite this volatility, major indices still closed the week higher compared to the previous week, supported by strong midweek rallies.
In the US, compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 3.95%, 3.36% and 2.96% to 24,045.53, 6,582.69 and 46,504.67, respectively.
European and UK stocks closed higher compared to last week, as the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 4.70%, 3.89% and 3.38% to 10,436.29, 23,168.08 and 7,962.39, respectively.
Asian indices closed slightly higher compared to last week as the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 0.66% and 2.90% to 25,116.53 and 3,645.19, respectively.
Next week, attention will turn to the FOMC minutes, CPI data, and the PCE report. Investors will also look to fresh corporate earnings, as the earnings season gathers momentum mid-month.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Economic Expansion Sustains Momentum as PMI Holds Above Growth Threshold at 53.20
Nigeria’s economy maintained its expansionary trajectory in March 2026, with the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) at 53.20 points, marking the sixteenth consecutive month of growth, according to the CBN. The expansion remained broad-based, as 31 out of 36 subsectors recorded improved business activity, spanning industry, agriculture, and services, despite a slight moderation from February’s 56.40 points. The industry sector led with a PMI of 54.00, supported by stronger output (55.60) and new orders (53.10), while services (52.00) and agriculture (52.80) sustained long-running growth streaks of 14 and 20 months, respectively. Although inflation, FX volatility, and high borrowing costs continue to weigh on firms, the PMI reading underscores continued resilience and steady, albeit slowing, economic recovery.
Private Sector Credit Inches Up to ₦75.62trillion as Government Borrowing Intensifies
Nigeria’s private sector credit rose marginally to ₦75.62trillion in February 2026, from ₦75.24trillion in January, according to the CBN, signaling a mild recovery in bank lending amid tight financial conditions. However, credit remains below the ₦76.26trillion recorded in February 2025 and well off its April 2025 peak of ₦78.07trillion, underscoring persistent pressure over the past year despite a rebound from the September 2025 low of ₦72.53trillion. Meanwhile, total net domestic credit expanded to ₦111.40trillion (January: ₦109.43trillion), driven largely by a sharp rise in government borrowing to ₦35.77trillion from ₦34.19trillion, heightening concerns over crowding out of private businesses.
Nigeria’s Money Supply Slips Marginally to ₦123.15trillion Despite Strong Annual Liquidity Growth
Nigeria’s broad money supply (M3) eased slightly to ₦123.15trillion in February 2026, down from ₦123.36trillion in January, according to the CBN, reflecting mild short-term liquidity tightening amid ongoing monetary adjustment. Despite the month-on-month dip, money supply remained well above ₦110.71trillion recorded in February 2025, signalling strong year-on-year liquidity expansion. The decline was driven by reduced net foreign assets, which fell to ₦28.41trillion from ₦29.61trillion, while net domestic assets rose to ₦94.74trillion from ₦93.76trillion, underscoring a shift toward domestically driven liquidity. Narrow money (M2) also edged down to ₦123.14trillion.
Nigeria Retains Strong Hydrocarbon Base as Oil Reserves Hit 37.01billion Barrels, Gas Climbs to 215.19 trillion cubic feet
Nigeria’s total petroleum reserves stood at 37.01billion barrels of crude oil and condensate and 215.19 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of natural gas as of January 1, 2026, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), underscoring sustained upstream capacity despite energy transition pressures. Crude oil reserves accounted for 31.09 billion barrels, while condensates stood at 5.92 billion barrels, as gas reserves rose 2.21% year-on-year, driven by new discoveries and improved reservoir evaluations. Associated gas reached 100.21 TCF, while non-associated gas stood at 114.98 TCF, giving gas a Reserve Life Index of 85.00 years, compared with 59.00 years for oil. Although oil and condensate reserves declined marginally by 0.74% due to production and field reassessments, the growth in gas reserves supports Nigeria’s Decade of Gas strategy and recent initiatives to commercialize over 55.00 TCF of unutilized gas, positioning gas as a key transition fuel and long-term growth driver.
Tinubu Seeks Senate Approval to Expand 2026 Budget by ₦9trillion to ₦67.40trillion
President Bola Tinubu has asked the Senate to approve a ₦9trillion increase in the 2026 Appropriation Bill, lifting the total budget size from ₦58.40trillion to ₦67.40trillion, citing the need to regularize legacy obligations, consolidate government indebtedness, and fund select priority projects. While the request aims to improve fiscal transparency and align financing with revised spending, it raises concerns over sustainability, as the original budget already carries a ₦23.85trillion deficit, with revenue estimated at ₦34.33trillion against expenditure of ₦58.18trillion, including ₦15.52trillion for debt servicing. The proposal, now before the Senate Committee on Appropriation, adds pressure to an already debt-heavy fiscal framework amid weak oil output of about 1.50 mbpd, increasing reliance on borrowing and non-oil revenues to finance government spending.
War-Driven Oil Shock to Fuel Steep Cost‑of‑Living Pressures in Nigeria Through 2026
Economic experts warn that Nigeria faces sustained consumer price inflation in 2026 as the escalating US–Israel–Iran conflict pushes global crude oil prices above $100.00 per barrel, sharply raising domestic fuel and production costs. Petrol prices have surged from below ₦900 per litre to over ₦1,350.00, while diesel climbed from about ₦1,340.00 to above ₦1,750.00, driving up manufacturing, transportation, and food distribution expenses. SMEs and traders report steep increases in staple food prices, with tomatoes rising to ₦35,000.00 per basket from ₦9,000.00–₦10,000.00, onions tripling to ₦45,000.00, and farm produce logistics sometimes doubling or tripling in cost. Experts estimate the impact could deepen poverty for Nigeria’s 139 million poor, while fuel demand has collapsed, with filling stations selling as little as 300–1,000 litres daily versus 10,000.00 litres previously. With government maintaining market-based pricing and global oil markets remaining volatile as inflationary pressures and reduced consumer purchasing power are likely to persist for much of the year.
Next week, Investors will watch out for key economic release and signals from CBN on policy stands to guide sentiments.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market recorded a mild rally, underpinned by improved demand across the curve. Bargain hunting and selective risk re‑engagement by offshore investors supported key Nigerian maturities, driving modest yield compression. Consequently, average Eurobond yields eased by 2bps week‑on‑week to 7.45%, reflecting firmer investor sentiment and a gradual rebuilding of appetite for Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated debt.
Next week, we expect sentiment to remain cautiously constructive, though upside will likely be capped by global risk factors and evolving geopolitical developments.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold remained under pressure last week, extending its corrective phase despite brief rebound attempts as macro headwinds dominated sentiment. Spot gold slid to around $4,677.28/oz by mid‑week, down 2.26% day‑on‑day, weighed down by elevated US Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and intensifying inflation concerns driven by surging energy prices. Over the past month, gold is down 8.09%, although it remains 50.26% higher year‑on‑year, reflecting the earlier flight‑to‑safety premium that has since faded. With markets increasingly pricing a higher‑for‑longer rate environment and risk appetite rotating away from non‑yielding assets, gold sentiment remains fragile, with volatility still elevated.
OIL
Oil markets stayed highly volatile last week, with geopolitical risk firmly in the driver’s seat. Brent crude surged to about $109.03 per barrel (bbl), up 7.78% on the day and 33.94% over the past month, as the ongoing disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, continued to tighten supply expectations. WTI crude rallied even more sharply, rising to $111.54/bbl, gaining 11.41% in the latest session and 49.60% month‑on‑month, as markets priced in prolonged conflict risk and limited near‑term supply relief.
ETF
Bond ETFs continued to attract strong inflows, underscoring a defensive tilt in global portfolios. Investment Company Institute (ICI) data shows that bond ETFs recorded net inflows of $10.96billion in the week ended March 25, 2026, as investors sought yield stability amid rising geopolitical and inflation risks. Meanwhile, commodity ETFs posted net outflows of $2.45 billion, reflecting profit‑taking and reduced exposure following sharp oil price rallies and continued weakness in precious metals. The divergence highlights a shift toward income‑oriented, lower‑volatility instruments as global risk pricing remains elevated.
Gold is likely to remain volatile with a downside bias as US yields and the dollar stay firm, oil prices should remain headline‑driven, with Brent trading around $105–$115 and WTI near $100–$112., while bond ETFs are expected to continue seeing inflows as commodity‑linked products face ongoing pressure from heightened volatility and risk repricing.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
NGX Extends Bull Run as Market Hits 200,000 Points, Delivers 29.35% Q1 Return
The Nigerian Exchange closed March 2026 firmly in positive territory, rising 4.39% to a record 201,287.80 points, its first-ever close above the 200,000 mark, and lifting total market capitalization to ₦129.20trillion. This performance extended the market’s winning streak to four consecutive months, bringing the Q1 2026 return to 29.35%, the third-best first-quarter performance in NGX history, with over 52 billion shares traded. Gains were driven largely by the Industrial Goods sector, up 19.98%, led by BUA Cement (+49.18%) and Lafarge Africa (+9.95%), while Oil and Gas advanced 7.99%. The rally persisted despite slower trading activity and declines in Insurance (-9.45%), Banking (-1.66%), and Consumer Goods (-0.24%), underscoring strong large-cap support and sustained investor confidence.
Strong Demand Greets FGN Bond Auction as Subscriptions Hit ₦931.51billion
The FGN bond auction held on March 30, 2026, recorded robust investor interest, with total subscriptions of ₦931.51billion against an offer size of ₦750billion, translating to a bid-to-offer ratio of 1.24x, reflecting strong appetite, particularly for long-dated securities. The APR 2027 bond attracted ₦251.43billion in bids on a ₦250billion offer, with ₦88.79billion allotted at a 16.00% stop rate, while the FEB 2032 bond saw subscriptions of ₦217.87billion, with ₦63.99billion allotted at 16.15%. Demand was strongest for the MAY 2033 bond, which garnered ₦462.21billion in bids against a ₦300billion offer, leading to an increased allotment of ₦332.70billion at a higher stop rate of 16.64%, underscoring investors’ preference to lock in yields amid prevailing liquidity conditions.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦7.25trillion a decline of ₦267.26billion driven by the net CRR maintenance, declining to ₦5.71trillion on Tuesday owing to OMO auction settlement. Liquidity declined on Thursday to ₦5.41trillion owing to Bond auction settlement. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00% while the Overnight Rate increased by 5bps at 22.31%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 3bps to 17.56%, while the Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for the short-tenor bonds remained unchanged at 16.03% while the average yields for mid-tenor bonds increased by 7bps to 16.01% and the average yields for the long-tenor bonds decreased by 2bps to 15.06% respectively.
Next week, attention will shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Primary market where the DMO is ₦700billion across the 91-, 182-and 364-day bills against ₦356.47billion maturing.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.39% and 0.65%to close the week at 201,698.89 and ₦129.81trillion respectively compared to 200,913.06 and ₦128.97trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.86 billion shares worth ₦113.60billion in 215,287 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.95 billion shares valued at ₦201.31billion that exchanged hands last week in 359,642 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, and Oil and Gas indices rose by 0.71% and 0.02% while the Consumer Goods, Insurance and Industrial Goods indices fell by -1.74%, -4.25% and -0.24% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Multiverse Mining and Exploration Plc and UPDC Real Estate Investment Plc while John Holt Plc and Secure Electronic Technology Plc topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect mild trading activities as cautiousness persists with investors cherry-picking stocks with strong fundamentals.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 02/04/2026 | 27/03/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,380.79 | 1,380.58 | 0.02% |
| Parallel | 1,415.00 | 1,415.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MULTIVERSE | 16.70 | 20.15 | 3.45 | 20.66% |
| UPDCREIT | 7.10 | 8.20 | 1.10 | 15.49% |
| INTENEGINS | 2.95 | 3.32 | 0.37 | 12.54% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 4.01 | 4.43 | 0.42 | 10.47% |
| UNILEVER | 94.00 | 103.40 | 9.40 | 10.00% |
TOP LOSERS TICKER
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| NSLTECH | 1.30 | 1.02 | -0.28 | -21.54% |
| JOHNHOLT | 18.95 | 15.45 | -3.50 | -18.47% |
| MAYBAKER | 41.95 | 35.00 | -6.95 | -16.57% |
| ALEX | 12.60 | 10.55 | -2.05 | -16.27% |
| LEGENDINT | 7.50 | 6.30 | -1.20 | -16.00% |
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