GLOBAL ECONOMY
US macro conditions weakened amid rising inflation, persistent fiscal pressures, and mixed growth. The budget deficit widened to $164.10billion as 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) spending growth outpaced revenues. Headline inflation rose to 0.90% month-on-month (m-o-m) and 3.30% y-o-y, driven by energy (+12.50% y-o-y), while core inflation remained at 2.60% y-o-y. However, rising inflation expectations signal persistence risks. Activity was uneven, with flat manufacturing orders indicating slowing momentum.
The UK Pound strengthened to above $1.34/£1, its highest since February, supported by relative UK rate expectations rather than growth, as persistently high oil prices linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted near‑term inflation risks and led markets to price in at least one Bank of England rate hike by end‑2026. UK Composite PMI fell to 50.30 in March, its weakest in six months, as services stalled, manufacturing contracted, and input cost inflation jumped to its highest since early 2023, squeezing margins and confidence.
Euro Area conditions remain fragile, with weak demand offset by volatile, energy-driven inflation risks complicating ECB policy. The Euro rose above $1.17/€1, supported by rate differentials and geopolitical optimism, while yields increased on renewed inflation concerns. Markets now expect a more hawkish ECB, with at least two rate hikes by end 2026. Growth softened, with retail sales down 0.20% m-o-m and 1.70% y-o-y, as activity signaled stagnation, as the Composite PMI held at 50.70 and construction remained in contraction at 44.60. Producer prices fell 0.70% m-o-m and 3% y-o-y, reflecting earlier energy declines, but recent oil and gas volatility poses upside inflation risks.
The Yuan hovered around ¥6.83/$1, while the People Bank of China (PBoC) maintained a cautious easing stance and fuel price controls to manage inflation. China’s CPI slowed to 1% y-o-y (0.70% m-o-m) in March as food inflation eased and housing remained in deflation, with core inflation at 1.1%, highlighting weak demand. Producer prices rose 0.52% y-o-y for the first time since 2022, driven by higher energy and commodity costs, signaling emerging cost pressures. Activity was mixed as vehicle sales fell 5.61% y-o-y in Q1, though exports and monthly sales rebounded, showing reliance on external demand.
Next week, Markets will focus on fragile Middle East ceasefire talks and energy risks, alongside US PPI data, euro area trade and industrial output.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global equity markets recorded strong weekly gains, driven primarily by a sharp midweek relief rally following the announcement of a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire, which raised expectations of reduced energy supply disruption and lower geopolitical risk premiums. Risk appetite surged after the agreement included a temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a steep drop in oil prices and easing near‑term inflation concerns, although sentiment remained cautious given the ceasefire’s fragility and ongoing tensions involving Israel and Lebanon. Despite some late‑week volatility as markets reassessed the durability of the truce, major indices closed higher week‑on‑week.
In the US, compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 4.12%, 3.10% and 2.67% to 22,902.89, 6,816.89 and 47,916.57, respectively.
European and UK stocks closed higher compared to last week, as the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 2.43%, 3.85% and 4.44% to 10,600.53, 23,803.95 and 8,259.6, respectively supported by falling energy prices and improved risk sentiment.
Asian indices closed slightly higher compared to last week as the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 0.01% and 2.61% to 25,893.54 and 3,739.85, respectively, reflecting lingering uncertainty around geopolitical follow‑through.
Next week, markets will focus on US PPI data for signs of energy cost pass‑through.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
World Bank says Nigeria’s 2026 Economic Growth Intact Despite Iran War
The World Bank confirmed Nigeria’s economy is holding up despite the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, with business activity continuing to expand and growth remaining relatively contained. Inflation has fallen to 15.06% in February 2026 from 33% in December 2024, the fiscal deficit stands at 3.10% of GDP, and the debt-to-GDP ratio declined for the first time in a decade. The Bank projects 4.40% growth for 2026 but warned that fuel prices might move up over 50% due to the war risk eroding reform gains for ordinary Nigerians.
Nigeria’s Company Income Tax Collections Drop 49.8% in Q4 2025
Nigeria’s Company Income Tax (CIT) collections suffered a steep quarterly drop to close out 2025, though the longer-term picture tells a more encouraging story. Company Income Tax collections plunged 49.81% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, falling from ₦2.96trillion to ₦1.49trillion, driven by seasonal adjustments and macroeconomic pressures. Domestic CIT contributed ₦819.83billion against foreign CIT of ₦668.21billion. Accommodation and food services (-67.11%) and mining (-49.63%) were the hardest hit sectors. Despite the quarterly slump, CIT rose 13.38% year-on-year, and full-year 2025 collections totalled ₦9.218trillion, pointing to underlying resilience in Nigeria’s corporate tax base.
Nigeria’s Poverty Rate Hits 63% in 2025 Despite Inflation Slowdown – World Bank
Nigeria’s poverty rate climbed to 63% in 2025 up from 56% in 2023, leaving roughly 140million people below the poverty line, even as headline inflation fell sharply from 34.80% to 15.10% over the year. The World Bank’s April 2026 Nigeria Development Update attributed the paradox to household incomes failing to keep pace with cumulative inflation damage, a lagging agricultural sector where most of the poor work, and the added pressure of the Middle East conflict on energy and food costs. Poverty is projected to ease gradually to 59% by 2028, but only if growth becomes more inclusive and job rich.
Tinubu Directs Economic Team to Cushion Middle East Crisis Impact on Nigerians
President Bola Tinubu has ordered the Ministries of Finance and Budget and Economic Planning to develop measures to ease the economic hardship Nigerians are facing due to the ongoing US-Israel-Iran war. The President acknowledged that fuel prices are biting hard and pledged that his administration will work with relevant ministries to find relief for the vulnerable. He noted that his government is coordinating with the Ministry of Finance to find relief, while pointing out that despite the hardship, Nigeria remains comparatively better off than some other African countries currently enduring worse conditions. The directive comes as the Middle East conflict now in its sixth week has driven global oil prices above $100 per barrel, pushing petrol prices in Nigeria from under ₦900 to over ₦1,350 per litre and sending food prices surging across markets nationwide.
Minister of State for Finance, Taiwo Oyedele admits errors in tax laws, proposes finance bill
Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, Taiwo Oyedele, has publicly acknowledged that the country’s new tax reform laws contain errors arising from manual drafting and multiple legislative review stages. Speaking at the 2026 Nigerian Bar Association conference, he confirmed that a Finance Bill is being prepared to correct the discrepancies which were first flagged in December 2025 by a lawmaker who alleged that gazetted versions of the laws differed from what the National Assembly passed. Oyedele assured that tax enforcement will remain fair and predictable, that low-income earners and small businesses will be protected, and that loss-making firms will no longer face minimum tax obligations. He stressed that policy consistency is critical to maintaining Investor confidence.
Next week, attention will turn to the release of March inflation data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), which will help assess any potential spillover effects of the US–Iran conflict on domestic price dynamics.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Sovereign Eurobonds traded on a mixed but stable note as elevated geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict was balanced by sustained strength in crude oil prices. Investor sentiment was cautious early in the week, before selective bargain hunting emerged, particularly in mid‑curve maturities, supported by improved fiscal expectations for oil‑exporting sovereigns. Firm oil prices and Nigeria’s still-strengthened external position helped limit the broader Emerging Market (EM) sell‑off.
Next week, we expect Nigerian Eurobonds to trade sideways, with oil‑price support offsetting persistent global risk aversion.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold experienced heightened volatility but remained well supported during the week, reflecting a tug‑of‑war between risk‑on sentiment and persistent geopolitical hedging demand. Early in the week, Gold softened as markets briefly priced in a potential US–Iran ceasefire and a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which reduced immediate inflation tail risks. However, following the formal announcement of a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire on April 8, gold rebounded sharply, rising roughly 2–3% intraday, as Investors questioned the durability of the truce and continued to seek protection amid ongoing strikes in Lebanon and uncertainty over shipping normalization.
OIL
Oil was the dominant macro driver of the week, swinging violently on geopolitical headlines. At the start of the period, Brent and WTI crude traded above $110/barrel, reflecting severe supply tightness as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely blocked and tensions escalated. On April 8, prices collapsed 10–15% intraday, with Brent briefly falling below $100 per barrel, after the US and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire that included a conditional reopening of the Strait. Despite the sharp sell‑off, Oil found a floor later in the week, as physical flows through Hormuz remained well below normal, infrastructure damage lingered, and fighting outside the truce framework (notably in Lebanon) reignited risk premiums, leaving Brent still elevated relative to pre‑war levels.
ETF
ETF flows reflected a clear but cautious rotation. Following the ceasefire announcement, global equity ETFs registered strong inflows, benefiting from relief rallies and lower energy‑driven inflation fears, particularly in the US, Europe, and parts of Asia. Conversely, Energy‑focused ETFs experienced sharp outflows alongside oil’s collapse, as Investors unwound conflict‑premium positioning. At the same time, Gold ETFs remained resilient, with evidence of dip‑buying and tactical inflows later in the week, underscoring that Investors continued to hedge against the fragility of the ceasefire and the risk of renewed supply disruptions.
Gold should remain firm, supported by lingering geopolitical risk and ongoing hedge demand. Oil is likely to stay volatile with slight downside pressure as ceasefire progress offsets still‑uneven supply flows while ETF flows should continue favoring equities.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
System liquidity remained surplus during the week, opening the week at a credit of approximately ₦4.05trillion, and tightened mid‑week following OMO and NTB auction settlements, but remained firmly in positive territory throughout the period. Consequently, the Open Repo Rate (OPR) was stable at 22%, while the Overnight Rate closed unchanged around 22.32%.
Next week, we expect borrowing rates to remain stable next week on surplus liquidity, while fixed‑income yields should trade range‑bound amid selective demand.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.03% and 1.05% to close the week at 203,770.43 and ₦131.17trillion respectively compared to 201,698.89 and ₦129.81trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.36 billion shares worth ₦151.95billion in 229,442 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.86 billion shares valued at ₦113.59billion that exchanged hands last week in 215,287 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Oil and Gas indices rose by 5.10%, 0.80%, 1.10% and 2.67% respectively while the Insurance index fell by -3.64.
Notable gainers this week were Trans-Nationwide Express Plc. and Nigerian Exchange Group While Daar Communications Plc and R T Briscoe Plc. topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the market to trade cautiously, with selective buying in fundamentally strong stocks.
| CURRENCY |
| (₦/$) | 10/04/2026 | 02/04/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,356.89 | 1,380.79 | -1.73% |
| Parallel | 1,395.00 | 1,415.00 | -1.41% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| TRANSEXPR | 2.84 | 3.77 | 0.93 | 32.75% |
| NGXGROUP | 165.00 | 188.00 | 23.00 | 13.94% |
| GTCO | 122.00 | 135.00 | 13.00 | 10.66% |
| NASCON | 147.00 | 161.00 | 14.00 | 9.53% |
| GUINESS | 423.00 | 462.00 | 39.70 | 9.38% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| DAARCOMM | 1.91 | 1.50 | -0.41 | -21.47% |
| RTBRISCOE | 10.50 | 8.40 | -2.10 | -20.00% |
| DEAPCAP | 6.01 | 5.00 | -1.01 | -16.81% |
| ELLAHLAKES | 12.00 | 10.00 | -2.00 | -16.67% |
| JAPAULGOLD | 3.50 | 2.93 | -0.57 | -16.29% |
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