GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 57,000, well below expectations of 110,000, while private-sector hiring slowed to 98,000, indicating moderating job creation despite labour-market resilience reflected in higher job openings as the unemployment rate fell to 4.20% from 4.30%. Manufacturing activity stayed in expansion but lost momentum, with the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI revised down to 53.90, as firms cited elevated costs, Middle East tensions and trade-policy uncertainty. Construction spending edged up 0.10% in May, factory orders fell 1.30% following April’s surge, and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Central Bank’s commitment to restoring inflation to its 2.00% target while emphasizing policy independence and a data-dependent approach.
The Pound Sterling strengthened to around £1/$1.34, its highest level in two weeks, posting a 1% weekly gain as weaker-than-expected US employment data weighed on the Dollar. The UK gross domestic product (GDP) growth accelerated to 0.60% quarter-on-quarter, the strongest pace since Q1 2025, driven primarily by a 0.80% increase in services activity, while annual growth was confirmed at 0.90%. The current account deficit narrowed to £22.10billion (2.80% of GDP) from £27.20billion, supported by a sharp reduction in the primary income deficit. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that inflation remains on course toward the 2.00% target, albeit more gradually than previously expected. Net consumer borrowing eased slightly to £1.66billion from £1.71billion. The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI registered 52.50, indicating sustained growth in production and exports despite supply-chain disruptions, rising input costs and geopolitical uncertainty. Employment in manufacturing increased modestly, while firms reported strong demand from the US, China and the European Union.
The Euro traded around €1/$1.14, supported by broad US Dollar weakness after a disappointing US employment report, Eurozone Inflation cools, Headline inflation slowed to 2.80% from 3.20% in May, while core inflation eased to 2.40%, both below expectations, driven by moderating energy, services and food prices following lower oil prices linked to the US-Iran peace process. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde noted that risks to inflation and growth have diminished, tempering expectations for additional rate hikes. Credit conditions strengthened further, as household lending expanded 3.10% year-on-year to €7.21trillion, business lending accelerated 4.00%, and overall private-sector credit growth reached 3.90%, the strongest pace since March 2023. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI expanded to 51.40, marking a fifth consecutive month of expansion, while the Composite PMI improved to 50.00, indicating stabilization in overall private-sector activity. However, the services sector remained in mild contraction, with the Services PMI at 49.40. Labour market conditions remained resilient, with unemployment holding at a record-low 6.20% and the number of unemployed falling by 55,000 to 10.99 million.
The NBS Composite PMI Output Index edged up to 50.60 from 50.50, marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion and the strongest reading since December. Manufacturing activity strengthened, with the official Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.30 from 50.00, driven by stronger output, a return to growth in new orders and expanding export demand, particularly from high-tech industries benefiting from the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom. Private Manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansion territory at 51.70. The Services PMI eased slightly to 54.10 from 54.40 but remained well above expectations, reflecting strong domestic demand and the third-fastest expansion in nearly three years, with export orders and employment both improving. To reinforce growth, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) injected ¥157.50billion through seven-day reverse repos while maintaining its key policy rate at a record-low 1.40%, alongside the introduction of ¥300billion in overnight reverse repo operations to support liquidity and interbank market stability.
Next week, markets will focus on Central Bank signals and key economic data as easing Middle East tensions and improved tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz reduce pressure on energy markets. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes and key economic data.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities closed positive, as weaker-than-expected jobs data saw easing concerns over rate hikes amid strengthening traditional sectors. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 1.97%, 2.12% and 1.76% to 52,900.07, 25,832.67 and 7,483.24 respectively.
European markets saw a rise, with major stock indices reaching record highs on the backdrop of improving macroeconomic data and a bounce back from companies with exposure to the speculative AI trade. The European market was also influenced by the Riise in Asian Market from China’s PMI data and the weaker-than-expected jobs data from US. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC40 indices increased by 1.63%, 4.49% and 1.47% to 10,679.03, 25,779.31 and 8,508.07 respectively.
Asian markets ended the week higher compared to last week, owing to a bounce back in technology stocks with renewed investors’ confidence in Artificial Intelligence and the data for Private PMI easing to 54.10 points still holding above the anticipated 53 point. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 2.99% and 2.55% to 23,350.03 and 4,064.6, respectively.
Next week, global markets will focus on major central bank signals, key economic data releases, and OPEC’s production meeting, with investors watching for fresh clues on global growth, inflation, interest rates, and the outlook for energy markets as oil prices stabilize following improved tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Business Confidence Holds at 104.60 Points Despite Rising Costs as Services Sector Contracts, Economic Outlook Improves to 128.40 Points
Nigeria’s business environment remained in expansion in June 2026, with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) Current Business Performance Index holding steady at 104.60 points, although below 113.60 points recorded in June 2025, reflecting slower growth amid high operating costs, limited access to credit, electricity shortages and insecurity. Manufacturing (106.40 points), Agriculture (103.90 points), Non-manufacturing (106.80 points) and Trade (102.00 points) remained in expansion territory, while the Services sector contracted at 98.50 points. Agriculture rebounded from 97.50 points in May on improved harvests and rainfall, while Manufacturing weakened from 114.10 points. Despite continued pressure on investment, exports and employment, business optimism strengthened, with the Future Business Expectation Index rising to 128.40 points from 127.00 points in May, supported by easing Middle East tensions and lower crude oil prices, which averaged $87.70 per barrel in June versus $112.00 per barrel in May. The positive outlook comes as Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.89% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, while the Trade sector contributed 17.89% to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Nigeria’s Consumer Credit Falls by ₦780billion as High Lending Rates Hit Borrowing, Retail Loans Plunge 41.85%
Nigeria’s outstanding consumer credit declined by ₦780billion, or 20.48%, to ₦3.03trillion in February 2026 from ₦3.81trillion in January, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as elevated borrowing costs and tighter lending conditions weakened household appetite for loans. Retail lending recorded the sharpest decline, plunging 41.85%, while personal loans, which accounted for 64.58% of total consumer credit at approximately ₦1.96trillion, edged down 0.40%; retail loans represented the remaining 35.42% or about ₦1.07trillion. The contraction suggests loan repayments outpaced new credit issuance despite improved financial system liquidity, with average banking sector liquidity rising 23.69% to ₦3.08trillion. Borrowing costs remained a major constraint as the average maximum lending rate climbed to 35.17% from 32.68%, while the average prime lending rate eased marginally to 19.29% from 19.54%. The decline in household borrowing contrasted with broader credit expansion, as total credit to the economy increased 0.82% to ₦57.88trillion, driven by stronger lending to agriculture, industry and services, highlighting continued resilience in productive-sector financing despite weaker consumer demand.
Nigeria’s Trade Deficit with United States Widens to ₦1.63trillion as Imports Surge 97.33%, Exports Fall 23.69%
Nigeria recorded a trade deficit of approximately ₦1.63trillion with the United States in the first quarter of 2026 as imports from the country surged 97.33% year-on-year to ₦2.81trillion from ₦1.42trillion, while exports declined 23.69% to ₦1.18trillion from ₦1.54trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The deterioration marks a sharp reversal from the ₦122billion trade surplus recorded in the corresponding period of 2025, with import growth outpacing export earnings by a wide margin. The United States became Nigeria’s second-largest import source, accounting for 20.60% of total imports behind China’s 37.42% share, despite Nigeria’s overall imports declining 18.17% to ₦13.62trillion during the quarter. Although exports to the United States rebounded 31.60% from ₦895.06billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, the recovery was insufficient to offset annual losses, leaving the country as Nigeria’s fifth-largest export destination with a 5.56% share of total exports. Total bilateral trade reached ₦3.98trillion, highlighting the strength of commercial ties even as a wider trade imbalance emerged amid changing global trade dynamics and higher United States tariffs on selected Nigerian exports.
Nigeria Commissions Largest Lithium Processing Plant with 6,000-Tonne Daily Capacity as Mining Reforms Target $2.60billion Investments
Nigeria has commissioned its largest lithium processing plant to date in Nasarawa State, with a processing capacity of 6,000.00 metric tonnes per day and 3.00 million metric tonnes annually, marking a major step in the country’s push to move from raw mineral exports to value-added processing. The facility, owned by Diamond New Energy Company Ltd., was inaugurated by Vice President Kashim Shettima on behalf of President Bola Tinubu, who said the project supports industrialisation, economic diversification and local beneficiation of mineral resources. The Federal Government said ongoing mining reforms are expected to unlock about $2.60billion in mineral processing investments, including an $800million lithium project, a $600million lithium facility in Nasarawa, a $200million lithium plant near Abuja and a $1billion iron ore-to-steel project in Kogi State. The development comes as global lithium demand is projected by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) to surge by 353% between 2024 and 2040, driven by rising adoption of electric vehicles, battery storage systems and renewable energy infrastructure, positioning Nigeria to capture greater value from its vast lithium reserves and strengthen its role in the global critical minerals supply chain.
Nigeria’s Private Sector Expands for Fifth Straight Month as Business Confidence Hits One-Year High, GDP Growth Seen at 3.94%
Nigeria’s private sector-maintained growth in June 2026, recording its fifth consecutive month of expansion as stronger customer demand and new product offerings boosted business activity, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Although the PMI eased to 53.40 from 54.10 in May, it remained above the 50.00 expansion threshold, signalling continued improvement in business conditions. Output, new orders, employment, purchasing activity and inventories all increased, while firms expanded staffing levels for the 13th consecutive month amid rising workloads. Business confidence climbed to its highest level since June 2025, supported by expansion plans and stronger inventory positions. There are projections of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.94% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, above the 3.89% recorded in the first quarter, while retaining its full-year growth forecast of 4.10%. Despite persistent pressures from higher fuel, transportation and raw material costs, purchase price inflation slowed to a four-month low, reinforcing expectations that non-oil sectors will continue driving economic growth through 2026.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor the release of the June 2026 PMI data for insights into the health of Nigeria’s private sector, particularly the performance of the manufacturing sector and overall business activity.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market ended the week on a bullish note, supported by renewed investor demand across the yield curve as market participants increased exposure to Nigeria’s dollar-denominated sovereign debt instruments. The positive sentiment drove the average Eurobond yield lower by 5 basis points to 7.03%, reflecting stronger demand and improved confidence in the country’s external debt profile. Investor appetite was further supported by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a favourable outlook for Nigeria’s sovereign credit quality, although global risk sentiment and movements in United States Treasury yields continued to influence trading activity.
Next week, the Nigerian Eurobond market is expected to remain broadly positive, supported by sustained demand for Nigeria’s dollar-denominated debt securities. However, market performance will continue to be influenced by global interest rate expectations, United States Treasury yield movements, and broader international market developments.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold rebounded during the week reversing a four-week losing streak as weaker-than-expected United States labour market data reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes and weakened the United States dollar. Spot gold climbed to approximately $4,170.00/oz, recording a weekly gain of about 2%, supported by renewed safe-haven demand and increased central bank purchases. However, prices remain down about 6.81% month-on-month, reflecting the broader correction that followed the easing of Middle East geopolitical tensions.
OIL
Oil prices stabilised during the week after the sharp sell-off witnessed in late June, as markets balanced recovering Middle East crude exports against improving sentiment surrounding United States-Iran diplomatic negotiations. Brent crude closed around $72.12/bbl, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $68.76/bbl.
ETF
Major Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded mixed performance during the week. Equity-focused funds remained broadly supported by improving risk appetite and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve policy stance, while commodity ETFs benefited from gold’s recovery. Meanwhile, energy-related ETFs remained under pressure amid lower crude oil prices and expectations of improving global supply conditions.
Gold performance will likely be driven by expectations surrounding United States monetary policy, labour market conditions and inflation data, while oil prices will remain sensitive to developments in United States-Iran negotiations, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) supply dynamics and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz. ETF flows are expected to remain focused on equities and fixed-income assets as investors assess economic data and global interest rate expectations.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Foreign Investor Activity Drops to 9.45% of Nigerian Exchange Trades as Net Outflows Hit ₦173.26billion Year-to-Date Despite Record ₦1.94trillion Market Turnover
Foreign investor participation in the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) fell to a 2026 low of 9.45% in May as foreign transactions declined 25.90% month-on-month to ₦183.61billion from ₦247.78billion in April, despite total market turnover rising 7.79% to a record ₦1.94trillion. Foreign outflows of ₦96.01billion exceeded inflows of ₦87.60billion, resulting in a net outflow of ₦8.41billion for the month, while cumulative net foreign outflows reached ₦173.26billion year-to-date, reflecting ₦573.32billion in outflows against ₦400.06billion in inflows. Domestic investors accounted for 90.55% of total transactions at ₦1.76trillion, with institutional trades rising 18.59% to ₦1.03trillion despite net selling of ₦93.01billion, while retail investors remained net buyers with inflows of ₦40.41billion. Total market transactions have surged 131.30% year-to-date to ₦7.90trillion from ₦3.41trillion in the corresponding 2025 period, but foreign participation has weakened to 12.33% from 29.17% a year earlier, highlighting growing reliance on domestic capital amid foreign investor caution linked to settlement reforms, pre-election uncertainties and global portfolio rebalancing.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at ₦4.80trillion, Tuesday saw a decline of ₦110.87billion to ₦4.69trillion, Wednesday equally saw a decline of ₦137.84billion to ₦4.55trillion, Thursday decline of ₦1.04trillion to ₦3.52trillion owing to Tax Payments to the Government with the same following on Friday, with a decline of ₦648.14billion to ₦2.87trillion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%, while the Overnight (O/N) rate declined up by 5bps to 21.18% from 22.23%.
Activity in the secondary Treasury bills market remained bearish throughout the week, as the average yield increased week-on-week by 21bps to 18.46%. The Bonds market followed the bearish pattern with the average yields for the short, mid and Long tenor bonds increasing by 34bps, 67bps and 54bps to close at 17.51%, 17.75% and 16.55%.
Next week, attention would turn to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Primary Market where the DMO is offering a total of ₦700billion across tenors.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market extended its bearish momentum as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 1.21% to close at 229,240.34 and ₦147.10trillion respectively compared to 232,049.02 and ₦148.91trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.82 billion shares worth ₦154.39billion in 258,567 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.32 billion shares valued at ₦134.49billion that exchanged hands last week in 249,328 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed negative, as the Banking, Oil and Gas, Insurance, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices fell by 3.72%, 4.34%, 2.52%, 1.60% and 4.93% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Airtel Africa PLC and Regency Assurance PLC while McNichols PLC and International Energy Insurance PLC topped the losers list.
The Nigerian equities market is expected to remain mildly bearish next week as profit-taking persists amid attractive fixed-income yields. Market sentiment is likely to remain cautious, with performance driven by earnings expectations and macroeconomic developments.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 03/07/2026 | 26/06/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,370.19 | 1,380.93 | -0.78% |
| Parallel | 1,395.00 | 1,395.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| AIRTELAFRI | 4,358.80 | 5,274.00 | 915.20 | 21.00% |
| REGALINS | 0.79 | 0.95 | 0.16 | 20.25% |
| UPDC | 3.25 | 3.65 | 0.40 | 12.31% |
| DAARCOMM | 1.53 | 1.65 | 0.12 | 7.84% |
| SUNUASSUR | 3.60 | 3.87 | 0.27 | 7.50% |
TOG LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTENEGINS | 5.79 | 4.70 | -1.09 | -18.83% |
| MCNICHOLS | 8.60 | 7.00 | -1.60 | -18.60% |
| UPL | 5.70 | 4.70 | -1.00 | -17.54% |
| RTBRISCOE | 11.80 | 10.15 | -1.65 | -13.98% |
| UPDCREIT | 10.00 | 8.70 | -1.30 | -13.00% |
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