GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 51.90 from 51.50, supported by stronger manufacturing output and a services PMI of 51.20, its fastest expansion pace since before the Middle East energy shock, driven partly by FIFA World Cup-related tourism. However, labour market momentum softened data showed private payroll additions slowing to 98,000 in June, while average weekly job gains eased to 21,000, and employment contracted despite initial jobless claims remaining low at 215,000. US trade deficit widened to $77.60billion in May from $54.60billion, the largest since March 2025, as imports surged 3.30% to $395.30billion while exports fell 3.20% to $317.70billion, suggesting a larger drag from net exports on Q2 GDP. Inflation concerns strengthened as one-year consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.70%, while Fed minutes revealed policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation risks stemming from tariffs, artificial intelligence-driven demand and the Middle East conflict, with markets pricing roughly a 50% chance of a September rate hike.
The Pound Sterling strengthened above £1/$1.34, reaching its highest level since mid-June and extending gains of more than 2% from late-June lows as markets increasingly priced in at least one Bank of England rate hike before year-end amid rising inflation risks linked to higher oil prices and renewed US-Iran tensions. The UK S&P Global Construction PMI edged up to 38.40 from 38.20, remaining well below the growth threshold as housebuilding and civil engineering weakened sharply, new orders declined, and employment fell for the 18th consecutive month.
The Euro strengthened to around €1/$1.14, recovering from June’s one-year low as investors increasingly priced in further European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with markets assigning a roughly 70% probability to a September rate hike and more than 30 basis points of additional tightening by year-end. The shift in expectations follows the ECB’s first rate increase since 2023 and renewed inflation concerns driven by higher energy prices linked to escalating US-Iran tensions, prompting ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras to warn that the Eurozone is effectively “back to square one” in its inflation fight. While Eurozone producer prices rose a modest 0.20% month-on-month in May after a 0.70% increase in April, annual producer inflation accelerated to 5.90%, the strongest pace since March 2023, highlighting persistent pipeline price pressures despite a 1.00% decline in energy costs during the month.
Inflationary pressures in China remained mixed, as consumer inflation eased to 1% in June from 1.20%, while monthly consumer prices fell 0.30%, reflecting weak domestic demand, falling food prices (-1.60%) and continued declines in pork prices (-15.90%). Conversely, producer price inflation accelerated to 4.10%, the strongest since July 2022, supported by higher commodity and energy costs, with mining prices rising 16.50% and production material costs increasing 5.50%. Meanwhile, China’s foreign exchange reserves declined to $3.42trillion from $3.44trillion in May amid broad US dollar strength.
Next week, Investors will continue to monitor developments in the Middle East after renewed US-Iran hostilities rekindled concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies, while awaiting the US CPI report.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities posted a solid gain this week, supported by renewed optimism around artificial intelligence and semiconductor demand. Risk sentiment also improved as oil prices and Treasury yields eased, reducing concerns about inflation and providing support to financial and other economically sensitive sectors. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 1.97%, 2.12% and 1.76% to 52,900.07, 25,832.67 and 7,483.24 respectively.
European equities declined this week as escalating US-Iran tensions drove oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns and increasing expectations that the ECB may need to tighten policy further. Technology and AI-related stocks also came under pressure as investors reassessed the sector’s elevated valuations, weighing heavily on major European semiconductor and industrial technology names. Although markets recovered some ground later in the week as oil prices eased and geopolitical concerns moderated, the rebound was insufficient to offset earlier losses, leaving European stocks lower overall for the week. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC40 indices decreased by -1.70%, -2.76% and -1.99% to 10,497.29, 25,067.09 and 8,338.97 respectively.
Asian equities delivered a mixed performance this week, with gains in Japan helping to offset weakness in China, where mainland stocks ended lower as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data releases and took profits following a recent technology-led rally. Markets were also shaped by geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their implications for oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, while policy support from China’s central bank helped cushion risk appetite by reinforcing expectations of continued accommodative monetary conditions. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 3.53% to 24,175.12 while the Topix index decreased by -0.70% to 4,036.08.
Next week, Earnings season will be the major focus, with several major US banks set to report. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Warsh may provide further details on potential Fed reforms during his congressional testimony.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
IMF Raises Nigeria Growth Outlook to 4.30% for 2027 as Reforms Boost Recovery, Global Inflation Seen Rising to 4.70%
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Nigeria’s economy to grow by 4.10% in 2026 and accelerate to 4.30% in 2027, driven by improving macroeconomic stability, ongoing reforms and favourable trade conditions. However, the Fund warned that persistently high food and energy prices could continue to erode household purchasing power and worsen poverty levels despite stronger economic growth. Globally, growth is forecast to slow to 3% in 2026 before recovering to 3.40% in 2027, while Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to maintain growth of 4.30%. The IMF also expects global inflation to rise from 4.10% in 2025 to 4.70% in 2026 before easing to 3.90% in 2027, citing higher food and energy costs.
FG Targets Ajaokuta Steel Revival Deal in 2026 as Chinese Investor Talks Advance, ₦500million FDI-Backed Gas Projects Underway
The Federal Government says it expects to sign a revival agreement for the long-idle Ajaokuta Steel Company with a Chinese investor before the end of 2026, as discussions reach an advanced stage. Minister of Steel Development Sha’ibu Abubakar Audu disclosed that restoring the steel complex will require between $1.50billion and $2billion in investment, making private sector participation critical to the project’s success. To prepare the facility for operations, the government has commenced a technical audit, secured a 20-year Gas Sale and Purchase Agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), and launched plans for five mini-Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants within the complex, expected to attract about $500million in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The administration has also signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with the Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria (DICON) to support the local production of military equipment. Established in 1979 but yet to produce liquid steel, Ajaokuta received a proposed ₦6.69billion allocation in the 2026 budget, with ₦6.04billion (90.40%) earmarked for personnel costs, underscoring the urgency of securing a sustainable revival plan for one of Nigeria’s most ambitious industrial projects.
PenCom Targets Deeper Capital Market Role as Pension Assets Reach Record ₦31.32trillion, Equity Investments Jump 38.09%
Nigeria’s National Pension Commission (PenCom) has unveiled plans to deepen engagement with the capital market to better deploy the country’s largest pool of long-term savings capital, as pension assets climbed to a record ₦31.32trillion in May 2026. PenCom Director-General Omolola Oloworaran said the industry is intensifying participation in capital market activities while maintaining its focus on delivering sustainable returns for Retirement Savings Account (RSA) holders. The commission also disclosed the recovery of over ₦3billion in unremitted pension contributions through collaboration with the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) and plans to partner with the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) to strengthen compliance. Meanwhile, the proposed Pension Industry Infrastructure Fund (PIIF) is at an advanced implementation stage, aimed at mobilising pension capital for infrastructure development. The move comes amid growing investment diversification, with Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) increasing holdings of Nigerian equities by 38.09% to ₦5.46trillion in the first quarter of 2026 from ₦3.96trillion at the end of 2025, reinforcing the pension sector’s expanding role in capital market growth and long-term economic financing.
Nigeria FX Market Turnover Hits Quarterly High of $3.05bn as Derivatives Activity Surges 45.92%, Daily Trading Reaches $610.60m
Nigeria’s foreign exchange market recorded its strongest performance of the quarter, with total Foreign Exchange (FX) spot and derivatives turnover rising 7.67% week-on-week to $3.05 billion in the week ended July 3, 2026, from $2.84billion a week earlier, according to FMDQ Securities Exchange data. Average daily turnover climbed to $610.60million, the highest level in more than three months, driven by stronger spot market activity and a sharp increase in hedging transactions. FX Spot transactions grew 6.79% to $2.96billion, accounting for 96.94% of total market turnover, while FX Forwards surged 45.92% to $93.45million, lifting the derivatives market share to 3.06% from 2.26%. The rise in forward contracts signals increasing use of currency risk management tools by corporates, importers and institutional investors seeking protection against naira volatility. Overall market turnover has now recovered by about $730million over two consecutive weeks, indicating improving liquidity and stronger participation in Nigeria’s official foreign exchange market as the third quarter of 2026 begins.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor the release of the June 2026 PMI data, Inflation data and FAAC allocation for insights into the health of the economy.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market closed the week on a firmly positive note, supported by renewed investor interest across the yield curve as market participants increased holdings of Nigeria’s Dollar-denominated debt securities. Stronger demand drove the average Eurobond yield lower by 8 basis points week-on-week to 6.95%, reflecting improved investor confidence in Nigeria’s external debt market and sovereign credit outlook. The bullish sentiment was underpinned by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and sustained foreign investor interest, although global risk sentiment and movements in United States Treasury yields continued to shape market activity.
Next week, the Nigerian Eurobond market is expected to remain broadly positive in the coming week, supported by sustained demand. However, market direction will remain sensitive to global interest rate expectations, United States Treasury yield movements, Fed decision and broader international market developments.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold eased during the week, with spot prices closing around $4,121.05/oz, down about 1.50% week-on-week as expectations of prolonged United States monetary tightening weighed on sentiment. Despite the decline, gold remains 22.77% higher year-on-year, supported by Central Bank purchases and safe-haven demand.
OIL
Oil prices strengthened, with Brent crude closing near $76.01 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $71.17 per barrel, gaining approximately 4.98% and 3.51% respectively during the week. Prices were supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over potential supply disruptions.
ETF
Major Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) posted mixed performance. Equity ETFs remained supported by investor risk appetite, while energy-focused ETFs benefited from higher oil prices. Precious metals ETFs were relatively subdued as gold recorded a weekly decline.
Gold’s direction will depend on upcoming United States inflation data and Federal Reserve policy expectations, while oil prices will remain sensitive to Middle East developments, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) supply decisions and global demand trends. ETF flows are expected to remain focused on equities, fixed income and selective commodity exposures.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
CBN Allots ₦1.06trillion as Treasury Bills Auction Attracts ₦2.03trillion Demand, One-Year Yield Rises to 17.70%
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) allotted ₦1.06trillion at its July 8, 2026 Treasury Bills auction after receiving ₦2.03trillion in subscriptions against an offer of ₦700billion, representing an oversubscription rate of 2.90x. Investor demand remained heavily concentrated in the 364-day bill, which attracted ₦1.86trillion in bids, accounting for about 91% of total subscriptions, leading the CBN to raise the stop rate to 17.70% from 17.34% at the previous auction. The 91-day bill stop rate edged up to 16.30% from 16.28%, while the 182-day bill remained unchanged at 16.50% despite being undersubscribed with only ₦29.94billion in bids against ₦100billion offered. The auction marks the first major sale under the CBN’s ₦5.80trillion third-quarter 2026 Treasury Bills issuance programme and the third consecutive increase in the one-year stop rate, highlighting sustained investor preference for longer-dated securities.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at ₦2.29trillion a decline from previous week’s close owing to Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) settlement, Tuesday saw an improvement of ₦352.96billion to ₦2.64trillion, Wednesday equally saw an improvement of ₦2.23illion to ₦4.87trillion, Thursday also saw improvements of ₦80.99billion to ₦4.95trillion. Friday opened with a credit of ₦4.33trillion, a decline of ₦628.42billion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%, while the Overnight (O/N) rate declined up by 18bps to 21.00% from 21.18%.
Next week, we expect rates to remain elevated in the market.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed bullish this week as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 6.35% to close at 243,798.76 and ₦156.45trillion respectively compared to 229,240.34 and ₦147.10trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.65 billion shares worth ₦220.57billion in 251,861 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.82 billion shares valued at ₦154.39billion that exchanged hands last week in 258,567 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed positive, as the Banking, Oil and Gas, Insurance, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices increased by 4.78%, 8.11%, 4.04%, 3.11% and 10.46% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were International Breweries PLC and RT Briscoe PLC while McNichols PLC and Thomas Wyatt Nigeria PLC topped the losers list.
The Nigerian equities market is expected to maintain a cautious bullish outlook as corporate action season closes in and Investors leverage on key data release to pick out stocks for Investing.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 10/07/2026 | 03/07/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,379.62 | 1,370.19 | 0.69% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,395.00 | 0.36% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTBREW | 9.50 | 13.30 | 3.80 | 40.00% |
| RTBRISCOE | 10.15 | 13.40 | 3.25 | 32.02% |
| LIVESTOCK | 7.20 | 9.25 | 2.05 | 28.47% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 55.00 | 69.20 | 14.20 | 25.82% |
| ABBEYBDS | 7.40 | 9.15 | 1.75 | 23.65% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MCNICHOLS | 7.00 | 5.00 | -2.00 | -28.57% |
| THOMASWY | 2.75 | 2.43 | -0.32 | -11.64% |
| GEREGU | 917.40 | 825.70 | -91.70 | -10.00% |
| CAP | 175.10 | 157.60 | -17.50 | -9.99% |
| GUINNESS | 365.50 | 329.00 | -36.50 | -9.99% |
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