GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Producer inflation remained volatile with headline PPI rising 0.50% month-on-month (m/m) and 4% year-on-year (y/y), driven by a 1.60% jump in goods prices and an 8.50% surge in energy amid the Iran conflict, while services prices were flat; core PPI cooled to 0.20% m/m and 3.60–3.80% y/y. The labour market stayed firm, with jobless claims falling to 207,000, albeit with continuing claims rising to 1.82 million. Energy markets saw looser near‑term supply as US crude inventories increased by 6.10 million barrels, marking a fifth straight weekly build.
UK External balances deteriorated as the UK shifted to a £0.72billion trade deficit in February from a £3.02billion surplus, with exports down 1.50% m/m to £80.20billion and imports up 3.20% to £80.92billion, reflecting weaker goods exports (‑3.90%) despite a notable 11.30% rise in shipments to the US, while services exports edged up 0.30%. GDP expanded 0.50% m/m in February, the strongest since January 2024, driven by services (+0.50%), construction (+1.00%) and a rebound in production (+0.50%), lifting annual GDP growth to 1.00%, though the data predate the Middle East escalation. Industrial production rose 0.50% m/m but manufacturing slipped 0.10%, as declines in transport equipment, metals and food offset gains in machinery and electronics.
Euro Area inflation pressures re‑intensified as headline CPI was revised up to 2.60% y/y in March (highest since July 2024), led by energy inflation at 5.10% amid Middle East tensions, while core inflation eased to 2.30%, underscoring limited underlying price momentum despite a 1.30% m/m CPI jump. External balances weakened, with the trade surplus narrowing to €11.50bn on a 6.70% y/y fall in exports, even as the current account surplus widened to €21.10bn on stronger services income. ECB minutes highlighted sharply elevated uncertainty, citing upside inflation risks and downside growth risks, reinforcing a cautious, meeting‑by‑meeting policy stance despite expectations that inflation will still converge toward 2% over the medium term.
China’s posted a strong headline 5% y/y GDP growth in Q1 2026 (and 1.30% q/q), but underlying momentum softened in March as demand weakened and external risks intensified. Retail sales slowed to 1.70% y/y, weighed down by a sharp decline in auto sales (-11.80%), while industrial output rose a better‑than‑expected 5.70% y/y, though moderating from earlier months. Trade dynamics diverged, with exports slowing to 2.50% y/y amid a 26.50% plunge in shipments to the US, while imports surged 27.80% y/y to a record $269.90billion, compressing the trade surplus to $51.13billion, the smallest since early 2025. Labour market pressures also edged up, with urban unemployment rising to 5.40%, while the outlook remains clouded by Middle East‑related supply and price risks and renewed US tariff threats tied to Iran, despite Beijing maintaining policy support and expanding offshore yuan bond issuance.
Next week, investors will watch for an agreement between Iran and the US to end their war and outlook on the global economy.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global equity markets rallied strongly during the week, as investor sentiment improved on easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and cooler‑than‑expected US inflation data, which together encouraged a broad risk‑on move across global assets.
Early in the week, markets were supported by renewed optimism around a potential de‑escalation of the US–Iran conflict, following reports of diplomatic engagements and progress toward temporary ceasefires involving regional actors. These developments reduced fears of prolonged supply disruptions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, expectations of an extended period of restrictive monetary policy moderated, driving renewed inflows into equities and other risk assets.
In the US, compared to last week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices increased by 6.84%, 4.54% and 3.19% to 24,468.48, 7,126.06 and 49,447.43, respectively.
European and UK stocks closed higher compared to last week, as the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices increased by 0.63%, 3.77% and 2.00% to 10,667.63, 24,702.24 and 8,425.13, respectively.
Asian indices also closed higher compared to last week as the Hang Seng and Topix indices increased by 1.03% and 0.56% to 26,160.33 and 3,760.81, respectively.
Next week, attention will turn to the expected resolutions in respect of the war, corporate earnings result from Tech and Pharma companies, and the PMI for March, 2026.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria Inflation Reaccelerates to 15.38% in March as Monthly Pressures Intensify
Nigeria’s headline inflation rose to 15.38% in March 2026, up 0.32%-point from 15.06% in February, signalling a renewed acceleration in price pressures, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Month‑on‑month inflation jumped sharply to 4.18% from 2.01%, indicating faster short‑term cost increases despite easing annual comparisons. Food inflation moderated to 14.31% y/y (from 25.22% in March 2025), but monthly food prices remained elevated at 4.17%, while core inflation climbed to 16.21% y/y with a notable 4.03% m/m increase. Urban inflation stood at 14.64% y/y, compared with a higher 17.22% y/y in rural areas, where monthly inflation surged to 6.73%, underscoring persistent cost pressures amid global oil‑price volatility and domestic logistics challenges.
FAAC Disbursements Jump 11.52% Month-on-Month as States Receive ₦784.29billion in February 2026
Nigeria’s Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursed ₦784.29billion to the 36 states in February 2026, reflecting a strong 11.52% month‑on‑month increase from ₦703.26billion in January 2026 and a 23.36% year‑on‑year rise from ₦635.76billion in February 2025, driven primarily by higher VAT receipts and a ₦100billion non‑oil revenue augmentation. VAT remained the largest contributor to distributable revenue, while the Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) was excluded due to pending reconciliation, without materially impacting overall inflows. The top 10 states collectively received ₦370.66billion, accounting for 47.26% of total allocations, underscoring continued concentration among oil‑producing and economically active states. From the non‑oil augmentation, ₦26billion was shared across all states, while ₦7.75billion accrued to the top 10, highlighting a growing influence of non‑oil revenues in shaping FAAC outcomes.
Minister of Finance Dismisses FX Reserve Dip as Nigeria Maintains Strong External Buffers
Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Wale Edun, has downplayed concerns over the recent decline in external reserves, stressing that Nigeria remains in a “very comfortable position” with about 13 months of import cover, well above the IMF’s 3–6 months benchmark, despite reserves falling to $48.60billion as of April 16, 2026 from a recent peak of $50.03billion in March. Speaking after the IMF Spring Meetings on April 17, Edun said the $1.38billion drop over five weeks reflects normal market dynamics in a now market‑driven FX system, not a crisis, adding that reserve levels are less critical given improved liquidity. While Fitch Ratings projects reserves may ease to $47billion by end‑2026 amid fiscal and external pressures, it noted reserves remain solid, covering about 7 months of external payments, above the ‘B’ median of 4.30 months, supported by FX reforms, stronger liquidity, and reduced reliance on central bank intervention.
NDIC Begins Final Wind‑Down of 90 Resolved Banks After P&A Takeovers
The Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) has commenced the final legal phase of winding down 89 defunct Microfinance Banks (MFBs) and one Primary Mortgage Bank (PMB), nearly two years after their licenses were revoked by the Central Bank of Nigeria in May 2023, following their successful resolution under the Purchase and Assumption (P&A) model. As of April 15, 2026, NDIC confirmed that the affected institutions have been taken over by new investors, recapitalized, issued fresh licenses by the CBN, and now operate under new identities, ensuring uninterrupted access to depositor funds. The Corporation is seeking Federal High Court dissolution orders to formally close the legacy entities and discharge itself as liquidator, marking the final step in a resolution process that preserved assets and liabilities, minimized systemic disruption, and reinforced confidence in Nigeria’s financial system, particularly within the microfinance segment critical to financial inclusion.
FG Waives Import Duties on EVs, Buses, Machinery to Ease Inflation Pressure
Nigeria’s Federal Government has approved sweeping import duty waivers on electric vehicles, mass transit buses, and manufacturing machinery, cutting tariffs from 5% to 0%, as part of emergency fiscal measures to cushion rising living costs and curb inflation amid the Middle East crisis. Additional tariff cuts include passenger vehicles (70% to 40%), bulk rice (70% to 47.50%), broken rice (70% to 30%), raw sugar (70% to 55–57.50%), crude palm oil (35% to 28.75%), steel sheets/coils (45% to 35%), and ceramic tiles (55% to 46.25%), alongside a 90‑day transition phase starting April 1 to allow market adjustment. The measures follow President Bola Tinubu’s directive to mitigate fallout from global energy disruptions that pushed fuel prices to about ₦1,350.00 per litre, with the policy aimed at lowering production costs, boosting affordability, supporting businesses, and dampening inflationary pressures.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor key domestic economic data releases, while keeping a sharp focus on the CBN’s FX interventions and FX liquidity conditions, as well as assessing the impact of external debt servicing pressures.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market recorded a modest rally, supported by improved demand across the curve. Renewed buying interest led to a broad-based compression in yields, with average yields declining by 16bps to 6.96%, signalling firmer investor sentiment and a gradual improvement in appetite for Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated debt.
Next week, we expect sentiment to remain cautious, with selective demands across Nigeria Sovereigns.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded with heightened volatility but ended the week modestly higher, as geopolitical risk offered intermittent support despite persistent macro headwinds. Spot gold settled around $4,833.56/oz, up 0.94% week-on-week (w/w), supported by safe‑haven flows even as US 10‑year Treasury yields hovered near 4.30% and the dollar remained firm. While gold is still up 40.74% y/y, gains have moderated as markets increasingly price a higher‑for‑longer rate environment amid energy‑driven inflation risks.
OIL
Oil markets remained volatile but closed the week sharply lower following easing geopolitical disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude fell to about $90.38/bbl, declining 17.11% w/w from the recent peak of roughly $109.03/bbl, as late‑week price action priced in partial de‑escalation of supply risks. WTI crude, meanwhile, also softened toward the mid‑$80s/bbl, reflecting similar sentiment shifts. Despite the sharp pullback, crude prices remain significantly higher on a y/y basis, underscoring lingering geopolitical risk premiums.
ETF
Bond ETFs continued to attract defensive inflows, underscoring investor preference for income and capital preservation amid elevated volatility. ICI data show bond ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.25billion in the week ended April 1, 2026, although this moderated from $10.96billion in the prior week. In contrast, commodity ETFs saw net inflows of $0.93billion, marking a sharp reversal from the $2.45billion outflow previously recorded, reflecting short‑term repositioning after the recent oil price correction. Overall flow dynamics indicate continued caution, with investors favouring fixed income while tactically adjusting commodity exposure.
Gold is expected to remain volatile with a neutral‑to‑soft bias as elevated yields and dollar dynamics limit upside, while Oil is likely to stay headline‑driven, with Brent trading in a $90–$105 range. Bond ETFs should continue to see steady inflows, supported by income demand and defensive positioning, while commodity‑linked products remain vulnerable to sharp sentiment swings and geopolitical repricing.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
SEC Proposes ₦7.50billion Capital Threshold for Free Trade Zone Firms Accessing Capital Market
Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has proposed a minimum paid‑up share capital of ₦7.50billion for Free Trade Zone Entities (FTZEs) seeking to raise funds from the capital market, under draft rules issued pursuant to Section 95(1)(f) of the Investments and Securities Act 2025. The proposal requires eligible firms to have at least three years of operational history, with two years spent operating independently within a free trade zone, and to be licensed by recognised authorities such as the Nigeria Export Processing Zone Authority or the Oil and Gas Free Zone Authority. In addition, qualifying FTZEs must meet governance, tax compliance, continuous disclosure standards, and list on a recognised securities exchange, a move the SEC says is aimed at strengthening investor confidence, improving transparency, and aligning free‑zone issuers with broader capital market standards.
Dangote Plans 10% Multi‑Exchange IPO of Refinery, Promises Dollar Dividends
Dangote has unveiled plans to list about 10% of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE on multiple African stock exchanges, with proceeds earmarked to fund a wider $40billion expansion programme across oil refining, fertiliser and other industrial projects. Speaking in Washington, Dangote said the refinery will pay US dollar‑denominated dividends to shareholders post‑IPO and has already appointed advisers including Stanbic IBTC Capital, Vetiva Advisory Services, and FirstCap. The move comes as the 650,000 bpd refinery reaches full capacity, expands exports across Africa and Europe, and advances plans to scale refining capacity to 1.40 million bpd and polypropylene output from 900,000 million tonnes per year (mtpa) to 2.40 million mtpa, potentially positioning it as the world’s largest refinery.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦4.94trillion, an improvement of ₦153.65billion, declining to ₦3.79trillion on Wednesday, owing to net OMO settlement. Liquidity improved on Thursday to ₦3.82trillion and closing at ₦3.75trillion. Consequently, Open Repo Rate (OPR) remained unchanged at 22.00% while the Overnight Rate decreased by 16bps to 22.16% and the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) stood at 22.01%.
The Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) market average yield decreased week-on-week by 6bps to 17.50%, while the Bonds market yields closed mixed this week as the average yield for the short-tenor bonds decreased by 2bps to 16.01%, the average yields for mid-tenor bonds remained unchanged at 16.08% and the average yields for the long-tenor bonds increased by 1bps to 15.07% respectively.
Next week, attention will shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Primary market where the DMO is ₦750billion across the 91-, 182-and 364-day bills against ₦758.32billion maturing.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 6.57% and 6.60%to close the week at 217,167.57 and ₦139.83trillion respectively compared to 203,770.43 and ₦131.17trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.59 billion shares worth ₦195.31billion in 254,553 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.36 billion shares valued at ₦151.95billion that exchanged hands last week in 229,442 deals.
On a sectoral basis, the Banking, Oil and Gas, Consumer Goods, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods indices rose by 11.85%, 17.59%, 3.39% and 1.26% while the Insurance index fell -0.04% respectively.
Notable gainers this week Trans-Nationwide Express PLC and Ecobank Transnational Incorporated PLC while Ikeja Hotel PLC and Coronation Insurance PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the market to sustain its bullish bias as Investors continue to position ahead of anticipated interim dividend payments.
| CURRENCY |
| (₦/$) | 17/04/2026 | 10/04/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,343.64 | 1,356.89 | -0.98% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,395.00 | 0.36% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| WAPIC | 2.92 | 2.50 | -0.42 | -14.38% |
| IKEJAHOTEL | 39.00 | 33.40 | -5.60 | -14.36% |
| INTENEGINS | 3.55 | 3.06 | -0.49 | -13.80% |
| ACADEMY | 8.75 | 7.65 | -1.10 | -12.57% |
| HONYFLO | 21.35 | 19.00 | -2.35 | -11.01% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| TRANSEXPR | 3.77 | 6.05 | 2.28 | 60.48% |
| ETI | 46.00 | 67.30 | 21.30 | 46.30% |
| STANBIC | 138.00 | 188.55 | 50.55 | 36.63% |
| ROYALEX | 1.43 | 1.85 | 0.42 | 29.37% |
| ARADEL | 1,279.00 | 1,649.00 | 370.00 | 28.93% |
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