GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US macroeconomic landscape presented mixed signals amid easing inflation expectations and lingering geopolitical tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.52% as the University of Michigan’s one-year inflation expectations dropped to 4.20% and consumer sentiment rebounded to 54.40. Industrial production edged up 0.10% month-over-month (expanding at a 4.00% annualized rate in Q2), with flat manufacturing output and capacity utilization holding steady at 76.10%. The housing sector diverged sharply: building permits fell 3.00% to 1.36million amid high mortgage rates, while housing starts surprisingly jumped 19.00% to 1.42million, driven by a massive multi-family surge. Trade metrics showed import prices rising 0.30% month-over-month (7.10% annually), while export prices dipped 0.60% month-over-month (though remaining up 10.20% annually). Despite softer near-term inflation data, markets continue to price in a Federal Reserve rate hold for the current month but a hike by year-end, compounded by ongoing risks from US-China friction and Middle East supply chain disruptions.
Economic activity in the UK remained mixed, as GDP expanded 0.10% month-on-month in May driven by a 0.30% rise in services, while the 10-year gilt yield held near 4.95% amid market expectations of a Bank of England rate hike by year-end and another by March 2027 due to Middle East-driven oil price risks. Conversely, industrial production fell 0.50% month-on-month, dragged down by a sharp 4.60% drop in mining and quarrying, and construction output contracted 0.80% monthly (down 1.80% year-on-year), marking a seventh consecutive annual decline despite a slight 0.10% monthly edge-up in manufacturing. Meanwhile, sterling dipped below $1.34 as investors found reassurance in the anticipated appointment of Shabana Mahmood as Chancellor under incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham, easing concerns over an expansionary fiscal stance despite lingering geopolitical inflation pressures.
Inflationary pressures in the Eurozone continued to ease, as annual inflation slowed to 2.80% in June from 3.20% in May, with core inflation dropping to 2.40% and energy inflation moderating to 8.50%, though markets still fully price in a European Central Bank rate hike in September and another by spring 2027. Conversely, external and industrial metrics weakened significantly, with the bloc posting a €7.80billion trade deficit in May 2026 driven by a 10.00% surge in imports and a widening energy deficit to €30.30billion while industrial production unexpectedly contracted 0.20% month-over-month, ending a three-month growth streak. Meanwhile, the euro hovered near $1.14 amid expectations of further monetary tightening, even as the current account recorded a narrowed €6.19billion deficit in May, supported by a robust services surplus that partially offset the shrinking goods surplus and declining exports to major partners like the US and China.
China’s economic recovery remained uneven in mid-2026, as Q2 GDP expanded 4.30% year-on-year, missing the official 4.50%–5.00% target and marking the weakest pace since late 2022. Domestic demand stayed subdued, evidenced by first-half fixed-asset investment plunging 5.70% dragged by an 18.00% collapse in property investment and new yuan loan growth slowing to a record low 5.20%, with June lending totaling CNY 1.61trillion, well below forecasts. Conversely, the labor market showed resilience with the urban unemployment rate easing to a one-year low of 5.00%, and industrial production accelerated to 5.30% in June, though broader Q2 industrial capacity utilization slipped to 73.00%. External trade provided a notable bright spot, with June exports and imports hitting record highs to deliver the second-largest monthly trade surplus on record, even as the offshore yuan weakened to 6.77 per dollar and the 10-year government bond yield dropped to 1.73% amid rising expectations for targeted fiscal stimulus ahead of the late-July Politburo meeting.
Next week, developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US major indices closed the week lower, with technology and semiconductor stocks under sustained pressure amid renewed US–Iran tensions and a reassessment of AI-related valuations. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices decreased by -0.67%, -0.77%, and -1.36% to 52,146.42, 25,520.24, and 7,457.69 respectively.
European indices also finished the week in negative territory as escalating US–Iran tensions lifted oil prices, revived inflation worries, and pushed investors to reassess ECB policy expectations; tech and industrial-tech names were particularly weak. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 increased by 0.97% to 10,600.37, while the DAX and CAC40 indices decreased by -1.13% and -0.31% to 24,830.98 and 8,338.97 respectively.
Asian markets diverged, with Hong Kong advancing while Japan slipped as global risk sentiment wavered and domestic tech/AI stocks felt the same valuation pressure seen in the US. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 1.44% to 24,562.24 while the Topix index decreased by -2.20% to 3,919.21.
Next week, markets are likely to remain volatile and directionally cautious as investors weigh a strong start to Q2 earnings against lingering geopolitical risk, elevated oil prices, and sticky inflation that keep rate-cut hopes in check.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
CIBN expects CBN to hold benchmark interest rate at 26.50%
The Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria has projected that the Central Bank of Nigeria will retain its benchmark interest rate at 26.50% when the Monetary Policy Committee concludes its 306th meeting. CIBN President and Chairman of Council, Dr. Dele Alabi, made the projection in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria on Saturday in Lagos. The projection comes as the MPC prepares to meet in Abuja on Monday to begin deliberations on the next policy direction. The CBN had held the MPR at 26.50% at its last meeting, as part of ongoing efforts to contain inflation and support macroeconomic stability. He said the approach would enable the CBN to make more informed decisions by allowing more time to observe how current macroeconomic trends develop before introducing any changes to its monetary policy stance.
Inflation Falls To 15.91% In June Despite Jump In Food Costs
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 15.91% in June 2026, easing marginally from 15.93% recorded in May. According to the report, the June 2026 headline inflation rate stood significantly lower than the 25.29% recorded in the corresponding month of 2025, reflecting what the Bureau described as a continued moderation in inflationary pressures over the past year. The NBS stated that in June 2026, the headline inflation rate was 15.91%, down from 15.93% in May 2026 and stood at 25.29% in the same month of the preceding year, June 2025. It added that on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate stood at 1.66% in June, lower than the 1.75% recorded in May, indicating that average prices rose at a slower pace during the month under review. The Bureau explained that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 143.00 points in June, up from 140.70 points in May, representing a 2.30point increase in the general price level. Despite the overall easing, the NBS reported that food inflation moved in the opposite direction, rising sharply on a month-on-month basis even as it moderated slightly on a year-on-year basis. This mixed picture set the stage for the CBN’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for 20–21 July, where interest rates and other measures were under review after the policy rate had been at 26.50%.
Nigeria to track poverty, incomes as government seeks proof reforms are working
Nigeria plans to publish indicators tracking poverty, incomes, and inequality as President Bola Tinubu’s government seeks to show that economic reforms are improving living standards in Africa’s largest economy, the finance minister said on Thursday. The planned scorecard is an attempt to answer a central criticism of Tinubu’s reform programme: that gains in revenue, foreign exchange liquidity, and investor confidence have yet to translate into meaningful relief for households facing high food, transport, and living costs. Speaking at a conference in Lagos, organised by BusinessDay newspaper, Taiwo Oyedele said the government would assess “shared prosperity” using three measures: reductions in multidimensional poverty, increases in real income per capita, and lower inequality.
Tinubu’s government is seeking to demonstrate that reforms introduced in 2023, including scrapping a fuel subsidy and liberalising the naira, applauded by lenders and investors, are translating into broader gains for Nigerians after driving up inflation and living costs.
IMF keeps Nigeria’s growth forecast unchanged at 4.10% in 2026 and 4.30% in 2027
The IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projects global growth at 3.00% in 2026 and 3.40% in 2027, slightly below the 3.50% average recorded in 2024–25 but broadly unchanged from its April 2026 forecast. While advanced economies are expected to see modest gains, the revised outlook for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), including Sub-Saharan Africa, remains cautious. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF sees growth stabilizing at around 4.20% in 2026 and 4.60% in 2027, with Nigeria among the standout performers due to ongoing structural reforms and improvements in fiscal and monetary policy coordination. For Nigeria, the message was more encouraging as growth forecasts of 4.10% for 2026 and 4.30% for 2027 were left unchanged despite the disruption from the past. Nigeria’s economy grew 3.89% in Q1 2026, up from 3.13% a year earlier.
Next week, Nigeria’s domestic economy is expected to remain broadly stable next week, with attention focused on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, foreign exchange market developments, inflation trends, and liquidity conditions in the fixed-income market.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian Eurobond market traded on a cautious but relatively stable note during the week, as investors balanced improving domestic macroeconomic fundamentals against persistent global uncertainties. Market sentiment was largely influenced by expectations surrounding the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, U.S. interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments. Nevertheless, trading remained sensitive to movements in U.S. Treasury yields and geopolitical developments, particularly heightened tensions in the Middle East, which continued to shape risk appetite across emerging and frontier markets.
Next week, Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market is expected to trade with a cautiously positive bias next week, as investors monitor the outcome of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting and key global macroeconomic developments.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold weakened during the week, with spot prices closing at approximately $4,016.95/oz, representing a 3.00%+ week-on-week decline as stronger expectations for prolonged restrictive United States monetary policy offset traditional safe-haven demand arising from geopolitical tensions. Despite the weekly pullback, gold remains 19.87% higher year-on-year, supported by continued central bank accumulation and elevated global uncertainty.
OIL
Oil prices rallied sharply during the week. Brent crude closed at approximately $88.10 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled around $82.49 per barrel. Brent and WTI gained more than 14.00% and 12.00% respectively during the week, driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, concerns over disruptions to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and fears of tighter global crude supplies.
ETF
Major Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) delivered mixed performance during the week. Broad equity ETFs came under modest pressure amid higher energy prices and renewed inflation concerns. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) declined from 754.95, reflecting weaker risk sentiment. Conversely, energy-focused ETFs benefited from the strong rally in crude oil prices. Precious metals ETFs were broadly softer for most of the week, though the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) recovered on Friday to close at $368.41, tracking the late rebound in bullion prices.
Gold’s near-term direction will continue to depend on incoming United States inflation data, labour market conditions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations could continue to weigh on bullion, although geopolitical risks may provide support. Oil prices are expected to remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, potential disruptions to key shipping lanes, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand trends. ETF flows are likely to remain focused on quality equities, fixed-income strategies offering attractive yields, and selective commodity exposures, particularly energy-related funds amid heightened supply concerns.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at ₦4.96trillion, an increase of ₦634.17billion owing to the previous Friday’s OMO Maturity. Tuesday saw a decline of ₦1.60trillion due to OMO settlement. Wednesday saw an improvement of ₦1.90trillion to ₦5.27trillion from net OMO settlement. Thursday also saw improvements of ₦38.38billion to ₦5.30trillion. Friday opened with a credit of ₦4.63trillion, a decline of ₦669.51billion following the net Nigeria Treasury Bills Auction settlement. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Next week, attention would shift to the Bonds Auction where the DMO is offering a total of ₦1.20trillion across the 22.60% FGN JAN 2035 (10-YR RE-OPENING), 16.25% FGN APR 2037 (20-YR RE-OPENING), and 15.45% FGN JUN 2038 (15-YR RE-OPENING).
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded a mixed performance; while the market cap extended its bullishness from the previous week, the NGX All-Share Index depreciated by 0.14% while the Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.39% to close at 243,462.13 and ₦157.06trillion respectively, compared to 243,798.76 and ₦156.45trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.82billion shares worth ₦182.50billion in 226,729.00 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.65billion shares valued at ₦220.57billion that exchanged hands last week in 251,861.00 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed mixed, as the Banking and Insurance indices closed positive, increasing by 9.30% and 0.25%, while the Oil and Gas, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods indices decreased by -0.11%, -0.15%, and -6.26% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were First Holdco PLC and Thomas Wyatt Nigeria PLC while Bua Cement PLC and Red Star Express PLC topped the losers list.
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTING
Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc: Listing of 13,812,239,000.00 Ordinary Shares of 50.00 Kobo each arising from Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc’s Offer for Subscription of 12,581,000,000.00 Ordinary Shares of 50.00 Kobo each at ₦7.00 Per Share.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to maintain a cautious bullish outlook as corporate action season closes in and investors leverage key data releases to pick out stocks for investing.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 17/07/2026 | 10/07/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,380.18 | 1,379.62 | 0.04% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,400.00 | 0.00% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 69.20 | 95.95 | 26.75 | 38.66% |
| THOMASWY | 2.43 | 3.09 | 0.66 | 27.16% |
| FIDELITYBK | 19.00 | 21.85 | 2.85 | 15.00% |
| LEARNAFRCA | 9.00 | 10.30 | 1.30 | 14.44% |
| UBA | 41.00 | 45.50 | 4.50 | 10.98% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| BUACEMENT | 340.20 | 275.60 | -64.60 | -18.99% |
| REDSTAREX | 24.55 | 20.00 | -4.55 | -18.53% |
| INTENEGINS | 5.50 | 4.66 | -0.84 | -15.27% |
| CILEASING | 6.40 | 5.55 | -0.85 | -13.28% |
| PZ | 90.00 | 80.95 | -9.05 | -10.06% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
Alpha10 Group. 13, Mambolo Street, Zone 2, Wuse, Abuja. Visit us at www.alpha10group.com.