GLOBAL ECONOMY
US initial jobless claims rose modestly to 214,000 and continuing claims edged up to 1.82 million, both still historically low, underscoring limited layoffs. Consumer demand strengthened as retail sales jumped 1.70% month-on-month in March, the fastest pace since March 2025, driven by a 15.50% surge in gasoline sales amid Iran-related energy price shocks. Crude inventories rose by 1.93 million barrels (vs expected draw), while gasoline (-4.60 million) and distillate (-3.40 million) fell sharply. Global Composite PMI rose to 52.00, led by manufacturing (54.00) on strong output and inventory building, even as services (51.30) lagged and export demand weakened. Consumer sentiment remained deeply fragile despite a small rebound and inflation expectations surging to 4.70% (1‑year) and 3.50% (5‑year), reinforcing the tension between solid near‑term growth and worsening inflation dynamics tied largely to energy and geopolitical shocks.
The British Pound rebounded toward £1/$1.35 on easing geopolitical risk around US‑Iran talks and firmer domestic fundamentals. FY26 borrowing fell to £132billion and receipts surged, though debt remained high at 93.80% of GDP. Inflation pressures intensified, with CPI rising to 3.30% year-on-year in March, driven by transport (4.70%) and fuel prices. Retail sales rose 0.70% month-on-month (fuel-led), lifting 1.70% year-on-year, even as confidence deteriorated sharply. Unemployment fell to 4.90% as 60,000 fewer people were unemployed, but payrolled employees declined by 11,000, inactivity rose to 21.00%, and employment gains were driven by self‑employed full‑time work amid ongoing hiring restraint. Composite PMI stayed at 52.00, Services 52.00 and Manufacturing 53.60. Markets prices two 25bp Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes in 2026, with rising odds of a third by year‑end, even as growth-quality and labour slack concerns linger.
The Euro rebounded above €1/$1.17, supported by cautious optimism around potential US‑Iran peace progress and expectations of European central Bank’s (ECB’s) policy stability at the upcoming April meeting. The Eurozone deficit narrowed to 2.90% of GDP in 2025 from 3.00% in 2024, yet seven members breached the EU’s 3.00% ceiling, led by Belgium (-5.20%), France (-5.10%), Romania (-7.90%), and Poland (-7.30%), while Italy (-3.10%) remained above the limit, unlike Germany (-2.70%), Spain (-2.40%), and the Netherlands (-1.60%). Composite PMI dropped to 48.60, the strongest contraction since November 2024, as services slumped to 47.40 on weaker demand and higher energy costs, especially in Germany, while manufacturing expanded (52.20) amid stockpiling and export recovery
The offshore Yuan weakened past l ¥6.83/$1, pressured by a stronger dollar and Middle East escalation. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) kept the 1‑year LPR at 3.00% and the 5‑year LPR at 3.50% for an 11th straight month, underscoring a cautious, supportive stance as Q1 GDP expanded by 5.00% year-on-year, accelerating from 4.50% in late 2025 and sitting at the top of Beijing’s newly lowered 4.50%–5.00% full‑year target. However, youth unemployment (16–24) rose to 16.90%, 25–29 unemployment to 7.70%, the 30–59 rate to 4.30%, and the headline surveyed jobless rate climbing to 5.40%, a 13‑month high, reflecting weak hiring absorption despite policy support. Capital flows softened, as FDI fell 7.30% year-on-year to ¥249.60billion in Q1, though composition remained constructive, with high‑tech investment at ¥102.73billion, manufacturing ¥71.46billion, services ¥174.60billion.
Next week, Investor focus will centre on the prospects for a US–Iran agreement, key earnings from global tech giants shaping AI‑spending expectations, and a heavy slate of central‑bank decisions and macro data, including US and Euro Area GDP and inflation prints, which together will drive near‑term global market direction.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global markets recorded a selective and data‑driven week, with investor positioning shaped primarily by macroeconomic data and regional equity performance, rather than major geopolitical breakthroughs. In the United States, equity markets were mixed, reflecting continued rotation within sectors: the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined week-on-week, pressured by cyclical and industrial stocks, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 rose, supported by resilience in large‑cap technology and growth stocks.
European equities underperformed, as the FTSE 100, DAX and CAC 40 fell, reflecting softer growth sentiment and cautious earnings outlooks.
Asian markets also closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index and Japan’s TOPIX declining, amid ongoing concerns around regional growth momentum. Overall, the week was characterised by regional divergence, sector rotation, and sustained sensitivity to inflation and growth signals, leaving global risk sentiment balanced rather than decisively risk‑on or risk‑off.
In the US, compared to last week, the Dow jones decreased by -0.44% to close at 49,230.71 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 1.50% and 0.55% to 24,836.6 and 7,165.08 respectively.
European and UK stocks closed lower compared to last week, as the FTSE 100, German DAX and CAC 40 indices decreased by -2.70%, -2.32% and -3.17% to 10379.08, 24,128.98 and 8,157.82 respectively.
Asian indices also closed lower compared to last week as the Hang Seng and Topix indices decreased by -0.70% and -1.18% to 25,978.07 and 3,716.59, respectively.
Next week, focus will be on key central bank policy decisions, advance Q1 GDP releases, and PMI data, with these events expected to guide near‑term global market sentiment.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Fears Rise as Tinubu Seeks $516.33Million Deutsche Bank Loan for Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway
President Bola Tinubu has requested Senate approval for a $516.33million external loan from Deutsche Bank to finance Sections 1, 1A and 1B of the proposed 1,000 km Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway, a flagship project under the Renewed Hope Agenda aimed at boosting North–South connectivity, trade, logistics efficiency and food security. While the Presidency argues the loan falls within an already approved borrowing framework and will unlock economic activity across major commercial and agricultural corridors, the proposal has triggered intense public debate amid concerns over Nigeria’s rising debt burden. Critics questioned fiscal discipline, legislative scrutiny and repayment capacity, while supporters argue borrowing for productive infrastructure can drive growth if properly executed. The debate is sharpened by fresh Debt Management Office figures showing debt service rose to ₦16trillion in 2025, up 22.90% from ₦13.02trillion in 2024, with external debt service at $5.15billion, accounting for 46.20% of total debt servicing, underscoring mounting fiscal pressure on the government.
CBN Moves to Cap Bank Charges, Mandate Full APR Disclosure in 2026 Draft Guidelines
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has released a draft revised Guide to Charges by Banks and Other Financial Institutions, 2026, introducing fee caps and stricter disclosure rules to boost transparency, consumer protection and digital adoption across the banking system. Under the proposal, interbank transfer fees are capped at ₦10 for transactions between ₦5,000 and ₦50,000, ₦50 for transfers above ₦50,000, while transfers below ₦5,000 remain free; ATM withdrawals from other banks attract ₦100 per ₦20,000 on‑site, and ₦100 plus up to ₦500 surcharge off‑site, while merchant service charges are capped at 0.50%, subject to a ₦10,000 maximum per transaction. The draft also mandates that all loans be quoted using the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) to eliminate hidden charges, allows negotiable fees within strict limits, and is open for public feedback until May 8, 2026, ahead of a potential May 1, 2026 implementation, replacing the 2020 guide.
FAAC Disburses ₦2.04trillion to FG, States, LGAs for March 2026 as Statutory Revenue Rises
The Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) shared ₦2.04trillion among the Federal Government, states and local government councils for March 2026, reflecting combined inflows from statutory revenue, VAT and a ₦200billion augmentation, according to the communiqué from its April meeting in Abuja. The distributable revenue comprised ₦1.32trillion statutory revenue, ₦515.39billion VAT, and ₦200billion augmentation, drawn from gross revenue of ₦2.36trillion, after deductions of ₦81.08billion for collection costs and ₦246.87billion for transfers and refunds. Of the total, the Federal Government received ₦789.16billion, states ₦657.60billion, local governments ₦468.83billion, while ₦120.76billion was paid as 13% derivation to oil‑producing states. Statutory revenue rose by ₦137.91billion month‑on‑month to ₦1.70trillion, but VAT dipped slightly to ₦664.43billion, underscoring mixed fiscal performance amid higher tax receipts and weaker oil‑related inflows.
Nigeria’s States’ Debt Climbs 9.89% to ₦4.36trillion in 2025 as Lagos Tops Burden
Nigeria’s subnational debt worsened in 2025, with the combined debt stock of the 36 states and the FCT rising to ₦4.36trillion, from ₦3.97trillion in 2024, representing a 9.89% year‑on‑year increase or ₦392.41billion, according to Debt Management Office (DMO) data. Borrowing remained highly concentrated, as the top 10 most indebted states accounted for ₦2.96trillion, or 67.98% of total subnational debt, underscoring widening fiscal imbalances. Lagos State alone owed ₦1.04trillion, accounting for 27.97% of the entire debt stock, while Lagos, Rivers, Delta, Ogun and the FCT collectively held nearly ₦2.26trillion, more than half of total obligations. Notably, Benue State was the only top‑10 state to reduce its debt, cutting liabilities by 12.52% to ₦107.23billion, highlighting uneven fiscal positions across states amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor key domestic economic data releases, while keeping a sharp focus on the CBN’s FX interventions and FX liquidity conditions, as well as assessing the impact of external debt servicing pressures.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market recorded a modest bullish performance during the period, supported by improved investor demand across the curve. Renewed buying interest resulted in a 6bps compression in average yields to 6.89%, signalling a gradual recovery in external investor sentiment and sustained appetite for Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated instruments, particularly against the backdrop of relatively attractive yields within the emerging market universe.
Next week, we expect sentiment to remain cautious, with selective demands across Nigeria Sovereigns.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded under pressure during the week, weighed down by elevated US yields and a firm dollar, but found intermittent support from lingering geopolitical risks. Spot gold closed around $4,709.27/oz, declining approximately 2.53% w/w, as easing Middle East stress and reduced immediate safe‑haven demand offset underlying risk concerns. Despite the weekly pullback, gold remains up 41.85% y/y, highlighting its strong longer‑term performance, although upside momentum is moderating as markets increasingly price a higher‑for‑longer US interest rate environment.
OIL
Oil prices saw heightened volatility and closed the week mixed, reflecting shifting geopolitical expectations around the Strait of Hormuz and tentative diplomatic signals. Brent crude settled near $105.88/bbl, posting a sharp c.17.00% w/w gain, while WTI crude ended around $94.88/bbl, up roughly 13.00% w/w, driven by supply disruption risks and constrained global inventories. On a year‑on‑year basis, Brent is up 60.91%, underscoring the persistence of geopolitical risk premiums despite short‑term price swings.
ETF
ETF flow data reflected a defensive investor posture amid elevated macro uncertainty. According to ICI data, bond ETFs recorded net inflows of about $2.68 billion in the week ended 15 April 2026, moderating from stronger inflows in earlier weeks but still signalling demand for income and capital preservation. In contrast, commodity ETFs recorded modest net outflows of approximately $0.30 billion, reversing prior inflows as investors tactically reduced exposure following sharp oil price moves. Overall, flow dynamics continue to point to risk caution, with allocations favouring fixed income over cyclical and commodity‑linked assets.
Gold is expected to remain volatile with a neutral‑to‑soft bias as high real yields and USD strength cap upside, while geopolitical risks provide downside protection. Oil prices are likely to stay headline‑driven, with Brent expected to trade within a $95.00–$110.00 range in the near term. Bond ETFs should continue to attract steady defensive inflows, supported by elevated yields, while commodity‑linked products remain vulnerable to sharp sentiment shifts and geopolitical repricing.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Strong Demand as Nigerian Treasury Bills Auction Records 2.64x Bid‑to‑Cover
Nigeria’s Treasury Bills auction held on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, recorded robust investor demand, with a bid‑to‑cover ratio of 2.64x, underscoring strong liquidity conditions in the fixed‑income market. Total subscription reached ₦2.36trillion, equivalent to 3.15x the amount on offer, reflecting sustained appetite across tenors.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) sold ₦894.16billion, exceeding the initial ₦750billion offer and resulting in an oversubscription of ₦114.16billion. Stop rates on the 91‑day, 182‑day, and 364‑day Treasury bills remained unchanged, signalling the authorities’ intent to maintain rate stability amid strong demand.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦3.57trillion, increasing to ₦3.71trillion on Tuesday, following FGN bond coupon payment on Monday, Wednesday saw an increase, owing to net OMO auction settlement. Liquidity declined on Friday to ₦3.97trillion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) declined by 1bps to close at 22.00%.
Next week, attention will shift to the FGN Bonds Market where the DMO is offering ₦700billion across the 5-Yr Re-opening, 7-Yr Re-opening, and 10-Yr Re-opening.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 3.96% and 3.94%to close the week at 225,724.33 and ₦145.34trillion respectively compared to 217,167.57 and ₦139.83trillion last week.
A total turnover of 3.81 billion shares worth ₦213.96billion in 297,202 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.59 billion shares valued at ₦195.31billion that exchanged hands last week in 254,553 deals.
On a sectoral basis, all sectors closed positive, with the Banking, Oil and Gas, Consumer Goods, Consumer Goods, Industrial Goods and Insurance indices rising by 6.81%, 0.86%, 5.25%, 7.70% and 0.40% respectively.
Notable gainers this week UACN PLC and Union Dicon Salt PLC while Abbey Mortgage Bank PLC and Infinity Trust Mortgage Bank PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the market to sustain its bullish bias as Investors continue to position ahead of anticipated interim dividend payments.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 24/04/2026 | 17/04/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,358.44 | 1,343.64 | 1.10% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,400.00 | 0.00% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INFINITY | 19.00 | 9.35 | -9.65 | -50.79% |
| ABBEYBD | 8.10 | 5.40 | -2.70 | -33.33% |
| GUINEAINS | 1.25 | 1.06 | -0.19 | -15.20% |
| STANBIC | 188.55 | 162.50 | -26.05 | -13.82% |
| LIVINGTRUST | 4.10 | 3.65 | -0.45 | -10.98% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| UACN | 100.00 | 142.00 | 42.00 | 42.00% |
| UNIONDICON | 16.50 | 21.90 | 5.40 | 32.73% |
| NASCON | 156.00 | 206.90 | 50.90 | 32.63% |
| TRANSEXPR | 6.05 | 7.90 | 1.85 | 30.58% |
| ZICHIS | 12.41 | 15.60 | 3.19 | 25.71% |
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