GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US macroeconomic remained robust but increasingly inflationary, sustaining expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Business activity accelerated, with the S&P Global Composite and Services PMIs both rising to 53.60 in July partially lifted by temporary FIFA World Cup spending while Manufacturing PMI remained resilient at 53.80 despite a slight slowdown in production. However, this growth is accompanied by mounting inflationary pressures; escalating US-Iran conflicts have disrupted Middle East energy supplies, driving input costs to a 14-month high, pushing output inflation to a near four-year peak, and worsening supply chain delays to their worst level in nearly four years.
The UK economy is slowly rebounding into expansion, with the S&P Global Composite PMI rising to 52.10, driven by robust growth in both the Services (51.80) and Manufacturing (52.80) sectors, aided by a temporary consumption boost from FIFA World Cup spending and favorable summer weather. This positive momentum was mirrored in retail sales, which unexpectedly grew 1% month-over-month in June (and 4.20% year-over-year), while consumer confidence surged to a six-month high of –17 following the appointment of Prime Minister Andy Burnham. Despite these encouraging demand indicators, underlying vulnerabilities persist as firms continue to trim staffing levels, and the broader outlook remains clouded by elevated labor costs, renewed Middle East tensions impacting energy prices, and newly imposed US tariffs, though the UK government maintains that existing trade agreements will shield key exports.
The Eurozone economy continued its growth trajectory, with the Composite PMI rising to a four-month high of 51.90, driven by expansions in both the Services (51.60) and Manufacturing (52.00) sectors, alongside the first employment growth of the year and easing supply-chain pressures. Consumer confidence in the Euro Area improved for a third consecutive month to -15.90 in July 2026 from -17.60 in June and compared to forecasts of -16.80. Sentiment also strengthened across the broader European Union, with the index improving to -15.10 from –17.00 in the previous month. Despite this upward trend, the euro remained under pressure below $1.14 as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil near $100 a barrel and surged natural gas prices, reinforcing stubborn inflation risks. Although 12-month consumer inflation expectations cooled to 3% in June, persistent input and output cost pressures have led the European Central Bank (ECB) to keep rates unchanged while strongly signaling a likely September rate hike. This tightening monetary outlook is further complicated by the imposition of new US tariffs on EU imports, adding external trade uncertainties to the region’s macroeconomic landscape.
China’s macroeconomic environment currently reflects a fragile and uneven recovery, prompting the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to maintain benchmark lending rates at record lows (1-year LPR at 3%, 5-year at 3.50%) for a 14th consecutive month while injecting a net ¥500billion via medium-term facilities to support liquidity. Despite this accommodation, domestic demand remains subdued: Q2 GDP growth eased to its weakest pace since late 2022, June new yuan loans missed forecasts at ¥1.61trillion, and overall loan growth slowed to a record low of 5.20% in the first half of the year. Foreign direct investment continued its multi-year decline, narrowing slightly to a 5.00% year-over-year drop in H1 2026, while the property sector remains a persistent drag with falling housing prices. On the external front, the offshore Yuan stabilized around $6.77 amid surging offshore deposits and currency internationalization efforts, and equity markets found support from a rotational shift into AI and technology stocks. However, supply-side vulnerabilities persist, highlighted by a 9.70% year-over-year plunge in June coal production due to stringent safety crackdowns, alongside lingering inflationary pressures from Middle East-driven energy and supply chain disruptions.
Next week, global markets will be driven by pivotal central bank policy decisions in the US, UK, and Japan, key macroeconomic data releases including GDP, inflation, and PMIs across the US, Eurozone, and China, major corporate earnings, and ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions that continue to elevate energy prices and inflation risks.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US major indices closed the week lower; the decline was led by technology and semiconductor stocks as investors questioned the sustainability of AI-related spending and rotated away from richly valued names ahead of major earnings. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices decreased by -0.38%, -2.13%, and –0.61% to 51,947.25, 24,975.82 and 7,411.98 respectively.
European indices also closed lower as oil prices surged alongside renewed inflation concerns, and a more hawkish ECB policy read-through, which hit tech and industrial-tech shares especially hard. Compared to last week, the German DAX, CAC40 and FTSE 100, increased by 1.08%, 0.40, 1.28% to 25,099, 8,372.28 10,736.23 respectively.
Asian markets were mixed, with Hong Kong and Japan showing different reactions to the global tech repricing as investors assessed AI valuation risks and ongoing global rate/inflation pressures. . Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index and Topix index increased by 1.63% and 2.35 to 24,963.23 and 4,011.31
Next week, markets are likely to stay volatile and cautiously defensive, with U.S. tech valuation concerns, oil-driven inflation fears, and ongoing geopolitical risk keeping investors focused on earnings and macro data.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Central Bank of Nigeria Holds Interest Rate at 26.50% Maintaining Tight Monetary Stance
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50% following the 306th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, as policymakers seek to sustain disinflation, stabilize the foreign exchange market and protect recent macroeconomic gains. The MPC also maintained the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45% for commercial banks and 16% for merchant banks, retained the 75% reserve requirement on non-Treasury Single Account (TSA) public sector deposits, and left the standing facilities corridor unchanged at +50/-450 basis points around the MPR. Governor Olayemi Cardoso cited heightened global uncertainty, particularly Middle East tensions, as justification for a cautious stance, signaling the apex bank’s commitment to balancing inflation control with economic growth despite ongoing concerns over elevated borrowing costs for businesses and investors.
Nigeria Hit with 12.50% United States Tariff as Washington Expands Trade Measures Covering 99.40% of Imports
Nigeria has been placed under a 12.50% tariff on exports to the United States, joining 38 countries affected by Washington’s latest trade measures targeting forced-labour concerns and perceived unfair trade practices. Announced by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the new tariff regime will cover 99.40% of United States imports and takes effect immediately, replacing a temporary 10.00% duty. Nigeria shares the higher tariff band with major economies including China, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, while countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada and India face a lower 10.00% rate. Although key products including oil and gas, fertilizer and selected food items remain exempt, the policy could increase costs for affected Nigerian exports and potentially impact trade flows. The move forms part of the Trump administration’s broader effort to rebuild its tariff framework after the United States Supreme Court struck down earlier reciprocal tariffs of 10%–50%, with the new measures imposed under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
Nigeria’s Cash in Circulation Falls to ₦5.52trillion as Central Bank of Nigeria Pushes Cashless Economy, While Money Supply Climbs to ₦133.25trillion
Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation (CIC) declined by ₦166.68billion month-on-month to ₦5.52trillion in June 2026 from ₦5.69trillion in May, while cash held outside the banking system fell to ₦4.92trillion from ₦5.19trillion, signaling increased cash returns to banks amid the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s cashless economy drive. Despite the monthly decline, currency in circulation remained 10.30% higher year-on-year than ₦5.01trillion recorded in June 2025. Meanwhile, bank reserves rose by ₦233.23billion (0.69%) to ₦34trillion, and broad money supply (M3) expanded by 3.11% month-on-month to ₦133.25trillion, up 13.59% year-on-year from ₦117.25trillion. Growth in money supply was driven by rising quasi-money, demand deposits, and net domestic.
Private Sector Credit Hits ₦83.26trillion Despite 26.50% Interest Rate as Central Bank of Nigeria Lending Expands by ₦7.13trillion Year-on-Year
Credit to Nigeria’s private sector increased to ₦83.26trillion in June 2026, rising by ₦2.22trillion (2.74%) from ₦81.04trillion in May and by ₦7.13trillion (9.37%) from ₦76.13trillion a year earlier, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data. The growth occurred despite the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) remaining elevated at 26.50%, indicating continued lending to businesses and other private-sector borrowers. Meanwhile, credit to government declined slightly to ₦40.03trillion from ₦40.38trillion, while net domestic credit rose by ₦1.87trillion to ₦123.29trillion and reserve money increased to ₦39.52trillion. The figures highlight resilient credit expansion within the private sector amid tight monetary conditions, although concerns remain over whether sufficient financing is reaching productive sectors critical for industrialization, job creation and long-term economic growth.
States Gain ₦219.72billion from New Value Added Tax (VAT) Formula as Allocations Jump 23.50% to ₦2.37trillion, while 16 States Adopt Harmonized Tax Regime
Nigerian states received ₦2.37trillion in Value Added Tax (VAT) allocations during the first half of 2026, representing a 23.50% increase from ₦1.92trillion in the corresponding period of 2025, driven by stronger VAT collections and a new revenue-sharing formula under the Nigeria Tax Act. Total VAT distributions rose 14.30% year-on-year to ₦4.39trillion, accounting for 31.20% of the ₦14.08trillion shared by the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). The revised formula reduced the Federal Government’s share from 15% to 10% and increased states’ allocation from 50% to 55%, effectively transferring about ₦219.72billion from the Federal Government to state governments. Separately, the Joint Revenue Board (JRB) disclosed that 16 of Nigeria’s 36 states have adopted a harmonized taxes and levies framework that cuts multiple tax heads to just 9.00, a reform aimed at eliminating double taxation, improving ease of doing business, enhancing transparency, and supporting ongoing nationwide tax administration reforms.
Looking ahead, Nigeria’s domestic economy is expected to remain broadly stable as CBN assesses the sustainability of recent macroeconomic gains, as priority shifts to FX stability with any rate cuts dependent on sustained disinflation, stronger external reserves, fiscal reforms, and continued improvement in economic growth and investor confidence.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market recorded a bearish performance during the week, as weaker demand and increased profit-taking across the yield curve prompted investors to reduce exposure to Nigeria’s dollar-denominated debt instruments. Market sentiment was pressured by persistent global uncertainties, elevated United States Treasury yields, and risk-off positioning across emerging and frontier markets. Consequently, the average sovereign Eurobond yield rose by 9 basis points week-on-week to 6.98%, reflecting softer bond prices and a more cautious investor stance.
Next week, Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market is expected to maintain a cautious tone as Investors monitor domestic macroeconomic developments, global interest rate expectations, movements in United States Treasury yields, and evolving geopolitical risks. However, continued improvements in Nigeria’s external position and macroeconomic fundamentals could provide some support to market sentiment.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold closed the week at approximately $4,052/oz, remaining above the key $4,000 level. Prices were supported by geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation concerns, although expectations of higher-for-longer United States interest rates continued to limit stronger upside momentum. Investors also monitored the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting for further policy direction.
OIL
Oil prices posted strong weekly gains despite a pullback on Friday. Brent crude settled at $98.38 per barrel, while WTI closed at $90.47 per barrel. The rally was driven by escalating Middle East tensions, concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, and broader fears of tighter global oil supplies. However, renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran tempered gains towards the end of the week.
ETF
Major Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) delivered mixed performance during the week. Energy-focused ETFs outperformed on the back of rising crude prices, while broader equity ETFs experienced modest pressure amid inflation and interest rate concerns. Meanwhile, precious metals ETFs remained relatively resilient, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) closing at approximately $371.90 as investors maintained exposure to safe-haven assets
Gold’s near-term outlook will be shaped by United States inflation data, labour market conditions, and Federal Reserve policy expectations. While elevated interest rates could weigh on bullion, ongoing geopolitical risks may continue to provide support. Oil prices are expected to remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, the security of key shipping routes, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand trends. ETF flows are likely to favour energy-related funds, quality equities, and defensive investment strategies as investors navigate an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
DOMESTIC MARKET
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at a credit of ₦1.81trillion, a decline of ₦2.82trillion owing to the Cash Reserve Ratio Maintenance carried out by CBN previous Friday. Tuesday saw a decline of ₦165.22billion while Wednesday saw an improvement of ₦2.511trillion to ₦4.16trillion following OMO Maturity into the system on Tuesday and FAAC payment. Thursday also saw declines of ₦325.84billion to ₦3.83trillion driven by FGN Bond Auction settlement on Wednesday. Friday opened with a credit of ₦3.76trillion, a marginal decline of ₦72.64billion. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Next week, attention would shift to the Nigeria Treasury Bills Market, where the DMO is offering a total of ₦700billion across Tenors.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded a bullish performance as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 1.60% and 1.61% to close at 247,357.40 and ₦159.59trillion respectively, compared to 243,462.13 and ₦157.06trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.43 billion shares worth ₦306.14billion in 255,589 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.82 billion shares valued at ₦182.50billion that exchanged hands last week in 226,729 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed positively, as the Banking, Insurance, Oil and Gas and Industrial Goods indices closed positive, increasing by 8.35%, 3.86%, 0.11%, and 5.01% while the Consumer Goods, and index decreased by 3.76% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were UPDC Real Estate Investment Trust and First Holdco PLC while Mecure Industries PLC and Royal Exchange PLC topped the losers list.
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
| Security | Ex-Div Date | Last Close Price (₦) | Dividend (₦) | Bonus | Ex-Div Price (₦) |
| Africa Prudential PLC | 21/07/2026 | 13.60 | 0.10 | NIL | 13.50 |
| Transcorp Power PLC | 21/07/2026 | 245.50 | 1.50 | NIL | 244.00 |
| Mutual Benefits Assurance PLC | 22/07/2025 | 3.43 | 0.04 | NIL | 3.39 |
| Transcorp Hotel PLC | 23/07/2026 | 242.00 | 0.10 | NIL | 241.90 |
| Transnational Corporation PLC | 24/07/2026 | 40.30 | 0.40 | NIL | 39.90 |
SUSPENSIONS
Aluminium Extrusion Plc Suspended from NGX for Late Financial Filing
Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) has suspended trading in the shares of Aluminium Extrusion Plc effective 22 July 2026 for failing to file its Audited Financial Statements for the year ended 31 December 2025 within the stipulated cure period. The suspension was implemented in line with NGX’s Default Filing Rules, which require the Exchange to suspend trading in an issuer’s securities where the required accounts are not submitted by the deadline. Trading in the company’s shares will remain suspended until the outstanding financial statements are filed and compliance is achieved.
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTINGS
Linkage Assurance Plc has listed 12.32 billion additional ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), effective 23 July 2026. The new shares were issued through the company’s Rights Issue at ₦1.32 per share, offered on the basis of two (2) new shares for every three (3) existing shares held as of 22 January 2026.
Following the listing, Linkage Assurance’s total issued and fully paid-up share capital has increased by 66.67%, from 18.48 billion shares to 30.80 billion shares, strengthening the company’s equity base and expanding its shares outstanding on the NGX.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to maintain a cautious bullish outlook as Investors interest in Fundamentally sound stocks increase along side positioning for the ongoing corporate earnings season.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 24/07/2026 | 17/07/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,362.09 | 1,380.18 | -1.31% |
| Parallel | 1,390.00 | 1,400.00 | -0.71% |
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| USD/NGN | ₦1,362.09 | -1.32% |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1,827.02 | -1.51% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1,559.29 | -1.15% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦972.28 | -1.15% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| UPDCREIT | 10.65 | 14.20 | 3.55 | 33.33% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 95.95 | 120.50 | 24.55 | 25.59% |
| UNILEVER | 124.00 | 147.95 | 23.95 | 19.31% |
| CADBURY | 57.00 | 67.50 | 10.50 | 18.42% |
| MANSARD | 11.20 | 13.20 | 2.00 | 17.86% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| MECURE | 85.45 | 62.40 | -23.05 | -26.97% |
| ROYALEX | 1.48 | 1.29 | -0.19 | -12.84% |
| TRIPPLEG | 3.89 | 3.41 | -0.48 | -12.34% |
| SUNUASSUR | 4.00 | 3.60 | -0.40 | -10.00% |
| BUAFOODS | 939.00 | 845.10 | -93.90 | -10.00% |
DISCLAIMER
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