GLOBAL ECONOMY
US economic activity remained resilient, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising to 56 points in August, driven by stronger services activity as the Services PMI increased to 56.80, while Manufacturing eased to 53.20. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000, signaling continued labour-market strength, while industrial production and manufacturing output both rose 0.20% in July. Inflation pressures remained elevated amid higher energy costs, although import prices declined 0.40% Month-on-Month (MoM) in July. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.74%, reflecting concerns over fiscal deficits, debt issuance and persistent inflation. Overall, resilient services and labour-market conditions continue to support growth, but inflation risks, fiscal pressures and elevated long-term yields remain key constraints on monetary easing.
UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerated to 2.90% Year-on-Year (YoY) in July 2026, driven by a 13% energy price cap hike, while Core inflation held firm at 2.60%. The Composite PMI remained resilient at 52.50, as Services PMI expansion to 52.80 offset a Manufacturing PMI cooling to 51.50, although retail sales volumes contracted 0.50% MoM and rose 1.60% YoY following earlier demand pull-forward. The combination of sticky core inflation, weakening productivity, and elevated input costs implies the Bank of England will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance to anchor inflation expectations.
Eurozone headline inflation accelerated to 2.90% YoY in July 2026, with Core inflation rising to 2.50%, driven by a 10.30% surge in energy prices and sticky services inflation at 3.30%. Concurrently, the Composite PMI expanded to 52.10 and Manufacturing PMI reached 52.80, supported by a resurgence in German production, while negotiated wage growth moderated to 2.44% YoY in Q2 and Construction output contracted 0.70% YoY in June as the current account surplus widened to €46.90billion. This combination indicates resilient aggregate demand and export recovery, though underlying cost pressures remain firmly above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target despite moderating wage dynamics. Consequently, the persistence of above-target core inflation alongside robust manufacturing activity implies the ECB will likely maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance, keeping further rate hikes on the table to anchor inflation expectations amid ongoing geopolitical energy risks.
China’s 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPRs) remained at record lows of 3.00% and 3.50% for 15 consecutive months. Concurrently, July 2026 macroeconomic indicators softened, with industrial production expanding 4.50% YoY (manufacturing 5.50%, mining -4.20%), retail sales rising a mere 0.60% YoY dragged down by a 17.00% plunge in auto sales, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate ticking up to 5.20%. This combination of accommodative monetary policy, sluggish domestic consumption, and uneven industrial output highlights persistent structural headwinds and weak domestic demand despite resilient export-linked manufacturing. Consequently, expectations for targeted fiscal and monetary stimulus are elevated ahead of the upcoming National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, as policymakers face mounting pressure to stabilize the property sector and catalyze a broader economic recovery.
Next week’s macroeconomic outlook will be shaped by US-Iran tensions, Federal Reserve System and ECB policy signals, and key growth indicators, with investors tracking PMI data across major economies.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities ended the week lower as weaker consumer data and concerns over slowing economic momentum weighed on investor sentiment, leading to declines across the major indices. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 decreased by 0.85%, 2.05%, 1.43%, to close at 53,277.01, 26,180.46 and 7,674.30 respectively.
European equities ended the week mixed, as gains in financial and insurance stocks were offset by weakness in technology and pharmaceutical shares. Germany’s DAX reached a fresh intraday record high during the week, supported by strong performances in defence, aerospace, software and insurance stocks, but later retreated amid profit-taking and broader market weakness to close below the previous week’s level. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 increased by 0.62% to close at 10,816.56, while the CAC 40 and German DAX declined by 1.76% and 1.15% to 8,484.43 and 26,136.56, respectively.
Asian equities closed the week mixed, with Japanese stocks advancing on the back of softer US inflation data and renewed interest in artificial intelligence-related technology shares, while Hong Kong equities remained pressured by weakness in technology stocks and concerns over slowing economic growth. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 3.10% to 4,067.29, while the Topix Index increased by 3.00% to 26,009.46.
Next week, global equities are likely to remain range-bound next week as investors balance slowing US growth concerns against resilient corporate earnings, strength in selected European sectors, and continued demand for AI-related technology stocks in Asia.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s headline inflation falls to 15.43% in July
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined further to 15.43% in July 2026, representing a 0.48% decrease from the 15.91% recorded in June. Despite the decline in the year-on-year inflation rate, the CPI increased to 145.3 points in July from 143.0 points in June, representing a 2.2-point increase during the month. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation stood at 1.57% in July 2026, down from 1.66% in June, indicating that the average price level increased at a slower rate during the month. Urban inflation stood at 16.12% year-on-year in July 2026, while the month-on-month rate declined to 1.90% from 2.13% in June. The rural inflation rate stood at 13.77% year-on-year in July Food inflation stood at 20.31% year-on-year in July 2026, down from 26.20% recorded in July 2025. 2026, below the urban rate during the period. Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 14.97% year-on-year in July 2026. The development means that while the overall pace of annual price increases continued to slow, consumers faced a much faster increase in food prices during July compared with the previous month.
Subsidy removal, FX reforms yielded ₦15.8tn in 30 months – FG
The Federal Government have come out to say that the removal of the petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market generated ₦15.80trillion in additional resources for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025, with states and local governments receiving the larger share. The government, however, clarified that the subsidy savings did not appear in the Federation Account as a separate line item, as the gains from the reforms were reflected through higher revenue collections resulting from exchange-rate adjustments and the removal of subsidy-related distortions. The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed this at a media conference on Nigeria’s reform scorecard, stating that the combined impact of petrol subsidy removal and foreign exchange reforms increased the naira value of revenues accruing to the Federation. According to Oyedele, the additional fiscal resources were generated not only through subsidy removal but also through the foreign exchange reforms.
Energy inflation drops to 4.37% in July, lowest in four months
Nigeria’s energy inflation rate fell sharply to 4.37 % in July 2026, its lowest level in four months, according to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure declined from 9.83% in June, representing a 5.46% decrease and marking the lowest rate since April, when energy inflation stood at 4.50%. Energy inflation had risen from 11.20% in January to 12.57% in February before moderating to 9.89% in March, 4.50% in April and then increasing to 5.73% in May and 9.83% in June. Despite the moderation, energy costs remain a significant driver of inflationary pressures for households and businesses, with a recent CBN survey showing energy costs recorded the highest inflation perception score among firms at 74.10 points and households at 61.90 points. The decline in energy inflation comes amid continued changes in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market, including lower PMS prices from the Dangote Refinery and proposed regulations by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) aimed at preventing coordinated fuel pricing and other anti-competitive practices.
CBN data shows net FX flow drops 29% to $4.94 billion
Nigeria’s net foreign exchange (FX) flow stood at $4.94billion in March 2026, representing a 38.00% increase from $3.58billion recorded in March 2025, despite a 29.00% MoM decline from $6.98billion in February 2026. According to the CBN’s Q1 2026 Statistical Bulletin, total FX inflows stood at $10.49billion in March, while outflows- rose sharply to $5.54billion, resulting in the net FX flow of $4.94billion, the lowest since December 2025 when it stood at $4.49billion. Total inflows declined from $12.41billion in January and $9.49billion in February, while FX outflows increased significantly from $2.50billion in February to $5.54billion in March. Net FX flow through the CBN turned negative at -$1.66billion in March, compared with positive flows of $3.09billion in January and $1.34billion in February, while net FX flow through autonomous sources increased to $6.60billion from $5.64billion in February. Despite the monthly decline, the March figure remained above the $3.58billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. The latest data indicate increased FX outflows and weaker flows through the CBN, although stronger autonomous inflows continued to support overall FX liquidity.
Next week, expect attention to center on whether the Naira’s recent strength amid easing inflation while investors monitor Oil prices, FX liquidity and global signals that could influence CBN rate-cut expectations.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market was mixed but broadly stable, with early offshore buying supporting sentiment before elevated U.S. Treasury yields and global risk concerns prompted some profit-taking. The US average sovereign Eurobond yield rose marginally by 1bps to 6.89%. Stronger FX reserves of about $52billion, naira appreciation and firm oil prices provided support, while the 30-year US Treasury yield at 5.31% capped gains.
Next week, Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds are expected to remain broadly stable, with US Treasury yields, oil prices and global risk appetite driving near-term movements.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold recorded strong gains during the week, with spot prices advancing to approximately $4,600/oz, supported by softer United States inflation expectations, declining rate hike expectations, and sustained demand for safe-haven assets. Continued central bank accumulation and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, further reinforced investor appetite for the precious metal and supported bullish market sentiment.
OIL
Oil prices moved higher over the week, with Brent Crude trading around US$93.50/bbl and WTI near US$86.50/bbl. The market remained driven by ongoing disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, concerns over constrained global supply, and significant inventory drawdowns highlighted by the International Energy Agency (IEA). While fears of weaker global demand persisted, supply-side risks and geopolitical uncertainty kept a firm risk premium embedded in crude prices.
ETF
Commodity-focused ETFs delivered positive performance during the week, led by precious metals funds as rising gold prices attracted defensive inflows. Gold-backed ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) benefited from renewed investor interest, supported by increased allocations to safe-haven assets and improving fund flows. Energy ETFs also gained on higher crude oil prices, although performance remained sensitive to ongoing volatility in global energy markets and geopolitical developments.
Gold is expected to remain bullish, supported by safe-haven demand, central bank purchase and expectations of accommodative US monetary policy.Oil prices may remain elevated amid geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, although demand concerns could limit further gains. Commodity and gold-backed ETFs may attract continued inflows, while energy ETFs are likely to remain volatile amid crude oil price movements.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money-market liquidity remained in surplus during the week, although it tightened toward its close following Treasury-bill and OMO settlements. System liquidity opened at approximately ₦4.35trillion on Monday, rose to about ₦6.47trillion by Wednesday following OMO-maturity inflows, and subsequently declined to ₦3.57trillion on Friday after liquidity was withdrawn through Thursday’s NTB and OMO settlements. Across the week, liquidity was supported by approximately ₦2.48trillion in OMO maturities, while around ₦1.45trillion from NTB sales and ₦2.60trillion from OMO settlements were absorbed from the system.
Despite the large liquidity swings, funding conditions remained broadly stable. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) stayed at 22.00%, while the overnight rate eased slightly to approximately 22.25% by Friday; the average funding cost was reported at around 22.13%, indicating that the market remained comfortable but responsive to CBN liquidity-management operations.
Next week liquidity is expected to remain ample but volatile next week as the CBN balances OMO maturities with sterilization, keeping short-term rates around current levels.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded a bearish performance as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 1.35% and 1.33% to close the week at 239,351.16 and ₦154.53trillion respectively, compared to 242,618.20 and ₦156.62trillion last week.
A total turnover of 6.24billion shares worth ₦157.76billion in 186,496 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 12.15billion shares valued at ₦176.05billion that exchanged hands last week in 261,869 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed negatively, with the Banking, Insurance and Oil & Gas indices declining by 2.92%, 3.75%, and 4.64%, respectively, while the Consumer Goods Index gained 0.05% and the Industrial Goods Index remained unchanged at 0.00%.
Notable gainers this week were HALDANE MCCALL PLC and TRANS-NATIONWIDE EXPRESS PLC, while INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE PLC and FORTIS GLOBAL INSURANCE PLC topped the losers list.
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
| Security | Ex-Div Date | Last Close Price | Dividend | Bonus | Ex-Div Price |
| PRESCO PLC | 17/08/2025 | ₦2,055.30 | ₦10.00 | NIL | ₦2,045.30 |
| CUSTODIAN INVESTMENT PLC | 18/08/2026 | ₦72.10 | ₦0.25 | NIL | ₦71.85 |
| MTN Nigeria Plc | 21/08/2026 | ₦805.00 | ₦26.00 | NIL | ₦779.00 |
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTING
Veritas Kapital Assurance Plc: Listing of Veritas Kapital Assurance Plc’s Private Placement of 15,000,000,000 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo each at N1.00 Per Share Trading Licence Holders are hereby notified that an additional 15,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of Veritas Kapital Assurance Plc (the Company) were on Thursday, 20 August 2026, listed on the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). The additional shares listed on NGX arose from the Company’s Private Placement of 15,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N1.00 per share. With the listing of the additional shares, the total issued and fully paid-up shares of Veritas Kapital Assurance Plc have now increased from 13,866,666,666 to 28,866,666,666 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to remain cautious as profit-taking activities continues.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$ | 21/08/2026 | 14/08/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,346.49 | 1,357.61 | +0.82% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,420.00 | -1.41% |
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1,890.00 | +0.15% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1,590.00 | -1.43% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦995.00 | -0.87% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| HMCALL | 2.91 | 3.85 | 0.94 | 32.30% |
| TRANSEXPR | 2.84 | 3.3 | 0.46 | 16.20% |
| DANGSUGAR | 64.55 | 67.9 | 3.35 | 5.19% |
| CADBURY | 62 | 64.9 | 2.9 | 4.68% |
| UACN | 170 | 177.85 | 7.85 | 4.62% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTENEGINS | 5.32 | 3.87 | -1.45 | -27.26% |
| FTI | 2.63 | 2 | -0.63 | -23.95% |
| ROYALEX | 1.19 | 0.97 | -0.22 | -18.49% |
| REDSTAREX | 18 | 14.7 | -3.3 | -18.33% |
| UPDC | 3.75 | 3.35 | -0.4 | -10.67% |
DISCLAIMER
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