GLOBAL ECONOMY
US Inflation moderated for a second straight month, with headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 3.40% year-on-year (YoY) from 3.50%, core inflation easing to 2.50%, as concerns over further Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening eased. Producer price inflation also softened, with annual PPI declining to 4.70% from 5.50%, while monthly producer prices were unchanged. Initial jobless claims increased to 209,000, though continuing claims fell to 1.78 million, indicating ongoing labor market resilience. Federal budget deficit widened to $432billion in July from $291billion a year earlier, while Fitch affirmed the US sovereign rating at AA+ (Stable Outlook) but warned that fiscal deficits could average 7.40% of GDP in 2026-2027.
The UK Q2 GDP expanded by 0.40% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 1.20% YoY, supported by stronger services activity, business investment and household spending, while June GDP rose 0.30% month-on-month (MoM) as warmer weather and World Cup-related spending boosted activity. The UK trade deficit widened to £5.54billion in June from £3.46billion as exports fell 2.80% to £80.21billion, outpacing a 0.20% decline in imports to £85.74billion. Industrial activity remained under pressure, with industrial production and manufacturing output declining 0.20% and 0.50% MoM respectively, while construction orders plunged 18.10% year-on-year, marking the steepest contraction since Q4 2023.
The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.40% QoQ in Q2 2026, its strongest quarterly growth since Q1 2025, up from flat growth in the previous quarter, while annual GDP growth accelerated to 1% YoY from 0.50%, supported by strong AI-related investment, resilient government spending, and one-off factors that helped offset the impact of higher energy prices and the Iran conflict. Among major economies, Spain led growth at 0.70% QoQ and 2.70% YoY, followed by the Netherlands (0.40% QoQ, 1.30% YoY), while Germany, Italy, and France each recorded positive quarterly growth of 0.20%. Employment increased by 0.10% QoQ to 176.58 million people, marking the 21st consecutive quarter of job growth, while annual employment growth held steady at 0.50%, supported by strong hiring in Spain despite continued declines in Germany.
China’s inflationary pressures softened further in July, with annual CPI easing to 0.50% and consumer prices falling 0.10% MoM, reflecting continued weakness in food prices, softer non-food inflation, and subdued demand conditions. Producer price inflation also moderated to 3.50% from 4.10% in June, as easing energy costs and weak domestic demand reduced price pressures, although input costs remained elevated. China’s current account surplus widened sharply to a record $195.10billion in Q2 2026 from $128.70billion a year earlier, driven by a goods surplus of $278.90billion as exports rose despite weaker domestic demand. Overall, the data point to persistently weak domestic demand and limited inflationary momentum, reinforcing concerns about China’s sluggish economic recovery.
Next week’s macroeconomic outlook will be shaped by US-Iran tensions, Fed and European Central Bank (ECB) policy signals, and key growth indicators, with investors tracking PMI data across major economies.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US Indices ended the week mixed with major-cap stocks closing slightly lower as weaker consumer data raised concerns about slowing economic momentum. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones index decreased by 0.56% to close at 53,732.41 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.14% and 0.36% to close at 26,729.16 and 7,785.76 respectively.
European equities ended the week mixed with some major indices near record levels as technology and pharmaceutical stocks retreated, while financial and insurance shares advanced. Germany’s DAX outperformed, rising to a fresh record high as defence, aerospace, software and insurance stocks gained. Compared to last week, the German DAX increased by 0.46% to close at 26,440.31 while the CAC40 and FTSE 100 decreased by 0.90% and 1.38% to 8,636.80 and 10,750.11 respectively.
Asian equities were mixed as Japanese shares extended their rally supported by softer US inflation and renewed demand for artificial intelligence-linked technology stocks while Hong Kong stocks remained under pressure as technology counters weakened, investors awaited key corporate earnings and Hong Kong’s second-quarter economic growth slowed. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index decreased by 2.15% to 25,116.85 while the Topix index increased by 3% to 4,197.20
Next week, global equities are expected to trade cautiously amid economic data, central-bank guidance and geopolitical developments. Focus will remain on US labour data, European growth and inflation, China’s policy direction, Japan’s macroeconomic releases and artificial intelligence-linked stocks.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Lagos Overtakes Oil States as Federation Account Allocation Committee Disbursements to States Rise 25.77% to ₦4.54Trillion in H1 2026
Nigeria’s Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements to states increased by 25.77% year-on-year to ₦4.54trillion in the first half of 2026, with the top 10 states receiving a combined ₦2.16trillion, up 23.97% from ₦1.74trillion in the same period of 2025. Lagos State emerged as the largest recipient with ₦365.78billion, a remarkable 54.39% increase from ₦236.92billion, driven largely by its massive ₦344.06billion share of Value Added Tax (VAT) revenues despite receiving no derivation funds. Oil-producing states including Delta (₦331.43billion), Rivers (₦295.99billion), Akwa Ibom (₦270.27billion) and Bayelsa (₦266.72billion) remained major beneficiaries due to derivation revenues, with the top 10 states accounting for 92.66% of all derivation allocations nationwide. Overall, the figures highlight a growing shift in revenue distribution dynamics, where strong economic activity and VAT generation are increasingly rivaling oil production as key drivers of state revenues.
Nigeria Avoided ₦53trillion Fuel Subsidy Burden as Tax Chief Warns Naira Could Have Hit ₦3,500/$
The Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Zacch Adedeji, has said Nigeria’s petrol subsidy bill could have surged to ₦53trillion under current market conditions, while the naira could have depreciated to around ₦3,500/$ if the government had not removed fuel subsidies and implemented foreign exchange reforms. According to Adedeji, the subsidy regime was fiscally unsustainable because it was effectively financed through borrowing, while also intensifying demand for foreign exchange needed for fuel imports. He argued that ending the subsidy in May 2023 helped reduce pressure on public finances, improve foreign exchange market conditions, attract investment, and encourage private sector participation in domestic refining. Although the projections represent a hypothetical scenario rather than actual costs, the comments underscore the government’s position that subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms were critical to preventing a severe fiscal and currency crisis despite the short-term impact on households and fuel prices.
Nigeria’s Exports to China Surge 80% to $2.30Billion as Zero-Tariff Policy Drives Trade Boom, Bilateral Trade Hits $18Billion
Nigeria’s exports to China jumped 80% year-on-year to $2.30billion in the first half of 2026, driven by China’s expanded zero-tariff policy for African countries and stronger demand for Nigerian commodities. According to Chinese Ambassador Yu Dunhai, monthly export growth exceeded 40% in both May and June following the policy’s implementation on May 1, 2026. Total Nigeria-China trade rose 35% to $18billion during the period, underscoring deepening economic ties between both countries. The tariff-free initiative, which grants duty-free access across 100% of tariff lines for African nations with diplomatic relations with Beijing, has also helped boost overall African exports to China by an estimated 6%, contributing to a record $207billion in China-Africa trade in the first half of 2026. Despite the export surge, Nigeria continues to run a significant trade deficit with China, as imports of machinery, electronics, industrial equipment and manufactured goods still far exceed Nigerian exports.
United Kingdom Imports More Refined Fuel Than Crude From Nigeria as Energy Trade Shifts, Despite 9.30% Drop in Nigerian Exports
The United Kingdom (UK) imported £674.50million worth of refined petroleum products from Nigeria in the 12 months to March 2026, making refined fuel Nigeria’s largest export to the UK and overtaking crude oil for the first time. Refined products accounted for 47.50% of total UK goods imports from Nigeria, compared with £438.90million (30.90%) for crude oil and £179.30million (12.60%) for natural gas. The shift comes as UK crude oil imports from Nigeria plunged 64.30% year-on-year, highlighting growing value-added exports from Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. Despite this milestone, total UK-Nigeria trade fell 3.40% to £7.30billion, with UK imports from Nigeria declining 9.30% to £2.00billion. The UK nevertheless widened its trade surplus with Nigeria to £3.30billion from £3.10billion, while Nigeria remained the UK’s 38th largest trading partner, accounting for 0.40% of total UK trade.
Looking ahead Investors attention will center on the upcoming National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for further confirmation of Nigeria’s disinflation trend following the 15.91% inflation rate recorded in June 2026.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market traded largely sideways during the week, with subdued activity across most maturities reflecting a broadly balanced market. Stable investor sentiment and the absence of significant market-moving catalysts supported steady demand for Nigeria’s dollar-denominated debt securities, resulting in minimal movement across the yield curve. Consequently, the average sovereign Eurobond yield remained unchanged at 6.88%, as investors maintained a cautious stance amid evolving global fixed-income dynamics.
Next week, the Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market is expected to remain stable, with investor sentiment likely to be supported by Nigeria’s external position and relatively attractive yields. However, developments in global interest rate expectations, oil price movements, and broader risk sentiment will continue to influence trading activity and yield direction across the curve.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold strengthened during the week, closing at $4,375.50/oz, supported by sustained central bank purchases, contained United States inflation data, and continued safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainties. Expectations of a relatively accommodative Federal Reserve stance also boosted investor sentiment toward bullion
OIL
Oil prices advanced during the week, with Brent Crude closing at US$88.60/bbl and WTI Crude at US$82.40/bbl. Prices were driven higher by renewed concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, tighter global supply expectations, and International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts of a widening supply deficit, although concerns about global growth continued to moderate gains.
ETF
Commodity and precious metals ETFs outperformed broader market funds during the week. Gold-backed ETFs, including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), benefited from rising bullion prices and increased demand for defensive assets, while energy-focused ETFs remained volatile in line with fluctuations in crude oil prices.
Gold is expected to remain supported by Central Bank demand, geopolitical risks, and expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy environment, although stronger economic data could limit further gains. Oil prices are likely to remain volatile as investors monitor developments in the Middle East, OPEC+ policy actions, and global demand conditions. Consequently, precious metals and selective energy ETFs may continue to attract investors seeking defensive portfolio positioning.
DOMESTIC MARKET
Central Bank of Nigeria Opens Open Market Operations to Individuals, Eases Bank Funding Rules While Holding Interest Rate at 26.50%
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has introduced major liquidity management reforms by removing restrictions that prevented banks from accessing its Standing Lending Facility (SLF) after participating in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) and government securities auctions, while also reopening Tenored Repo Operations for periods of 4 to 90 days. In a landmark move, the apex bank expanded access to Open Market Operations (OMO) auctions to individuals, companies, and non-bank financial institutions, ending banks’ near-exclusive access to the high-yield instruments, which recently cleared at rates between 19.90% and 21.90%. The changes come as the CBN maintains a tight monetary stance, keeping its benchmark interest rate at 26.50%, the Standing Lending Facility rate at approximately 27.00%, the Standing Deposit Facility rate at approximately 22.00%, and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for deposit money banks at 45.00%. The reforms are expected to improve market liquidity, strengthen monetary policy transmission, enhance banks’ funding flexibility, and broaden investor participation in Nigeria’s fixed-income market without lowering interest rates.
Federal Government Cuts August Bond Offer to ₦1.10trillion Despite ₦1.74trillion Investor Demand at Previous Auction
The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) has reduced its August 2026 bond offer to ₦1.10trillion from ₦1.20trillion in July, despite strong investor demand that saw subscriptions reach ₦1.74trillion, exceeding the previous offer by ₦540billion. According to the Debt Management Office (DMO), the August issuance comprises three reopened bonds, including ₦750billion in the 15-year 15.45% FGN June 2038 bond, ₦250billion in the 10-year 22.60% FGN January 2035 bond, and ₦100billion in the 20-year 16.2499% FGN April 2037 bond, with the auction scheduled for 17 August 2026. The move follows robust demand in recent auctions, with bond subscriptions rising from ₦516.17billion in May to ₦1.41trillion in June, an increase of 173.80%, while allotments nearly doubled from ₦614.51billion to ₦1.22trillion. The sustained oversubscription highlights strong investor appetite for government securities amid elevated yields and the Federal Government’s ongoing domestic financing programme.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at a credit of ₦4.35trillion, an increase of ₦272.88illion due to previous Friday’s 13% derivation inflows into the system. Tuesday saw a marginal decline of ₦23.66illion to open the day at ₦4.33trillion while Wednesday saw an increase of ₦2.14trillion to ₦6.47trillion due to inflow from OMO Maturity. Thursday saw a decline of ₦383.81billion to open at ₦6.08trillion and Friday opened with a credit of ₦3.57trillion, a decline of ₦2.52trillion attributed to Thursday’s NTB and OMO auction Settlement. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Next week attention would shift to the Bond market where the DMO is offering a total of ₦1.10trillion across the 15.45% FGN June 2038 bond, 22.60% FGN January 2035 bond, and 16.2499% FGN April 2037 bond.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded a bearish performance as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 1.20% and 1.19% to close at 242,618.20 and ₦156.62trillion respectively, compared to 245,573.60 and ₦158.13trillion last week.
A total turnover of 12.15 billion shares worth ₦176.06billion in 224,146 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 5.36billion shares valued at ₦139.05billion that exchanged hands last week in 261,869 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed negatively, as the Banking, Oil and Gas, Industrial Goods, Insurance and Consumer Goods indices closed negatively, decreasing by -1.48%, -0.74%, -1.22%, -2.72% and -6.72% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Trans-Nationwide Express PLC and International Energy Insurance PLC, while Ava Capital PLC and Unilever Nigeria PLC topped the losers list.
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
| Security | Ex-Div Date | Last Close Price | Dividend | Bonus | Ex-Div Price |
| PRESCO PLC | 10/08/2025 | ₦2,070.00 | ₦14.66 | NIL | ₦2,055.34 |
| IKEJA HOTEL PLC | 10/08/2025 | ₦47.00 | ₦0.03 | NIL | ₦46.97 |
| THE INITIATES PLC | 11/08/2026 | ₦27.00 | ₦0.20 | NIL | ₦26.80 |
| HBM NIGERIA PLC | 13/08/2026 | ₦350.00 | ₦16.00 | NIL | ₦334.00 |
| SEPLAT ENERGY PLC | 14/08/2026 | ₦11,363.90 | ₦163.27 | NIL | ₦11,200.63 |
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTING
Lasaco Assurance Plc: Listing of 9,236,321,546 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo Each at N2.00 Per Share.
Trading Licence Holders are hereby notified that an additional 9,236,321,546 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of Lasaco Assurance Plc (the Company) were on Wednesday, 12 August 2026, listed on the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
The additional shares arose from the Company’s Rights Issue of 9,236,321,546 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of five (5) new ordinary shares for every existing six (6) ordinary shares held as at the close of business on Friday, 20 February 2026.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to remain cautious as profit-taking activities continues.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 14/08/2026 | 07/08/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,357.61 | 1,365.69 | -0.59% |
| Parallel | 1,420.00 | 1,420.00 | 0.00% |
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1,887.13 | +0.72% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1,613.06 | +0.50% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦1,003.76 | +0.76% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| TRANSEXPR | 2.15 | 2.84 | 0.69 | 32.09% |
| INTENEGINS | 4.04 | 5.32 | 1.28 | 31.68% |
| SOVRENINS | 1.67 | 1.90 | 0.23 | 13.77% |
| CHAMS | 4.08 | 4.58 | 0.50 | 12.25% |
| CWG | 19.50 | 21.40 | 1.90 | 9.74% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| AVACAP | 11.00 | 7.20 | -3.80 | -34.55% |
| UNILEVER | 145.95 | 118.30 | -27.65 | -18.94% |
| ZAAI | 21.55 | 18.30 | -3.25 | -15.08% |
| THOMASWY | 3.21 | 2.75 | -0.46 | -14.33% |
| DANGSUGAR | 73.00 | 64.55 | -8.45 | -11.58% |
DISCLAIMER
This publication is produced by Alpha10 Group solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Alpha10 Group may invest substantially in securities of companies using information contained herein and may also perform or seek to perform investment services for companies mentioned herein. Whilst utmost care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Group for actions taken as a result of information provided in this publication.
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