GLOBAL ECONOMY
US July’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 0.20% month-on-month against expectations of 0.10%, while annual headline and core inflation held firm at 3.70% and 3.30%, respectively, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain elevated. The economy expanded at an annualized 1.50% in Q2 2026, slowing from 2.10% in Q1 2026, although strong consumer spending (3.40%) and fixed investment growth (7%), supported by an 8.50% surge in non-residential investment amid robust artificial intelligence demand, helped cushion weakness from declining government expenditure (-1%) and a widening trade deficit as imports jumped 12.50%. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh warned that underlying inflation is not slowing, reinforcing the Central Bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting despite growing policy debate.
The British Pound weakened toward £1/$1.35 as lower Brent crude prices eased inflation concerns and pushed expectations for the next Bank of England (BoE) rate hike into 2027. Markets are currently pricing only 24bps of tightening by December, reflecting expectations that the BoE will keep rates at 3.75% amid a sluggish labour market and weakening economic momentum.
The Euro weakened to €1/$1.16, its lowest level since August 19, as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh boosted demand for the US Dollar. In the Eurozone, stronger inflation data reinforced expectations of further European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with inflation rising to 2.70% in France and 4.50% in Spain, prompting markets to price the ECB deposit rate at 2.80% by March 2027 from 2.25% currently. ECB minutes signaled that July’s pause was not the end of the tightening cycle, while improving economic sentiment.
The offshore Yuan weakened to around ¥6.72/$1 amid growing economic uncertainty and rising external pressures, including potential US sanctions on Chinese banks and reports of a proposed 7.50% US tariff on Chinese goods. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced up to ¥600billion in daily reverse repo operations and a ¥500billion one-year Medium-Term Lending Facility (MLF) injection to support liquidity. Fiscal spending rose 1.30% year-on-year to ¥16.29trillion in the first seven months of 2026, led by a 6.20% increase in central government expenditure, while industrial profits climbed 17.60% to ¥4.58trillion, supported by strong gains in mining (34.90%) and manufacturing (18.80%).
Next week, investors will focus on US labour market data, including the Employment Situation Report and ISM PMIs, alongside Eurozone inflation and unemployment figures, China’s August PMI readings, and key economic releases from Japan.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities ended Friday slightly higher retracing from initial gains after The Fed Chair Kevin Warsh maintained a hawkish stance on inflation, lifting expectations that monetary policy could remain restrictive. Technology shares came under pressure, with Nvidia declining after its results, while gains in selected large-cap stocks provided some support. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 0.53%, 0.85% and 0.48%, to close at 53,559.99, 26,402.44 and 7,711.48 respectively.
European equities advanced on Friday as Autos, Banks, Insurers, Utilities and Software stocks gained. Germany’s DAX closed at a fresh record high, led by strong advances in BMW, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, while the FTSE 100 was supported by financials and utilities. Compared to last week, the FTSE 100 and German DAX increased by 0.06% and 1.66% to close at 10,823.56 and 26,569.99 while the CAC 40 declined by 0.98% to 8,401.18 respectively.
Asian equities ended the week mixed. Japanese shares recovered on Friday as Nvidia’s upbeat sales outlook reinforced expectations for robust artificial-intelligence infrastructure demand, with gains also supported by Japan’s lower unemployment rate. Hong Kong’s market edged higher in the final session as technology sentiment improved, but the benchmark remained lower for the week amid concerns over artificial-intelligence spending and cautious positioning ahead of US policy signals. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.63% to 25,584.79, while the Topix Index increased by 1.95% to 4,146.71
Next week, global equities is expected to trade range-bound as investors monitor yields, energy prices and key economic data, alongside global policy decisions.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s External Reserves Hit 17-Year High of $53.31billion, Surpassing Central Bank of Nigeria Target as Naira Stability and Oil Receipts Boost Buffers
Nigeria’s external reserves climbed to $53.31billion, the highest level in more than 17 years and the strongest position since January 12, 2009, when reserves stood at $53.25billion. The latest figure represents an increase of $3.35billion from $49.96billion recorded on June 3, 2026, and exceeds the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) full-year 2026 reserve projection of $51.04billion. Reserves have risen by over $7.09billion year-to-date, crossing the $52billion mark on July and reaching $52.86billion before climbing further to $53.31billion. The buildup has been supported by stronger crude oil earnings, improved foreign exchange inflows and relative currency stability, with the foreign exchange market recording 213 interbank deals worth $235.99million. The record reserve position strengthens Nigeria’s external buffer and reinforces ongoing efforts to stabilize the foreign exchange market and broader macroeconomic environment.
Currency in Circulation Jumps 72.40% to ₦5.73trillion Despite Cashless Drive, While Inflation Erodes Purchasing Power by 14.30%
Nigeria’s currency in circulation surged by 72.40% over five years to ₦5.73trillion in 2025 from ₦3.33trillion in 2021, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data, despite ongoing cashless policy efforts. The CBN attributed the increase to stronger economic activity and rising cash demand, approving 5.71 billion currency notes for 2025, up 20.50% from 2024. However, analysts argue the growth masks a decline in real value, with purchasing power estimated to have fallen 14.30% in 2025 as inflation averaged 23.01%, far exceeding the 5.37% nominal increase in cash circulation. Currency-in-circulation-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell to 1.30% in 2025 from 1.46% in 2024, highlighting weaker real cash value, while rapid growth in electronic payments continues to reduce reliance on physical cash even as inflation forces consumers to hold more naira for transactions.
FG Defends $5billion Abu Dhabi Financing Deal, Says No Oil Assets Pledged as Collateral; First Tranche Priced at SOFR + 3.95%
The Federal Government has clarified that its $5billion Total Return Swap (TRS) facility with First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) is not backed by oil revenues, ports, airports or any strategic national assets, but rather by Naira-denominated Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) securities valued at 133.30% of amounts drawn. Approved by both the Federal Executive Council (FEC) and the National Assembly, the six-year facility is structured to provide US dollar liquidity for budget implementation, priority infrastructure projects and refinancing of expensive debt obligations. The first tranche, of which $1.50billion has already been accessed, is priced at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) + 3.95%, rising to SOFR + 4.00% for subsequent drawdowns. The Debt Management Office (DMO) said the phased facility offers faster access to foreign currency financing during periods of volatile international bond markets, while the collateral framework includes monthly margin reviews and a five-business-day cure period. The transaction has faced scrutiny from civil society groups and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which previously warned that derivatives-based financing structures can be complex and less transparent, even as Nigeria seeks alternative funding sources amid rising debt service pressures from exchange-rate depreciation and higher interest rates.
Nigeria, Thailand Move to Deepen Strategic Partnership as Both Nations Target Growth in Agriculture, Technology, Renewable Energy and Trade
Nigeria and Thailand are set to strengthen bilateral relations beyond traditional trade in crude oil and rice, with both countries exploring deeper cooperation in agriculture, Information and Communications Technology (ICT), renewable energy, commerce, healthcare and solid minerals. Vice President Kashim Shettima said Nigeria’s large market, youthful population and abundant natural resources position it as an attractive destination for Thai investment, while urging a strategic review of relations to unlock broader economic opportunities. Thailand, which views Nigeria as a key gateway to West Africa, is advancing a new Thailand-Africa Initiative aimed at boosting economic cooperation and people-to-people exchanges across the continent. The renewed engagement comes as Thailand leverages its expertise in agricultural technology and food production, having recently donated 12 metric tonnes of rice worth approximately $22,000 to support food-insecure communities in Nigeria. Thailand remains one of the world’s largest rice producers, with annual output estimated at 34.30 million metric tonnes, and the partnership is expected to support Nigeria’s drive for increased food security, economic diversification and technology-driven growth.
CPPE Warns Against Policy Reversal as Nigeria’s Reform-Driven Fiscal Gains Face Debt-Service Pressure of ₦10.61trillion
The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has urged the Federal Government to sustain Nigeria’s economic reforms, warning that reversing them could undermine investor confidence, weaken fiscal stability and destabilize the foreign exchange market. While supporting the reform agenda, the group called for a shift from macroeconomic stabilization to boosting productivity, job creation, incomes and living standards, with policy implementation continuously refined to reduce pressure on businesses and households. The statement comes as government data shows Nigeria incurred ₦10.61trillion in additional debt-service costs between June 2023 and December 2025, exceeding spending on strategic infrastructure by ₦4.14trillion, with infrastructure receiving ₦6.47trillion. Total incremental Federal Government expenditure stood at ₦30.64trillion, including ₦9.39trillion for wage adjustments, ₦9.37trillion for external debt servicing, ₦3.14trillion for electricity subsidies, ₦1.24trillion for domestic debt servicing and ₦423.80billion for social welfare transfers. Combined debt-service costs accounted for 34.60% of incremental expenditure, highlighting the fiscal strain from exchange-rate depreciation and higher interest rates despite reforms that the government says created fiscal space and helped limit borrowing, which rose by ₦11.90trillion during the period.
Next week, investor sentiment is expected to remain positive as Nigeria’s return to Frontier Market status with a record external reserve to support confidence in the economy, with Naira stability likely to be supported by strong foreign exchange reserves. However, concerns over elevated poverty levels, high living costs and power sector inefficiencies may continue to weigh on the broader economic outlook.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market maintained a almost flat during the week, with investor demand remaining concentrated across the belly and long end of the curve. Improved sentiment towards emerging market debt, supported by stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, resilient foreign exchange reserves and sustained confidence in Nigeria’s external position, continued to underpin buying interest. Consequently, the average sovereign Eurobond yield declined by 4bps to 6.90%, reflecting modest price appreciation across most maturities.
Next week, Nigerian sovereign Eurobonds are expected to remain broadly positive, supported by favourable investor sentiment and improving domestic fundamentals. However, market performance will remain sensitive to movements in US Treasury yields, global risk appetite, oil prices and expectations around global monetary policy.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold ended the week lower but remained at historically elevated levels, with spot gold closing around $4,454.08/oz on 28 August 2026 after profit-taking and a more hawkish-than-expected tone from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Despite the weekly pullback, gold continues to benefit from strong year-to-date gains, sustained central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and long-term investor demand for safe-haven assets, reinforcing its position as a key store of value during periods of economic and market volatility. Market participants remain focused on inflation dynamics and the timing of future US monetary policy adjustments.
OIL
Oil prices softened during the week, with Brent Crude closing around $88.35/bbl and WTI near $83.44/bbl. Crude markets remained supported by geopolitical risks in the Middle East and concerns surrounding global supply security; however, these were offset by expectations of weaker demand growth and increased prospects of tighter monetary policy. Brent recorded a weekly decline of approximately 6%, reflecting reduced risk appetite and easing concerns over immediate supply disruptions.
ETF
Commodity-linked ETFs delivered mixed performance during the week. Gold-backed ETFs, including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), experienced some profit-taking alongside the decline in bullion prices, with GLD closing around US$408.89/share. Nevertheless, Fund flows remained broadly supportive over the month as investors maintained strategic allocations to precious metals amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Energy-focused ETFs tracked lower oil prices and remained sensitive to changing geopolitical developments and commodity price volatility.
Gold is expected to remain supported by safe-haven demand, Central Bank buying, and long-term portfolio diversification needs, although near-term movements will depend on US inflation and Federal Reserve policy expectations. Oil prices are likely to remain volatile as geopolitical and supply-side risks compete with concerns about slowing global demand. Commodity ETFs may continue to attract defensive inflows, while energy ETFs are expected to track fluctuations in crude oil prices.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Nigeria Reclaims Frontier Market Status as FTSE Russell Endorses Reforms, Boosting Prospects for Foreign Capital Inflows and Nigerian Equities
Nigeria will officially rejoin the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index on September 21, 2026, nearly three years after being downgraded to “Unclassified” status in September 2023 due to foreign exchange execution and capital repatriation challenges. The Federal Government described the reclassification as a strong endorsement of ongoing economic reforms, citing significant improvements in foreign exchange liquidity, investor access, capital repatriation and market infrastructure. The move is expected to enhance the visibility of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) among global institutional investors, potentially triggering portfolio rebalancing and fresh inflows from Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and other index-tracking funds. Major beneficiaries could include banking stocks alongside large-cap companies, as global investors adjust portfolios to reflect Nigeria’s renewed Frontier Market weighting. The reclassification follows reforms including improved foreign exchange market conditions and the adoption of a T+1 settlement cycle, reinforcing confidence in Nigeria’s capital market outlook.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money-market liquidity remained in surplus during the week, although it tightened toward its close following Treasury-bill and OMO settlements. System liquidity opened the week at approximately ₦5.32trillion on Monday an increase of ₦1.36trillion owing to Friday’s FAAC inflow and Bond Coupon Payments, Wednesday saw a marginal decrease of ₦241.10billion, to open the day at ₦5.082trillion while Thursday saw an increase of ₦907.31biillion following OMO settlement and additional FAAC inflows. Friday saw a decline of ₦2.38trillion to open at ₦3.42trillion following Thursday’s NTB’s and OMO auction settlement.
Despite the large liquidity swings, funding conditions remained broadly stable. The Open Repo Rate (OPR) stayed at 22.00%.
Next week, money market liquidity is expected to improve with maturities in Open Market Operations (OMO) and Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB), though Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) liquidity mop-ups may limit the impact. Strong demand for NTBs is expected to support market activity despite declining yields.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded a mild bullish performance though the market opened for four days as Federal Government declared Tuesday August 25th as a public holiday. The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.81% and 0.84% to close the week at 241,298.47 and ₦155.83trillion respectively, compared to 239,351.16 and ₦154.53trillion last week.
A total turnover of 2.51 billion shares worth ₦123.22billion in 173,561 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 6.24billion shares valued at ₦157.76billion that exchanged hands last week in 186,496 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed mixed, with the Banking and Oil & Gas indices increasing by 2.29% and 4.54% respectively, while the Insurance, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods Indices declined by -0.63%, -0.67% and -0.001% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were University Press PLC and First Holdco PLC, while INTERNATIONAL ENERGY INSURANCE PLC and Fidson Healthcare PLC topped the losers list.
LISTINGS
Federal Government of Nigeria: Listing of FGN Savings Bonds Issued in July 2026
Trading Licence Holders are hereby notified that the July 2026 Issue of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Savings Bonds were listed on Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX) on Thursday, 27 August 2026.
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTING
Prestige Assurance Lists 2.37 Billion New Shares from ₦6Billion Private Placement, Expanding Issued Share Capital to 15.62 Billion Shares
Prestige Assurance Plc has listed an additional 2.37 billion ordinary shares on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), arising from its private placement of 3.08 billion shares at ₦1.95 per share, which raised approximately ₦6billion. Following the listing, the insurer’s total issued and fully paid-up share capital increased by 17.88%, from 13.25 billion shares to 15.62 billion shares, further strengthening its capital base and market presence.
International Energy Insurance Lists 8.08 Billion New Shares Following ₦17.50Billion Public Offer, Expanding Share Capital to 9.36 Billion Shares
International Energy Insurance Plc has listed an additional 8.08 billion ordinary shares on the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), arising from its Public Offer of 5.47 billion shares at ₦3.20 per share, which raised approximately ₦17.50billion. Following the listing, the company’s total issued and fully paid-up share capital surged by 628.91%, from 1.28 billion shares to 9.36 billion shares, significantly strengthening its capital base and positioning for future growth.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to remain cautious with positive sentiment from Nigeria’s recent return to the Financial Times Stock Exchange Russell (FTSE Russell) Frontier Markets Index providing support for select stocks and sustained foreign investor interest.
CURRENCY
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1,876.19 | -1.12% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1,605.21 | -1.21% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦995.70 | -1.50% |
| (₦/$) | 28/08/2026 | 21/08/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,337.29 | 1,357.61 | -1.50% |
| Parallel | 1,410.00 | 1,420.00 | -0.70% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| UPL | 4.80 | 5.70 | 0.90 | 18.75% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 129.95 | 145.00 | 15.05 | 11.58% |
| SEPLAT | 11,200.60 | 12,320.60 | 1,120.00 | 10.00% |
| REDSTAREX | 14.70 | 16.15 | 1.45 | 9.86% |
| TRANSCOHOT | 241.90 | 265.50 | 23.60 | 9.76% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| INTENEGINS | 3.87 | 2.84 | -1.03 | -26.61% |
| FIDSON | 93.55 | 77.00 | -16.55 | -17.69% |
| CAVERTON | 4.95 | 4.20 | -0.75 | -15.15% |
| ZICHIS | 17.00 | 14.50 | -2.50 | -14.71% |
| AUSTINLAZ | 2.84 | 2.50 | -0.34 | -11.97% |
DISCLAIMER
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