GLOBAL ECONOMY
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, marking an unusually split 8–4 vote, acknowledging heightened uncertainty from Middle East tensions; markets still expect no rate changes this year, even as inflation risks intensify. National manufacturing remained expansionary (ISM 52.70, S&P Global PMI 54.50, strongest since mid‑2022), though employment weakened and prices surged amid Middle East disruptions. Inflation re‑accelerated, with PCE +0.70% month-on-month in March (headline 3.50% year-on-year, core 3.20%), driven by a 20.90% jump in gasoline, while housing continued to cool home prices were flat month-on-month. Growth remained positive but below expectations, with Q1 GDP at 2.0%, led by government spending and a surge in AI‑related business investment, offset by weaker consumption and a larger trade drag.
The British Pound climbed to around £1/$1.36, its strongest level since mid‑February, as markets reacted to a more hawkish-leaning Bank of England hold and intensifying Middle East energy shocks. The Bank of England (BoE) kept Bank Rate at 3.75% by an 8–1 vote, amid uncertainty over whether energy-driven inflation will persist. CPI inflation stands at 3.30% and is expected to rise, with policymakers warning of potential second‑round effects despite weaker growth and a loosening labour market. Economic data underscored this tension: Manufacturing strengthened (PMI 53.70, highest since May 2022) despite acute supply-chain and cost pressures from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, car production fell 0.8% year-on-year, while house prices accelerated to 3% year-on-year, defying weak confidence.
The Euro strengthened above €1/$1.17 as markets interpreted a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) tone against a backdrop of surging energy prices and worsening sentiment, following the escalation of the Iran war and disruption of Middle East energy supplies. The ECB held rates unchanged (deposit rate 2.0%, refi 2.15%) but signaled openness to tightening as early as June, with President Lagarde confirming a unanimous decision despite discussions of a hike, while officials Nagel and Müller warned that persistently higher inflation may require action; markets are now fully pricing three rate hikes in 2026, starting by July. Headline euro area inflation rose to 3.0% in April (energy +10.9%), with 3‑year expectations at 3.0% and 5‑year at 2.4%, even as core inflation eased slightly to 2.2%. Q1 GDP up just 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 0.8% year-on-year (slowest since Q2 2022), weaker consumption across major economies, and the Economic Sentiment Indicator falling to 93.00, its lowest since 2020. Unemployment eased to 6.20%, underscoring the ECB’s growing dilemma as inflation risks rise faster than growth weakens, driven primarily by geopolitical energy shocks.
The offshore Yuan steady near ¥6.83/$1 ahead of the Labour Day holiday, supported by front‑loaded stimulus and resilient manufacturing. Fiscal spending rose 2.60% year-on-year to ¥ 7.47trillion, accounting for 24.90% of the annual budget (a recent high). Industrial profits jumped 15.50% year-on-year, driven by manufacturing (+19.10%) and strong gains in non‑ferrous metals and electronics, while private firms remained the main driver despite moderating growth. The labour market remained stable, adding 2.99 million urban jobs, with unemployment averaging 5.30%, below the ~5.50% target. Moody upgraded China’s outlook to stable (A1), citing manageable fiscal and debt dynamics and investment in high‑productivity sectors. Manufacturing PMI stayed expansionary at 50.30, export orders recovered and sentiment improved, but non‑manufacturing PMI fell to 49.40, pulling the composite PMI to a near‑stalling 50.10; in contrast, a private gauge showed manufacturing accelerating sharply (52.20, fastest since 2020) with intensifying input and output price pressures. Beijing prepares for renewed US‑China trade talks under elevated geopolitical risks.
Next week, market attention will center on geopolitical developments surrounding potential US–Iran talks and key global macro catalysts, including the US jobs report, leading labour market indicators, and services activity data, alongside central bank policy decisions in major and emerging economies, China and Europe’s trade and retail releases.
GLOBAL MARKETS
Global markets traded with measured risk appetite and clear regional divergence during the week ended 1st May 2026, as investors responded primarily to macro data, central bank signals, earnings outcomes, and commodity price movements, rather than any decisive geopolitical resolution.
In the US, equity markets finished the week mixed but resilient, with continued rotation within equity leadership supported by strength in mega‑cap technology and AI‑linked names following broadly solid earnings results. Compared to last week, the Dow jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increased by 0.55%, 1.12% and 0.91% to 49,499.27, 25,114.44 and 7,230.12 respectively.
European and UK stocks equities underperformed on a relative basis, reflecting softening growth momentum and cautious earnings guidance, alongside the impact of May Day market closures across several major bourses. Investors reacted to Eurozone Q1 GDP growth of just 0.10% QoQ and a pick‑up in headline inflation. Compared to last week, the German DAX indices increased by 0.68% to 24,292.38 while FTSE 100 and CAC 40 decreased by -0.15% and -0.53% to close at 10,363.93 and 8,114.84 respectively.
Asian markets displayed mixed performance pressured by energy‑driven inflation concerns, weaker sentiment toward China‑linked assets, and continued caution around regional growth prospects. Compared to last week as the Hang Seng index decreased by -0.78% to close at 25,776.53 while the Topix increased by 0.33% 3,728.73 respectively.
Next week, focus will be on key central bank policy speeches, minute release, jobs data and a heavy slate of global corporate earnings all expected to shape near‑term risk sentiment across asset classes.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Economy Slips Into Mild Contraction as PMI Falls Below 50 in April
Nigeria’s aggregate business activity dipped into contraction in April 2026, with the Central Bank of Nigeria reporting a composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of 49.40 points, ending 16 months of continuous expansion amid weakening demand and external pressures. Output moderated to 49.70, new orders fell more sharply to 48.40, and employment eased to 49.60, while raw materials inventory declined to 48.70, reflecting cautious business sentiment. The slowdown was broad‑based: 19 out of 36 subsectors contracted, led by primary metals, while forestry was the fastest‑growing. Industry PMI stood at 49.50, services contracted more deeply at 48.80 ending 14 months of growth while agriculture sustained marginal expansion at 50.20, its 21st consecutive month, supported by farming output (50.50) and employment (52.10). The CBN attributed the moderation to weaker demand and heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, despite marginally improved supplier delivery times at 50.90, underscoring rising headwinds to Nigeria’s near‑term economic momentum.
NNPC Clears Niger Crossing, Unlocks 2 billion cubic feet per day Gas Capacity in OB3 Breakthrough
NNPC Ltd has completed the technically complex River Niger crossing on the Obiafu‑Obrikom‑Oben (OB3) Gas Pipeline, unlocking an additional 2 billion standard cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in transmission capacity and marking a major boost to Nigeria’s energy security, power generation, and industrial gas supply. Executed by NNPC Gas Infrastructure Company, the milestone activates the full potential of the OB3 pipeline, a critical link between eastern and western gas networks long delayed by funding, terrain, and engineering challenges. The project supports Nigeria’s Gas‑to‑Prosperity agenda, complements progress on the 614.00‑km AKK pipeline (2.20 bcf/d capacity), and advances the country’s ambition to scale gas production to 12 bcf/d by 2030, significantly improving supply reliability and economic activity nationwide.
NRS Goes Live with Rev360, Targets ₦40.70trillion Revenue in Nigeria’s Tax Administration 3.0 Shift
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has officially launched Rev360, its next‑generation, fully integrated tax administration platform, marking a transition to Tax Administration 3.0 and beginning a phased rollout starting with medium and emerging taxpayers. The platform is designed to improve compliance, transparency, and taxpayer experience as Nigeria pushes to strengthen revenue mobilization. Rev360 underpins an ambitious ₦40.70trillion revenue target for 2026, representing a 44% increase from ₦28.29trillion collected in 2025, and a sharp rise from ₦6.40trillion in 2021. Following nationwide readiness programmes and amid warnings against fake tax websites, the NRS says the new system will reduce administrative friction, deepen trust, and support Nigeria’s goal of cutting borrowing through stronger, technology‑driven revenue performance.
Nigeria Slashes Import Tariffs to Cut Costs, Protect Local Output as FX Demand Persists — FMDA
Nigeria’s revised tariff regime under the ECOWAS Common External Tariff signals a strategic shift toward lowering production costs and easing consumer prices, with the deepest cuts focused on industrial inputs, according to the Financial Market Dealers Association. The industrial sector recorded the largest cumulative tariff reduction of 568.75%-points, followed by food products at 227.50%-points and transport‑related goods at 120%-points, while manufactured goods saw a 30%-points increase to discourage finished imports. Industrial goods already accounting for about 49% of import FX demand with average annual imports of $7billion, are expected to benefit most, though weak price elasticity of 0.03 suggests limited impact on total import volumes. Overall, Nigeria spent $44.42billion on imports between 2023 and 2025 (9M), indicating the policy is more likely to reshape import composition toward inputs rather than materially reduce FX demand, even as rising refined petroleum exports ($6.13billion in 2025) offer partial relief.
Next week, Investors will closely monitor key domestic economic data releases, while keeping a sharp focus on the CBN’s FX interventions and FX liquidity conditions, as well as assessing the impact of external debt servicing pressures.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market remained broadly stable during the period, with average yields anchored at 6.86% a decline of 3bps from previous week, reflecting steady global investor interest and a cautious but relatively balanced stance toward Nigeria’s dollar‑denominated obligations. The flat yield movement suggests limited directional conviction, as investors continue to weigh Nigeria’s attractive carry against lingering macro and global risk considerations, resulting in selective participation rather than broad-based repositioning.
Next week, we expect sentiments to remain measured and range‑bound, with selective demand across the sovereign curve, particularly at yield levels perceived as offering adequate compensation for risk.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
UAE Set to Exit OPEC in May as Oil Market Faces Historic Supply Shock
The United Arab Emirates will exit OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance effective May 01, 2026, seeking greater flexibility to expand oil output amid shifting global demand and prolonged disagreements especially with Saudi Arabia over production limits. The move comes as OPEC production plunged 27.50% to 20.79 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, while the cartel now controls about 40% of global supply. Market fragility is deepening: the World Bank warns global oil supply could fall by nearly 7 million bpd in Q2 2026, pushing output down to 98.40 million bpd and creating a record deficit of 3.70 million bpd, according to the IEA. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz handling roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows plus Middle East tensions underpin the risks, even as OPEC+ plans a modest 206,000 bpd quota increase. While UAE gains production autonomy and potential market share, its exit threatens OPEC cohesion, could pressure prices lower, and reshapes global energy dynamics at a critical juncture.
GOLD
Gold traded lower over the week as elevated real US yields and renewed USD firmness continued to weigh on non‑yielding assets, partially offsetting ongoing geopolitical risk support. Spot gold closed the week at approximately $4,612.50/oz, reflecting a c.2.05% week-on-week decline. The pullback followed easing immediate war‑premium fears alongside growing market conviction that US policy rates will remain restrictive for longer.
OIL
Oil prices remained volatile but ended the week higher overall, shaped by alternating headlines around the Strait of Hormuz, tentative ceasefire rhetoric, and ongoing supply disruptions. Brent crude ended near $108.18/bbl, trimming some late‑week gains but still posting a c.3.32% w/w increase, while WTI closed around $102.50/bbl, up approximately 2.57% w/w. While prices eased toward the end of the week on diplomatic speculation, structurally tight inventories and impaired transit through key shipping routes continue to embed a sizable geopolitical risk premium.
ETF
ETF flow data continued to highlight a cautious, income‑focused investor positioning with bond ETFs recording net inflows of approximately $4.86billion, reinforcing demand for yield and defensive duration exposure amid policy uncertainty and elevated volatility. In contrast, commodity ETFs experienced net outflows of roughly $0.62billion, reversing earlier inflows as investors tactically reduced exposure following oil’s sharp run‑up and rising price volatility. The divergence between fixed income and commodity flows continues to reflect a market environment characterized by risk management and selective exposure rather than broad risk‑on positioning.
Gold is expected to remain volatile with a neutral‑to‑soft bias, as high real yields and USD resilience cap upside, while geopolitical risks and central bank demand provide downside protection. Oil prices are likely to stay headline‑driven, with Brent expected to trade within a $100–$115 range in the near term, barring a decisive de‑escalation or further supply disruption. Bond ETFs should continue to see steady defensive inflows, supported by elevated yields and macro uncertainty.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Liquidity in the banking system remained surplus throughout the week, opening the week at a credit of ₦4.26trillion an increase of ₦293billion due to CRR Maintenance, it further improved on Tuesday by ₦1.89trillion due to FAAC inflows to ₦3.71trillion Wednesday experienced a decline due to OMO auction settlement. Liquidity declined significantly on Thursday by ₦1.11trillion to ₦4.96trillion largely due to FGN Bond Auction settlement. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) increased by 2bps to close at 22.02%.
Next week, attention will shift to the Nigerian Treasury Bills Market where the DMO is offering ₦700billion across tenors as against the ₦556.02billion.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market closed the week on a positive note as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 7.33% to close the week at 242,277.81 and ₦155.99trillion respectively compared to 225,724.33 and ₦145.34trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.84 billion shares worth ₦287.76billion in 332,453 deals was traded this week by Investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 3.81 billion shares valued at ₦213.96billion that exchanged hands last week in 297,202 deals.
On a sectoral basis, all sectors closed positive, with the, Oil and Gas, Consumer Goods and Industrial Goods indices rising by 14.37%, 3.20% and 16.89% why the Banking and Insurance indices fell by -5.52% and -1.13% respectively.
Notable gainers this week Zichis Agro Allied Industries PLC and The Initiates PLC while Royal Exchange and United Bank for Africa PLC topped the losers list.
Next week, we expect the market to sustain this bullishness as Investors interest and appetite for stocks with strong fundamentals continue to grow.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$) | 30/04/2026 | 24/04/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,374.94 | 1,358.44 | 1.22% |
| Parallel | 1,395.00 | 1,400.00 | -0.36% |
Top Gainers
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ZICHIS | 15.60 | 21.78 | 6.18 | 39.62% |
| TIP | 23.00 | 30.60 | 7.60 | 33.04% |
| UACN | 142.00 | 181.50 | 39.50 | 27.82% |
| BUACEMENT | 335.00 | 418.00 | 83.00 | 24.78% |
| CAP | 118.50 | 145.20 | 26.70 | 22.53% |
Top Losers
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| UBA | 55.00 | 42.75 | -12.25 | -22.27% |
| ROYALEX | 1.70 | 1.36 | -0.34 | -20.00% |
| TRANSEXPR | 7.90 | 6.40 | -1.50 | -18.99% |
| DEAPCAP | 4.90 | 4.19 | -0.71 | -14.49% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 75.00 | 64.65 | -10.35 | -13.80% |
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