GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US macroeconomic indicators presented a mixed but resilient picture amid lingering geopolitical and inflationary pressures. Local employment contracted for a fifth consecutive month. Consumer sentiment improved to 55.20, and one-year inflation expectations eased to 4.20% (with five-year expectations holding steady at 3.30%), though both remain elevated compared to pre-conflict 2024 levels. Labor costs continued to run slightly hot, with Q2 employment compensation rising 0.90% quarter-over-quarter and 3.40% annually, edging above forecasts. Consequently, while the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady for a fifth consecutive meeting, the dollar index suffered its worst weekly drop in three months (falling 1.50% to 100.30) as investors questioned the pace of disinflation; however, markets still price in roughly a two-thirds probability of a 25bps rate hike in September.
The UK macroeconomic landscape demonstrated resilience amid geopolitical tensions, with the pound gaining over 1% to just above $1.34 following the new government’s pledge of fiscal discipline. The Bank of England held the Bank Rate steady at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote, downplaying imminent tightening despite headline CPI sitting at 2.60% with upside risks from elevated energy prices; correspondingly, households’ one-year inflation expectations eased to a multi-month low of 3.40%. While the housing market remained supportive with Nationwide house prices rising 1.80% year-on-year in July, the manufacturing sector faced headwinds, as H1 car production fell 7.50% year-on-year. This production decline highlighted heavy reliance on international trade, where a sharp 44.70% plunge in exports to China was partially offset by a 3.40% rise to the EU. Meanwhile, domestic consumer demand remained robust but increasingly leveraged, with the annual growth rate for net consumer credit borrowing accelerating to 9.10% in June, the fastest pace since July 2018.
The Eurozone demonstrated robust economic resilience, with Q2 GDP expanding by a stronger-than-expected 0.40% quarter-on-quarter (1.00% year-on-year), led by standout annual growth in Spain (2.70%). However, renewed US-Iran hostilities drove a sharp surge in oil prices, pushing annual headline inflation up to 2.90% and core inflation to 2.50%, remaining well above the ECB’s 2.00% target. Despite these energy-driven price pressures, the labor market remained remarkably stable with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.30% in June, and the ECB’s wage tracker indicated easing negotiated wage growth (projected at 2.30% for 2026), signaling no immediate wage-price spiral. Markets are still fully pricing in further ECB tightening to anchor inflation expectations.
China’s composite PMI Output Index fell to 49.30 as both manufacturing (49.20) and non-manufacturing (49.00) sectors returned to contraction for the first time since February, driven by weak domestic and external demand alongside shrinking new orders. This activity slowdown followed a Q2 GDP print that missed the government’s 4.50%–5% target range, marking the weakest quarterly expansion in over three years. In response, Beijing is opting for targeted, incremental support rather than sweeping stimulus. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) held its benchmark rates steady (7-day reverse repo at 1.40%) but deployed massive short-term liquidity injections (totaling up to ¥2.0trillion via reverse repos) to smooth month-end money market conditions, helping the offshore Yuan maintain its strongest level since early 2023 at around ¥6.74/$1 amid expectations of sustained, pragmatic policy backing.
Next week, global markets will be driven by ongoing US-Iran geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ oil quota talks that continue to elevate energy prices and inflation risks. Key macroeconomic data releases will include critical US labor and industrial reports, Eurozone industrial production, China PMIs, and Japan wage data.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US major indices closed the week higher, rebounding from mid-week tech pressure as strong Big Tech earnings from Amazon and Microsoft offset lingering concerns over AI capital spending and rich valuations. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices increased by 1.04%, 1.59%, and 1.05% to 52,485.03, 25,373.85 and 7,489.72 respectively.
Asian markets were mixed, with Hong Kong and Japan showing different reactions to the global tech repricing as investors assessed AI valuation risks and ongoing global rate/inflation pressures. Compared to last week, the German DAX, CAC40 and FTSE 100, increased by 3.21%, 2.05%, 1.23% to 25,629.24, 8,509.64, 10,868.05 respectively.
Asian markets were mixed, with China’s onshore bourses posting early‑week gains before profit‑taking and AI‑valuation concerns resurfaced. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index increased by 3.69% to 25,884.43 while the Topix index decreased to –0.20% to 4,003.30.
Next week, markets are likely to stay volatile and cautiously defensive, with U.S. tech valuation concerns, oil-driven inflation fears, and ongoing geopolitical risk keeping investors focused on earnings and macro data.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Global FDI Hits $1.60trillion in 2025 as Developed Economies Capture Most Investment, Nigeria’s Inflows Slide
Global Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) rose 6.00% to $1.60trillion in 2025 from $1.50trillion in 2024, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), but the growth was largely concentrated in developed and high-income economies rather than a broad-based recovery in productive investment. FDI inflows to developed economies climbed 11.00% to $723billion, while developing economies attracted just over $901billion, up 2% year-on-year. Hong Kong (China), Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates accounted for more than one-third of developing economy inflows, reflecting investors’ preference for technology-intensive and strategic sectors. UNCTAD noted that much of the increase was driven by corporate restructurings, financial flows and one-off transactions rather than sustained investment expansion, with FDI excluding conduit flows rising only 4.00%. Against this backdrop, Nigeria’s FDI performance weakened significantly, with inflows falling to $135.08million in the first quarter of 2026 from $357.80million in the fourth quarter of 2025, a decline of $222.72million, despite total capital importation reaching $10.37billion, largely driven by portfolio investments and other short-term financial instruments.
FG to Publish Subsidy Savings Report as Fuel, FX Reforms Worth 5.00% of GDP Fund Debt Service, Minimum Wage and Cash Transfers
The Federal Government has announced plans to publish a detailed breakdown of savings generated from the removal of fuel and foreign exchange (FX) subsidies, alongside how the funds have been deployed, as part of efforts to improve transparency around its economic reforms. Speaking at the 7th Africa Emerging Markets Forum, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, said the combined impact of the former subsidies was equivalent to about 5% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and that the reforms were aimed primarily at eliminating economic distortions and corruption. According to the minister, part of the savings has been used to service government debt, settle Ways and Means obligations, fund the new national minimum wage, and expand cash transfers to 15.00 million vulnerable households, an intervention the government says has helped lift 7.50 million Nigerians out of extreme poverty. The disclosure comes as borrowing costs remain elevated, with government debt servicing rates rising from about 8.00% previously to as high as 24.00%, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains a tight monetary stance with the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50%. Analysts estimate fuel subsidy removal alone saves the government between ₦4trillion and ₦6trillion annually, while monthly allocations from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) have surged to ₦2.04trillion from ₦629billion before the reforms, highlighting the significant fiscal impact of the policy changes.
Nigeria’s Cash Outside Banks Falls to 7-Month Low as Digital Payment Push Gains Momentum
Nigeria’s Currency in Circulation (CIC) declined by ₦166.68billion month-on-month to ₦5.52trillion in June 2026 from ₦5.69trillion in May, while cash held outside the banking system dropped sharply to a seven-month low of ₦4.92trillion, according to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data. Currency outside banks fell by ₦270.97billion or 5.22% in June, bringing the six-month decline to ₦485.80billion (8.98%) from ₦5.41trillion in December 2025, indicating that more cash is returning to the formal banking system. Despite the monthly decline, total currency in circulation remained 10.30% higher year-on-year than the ₦5.01trillion recorded in June 2025. The share of currency held outside banks also eased to 89.11% from 91.27% in May, while bank reserves rose 0.69% to ₦34trillion. The data reflects growing traction for the CBN’s cash-lite agenda under the Nigeria Payment System Vision (PSV) 2028, which targets 95.00% financial inclusion, over 10.00 million QR-code and tap-to-pay acceptance points, and a reduction in cash held outside banks to below 40.00% of total currency in circulation by 2028, although cash remains dominant across retail trade, transportation, rural communities and the informal economy.
Nigeria’s Net FX Inflows Rise to $60.81billion as Autonomous Sources Drive Record $109.86billion Foreign Exchange Receipts
Nigeria’s foreign exchange (FX) inflows increased by 13.81% to $109.86billion in 2025 from $96.53billion in 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with autonomous sources accounting for 64.21% of total inflows. Autonomous inflows surged 25.12% to $70.54billion, driven by stronger non-oil exports and capital importation, while CBN-sourced inflows declined 2.08% to $39.32billion. Although total FX outflows rose 27.83% to $49.05billion, Nigeria still recorded a higher net FX inflow of $60.81billion, up from $58.16billion in 2024. The economy generated $54.28billion in net inflows through autonomous channels, underscoring growing private-sector contributions to FX liquidity. Meanwhile, FX utilisation jumped 59.36% to $42.83billion, with visible imports accounting for $18.76billion or 43.80% of total utilization. Separately, the Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics (AERE) cautioned that Nigeria’s record $4.38billion FX market turnover may not necessarily reflect deeper market liquidity, warning that large one-off transactions and volatile capital flows could mask underlying vulnerabilities despite improved trading activity and stronger market liquidity trends.
Nigeria’s Consumer Credit Falls 19.89% to ₦3.78trillion for First Time Since 2019 as High Interest Rates Weigh on Borrowing
Nigeria’s outstanding consumer credit declined by 19.89% to ₦3.78trillion in 2025 from ₦4.72trillion in 2024, marking the first contraction since December 2019, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The decline was largely driven by a sharp drop in personal loans to ₦1.85trillion, reflecting the impact of the high interest rate environment, while retail loans surged 63.77% to ₦1.94trillion, accounting for 51.16% of total consumer credit and overtaking personal loans (48.84%) for the first time in years. Consumer credit’s share of total private sector lending also fell to 6.60% from 7.98% in 2024. Despite the weakness in household borrowing, banks increased their focus on longer-duration lending, with long-term credit rising to 34.94% of loan portfolios, while short-term credit remained dominant at 51.60%. The development comes amid tight monetary conditions, with the CBN maintaining the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50%, even as total credit to the private sector expanded to ₦83.26trillion in June 2026.
Manufacturing Remains Under Pressure as High Costs Weigh on Output; FG Clears Path for 1.56million Smart Meter Rollout
Nigeria’s manufacturing sector continues to face significant headwinds despite broader economic stabilization, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) recovering marginally to 50.10 in June 2026 from 49.60 in May. Analysts attribute the sector’s weak performance to persistently high production costs, elevated energy prices, expensive borrowing rates and subdued consumer demand, despite improved foreign exchange liquidity and external reserves above $52.00 billion. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50%, keeping financing costs elevated, while the manufacturing sector contributed 9.57% to real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026, up from 7.40% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Industry stakeholders warn that sustained recovery will depend on lower energy costs, affordable credit, improved infrastructure and stronger consumer purchasing power. Separately, the Federal Government announced plans to deploy 1.56 million electricity meters before the end of 2026 after resolving a legal dispute with the Association of Meter Manufacturers of Nigeria (AMMON) that had stalled procurement for months. The resolution removes a major obstacle to the $500.00 million Nigeria Distribution Sector Recovery Programme (DISREP), paving the way for accelerated smart meter installation aimed at reducing Nigeria’s metering gap, simproving billing transparency and strengthening power sector efficiency.
Looking ahead, the foreign exchange (FX) market is expected to remain mixed as persistent demand for foreign currency continues to weigh on market dynamics. Investor sentiment will also be shaped by expectations surrounding the Federal Government’s forthcoming disclosure of savings from fuel and foreign exchange subsidy reforms, recent Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) revenue gains, and signals from manufacturing activity, which continues to face pressure from elevated energy and financing costs
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market recorded a bullish performance during the week, as improved demand and reduced selling pressure across the yield curve encouraged investors to increase exposure to Nigeria’s dollar-denominated debt instruments. Market sentiment was supported by renewed investor appetite for emerging market debt and improving confidence in Nigeria’s external position and macroeconomic outlook. Consequently, the average sovereign Eurobond yield declined by 4 basis points week-on-week to 6.95%, reflecting stronger bond prices and increased investor participation.
Next week, Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market is expected to remain relatively positive as investors continue to seek attractive yields within the fixed-income market. Continued improvements in Nigeria’s economic fundamentals could further support investor sentiment.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold traded in a relatively narrow range during the week, closing at approximately US$4,043/oz. The precious metal remained supported by softer United States inflation data, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and continued demand for safe-haven assets. However, gains were capped by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer, with markets still pricing in the possibility of additional policy tightening if inflation remains elevated.
OIL
Oil prices recorded strong gains during the week, with Brent Crude closing at approximately US$87.93/bbl and WTI Crude at approximately US$86.80/bbl. The rally was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping routes, declining United States crude inventories, and supply disruption fears linked to Russian export infrastructure. July marked one of the strongest monthly performances for crude oil this year.
ETF
Major Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) delivered mixed performance during the week. Energy-focused ETFs benefited from the sharp rise in crude oil prices, while broader equity ETFs traded cautiously amid uncertainty surrounding interest rates and inflation. Precious metals ETFs remained relatively resilient, supported by sustained investor demand for defensive assets. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) continued to attract investor attention as gold prices held above the US$4,000/oz level despite late-week profit-taking.
Gold is expected to remain supported by geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand, although expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy in the United States could limit significant upside. Oil prices are likely to stay volatile amid Middle East developments, supply disruption risks, and OPEC+ policy decisions. Meanwhile, investors may continue favouring energy-focused ETFs and defensive investment strategies as they navigate inflation concerns and an uncertain global macroeconomic environment.
DOMESTIC MARKET
CBN Mops Up ₦7.18trillion in July as Open Market Operations Auctions Slow 48.57%, Total 2026 Liquidity Sterilization Exceeds ₦50trillion
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) sterilized ₦7.18trillion through Open Market Operations (OMO) auctions in July 2026, a 48.57% decline from the record ₦13.96trillion mopped up in June, reflecting a shift from frequent interventions to fewer but significantly larger auctions. While the CBN conducted only 3 OMO auctions in July compared with 7 in June, investor demand remained robust, with July auctions attracting roughly 4.00x oversubscription versus 3.16x in June. The standout transaction was the July 28 auction, which absorbed ₦3.50trillion, the largest single OMO allotment recorded this year. Across June, the CBN offered ₦4.20trillion but allotted ₦13.96trillion, accepting 91.42% of submitted bids amid strong liquidity absorption efforts. The 127-day tenor remained the most sought-after instrument, while stop rates ranged between 20.39% and 22.65%. With cumulative OMO sterilization now exceeding ₦50trillion in 2026, the data underscores the CBN’s aggressive liquidity-tightening strategy aimed at managing excess naira liquidity, supporting price stability and sustaining monetary policy objectives despite growing expectations for policy easing.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at a credit of ₦4.51trillion, an increase of ₦754.85billion owing to additional FAAC inflow. Tuesday saw a decline of ₦184.43billion while Wednesday saw a decline of ₦501.99billion to ₦3.83trillion following Tuesday’s net OMO settlement. Thursday also saw marginal decline of ₦28.56billion and Friday opened with a credit of ₦2.98trillion, a decline of ₦821.95billion attributed to Thursday’s MTB auction settlement. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Next week we expect system liquidity to remain robust, supported by the maturity of ₦283.78billion in Treasury Bills. With the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), on behalf of the Debt Management Office (DMO), cancelling the Treasury Bills auction originally scheduled for Wednesday, yields are likely to trend slightly lower amid increased liquidity and limited primary market supply.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded a bearish performance as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization depreciated by 0.84% and 0.79% to close at 245,283.68 and ₦158.33trillion respectively, compared to 247,357.40 and ₦159.59trillion last week.
A total turnover of 5.12 billion shares worth ₦404.76billion in 285,223 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 4.43 billion shares valued at ₦306.14billion that exchanged hands last week in 255,589 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed positively, as the Banking, Oil and Gas and Industrial Goods indices closed positive, decreasing by -0.69%, -0.24%, -0.20% and -2.29% while the Insurance index increased by 1.72% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were Critical Minerals Financing Corp PLC and Coronation Infrastructure Fund, while Associated Bus Company PLC and Fortis Global Insurance topped the losers list.
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
| Security | Ex-Div Date | Last Close Price | Dividend Bonus | Ex-Div Price |
| United Capital PLC | 28/07/2025 | ₦18.60 | ₦0.30 | NIL |
| Guiness Nigeria PLC | 30/07/2026 | ₦383.00 | ₦7.00 | NIL |
| Nigerian Exchange Group PLC | 30/07/2026 | ₦149.80 | ₦1.30 | NIL |
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTING
Fortis Global Insurance Plc: Listing of 15,000,000,000 Ordinary Shares of 50 Kobo Each Arising from the Conversion of Fortis Global Insurance Plc’s N12,000,000,000.00 Debt to Equity at N0.80 Per Share
Trading Licence Holders are hereby notified that additional 15,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of Fortis Global Insurance Plc (the Company) were on Thursday, 30 July 2026, listed on the Daily Official List of Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX).
The additional shares listed on NGX arose from Fortis Global Insurance Plc’s Conversion of N12,000,000,000.00 Debt to Equity. With this listing of the additional 15,000,000,000 ordinary shares, the total issued and fully paid-up shares of the Company has now increased from 3,227,757,647 to 18,227,757,647 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to remain mixed as investors balance profit-taking activities with renewed interest in fundamentally sound stocks amid the ongoing corporate earnings season.
CURRENCY
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| USD/NGN | ₦1,362.09 | +0.45% |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1,871.06 | +2.57% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1,600.16 | +2.81% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦989.96 | +1.91% |
| (₦/$) | 31/07/2026 | 24/07/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,368.22 | 1,362.09 | +0.45% |
| Parallel | 1,400.00 | 1,390.00 | +0.72% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| CMFC | 3.16 | 3.88 | 0.72 | 22.78% |
| CNIF | 127.60 | 154.30 | 26.70 | 20.92% |
| THOMASWY | 3.63 | 4.38 | 0.75 | 20.66% |
| CONHALLPLC | 6.99 | 8.36 | 1.37 | 19.60% |
| LASACO | 1.82 | 2.16 | 0.34 | 18.68% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ABCTRANS | 7.05 | 5.75 | -1.30 | -18.44% |
| FTGINSURE | 2.79 | 2.34 | -0.45 | -16.13% |
| TRIPPLEG | 3.41 | 2.88 | -0.53 | -15.54% |
| VERITASKAP | 1.69 | 1.43 | -0.26 | -15.38% |
| INTBREW | 13.70 | 11.80 | -1.90 | -13.87% |
DISCLAIMER
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