GLOBAL ECONOMY
The US economy showed broad resilience, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 162,000, well above expectations, while unemployment held at 4.10% and labour-force participation improved to 61.60%. This reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) may keep policy tighter, with markets pricing a nearly 60% probability of a September rate hike. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) accelerated to 55.40 and the S&P Global Composite PMI reached 56, pointing to stronger private-sector activity, though services price pressures intensified. The trade deficit widened sharply to $88.60billion in July, as imports rose 2.80% to $399.30billion while exports fell 2.10% to $310.70billion, underscoring continued external imbalances.
The UK economy maintained modest momentum as the S&P Global Composite PMI rose to 52.50 from 52.20, supported by a stronger services sector, while manufacturing stayed in expansion at 51.70. Construction weakened further, with the PMI falling to 44.30 amid softer demand, higher borrowing and energy costs, and Middle East-related uncertainty. Inflationary pressures remained a concern as rising fuel, transport, and wage costs pushed output-price inflation higher to 3.40% from 2.90%, while private-sector employment continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace in services. Markets are fully pricing a Bank of England rate hike by year-end, with another expected by March 2027, though rates are widely expected to hold in September as policymakers assess energy-price and geopolitical risks.
The Eurozone economy continued to expand, with the Composite PMI broadly stable at 52. Manufacturing rose to 52.70, its highest since May 2022, and services recovered, while employment expanded for the first time this year. Domestic demand showed signs of weakness, however: retail sales fell 0.60% Month-on-Month (MoM) in July, the sharpest decline since May 2025, and construction contracted further to 43, extending the sector’s downturn to 52 consecutive months. Inflation accelerated sharply to 3.30% YoY in August from 2.90%, driven mainly by energy inflation surging to 14.30%, while core inflation eased slightly to 2.40%. This has strengthened expectations of European Central Bank (ECB) tightening, with markets fully pricing a 25bps hike to 2.50% in September and another increase expected by June 2027.
China’s economic activity showed mixed but improving momentum. The private Composite PMI rose to 52.10 from 50.80, supported by stronger manufacturing and services activity, while employment increased for a fourth consecutive month the longest job-creation streak in over 5.50 years. Manufacturing strengthened, with the PMI rising to 51.50, as new orders expanded for a 15th consecutive month and foreign sales recorded their strongest growth in six months. However, the official National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.80, highlighting continued divergence between private and official surveys, while the official Composite PMI stayed below the expansion threshold at 49.50, reflecting persistent weakness in services, property-related activity, and domestic demand.
Next week, market focus shifts to US inflation data and Fed policy expectations, the ECB rate decision, UK GDP, China’s trade and CPI figures, Japan’s wage and PPI data, and geopolitical risks to Persian Gulf energy supply.
GLOBAL MARKETS
US equities closed the week with modest gains as strong earnings and resilient growth offset a hawkish shift in Fed rhetoric. Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole stressed that inflation remains above target which pushed September rate-hike odds to about 60% capping early gains. Compared to last week, the Dow Jones declined by 0.27% to close at 53,414.25 while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 increased by 0.40% and 0.09% to close at 26,506.99 and 7718.36 respectively.
European equities rose Friday but posted weekly losses on inflation concerns and tighter global financial conditions. Compared to last week, the German DAX and CAC 40 decreased by 1.97% and 1.46% to close at 26,046.4 and 8,278.77 while the FTSE 100 increased by 0.07% to 10,831.09 respectively.
Asian equities ended mixed, as a late Japanese rebound offset earlier weakness and Hong Kong edged higher despite AI-capex concerns. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng Index INcreased by 0.26% to 25650.87, while the Topix Index decreased by 1.05% to 4,103.23
Next week, markets will likely stay focused on US jobs data and signals ahead of the Fed’s September meeting, with rate-hike expectations.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Economy Accelerates to 4.43% Growth as Oil and Non-Oil Activity Strengthen
Nigeria’s real GDP growth accelerated to 4.43% Year-on-Year (YoY) in Q2 2026, from 3.89% in Q1 2026 and 4.23% in Q2 2025, signalling stronger economic momentum according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The expansion was broad-based, with the Non-Oil sector growing 4.31% and accounting for 95.84% of real GDP, while the Oil sector expanded 7.31%, supported by higher crude production of 1.72million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.55million barrels per day in Q1. Services and agriculture also remained key contributors, growing 4.60% and 4.39%, respectively. The expansion lifted H1 2026 real GDP growth to 4.16%, indicating that the recovery is gaining momentum, although growth remains below the Federal Government’s longer-term 7.00% ambition. The stronger GDP performance is positive for corporate earnings and domestic demand, while the improvement in oil output should support government revenues and FX inflows. However, the relatively moderate industrial expansion highlights the need for stronger investment and productivity growth to sustain the recovery
External Reserves Rise Above $54billion as Naira Strengthens
Nigeria’s external reserves rose above $54billion during the week, strengthening the country’s external buffer and providing greater capacity to absorb Foreign Exchange (FX) shocks. The improvement coincided with a notable appreciation in the naira, with the official exchange rate strengthening to approximately ₦1,315.67/$1 by 3rd September, while the parallel-market rate remained around ₦1,395.00/$1. The combination of stronger reserves, improved FX liquidity and higher Oil production supports greater confidence in the sustainability of the current exchange-rate regime and reduces near-term depreciation pressures. For investors, a more stable naira should lower imported inflation and improve the earnings outlook for businesses exposed to Foreign-currency costs, while potentially improving foreign investors’ willingness to participate in Nigerian assets. The key risk is whether reserve accumulation and FX stability can be sustained as import demand and external obligations increase.
Nigeria Set to Return to FTSE Russell Frontier Market Status
Nigeria is set to return to FTSE Russell Frontier Market status on 21 September 2026, following improvements in market accessibility, particularly around FX liquidity and the ability of investors to enter and exit the market. FTSE Russell’s September review identified 10 Nigerian large-cap companies as newly eligible for the Frontier Index Series, including GTCO, Zenith Bank, First HoldCo, MTN Nigeria, Dangote Cement, Stanbic IBTC, Nestlé Nigeria, Nigerian Breweries, Presco and Aradel Holdings. The broader inclusion of Nigerian securities strengthens the country’s visibility among international institutional investors and could support additional portfolio inflows, improved liquidity and higher demand for large-cap equities. The development is particularly relevant following Nigeria’s three-year absence from the index and reinforces the perception that FX and market-access conditions have improved. While index reclassification does not guarantee significant foreign inflows, it represents an important structural positive for Nigeria’s capital market and could support valuations and market depth over the medium term.
Next week, investor sentiment is expected to remain positive as Nigeria is set return to Frontier Market status with a record external reserve to support confidence in the economy.
EUROBOND MARKET
Nigeria’s Eurobonds traded firmer through the week, with the 2051 bond’s yield easing from 8.22% on September 1st to 8.16% on September 3rd, while the 2027–2034 bonds also recorded modest yield compression. The improvement reflected stronger investor sentiment toward Nigeria’s external position, supported by a firmer naira and rising FX reserves, although long-dated bonds continued to command yields above 8.00%, highlighting persistent sovereign-risk and duration premiums. With the Naira strengthening toward ₦1,315.00/$ and reserves reaching $54.08billion, the external credit outlook improved, but elevated global Treasury yields remained a headwind for dollar-denominated Nigerian debt.
Next week, Nigeria’s Eurobonds are likely to remain sensitive to US Treasury yields, Oil prices, Naira stability and global risk sentiment, with stronger external buffers providing support but elevated global borrowing costs limiting further yield compression.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold fell 1.10% for the week to $4,429.80/oz, pressured by a stronger dollar, higher Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a September Fed rate hike following stronger-than-expected US payrolls. Safe-haven demand and dovish Fed commentary briefly supported a rebound, but upcoming US. inflation data will be key to determining the next direction.
OIL
Oil recorded its strongest weekly advance since July as renewed US-Iran military exchanges revived concerns over a prolonged disruption to Middle Eastern supply and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent climbed approximately 7.60% for the week while WTI gained 10.40%, with Brent reaching around $96.74/barrel during the week and WTI moving above $91.22/barrel; the rally was reinforced by sharply reduced tanker traffic through Hormuz, where only four vessels transited on Thursday versus a recent 10-day average of 15.00, alongside a larger-than-expected 4.50million-barrel fall in US crude inventories to 424.50million barrels.
ETFs
ETF performance was mixed during the week, with US equity funds facing $11.12billion in outflows as investors reduced risk exposure amid higher Treasury yields and renewed geopolitical uncertainty. Money-market ETFs attracted significant inflows, reflecting stronger demand for liquidity and defensive positioning, while gold-related ETFs remained supported by continued investor interest in precious metals despite the decline in bullion prices. Overall, ETF flows pointed to a more cautious investor stance, with capital rotating away from riskier assets toward defensive and liquid exposures.
Next week, US. inflation data, Fed expectations, Middle East developments and ETF flows will remain the key catalysts for gold, oil and broader investor risk appetite.
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Nigeria’s domestic fixed-income market maintained its bullish trend, supported by strong demand for short-term government securities, with the 364-day NTB stop rate declining 31bps to 16.84% despite ₦3.35trillion subscriptions against ₦700.00billion offered. The CBN mopped up ₦4.72trillion through OMO auctions, attracting ₦4.26trillion in subscriptions, as OMO yields of 20.00%–21.00% remained competitive and sustained demand for short-duration instruments.
Secondary-market FGN bond yields also edged lower, with the average yield around 16.50%, while liquidity tightened after the auction settlement, pushing overnight rates (NOFR-Nigerian Overnight Financing Rate) up 2bps (basis points) to 22.20%, although the OBB rate (Overnight Buy Back Rate) held at 22.00%.
Next week, Domestic fixed-income markets are likely to remain supported by strong demand for government securities, although continued CBN OMO liquidity sterilisation could keep money-market rates elevated and moderate the pace of further yield declines.
DOMESTIC MARKETS
Dangote Refinery Secures Approval for ₦2.15trillion IPO
The Securities and Exchange Commission approved Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s proposed ₦2.15trillion ($1.63billion) IPO, involving 4.10billion shares at ₦525 per share, making it potentially Africa’s largest-ever share offering. The refinery, which has a 650,000bpd nameplate capacity and has tested output above this level, is seeking to raise capital as Dangote plans to eventually double capacity to 1.40million bpd. The transaction is significant for both the capital market and the broader economy, as a successful listing could materially deepen NGX market capitalisation, attract institutional and foreign investors and provide exposure to one of Nigeria’s most strategically important industrial assets. The refinery is already contributing to a structural shift in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, with oil refining activity expanding 43.94% Year-on-Year in Q2 2026 and rising refined-product exports. However, investor focus will remain on valuation, crude-feedstock availability, margins and the refinery’s ability to convert its large capacity into sustainable earnings.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market extended its bullish momentum during the week. supported by renewed buying interest in large-cap stocks and stronger market liquidity. Investor sentiment was further supported by Nigeria’s planned return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index, with 31 Nigerian stocks included in the index series, raising expectations of increased foreign portfolio inflows.
The NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 2.36% and 2.40% to close the week at 246,992.44 and ₦159.56trillion respectively compared to at 241,298.47 and ₦155.83trillion last week.
A total turnover of 4.36 billion shares worth ₦210.33billion in 223,284 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 2.50 billion shares valued at ₦123.22billion that exchanged hands last week in 173,561 deals.
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed mixed, with the Banking, Oil & Gas, Insurance and Consumer Goods indices increasing by 3.58%, 9.10%, 3.85% and 3.52% respectively, while the Industrial Goods Indices declined by -0.35%.
Notable gainers this week were Royal Exchange Plc. and Champion Breweries Plc, while Beta Glass Plc. and Nascon Allied Industries Plc topped the losers list.
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
| S/N | Security | Ex-Div Date | Last Close Price | Dividend | Bonus | Ex-Div Price |
| 1 | Honeywell Flour Mill Plc | 31/08/2026 | ₦16.20 | ₦0.20 | NIL | ₦16.00 |
| 2 | University Press Plc | 31/08/2026 | ₦5.70 | ₦0.18 | NIL | ₦5.52 |
| 3 | Red Star Express Plc | 02/09/2026 | ₦15.95 | ₦0.45 | NIL | ₦15.50 |
SUPPLEMENTARY LISTING
Coronation Insurance Lists 4.53billion New Shares from ₦9.79billion Private Placement, expanding Issued Share Capital to 28.53billion Shares thereby increasing total issued and fully paid-up share capital by 18.90%, thus further strengthening its capital base.
Sterling Financial Holdings Lists 2.57billion New Shares from ₦10.29billion Private Placement, expanding Issued Share Capital to 68.50billion Shares thereby increasing total issued and fully paid-up share capital by 3.90%.
Sovereign Trust Insurance Lists 2.51billion New Shares from ₦5.02billion Rights Issue, expanding Issued Share Capital to 16.74billion Shares thereby increasing the total issued and fully paid-up share capital by 17.65%, thus strengthening its capital position and supporting business expansion.
Sunu Assurances Lists 2.08billion New Shares from ₦9.34billion Rights Issue, expanding Issued Share Capital to 7.89billion Shares thereby increasing total issued and fully paid-up share capital by 35.71%, significantly strengthening its capital base and financial capacity.
Eunisell Interlinked Lists 68.73million New Shares Following ₦200million Debt-to-Equity Conversion, expanding Issued Share Capital to 305.43million Shares thereby increasing the company’s total issued and fully paid-up share capital by 29.04%, from 236.70 million shares, reducing its debt obligations while strengthening its equity base.
Regency Alliance Insurance Lists 2.67billion New Shares from ₦3.20billion Rights Issue, Expanding Issued Share Capital to 18.68billion Shares thereby increasing total issued and fully paid-up share capital by 16.71%, hence further strengthening its capital base.
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to remain cautious with positive sentiment from Nigeria’s recent return to the Financial Times Stock Exchange Russell (FTSE Russell) Frontier Markets Index providing support for select stocks and sustained foreign investor interest.
CURRENCY
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1787.25 | -4.74% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1535.58 | -4.34% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦955.61 | -4.03% |
| (₦/$) | 04/09/2026 | 28/08/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | 1,321.21 | 1,337.29 | -1.20% |
| Parallel | 1,390.00 | 1,410.00 | -1.42% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| ROYAL EXCHANGE PLC. | 0.88 | 1.10 | 0.22 | 25.00% |
| CHAMPION BREWERIES PLC | 9.95 | 11.95 | 2.00 | 20.10% |
| NIGERIAN BREWERIES PLC | 69.40 | 82.45 | 13.05 | 18.80% |
| CORONATION INSURANCE PLC | 2.05 | 2.40 | 0.35 | 17.07% |
| MCNICHOLS CONSOLIDATED PLC | 4.50 | 5.25 | 0.75 | 16.67% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| BETA GLASS PLC. | 562.80 | 465.00 | -97.80 | -17.38% |
| NASCON ALLIED INDUSTRIES PLC | 195.00 | 164.00 | -31.00 | -15.90% |
| RED STAR EXPRESS PLC | 16.15 | 13.95 | -2.20 | -13.62% |
| R. T. BRISCOE (NIGERIA) PLC | 11.40 | 9.90 | -1.50 | -13.16% |
| UNIVERSITY PRESS PLC. | 5.70 | 5.00 | -0.70 | -12.28% |
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