GLOBAL ECONOMY
The U.S macroeconomic outlook cooled as the economy unexpectedly shed 23,000 jobs, missing forecasts and accompanied by severe downward revisions to prior months, which drove the labor force participation rate down to 61.40% and slowed wage growth to a disappointing 0.10% month-on-month (3.20% year-over-year). Headline unemployment rate ticked down to 4.10%, the decline was largely fueled by workers exiting the labor force, signaling underlying economic fragility. This weak employment data significantly scaled back market bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 42%, prompting the 10-year Treasury yield to drop 7bps to 4.60%. External trade conditions improved modestly as the goods and services trade deficit narrowed to $73.3billion in June 2026 from $77.6billion in May. This was driven primarily by a larger decline in imports, which fell by $7.3billion to $388.0billion, while exports decreased by $2.9billion to $314.7billion. The U.S. manufacturing activity strengthened considerably in July, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI rising to 55.6 from 53.3 in June, its highest reading since May 2022 and marking the 21st consecutive month of expansion. The improvement reflected stronger production and new orders, pointing to firmer industrial momentum despite continued uncertainty surrounding trade policy and input costs.
The UK macroeconomic landscape showed signs of stabilization, with the S&P Global Composite PMI expanding to 52.20 and the Services PMI rising to 52.10 marking the strongest private sector growth since April even as the Construction PMI remained in contraction at an improved 44.70. This economic resurgence, coupled with easing energy prices and cooling input cost inflation, reinforced the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and maintain a gradual monetary policy, helping the British pound strengthen to a three-week high of £1/$1.35 against a weakening US dollar.
The Eurozone macroeconomic landscape presented a mixed picture in mid-2026, with the Euro surging to a seven-week high above €1/$1.15 amid a weaker US dollar and the European Central Bank holding interest rates steady following its June hike. The Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 52.00 from 50.00, marking an eight-month high, while the Services PMI increased to 51.70 from 49.40 and the Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.90 from 51.40. The rebound was supported by stronger manufacturing output and a renewed expansion in services, while new orders increased at their fastest pace since November, pointing to improving domestic and external demand. Cooling energy costs after the US-Iran truce drove a 0.30% month-over-month decline in June Producer Prices the first drop in four months and pushed annual producer inflation down to 4.60%, which in turn helped the Services PMI rebound to a five-month high of 51.70 on improved margins and rising domestic demand.
China’s macroeconomic landscape in July 2026 highlighted a sharp divergence between robust external trade and cooling domestic momentum, with the trade surplus widening to a better-than-expected $112.50billion driven by a 23.90% year-over-year surge in exports to $397.85billion as manufacturers front-ran new 12.50% U.S. tariffs and capitalized on AI-tech demand. This strong outbound performance helped anchor the offshore Yuan at a multi-year high near $6.74 and pushed foreign exchange reserves slightly higher to $3.41trillion, even as import growth moderated to 27.50% amid softer internal demand. Consumer price inflation slowed to 0.50% year-on-year in July from 1.00% in June, while CPI declined 0.10% month-on-month, reflecting weaker food prices and subdued domestic demand. Core CPI, however, remained firmer at 0.90% year-on-year, suggesting that underlying price pressures were still more resilient than the headline figure indicated. Reflecting this domestic sluggishness, the RatingDog Composite PMI fell to a one-year low of 50.80 and the Services PMI dropped to 50.40, prompting the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to inject ¥500billion via three-month reverse repos to maintain ample banking liquidity. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical frictions intensified as Beijing retaliated against fresh U.S. trade restrictions and tech bans by tightening drone export controls and sanctioning American firms ahead of a planned September summit.
Next week’s macroeconomic outlook hinges on Strait of Hormuz negotiations and US inflation data to guide a divided Fed, alongside volatile AI earnings. Globally, investors will track growth and monetary shifts via rate decisions in Australia and Norway, plus key GDP and inflation releases across Europe and Asia.
GLOBAL MARKETS
U.S. major indices closed the week sharply higher, posting their strongest weekly performance since April as easing oil prices, a firmer jobs outlook, and resilient Big Tech earnings revived risk appetite. Last week, the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 indices increased by 2.96%, 5.19%, and 3.58% to 54,036.93, 26,690.62 and 7,757.64 respectively.
European indices closed at record highs as Oil prices retreated from recent peaks following renewed U.S.–Iran diplomacy, easing inflation fears and supporting a broad risk‑on move that lifted cyclicals, travel and industrial names. Compared to last week, the German DAX, CAC40 and FTSE 100 increased by 2.69%, 2.41%, 0.30% to 26,319.45, 8,714.93 and 10,901.09 respectively.
Asian markets were mixed, with China’s onshore bourses volatile as investors rotated between AI‑linked tech and defensives. Compared to last week, the Hang Seng index decreased by 0.84% to 25,668.03 while the Topix index increased by 1.79% to 4,074.93.
Next week, markets are likely to remain volatile but biased higher, with focus shifting to U.S CPI and retail sales data, European growth and inflation prints, and any further developments on U.S –Iran talks that could sway oil prices and inflation expectations. In Asia, investors will watch for follow‑through on China policy signals and whether the AI trade can stabilise after a choppy week of earnings and valuation reassessment.
DOMESTIC ECONOMY
Nigeria’s Debt Burden Deepens: Public Debt Hits ₦159.35trillion, Domestic Debt Service Jumps 20.30% to ₦3.14trillion Despite 31.50% Drop in External Debt Payments
Nigeria’s debt profile remained under pressure in Q1 2026 as total public debt edged up to ₦159.35trillion ($114.95billion) from ₦159.28trillion in December 2025, with domestic debt accounting for 54.85% (₦87.40trillion) and external debt 45.15% (₦71.95trillion), according to the Debt Management Office (DMO). While external debt service fell 31.50% year-on-year to $954.06million due to lower principal repayments and the absence of major Eurobond maturities, domestic debt servicing surged 20.30% to ₦3.14trillion, with interest payments consuming 94.56% of the total at ₦2.97trillion. Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) Bonds remained the dominant domestic debt instrument at ₦63.45trillion, representing 76.56% of Federal Government domestic debt, while multilateral lenders accounted for 45.96% of external debt and commercial creditors, largely Eurobonds, drove external debt-service costs. Since June 2023, Nigeria’s public debt has climbed sharply from ₦87.38trillion to ₦159.35trillion, reflecting continued reliance on borrowing amid fiscal deficits and rising financing costs. Adding to concerns, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that governments globally are increasingly resorting to “financial repression” policies to manage elevated debt burdens, noting that Nigeria’s debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio is projected at 34.68% by end-2026, while global public debt is expected to exceed 100.00% of GDP by 2029, underscoring mounting fiscal sustainability risks.
Private Sector Expands for Sixth Straight Month as PMI Hits 52.50, Cost Pressures Ease and Agriculture Leads Growth
Nigeria’s private sector sustained its growth momentum in July 2026, with PMI remaining in expansion territory at 52.50, marking the sixth consecutive month of business growth despite easing from 53.40 in June. Growth was driven by stronger customer demand, competitive pricing and new product launches, which boosted new orders and business activity across the economy. Encouragingly, input cost pressures eased, with purchase cost inflation falling to a five-month low, while selling price inflation slowed to its weakest pace since February. Supporting the positive trend, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Composite PMI rose to 51.10 points, reflecting expansion in economic activity, driven mainly by Agriculture (52.10 points) and Services (51.10 points). Agriculture extended its growth streak to 24 consecutive months, while Services returned to expansion after three months of contraction. However, the Industry sector remained below the growth threshold at 49.60 points, highlighting persistent weakness in manufacturing and industrial activity. Businesses also increased hiring and inventory levels, although employment growth slowed. Despite improving business conditions and moderating inflation, firms continue to face challenges from high fuel and raw material costs, exchange-rate risks, insecurity and elevated interest rates, even as headline inflation eased to 15.91% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May.
CBN Survey: 70.80% of Businesses Still Battle Multiple Taxation Despite Reforms as ₦92billion Digital Asset Sector Warns Against New Tax Rules
Nigeria’s business environment continues to face significant tax-related challenges despite recent reforms, with 70.80% of firms identifying multiple taxation as their biggest constraint in July 2026, according to the CBN Business Expectations Survey. Insecurity (69.70 points) and high interest rates (66.30 points) ranked next, highlighting persistent operating pressures even after the implementation of major tax reforms in January 2026 aimed at simplifying compliance and eliminating duplicate levies. While businesses expressed growing optimism about the Naira, expecting gradual appreciation against the US Dollar over the next six months, borrowing costs are expected to remain elevated, limiting access to affordable financing. Meanwhile, stakeholders in Nigeria’s $92billion virtual asset ecosystem have warned that newly introduced Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) digital asset tax rules could discourage investment and innovation. Industry players criticized the proposed 1.50% stamp duty on Naira-to-digital asset conversions and 1.00% withholding tax on the gross value of digital asset sales, arguing that taxing transaction volumes rather than actual profits could increase costs, push activity to offshore platforms, and weaken growth in Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest digital asset market. The concerns come as government tax revenues continue to rise, with Value Added Tax (VAT) collections reaching ₦2.42trillion in Q1 2026, up 17.06% year-on-year, underscoring the delicate balance between revenue generation and maintaining a competitive business environment.
Inflation Fears Ease, But Nigerians Delay Homes and Cars as Energy Costs Remain Top Pressure Point, CBN Survey Shows
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) July 2026 surveys show improving inflation sentiment, with businesses and households expecting price pressures to moderate over the next six months, following Nigeria’s headline inflation slowdown to 15.91% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May. However, energy costs remained the biggest inflation driver, scoring 74.10 points among firms and 61.90 points among households, ahead of insecurity, interest rates, transportation costs and exchange rate movements. Businesses reported a stronger inflation impact than households, with 60.90% of firms experiencing higher expenditure due to inflation versus 55.90% of households. Middle-income earners were the most affected, as 71.00% of Nigerians earning between ₦150,001 and ₦250,000 monthly perceived inflation as high, while micro businesses recorded the highest inflation concerns at 70.60%. Despite easing inflation expectations, consumers remain cautious, postponing major purchases, with buying conditions for motor vehicles (28.70 points), consumer durables (28.90 points) and property (30.00 points) remaining well below the confidence threshold. Consumer sentiment for house purchases and vehicle acquisitions stood at -56.90 and -56.30 respectively, reflecting weak purchasing power amid elevated borrowing costs. The survey also showed 63.40% of households believe faster inflation would worsen economic conditions, while the Monetary Policy Rate remains at 26.50%, highlighting the ongoing squeeze on consumer spending despite improving macroeconomic indicators.
Looking ahead Investors attention will center on the upcoming National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for further confirmation of Nigeria’s disinflation trend following the 15.91% inflation rate recorded in June 2026. Meanwhile, improving private sector activity and stronger business confidence may support market sentiment, although elevated energy costs, tight financing conditions, insecurity, and persistent foreign exchange demand remain key risks.
EUROBOND MARKET
The Nigerian sovereign Eurobond market maintained a positive trajectory during the week, supported by stronger demand and reduced sell-offs across the yield curve. Improved investor sentiment encouraged greater exposure to Nigeria’s Dollar-denominated debt securities, reflecting sustained confidence in the country’s external position and broader macroeconomic outlook. Consequently, the average sovereign Eurobond yield increased by 7bpsnweek-on-week to 6.88%, as investors continued to actively position within the market amid evolving global fixed-income conditions.
Next week, Nigeria’s sovereign Eurobond market is expected to remain cautiously bullish, with continued investor interest likely to provide support for bond prices. However, market liquidity conditions, domestic macroeconomic developments, and investors’ assessment of global interest rate expectations will remain key factors shaping yield movements and overall market sentiment.
ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
GOLD
Gold advanced during the week, closing at $4,343.43/oz, supported by weaker-than-expected United States labor market data, easing Treasury yields, continued central bank purchases, and sustained safe-haven demand amid lingering geopolitical concerns. The precious metal reached its highest level in nearly two months as investors increased expectations of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts following softer economic data. However, gains were tempered by ongoing uncertainty around inflation trends and the broader outlook for United States monetary policy.
OIL
Oil prices experienced heightened volatility during the week. Brent Crude closed at $82.21/bbl, while WTI Crude settled around $78.00 to $79.00/bbl. Prices initially found support from concerns surrounding Middle East supply routes and energy security risks, but later retreated as markets grew increasingly optimistic about a potential agreement to restore stability in the Strait of Hormuz and ease supply disruptions. Investors also weighed global demand concerns against ongoing OPEC+ production management policies.
ETF
Major Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) delivered mixed performance during the week. Commodity and precious metals ETFs outperformed broader market funds as investors sought defensive exposure amid economic uncertainty and changing interest rate expectations. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) gained strongly during the week, closing at approximately $398.47/share on 7 August 2026, reflecting the sharp rise in gold prices and renewed investor demand for safe-haven assets. Energy-focused ETFs remained volatile as oil prices fluctuated throughout the week.
Gold is expected to remain well supported by expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy stance, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, and resilient central bank demand. Nevertheless, any rebound in United States economic activity or renewed inflation pressures could moderate upside momentum. Oil prices are likely to remain volatile as markets monitor developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC+ production decisions, and global demand conditions. Meanwhile, investors may continue favouring precious metals and selective energy-focused ETFs as defensive allocations within portfolios amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment.
DOMESTIC MARKET
MONEY MARKET AND FIXED INCOME
Money market liquidity remained robust during the week. System liquidity opened at a credit of ₦5.03trillion, an increase of ₦2.05trillion owing CRR maintenance conducted by the Central Bank on Friday. Tuesday saw a decline of ₦2.15trillion to open the day at ₦2.88trillion following Monday’s OMO auction Settlement while Wednesday saw an increase of ₦967.38billion from Tuesday’s net OMO settlement. Thursday also saw marginal decline of ₦82.16billion and Friday opened with a credit of ₦4.08trillion, a increase of ₦316.34billion attributed to Thursday’s NTB maturity. Consequently, the Overnight Financing Rate (NOFR) remained unchanged week on week at 22.00%.
Next week attention would shift to the Nigerian treasury Bills Auction, where the DMO is offering ₦700billion across tenors. The auction is expected to be oversubscribed, supported by strong liquidity and sustained demand for risk-free instruments.
EQUITIES MARKET
The Nigerian equities market recorded an overall bullish performance as the NGX All-Share Index and Market Capitalization appreciated by 0.12% to close at 245,573.60 and ₦158.13trillion respectively, compared to 245,283.68 and ₦158.33trillion last week.
A total turnover of 5.36 billion shares worth ₦139.05billion in 261,869 deals was traded this week by investors on the floor of the Exchange, in contrast to a total of 5.12 billion shares valued at ₦404.76billion that exchanged hands last week in 285,223 deals..
On a sectoral basis, major sectors closed negative, as the Banking index closed positively, increasing by 2.33% while the Oil and Gas, Industrial Goods, Insurance and Consumer Goods indices closed negatively, decreasing by –0.03%, -0.17%, -3.31% and -1.75% respectively.
Notable gainers this week were AVA Capital PLC and FCMB Group PLC, while Thomas Wyatt Nigeria PLC and Trans-Nationwide Express PLC topped the losers list.
PRICE ADJUSTMENTS
| Security | Ex-Div Date | Last Close Price | Dividend | Bonus | Ex-Div Price |
| UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC | 03/08/2025 | ₦147.95 | ₦2.00 | NIL | ₦145.95 |
| VFD GROUP PLC | 04/08/2026 | ₦11.60 | ₦0.24 | NIL | ₦11.36 |
Next week, the Nigerian equities market is expected to remain mixed as investors balance profit-taking activities with renewed interest in fundamentally sound stocks amid the ongoing corporate earnings season.
CURRENCY
| (₦/$1) | 07/08/2026 | 31/07/2026 | W-O-W% |
| NAFEM | ₦1,365.69 | ₦1,368.22 | -0.19% |
| Parallel | ₦1,420.00 | ₦1,400.00 | +1.43% |
| Currency Pair | Exchange Rate | Change |
| GBP/NGN | ₦1,874.28 | +0.16% |
| EUR/NGN | ₦1,605.23 | +0.33% |
| CAD/NGN | ₦996.67 | +0.65% |
TOP GAINERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| AVACAP | 8.25 | 11.00 | 2.75 | 33.33% |
| FCMB | 11.45 | 12.95 | 1.50 | 13.10% |
| FIRSTHOLDCO | 129.55 | 145.40 | 15.85 | 12.23% |
| FTGINSURE | 2.34 | 2.60 | 0.26 | 11.11% |
| LINKASSURE | 1.60 | 1.77 | 0.17 | 10.63% |
TOP LOSERS
| TICKER | OPEN | CLOSE | CHANGE | % |
| THOMASWY | 4.38 | 3.21 | -1.17 | -26.71% |
| TRANSEXPR | 2.82 | 2.15 | -0.67 | -23.76% |
| CMFC | 3.88 | 3.00 | -0.88 | -22.68% |
| ETI | 88.95 | 72.10 | -16.85 | -18.94% |
| CONHALLPLC | 8.36 | 6.98 | -1.38 | -16.51% |
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